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OD 26 Man Roster Projection


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2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I'd argue it did not turn out great for the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. We backed ourselves into a corner and had to trade him because he only had 2 years left BECAUSE we threw him into the bullpen (and left him there).

He was burning service time while injured with TJ surgery. He was also injured frequently before TJ surgery. 

TJ surgery might've turned his career around. Recovery workouts turned him into a beast. He was just bigger and stronger when he had his unexpected breakout. 

The path he eventually got on couldn't have worked out much better for him. 

There's no way to predict if alternate paths get him to how good he is now any earlier. 

 

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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3 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I'd argue it did not turn out great for the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. We backed ourselves into a corner and had to trade him because he only had 2 years left BECAUSE we threw him into the bullpen (and left him there).

Yep

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A point I haven’t seen mentioned is Smith needs to develop his changeup. He used it rarely last year but a third pitch/something for right handed batters is a key to him making it as a starting pitcher. He can work on it in AA AAA.  If he is in MLB bullpen, he probably never throws it and thus doesn’t develop. 

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32 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I know I'm in the minority...but I'd like to think we're going to be competitive.  That opening day 26 isn't all that easy to trim anymore.  Our division is winnable with a tweak here and there.  For sure, we should be entertaining.

Better / not terrible / entertaining…sure.  Good enough to rush prospects to fill major league roles when we have numerous long-term holes in the rotation?  Not even close IMO.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Better / not terrible / entertaining…sure.  Good enough to rush prospects to fill major league roles when we have numerous long-term holes in the rotation?  Not even close IMO.

Different opinions are why they make both chocolate and vanilla.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Better / not terrible / entertaining…sure.  Good enough to rush prospects to fill major league roles when we have numerous long-term holes in the rotation?  Not even close IMO.

I'd think you'd have to have Colson and Murakami both hitting 30+, Vargas, Meidroth, Quero, Teel and Baldwin all come into their own, Acuña/Pereira contributing, Shane Smith and Davis Martin both become 3+ WAR pitchers, Burke and Kay at least 2 WAR, the bullpen gels and becomes an asset, and then, maybe you're a .500 team? Then maybe you rush one of Noah Schultz or Hagen Smith to be a lefty specialist for a couple of months?

But even if everything breaks right and this team is 52-48 towards the end of July and Detroit isn't pulling away, they sure ain't trading for anybody. So yeah, they might convert somebody to keep the balloon in the air. 

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4 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I'd argue it did not turn out great for the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. We backed ourselves into a corner and had to trade him because he only had 2 years left BECAUSE we threw him into the bullpen (and left him there).

This.  We COULD have had him six plus years as a starter.

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10 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I'd think you'd have to have Colson and Murakami both hitting 30+, Vargas, Meidroth, Quero, Teel and Baldwin all come into their own, Acuña/Pereira contributing, Shane Smith and Davis Martin both become 3+ WAR pitchers, Burke and Kay at least 2 WAR, the bullpen gels and becomes an asset, and then, maybe you're a .500 team? Then maybe you rush one of Noah Schultz or Hagen Smith to be a lefty specialist for a couple of months?

But even if everything breaks right and this team is 52-48 towards the end of July and Detroit isn't pulling away, they sure ain't trading for anybody. So yeah, they might convert somebody to keep the balloon in the air. 

We have already seen (Murakami) that the WS have a few surprises up their sleeve.  It's more fun to expect the unexpected than to give up before the season starts.  There will be time enough to B***h and complain if and when things turn bad.

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2 hours ago, poppysox said:

We have already seen (Murakami) that the WS have a few surprises up their sleeve.  It's more fun to expect the unexpected than to give up before the season starts.  There will be time enough to B***h and complain if and when things turn bad.

I apologize. You are correct. A baseball season is about rooting for a winner. If and when they don't reach what I'm rooting for, I think I'm generally one of the last to b**** and complain. 

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2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Pardon if this was mentioned already, but I just saw on mlbtr that Vasil is preparing as a starter?

