ZIPS projection story...

[caulfield12]

Getz WAS THE HEAD of the developmental staff that was such a miserable failure that it somehow got them to 121 losses. He should have been fired, not promoted.

Now the excuse will be he wasn’t provided any resources or any of his own hand-picked guys to work with.

Burger succeeded, but mostly after being abandoned by the team after multiple Achilles’ injuries…his wife and Gavin Sheets bought Traject on their own.

Madrigal and Steele Walker both flopped, Nick as much on talent/injury side as clubhouse fit (born again Christianity, which was also an issue with LaRoche and son).

Andrew Vaughn never developed…until he joined a better organization, same with Sheets’ 2025 numbers.

Crochet was a huge success, and might be his best trade as well.  How much of it was Crochet’s own determination to start, that will be left up to the history books to determine.

2018/2019 drafts were disappointing overall.

The case of Colson Montgomery has been much debated…although as of this moment Getz can claim it as his second biggest win after Crochet.  Ofc projections for 2026 are all over the place on him, classic high ceiling/low floor outcome.

 

In the end, those doing the drafting will be blamed I’m sure.  Or Hahn’s misallocation of resources. Or KW’s benignly negligent supervision when he had already seemingly moved on to the next stage of life while still collecting a large salary.

The fact once again still remains that many of the players Getz failed to develop led directly to the abysmal results from 2023-25…and one of the five worst three year stretches for a team in MLB history.  The second/third waves of talent never arriving is what essentially ended the 2016-2019 rebuilding effort before it really could take off.

 

Most importantly, he has a pretty abysmal record of unearthing sleeper prospects in later rounds...heck we have a long run of 95% failures in the second round or on supplemental picks.

Compare to CLE or Milwaukee on this critical area for small and market teams.

 

Edited Sunday at 01:32 AM by caulfield12

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

His free agency moves and trades since being named GM are enough to know he wasn’t ready for the promotion.

Wasn't ready, or qualified, and certainly hasn't proven he's capable.

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Getz WAS THE HEAD of the developmental staff that was such a miserable failure that it somehow got them to 121 losses. He should have been fired, not promoted.

Now the excuse will be he wasn’t provided any resources or any of his own hand-picked guys to work with.

Burger succeeded, but mostly after being abandoned by the team after multiple Achilles’ injuries…his wife and Gavin Sheets bought Traject on their own.

Madrigal and Steele Walker both flopped, Nick as much on talent/injury side as clubhouse fit (born again Christianity, which was also an issue with LaRoche and son).

Andrew Vaughn never developed…until he joined a better organization, same with Sheets’ 2025 numbers.

Crochet was a huge success, and might be his best trade as well.  How much of it was Crochet’s own determination to start, that will be left up to the history books to determine.

2018/2019 drafts were disappointing overall.

The case of Colson Montgomery has been much debated…although as of this moment Getz can claim it as his second biggest win after Crochet.  Ofc projections for 2026 are all over the place on him, classic high ceiling/low floor outcome.

 

In the end, those doing the drafting will be blamed I’m sure.  Or Hahn’s misallocation of resources. Or KW’s benignly negligent supervision when he had already seemingly moved on to the next stage of life while still collecting a large salary.

The fact once again still remains that many of the players Getz failed to develop led directly to the abysmal results from 2023-25…and one of the five worst three year stretches for a team in MLB history.  The second/third waves of talent never arriving is what essentially ended the 2016-2019 rebuilding effort before it really could take off.

 

Valiant effort. I don't see any of this as evidence. I think the fact that as soon as he became GM, Getz did a massive upgrade of their minor league system - is evidence that he wasn't granted the budget or ability to stay on par with the rest of the league. Calling that an excuse doesn't invalidate that reality. 

Hostetler's drafts weren't very good. I seem to remember every one of his 4 first rounders being panned at the time. Most of what I read about Collins when drafted was that he had a serious issue with swing mechanics that was hard to rework. Burger and Vaughn were 1B waiting to happen, and Madrigal was a slappy hitting gamer. Madrigal wasn't a flop, BTW, he produced offensively in his time on the Sox. He was not a good defender. And he couldn't stay healthy. Neither was Steele Walker who graduated up to high-A in his 1st full season with the Sox before he was traded. Burger wasn't "abandoned". The minor leagues were cancelled in 2020, and the Sox approved of him playing in a college summer league. They then invited him to their alternate training site. 

Yes, the lack of a minor league system contributed to the precipitous drop of the 2020-2021 "dynasty". Their system was poor mostly due to a non-existent international presence. One could blame Hostetler for his drafts, but a good bunch of players made it to the majors from the 2018 class. His 1st rounders were not good. Any 2nd or 3rd rounders who showed promise were quickly traded. They didn't even have a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2015 from signing David Robertson and Melky Cabrera the winter before. 

So yeah, Getz was there for all of that, but maybe he had a good story for all of that to tell JR. To blame this on Getz, though, is circumstantial. 

Edited Sunday at 02:20 AM by WestEddy

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Valiant effort. I don't see any of this as evidence. I think the fact that as soon as he became GM, Getz did a massive upgrade of their minor league system - is evidence that he wasn't granted the budget or ability to stay on par with the rest of the league. Calling that an excuse doesn't invalidate that reality. 

Hostetler's drafts weren't very good. I seem to remember every one of his 4 first rounders being panned at the time. Most of what I read about Collins when drafted was that he had a serious issue with swing mechanics that was hard to rework. Burger and Vaughn were 1B waiting to happen, and Madrigal was a slappy hitting gamer. Madrigal wasn't a flop, BTW, he produced offensively in his time on the Sox. He was not a good defender. And he couldn't stay healthy. Neither was Steele Walker who graduated up to high-A in his 1st full season with the Sox before he was traded. Burger wasn't "abandoned". The minor leagues were cancelled in 2020, and the Sox approved of him playing in a college summer league. They then invited him to their alternate training site. 

Yes, the lack of a minor league system contributed to the precipitous drop of the 2020-2021 "dynasty". Their system was poor mostly due to a non-existent international presence. One could blame Hostetler for his drafts, but a good bunch of players made it to the majors from the 2018 class. His 1st rounders were not good. Any 2nd or 3rd rounders who showed promise were quickly traded. They didn't even have a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2015 from signing David Robertson and Melky Cabrera the winter before. 

So yeah, Getz was there for all of that, but maybe he had a good story for all of that to tell JR. To blame this on Getz, though, is circumstantial. 

To absolve the head of minor league development for a complete lack of minor league player development is criminal.

[WestEddy]

32 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

To absolve the head of minor league development for a complete lack of minor league player development is criminal.

then call the police. 

[caulfield12]

45 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Valiant effort. I don't see any of this as evidence. I think the fact that as soon as he became GM, Getz did a massive upgrade of their minor league system - is evidence that he wasn't granted the budget or ability to stay on par with the rest of the league. Calling that an excuse doesn't invalidate that reality. 

Hostetler's drafts weren't very good. I seem to remember every one of his 4 first rounders being panned at the time. Most of what I read about Collins when drafted was that he had a serious issue with swing mechanics that was hard to rework. Burger and Vaughn were 1B waiting to happen, and Madrigal was a slappy hitting gamer. Madrigal wasn't a flop, BTW, he produced offensively in his time on the Sox. He was not a good defender. And he couldn't stay healthy. Neither was Steele Walker who graduated up to high-A in his 1st full season with the Sox before he was traded. Burger wasn't "abandoned". The minor leagues were cancelled in 2020, and the Sox approved of him playing in a college summer league. They then invited him to their alternate training site. 

Yes, the lack of a minor league system contributed to the precipitous drop of the 2020-2021 "dynasty". Their system was poor mostly due to a non-existent international presence. One could blame Hostetler for his drafts, but a good bunch of players made it to the majors from the 2018 class. His 1st rounders were not good. Any 2nd or 3rd rounders who showed promise were quickly traded. They didn't even have a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2015 from signing David Robertson and Melky Cabrera the winter before. 

So yeah, Getz was there for all of that, but maybe he had a good story for all of that to tell JR. To blame this on Getz, though, is circumstantial. 