He's been told he'll be given a shot to earn a spot in the rotation. SoxMachine thinks it'll be more about spot-starting. 

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14 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

In a year where we aren’t going to be serious contenders.  Do the right thing and let him build up his innings in the minors as a SP.

Or . . . it's a game in this upcoming late September and Hagen Smith enters in the 8th inning and gets 3 out (two by strikeouts), and then turns the game over to Seranthony Dominguez, who nails down the win in the 9th and the White Sox clinch the final Wild Card spot. 

I think this is very possible; I will admit unlikely, but it is possible NOW.  I expect the Sox to win, at least 75 games, and I believe will be serious contenders for a wild card spot. 

I expect  . . . 

The SS/ 2B duo of Colson and Sosa to hit 60 homeruns this year. 

60 home runs from the combination of Teel, Vargus, and Baldwin.

Shane Smith to win 14 games, doubling his total from last year (this right off the latest FutureSox podcast)

Davis Martin to be very solid, and Sean Burke to surprise with how good he will be.

30 home runs from the Benintendi/ Hays combo - that's a easy one

to pull my hair out at times from the outfield defense of Baldwin and Acuna, while pitchers pull their hair out as Acuna steals, at least, 25 bases this year. 

(This also off the FutureSox podcast) - Something like, "Johnny Cueto, Erik Fedde, Clevenger his first year, and last year Adrian Houser, every year they find a veteran who is a nobody and make him really good. Who's it gonna be this year. You know it's going to be someone."

I'm not confident enough in predict 35 HRs for Murakami, but it's very possible. It's also possible he could hit .190 with 17 home runs. 

 

But my main point is I expect the Sox to be competitive, so it's time to use our best players and start winning game, not keep saving players, flipping players, and hoping for the future. So, if he will help win games this year, let's put Hagen in the bullpen.  

 

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4 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

Or . . . it's a game in this upcoming late September and Hagen Smith enters in the 8th inning and gets 3 out (two by strikeouts), and then turns the game over to Seranthony Dominguez, who nails down the win in the 9th and the White Sox clinch the final Wild Card spot. 

I think this is very possible; I will admit unlikely, but it is possible NOW.  I expect the Sox to win, at least 75 games, and I believe will be serious contenders for a wild card spot. 

I expect  . . . 

The SS/ 2B duo of Colson and Sosa to hit 60 homeruns this year. 

60 home runs from the combination of Teel, Vargus, and Baldwin.

Shane Smith to win 14 games, doubling his total from last year (this right off the latest FutureSox podcast)

Davis Martin to be very solid, and Sean Burke to surprise with how good he will be.

30 home runs from the Benintendi/ Hays combo - that's a easy one

to pull my hair out at times from the outfield defense of Baldwin and Acuna, while pitchers pull their hair out as Acuna steals, at least, 25 bases this year. 

(This also off the FutureSox podcast) - Something like, "Johnny Cueto, Erik Fedde, Clevenger his first year, and last year Adrian Houser, every year they find a veteran who is a nobody and make him really good. Who's it gonna be this year. You know it's going to be someone."

I'm not confident enough in predict 35 HRs for Murakami, but it's very possible. It's also possible he could hit .190 with 17 home runs. 

 

But my main point is I expect the Sox to be competitive, so it's time to use our best players and start winning game, not keep saving players, flipping players, and hoping for the future. So, if he will help win games this year, let's put Hagen in the bullpen.  

 

Something would have to have gone seriously wrong with Sean Newcomb for Hagen Smith to be the 8th inning lefty in September. But hey, as long as we're dreaming, I'll put Acuña down for 4 WAR and a GG in CF, and Pereira hits 25 dongs. 

Edited by WestEddy
forgot to mention Sean Newcomb
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3 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

Or . . . it's a game in this upcoming late September and Hagen Smith enters in the 8th inning and gets 3 out (two by strikeouts), and then turns the game over to Seranthony Dominguez, who nails down the win in the 9th and the White Sox clinch the final Wild Card spot. 