Tatis Robert and Abreu represent the biggest fWAR combination from intl players originating with one organization 2013-2023.  Not to mention Moncada and Jimenez were both top international signees with BOS and CHC.

That said Paddy was pretty bad after the Robert deal, as Norge Vera was the biggest move and they were severely limited in spending compared to other organizations LAD SDP TEX et.

They were also crippledny the lack of a coherent Dominican strategy/infrastructure dating back to Dave Wilder (2007).

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

then call the police. 

Carrot Top, Dice Clay and Kathy Griffin might be better...

[77 Hitmen]

On 11/28/2025 at 3:26 PM, WBWSF said:

Brodie Brazil has a very interesting new video on Youtube. He maintains the White Sox are a sleeping giant of a franchise.

 

On 11/28/2025 at 5:59 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

They will be when Ishbia takes control.

Until then JR says, "You'll get nothing and like it!"

That was basically his point - this franchise could be a powerhouse if run the right way.  But that's certainly not the case right now.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 11/28/2025 at 9:17 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

I was very happy when they won in 2005 and have been accused in the past of setting the bar to low because to me just having a winning season (at least 82 wins) is a positive on the year.

That's what JR has done to the fan base, just having a winning season is a reason to celebrate. And it wasn't always like this, there was a time when he had earned the benefit of the doubt. From 1981 through 2006 they had 16 winning years and most times were in contention for the division.

Since 2007? One of the worst teams in baseball. 

My opinion or comments shouldn't impact you one iota. Trying to "ruin" it for everyone? Since when do you give a s#$% about what I say or my opinion?

 

   

I dont understand you Lip. That 25 year period from 1981-2006 you say earned JR the benefit of the doubt. Why ? He's a big market owner playing in a division with small market teams. How many years during that time did the Sox win playoffs rounds ? 1 year. Thats it . 2005 won all 3 rounds to win the World Series.  Reinsdorf is the carrot dangler by his own admission. 

Anyone working under him has had their hands tied behind their backs because of his meddling. 

Your tirade about Getz is especially troubling. Were there politics involved in hiring Getz? Probably but all JR saw was a cheap, inexperience option who would have to work under him while he was in estate planning mode and stripping down the Sox for his eventual successor to help pay off debts so his sons could make as much as possible after he died and the sale to the Ishbia's becomes final. I highly doubt Getz held much sway over JR. Any politicing Getz did JR probably wanted to stay in house , hire cheap and inexperienced all along. 

Do you honestly think any GM hired by JR could have not sucked ? Seriously under the circumstances with JR, Hahn and Williams in charge do you think Getz had any real decision making power before he became GM ? 

After he became GM has he got any money to alter the 26 man roster drastically in any way ? Some would say yes he drastically altered in 2024 but the majority of the damage was already done before he was named GM. Many of the changes he's made are mostly new hires for modernizing communication, culture and player development which can be done with funds that previously would be put into player payroll which is why player development has sucked under JR without any organisational philosophy reflected in the people you hire. What Getz has done to modernize may not be felt for years in regards to reestablishing international ties to the DR and Asia. All this is being done for the new owner's benefit and to establish a sound structural base and the future success of the franchise. The Crochet trade so far is working out very well. The Rule 5 draft last year might be the best one in it's history . They're using their new tools and hires to help with mechanics and Colson Montgomery & Crochet were 2 prime examples. If Getz sucks because he was put in a no win situation and he hasnt put the Sox in the playoffs in his 2 full years as GM of a franchise that was in a coma when he was hired then so be it. But now the patient is no longer in a coma and and will have a new "Steward" soon to nurse it back to full health.

I've said it before but most podcasters doing Sox content do not continue to have the jaded, jaundiced viewpoint that you and others here on Tox-Talk do towards Getz. He's making an honest effort with pitiful resources to put the franchise in a position to do some good even if he gets fired under new Stewardship. Why aren't you on any of these podcasts ?  You're not an unknown. Why aren't these podcasters contributing members on Tox-Talk ? Sox fans belittle the Sox more and better than any Cub fans do. James Fox used to contribute more than he does now because he's usually pretty fair but I think he's found it increasingly difficult to say much of anything positive because of backlash against it here. If I'm wrong maybe he'll say so.

 

Edited Tuesday at 02:11 PM by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WestEddy]

46 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Tox-Talk

Bravo. 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I dont understand you Lip. That 25 year period from 1981-2006 you say earned JR the benefit of the doubt. Why ? He's a big market owner playing in a division with small market teams. How many years during that time did the Sox win playoffs rounds ? 1 year. Thats it . 2005 won all 3 rounds to win the World Series.  Reinsdorf is the carrot dangler by his own admission. 

Anyone working under him has had their hands tied behind their backs because of his meddling. 

Your tirade about Getz is especially troubling. Were there politics involved in hiring Getz? Probably but all JR saw was a cheap, inexperience option who would have to work under him while he was in estate planning mode and stripping down the Sox for his eventual successor to help pay off debts so his sons could make as much as possible after he died and the sale to the Ishbia's becomes final. I highly doubt Getz held much sway over JR. Any politicing Getz did JR probably wanted to stay in house , hire cheap and inexperienced all along. 

Do you honestly think any GM hired by JR could have not sucked ? Seriously under the circumstances with JR, Hahn and Williams in charge do you think Getz had any real decision making power before he became GM ? 

After he became GM has he got any money to alter the 26 man roster drastically in any way ? Some would say yes he drastically altered in 2024 but the majority of the damage was already done before he was named GM. Many of the changes he's made are mostly new hires for modernizing communication, culture and player development which can be done with funds that previously would be put into player payroll which is why player development has sucked under JR without any organisational philosophy reflected in the people you hire. What Getz has done to modernize may not be felt for years in regards to reestablishing international ties to the DR and Asia. All this is being done for the new owner's benefit and to establish a sound structural base and the future success of the franchise. The Crochet trade so far is working out very well. The Rule 5 draft last year might be the best one in it's history . They're using their new tools and hires to help with mechanics and Colson Montgomery & Crochet were 2 prime examples. If Getz sucks because he was put in a no win situation and he hasnt put the Sox in the playoffs in his 2 full years as GM of a franchise that was in a coma when he was hired then so be it. But now the patient is no longer in a coma and and will have a new "Steward" soon to nurse it back to full health.

I've said it before but most podcasters doing Sox content do not continue to have the jaded, jaundiced viewpoint that you and others here on Tox-Talk do towards Getz. He's making an honest effort with pitiful resources to put the franchise in a position to do some good even if he gets fired under new Stewardship. Why aren't you on any of these podcasts ?  You're not an unknown. Why aren't these podcasters contributing members on Tox-Talk ? Sox fans belittle the Sox more and better than any Cub fans do. James Fox used to contribute more than he does now because he's usually pretty fair but I think he's found it increasingly difficult to say much of anything positive because of backlash against it here. If I'm wrong maybe he'll say so.

 

A 5 paragraph personal attack all because he doesn't agree with you.  Open-mindedness my ass.  A few of you are absolutely determined to ruin this page, and every discussion that you don't agree with,  all because you don't get your way.  Tox-Talk indeed.  Back when you could actually stick to debating a topic, you were a decent poster.  This whole personal attacker thing just tears everything down.  If you want an echo chamber, just say so.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

On 11/29/2025 at 10:20 AM, nrockway said:

ZIPS is even less useful than that projection that a bunch of high schoolers came up with. Its predictive value is basically nil, particularly for young players, and is even worse at determining team records. it surprises me that Fangraphs still publishes it

Show me the r value of ZIPs lack-of-predictive qualities, and also show me that the variance for youth is statistically significant when compared to others.

It surprises me that people still post stuff like you do with very little understanding of what ZIPS does and with very little evidence to refute it.

Of course it shouldn't be used for projecting records - it normalizes and projects playing time in a way that doesn't equate directly to wins and losses and isn't actually correlated directly to expected playing time. 

Edited Tuesday at 04:19 PM by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Lip Man 1]

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I dont understand you Lip. That 25 year period from 1981-2006 you say earned JR the benefit of the doubt. Why ? He's a big market owner playing in a division with small market teams. How many years during that time did the Sox win playoffs rounds ? 1 year. Thats it . 2005 won all 3 rounds to win the World Series.  Reinsdorf is the carrot dangler by his own admission. 

Anyone working under him has had their hands tied behind their backs because of his meddling. 

Your tirade about Getz is especially troubling. Were there politics involved in hiring Getz? Probably but all JR saw was a cheap, inexperience option who would have to work under him while he was in estate planning mode and stripping down the Sox for his eventual successor to help pay off debts so his sons could make as much as possible after he died and the sale to the Ishbia's becomes final. I highly doubt Getz held much sway over JR. Any politicing Getz did JR probably wanted to stay in house , hire cheap and inexperienced all along. 

Do you honestly think any GM hired by JR could have not sucked ? Seriously under the circumstances with JR, Hahn and Williams in charge do you think Getz had any real decision making power before he became GM ? 

After he became GM has he got any money to alter the 26 man roster drastically in any way ? Some would say yes he drastically altered in 2024 but the majority of the damage was already done before he was named GM. Many of the changes he's made are mostly new hires for modernizing communication, culture and player development which can be done with funds that previously would be put into player payroll which is why player development has sucked under JR without any organisational philosophy reflected in the people you hire. What Getz has done to modernize may not be felt for years in regards to reestablishing international ties to the DR and Asia. All this is being done for the new owner's benefit and to establish a sound structural base and the future success of the franchise. The Crochet trade so far is working out very well. The Rule 5 draft last year might be the best one in it's history . They're using their new tools and hires to help with mechanics and Colson Montgomery & Crochet were 2 prime examples. If Getz sucks because he was put in a no win situation and he hasnt put the Sox in the playoffs in his 2 full years as GM of a franchise that was in a coma when he was hired then so be it. But now the patient is no longer in a coma and and will have a new "Steward" soon to nurse it back to full health.

I've said it before but most podcasters doing Sox content do not continue to have the jaded, jaundiced viewpoint that you and others here on Tox-Talk do towards Getz. He's making an honest effort with pitiful resources to put the franchise in a position to do some good even if he gets fired under new Stewardship. Why aren't you on any of these podcasts ?  You're not an unknown. Why aren't these podcasters contributing members on Tox-Talk ? Sox fans belittle the Sox more and better than any Cub fans do. James Fox used to contribute more than he does now because he's usually pretty fair but I think he's found it increasingly difficult to say much of anything positive because of backlash against it here. If I'm wrong maybe he'll say so.

 

Well for one thing Cali at least JR was trying to win back in that time period. One example was the period between 1981-1983. Every year the organization made the moves and/or spent the money bringing in good players:

81-Fisk and Luzinski

82-Kemp and Paciorek

83-Bannister and Cruz

Given they also had 16 winning seasons in that time period is why I thought JR got the benefit of the doubt. 

Since the start of the 2007 season, the results speak for themselves. 

You're reasons regarding Getz are valid he's under real handicaps. But also look at what he hasn't done? All the money literally thrown away on his acquisitions where other "small market" teams have had better results with their bargain basement signings. His lack of success as head of the minor league system for all those years also is a major red flag. (In all that time, even with a cheap owner, they couldn't produce any solid players?

And just the way he was hired, fair or unfairly leaves a bad taste in the mouths of Sox fans including myself.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

34 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Well for one thing Cali at least JR was trying to win back in that time period. One example was the period between 1981-1983. Every year the organization made the moves and/or spent the money bringing in good players:

81-Fisk and Luzinski

82-Kemp and Paciorek

83-Bannister and Cruz

Given they also had 16 winning seasons in that time period is why I thought JR got the benefit of the doubt. 

Since the start of the 2007 season, the results speak for themselves. 

You're reasons regarding Getz are valid he's under real handicaps. But also look at what he hasn't done? All the money literally thrown away on his acquisitions where other "small market" teams have had better results with their bargain basement signings. His lack of success as head of the minor league system for all those years also is a major red flag. (In all that time, even with a cheap owner, they couldn't produce any solid players?

And just the way he was hired, fair or unfairly leaves a bad taste in the mouths of Sox fans including myself.

 

All money thrown away on his acquisitions  While other small market teams fare better ? This is rather hard to prove don't you think ? How much did he get and where did it go especially in 2024 and on who was it spend and please compare to the same for other small market teams. Not only player spending but please also enlighten me on new front office hirees . equipment, computers, data, scouts and anything else all those teams  and the Sox did.

Was there any way whatsoever it was a signifcant enough amount in 2024 to prevent another 100 loss season and set a new course for the franchise ? Maybe he chose to spend on restructuring the foundation . You speak as if contention was a possibility while they were in tear down mode in the 1st full year of the rebuild under an owner planning nothing except lining his sons pockets after his death.

Did you belive Jerry's horseshit claim that he hired Getz to turn things around as quickly ? You were conned.Trusting JR was always a con as far as establishing a winning franchise with a foundation of a good farm system and modern tactics and data management. You and I both know he cared nothing about developing prospects or the DR which provided more talent than any other foreign country  to the MLB talent pool. 

As far as that bad taste in your mouth and representing all those sharing that bad taste, take it up with Jerry. Your " source naming Getz as Brutus stabbing muliple Caesars in the back in the Sox Ides of July was likely one of those who Getz fired. People with axes to grind always seek out a sympathetic voice. JR is the villain here for over 40 years. Spending on player payroll for a few yesrs while ignoring the foundation may have been something he thought was he had to do but it was misguided except for the Miracle of 2005. He built a house of cards that had a quick rise and a quick fall. 

Edited Tuesday at 06:41 PM by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Lip Man 1]

15 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

All money thrown away on his acquisitions  While other small market teams fare better ? This is rather hard to prove don't you think ? How much did he get and where did it go especially in 2024 and on who was it spend and please compare to the same for other small market teams. Not only player spending but please also enlighten me on new front office hirees . equipment, computers, data, scouts and anything else all those teams  and the Sox did.

Was there any way whatsoever it was a signifcant enough amount in 2024 to prevent another 100 loss season and set a new course for the franchise ? Maybe he chose to spend on restructuring the foundation . You speak as if contention was a possibility while they were in tear down mode in the 1st full year of the rebuild under an owner planning nothing except lining his sons pockets after his death.

Did you belive Jerry's horseshit claim that he hired Getz to turn things around as quickly ? You were conned.Trusting JR was always a con as far as establishing a winning franchise with a foundation of a good farm system and modern tactics and data management. You and I both know he cared nothing about developing prospects or the DR which provided more talent than any other foreign country  to the MLB talent pool. 

Didn't believe it for a second.

My "trust" of JR was never solid, all I was saying was that based on results in the time period from 81-06 he earned the benefit of the doubt. 

Since 2007 the benefit went by the boards.  

[almagest]

13 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Didn't believe it for a second.

My "trust" of JR was never solid, all I was saying was that based on results in the time period from 81-06 he earned the benefit of the doubt. 

Since 2007 the benefit went by the boards.  

Not sure I'd count the 80s. Signing Fisk was great, but they only had 3 above .500 seasons and were flat out bad from 86-90. Also I don't think Reinsdorf had anything to do with '83, as Hemond had been the GM since the early 70s. Reinsdorf ended up chasing him out, too. 1990-2008 were very good, with four division titles, a WS win, and a bunch of competent teams that had a shot.

Edited Tuesday at 06:47 PM by almagest

[Jake]

I don't have any problem with Colson projected at 2.2 WAR. Frankly, I assumed it must have been a lot lower seeing the commentary here before checking the numbers myself. If I had to take the over or under, I'd probably go under. There's just so much risk in any baseball player. I think it's a credit to ZiPS that it didn't get even more hung up on Colson's two full seasons of shoddy AAA production. I hope Colson kicks absolute ass but there's real risk with him, beyond that of a generic young hitter. He swings and misses a lot even when the going is good. I would worry about scouts catching up with him. And the bad play in AAA really did happen and the fact that there's no clear explanation about how he turned it on in MLB really makes me wonder how likely it is that he falls back into mediocrity. 

As for the comparison with 2025 ZiPS, worth noting that last year's projections came after Sox had already signed a few vets to help cover the corner outfield, 3B, SP, and catcher. Sox have massive holes in the corner OF right now and arguably somewhere in the 1B/DH/3B region too. Not to mention the whole pitching staff. I don't know what the Sox will do exactly, but I suspect they will add something, somewhere via free agency. That's not reflected here yet. 

I also find it hilarious how much ZiPS likes Sam Antonacci. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

A 5 paragraph personal attack all because he doesn't agree with you.  Open-mindedness my ass.  A few of you are absolutely determined to ruin this page, and every discussion that you don't agree with,  all because you don't get your way.  Tox-Talk indeed.  Back when you could actually stick to debating a topic, you were a decent poster.  This whole personal attacker thing just tears everything down.  If you want an echo chamber, just say so.

Spare me your gibberish. As always you stretch the truth as if it was made of rubber. 5 paragraph personal attack ? I disagree with assessment of the leadership of this franchise during JRs ownership and Getz ' so far, brief time as GM and brief time spend with multiple bosses and no real power in his previous role because of the lack of a foundation that JR , Hahn or Kenny Williams failed to build. 

It's a baseball argument pure and simple covering many many years that cannot be done in any short way that I am aware. 

He thinks Getz sucks, I do not and gave sound reasons as to why not and Lip said as much. I hold no animosity towards him . I respect Lip for all he has done as a Sox historian. He poured his heart and soul into covering a team he loved and they let him down and like any fan he has a limited knowledge of the whole truth as do I which is why I find it difficult to scapegoat anyone but the guy at the top. I'm sorry I cant create narratives out of thin air that supports  the whole everything Sox related sucks routine like you do. You has quite the knack for fiction. 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

36 minutes ago, almagest said:

Not sure I'd count the 80s. Signing Fisk was great, but they only had 3 above .500 seasons and were flat out bad from 86-90. Also I don't think Reinsdorf had anything to do with '83, as Hemond had been the GM since the early 70s. Reinsdorf ended up chasing him out, too. 1990-2008 were very good, with four division titles, a WS win, and a bunch of competent teams that had a shot.

4 division titles in 18 years, 3 of which didnt result in advancing to the next round and 1 year in 94 that JR sabotaged his own team's shot at a championship and the white flag trade in 97.

[Lip Man 1]

51 minutes ago, almagest said:

Not sure I'd count the 80s. Signing Fisk was great, but they only had 3 above .500 seasons and were flat out bad from 86-90. Also I don't think Reinsdorf had anything to do with '83, as Hemond had been the GM since the early 70s. Reinsdorf ended up chasing him out, too. 1990-2008 were very good, with four division titles, a WS win, and a bunch of competent teams that had a shot.

They had four years above .500 between 81 and 85. 81,82,83 and 85. JR was still the owner and could have said no to the deals that brought in Bannister as a free agent, outbidding the Yankees which got Steinbrenner PO'd, and the trade for Cruz so he has to get some credit.

I'm the very last person to talk in a positive manner about JR but fair is fair and there was a time period where he actually cared.

Those days are long gone and the way he has destroyed the franchise can't be excued in any way, shape or form.  

[nrockway]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Show me the r value of ZIPs lack-of-predictive qualities, and also show me that the variance for youth is statistically significant when compared to others.

It surprises me that people still post stuff like you do with very little understanding of what ZIPS does and with very little evidence to refute it.

Of course it shouldn't be used for projecting records - it normalizes and projects playing time in a way that doesn't equate directly to wins and losses and isn't actually correlated directly to expected playing time. 

https://www.ai.uga.edu/sites/default/files/inline-files/lyle_arlo.pdf

https://www.getbigboard.com/evaluating-2019-projections/

there's plenty of evidence that it doesn't work very well.

[chitownsportsfan]

ZIPS just isn't that accurate. I'm sure there are better internal projection systems but Dan himself has talked about its weaknesses. It works fairly well for established MLB players but it has no idea what to do with minor league data.

The ZIPS projections for a team full of vets like LA will be fairly accurate. For a team that most guys have under 4 years service time like Chicago not even close.