I think this is very possible; I will admit unlikely, but it is possible NOW.  I expect the Sox to win, at least 75 games, and I believe will be serious contenders for a wild card spot. 

I expect  . . . 

The SS/ 2B duo of Colson and Sosa to hit 60 homeruns this year. 

60 home runs from the combination of Teel, Vargus, and Baldwin.

Shane Smith to win 14 games, doubling his total from last year (this right off the latest FutureSox podcast)

Davis Martin to be very solid, and Sean Burke to surprise with how good he will be.

30 home runs from the Benintendi/ Hays combo - that's a easy one

to pull my hair out at times from the outfield defense of Baldwin and Acuna, while pitchers pull their hair out as Acuna steals, at least, 25 bases this year. 

(This also off the FutureSox podcast) - Something like, "Johnny Cueto, Erik Fedde, Clevenger his first year, and last year Adrian Houser, every year they find a veteran who is a nobody and make him really good. Who's it gonna be this year. You know it's going to be someone."

I'm not confident enough in predict 35 HRs for Murakami, but it's very possible. It's also possible he could hit .190 with 17 home runs. 

 

But my main point is I expect the Sox to be competitive, so it's time to use our best players and start winning game, not keep saving players, flipping players, and hoping for the future. So, if he will help win games this year, let's put Hagen in the bullpen.  

 

You basically listed out a 90th percentile outcome for every player and said this is what you think will happen.  I’m not looking to poop on anyone’s parade, but all of that happening is way too unrealistic.  You essentially have a 60 win team jumping 20 to 25 games as your base case assumption.    Beyond that, you think a team coming off triple digit losses should rush prospects that aren’t fully developed to fill major league needs.  I’m all for optimism, but we aren’t even remotely close enough ready to start sacrificing our future to win a couple extra games now.

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4 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

I think this is very possible; I will admit unlikely, but it is possible NOW.  I expect the Sox to win, at least 75 games, and I believe will be serious contenders for a wild card spot. 

I agree and keep saying that my O/U is 75 wins.

Baldwin, Colson, Sosa, Quero, Teel, Vargas, Meidroth - half may do better, half may fall back. That may still balance out to the offense that was on a 70-win clip from the ASB on. Your starters gave you 7.2 fWAR in 2025 (less some starts using openers - I don't know how to filter for that on FanGraphs - even still, just looking at total data gets you to 8.4 fWAR for "starters" in 2025.). That's less than 2 WAR apiece across 5 starters for 2026's rotation to match or do better than. The bullpen looks stronger. That's got to pull them up closer to their Pythagorean.

Murakami, Acuña - The White Sox clocked in with a -0.4 (minus) fWAR in 2025 at 1B. I think Murakami could top that. The Sox did 2.3 fWAR in CF last year, so maybe they give a little of that back, and cancel out gains at 1B. 

But for me, the baseline for the 2026 team is 70 wins if they do status quo, and 75+ if some dudes progress. If guys like Colson, Murakami, Shane Smith and Burke show any part of their ceiling, .500 wouldn't surprise me. It takes a lot of wish-casting to get them to "competitive" for the wild card. But hey, I love me some wish-casting. 

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MLB says this kid could crack the opening day roster:

Braden Montgomery, OF (MLB No. 36)
Part of the Garrett Crochet trade with the Red Sox at the 2024 Winter Meetings, Montgomery could shore up what might be MLB's worst outfield contingent. A switch-hitting right-fielder with well-above-average raw power and arm strength, he slashed .270/.360/.444 with 12 homers and 14 steals in 121 games while advancing from Single-A to Double-A in his pro debut.

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55 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

MLB says this kid could crack the opening day roster:

Braden Montgomery, OF (MLB No. 36)
Part of the Garrett Crochet trade with the Red Sox at the 2024 Winter Meetings, Montgomery could shore up what might be MLB's worst outfield contingent. A switch-hitting right-fielder with well-above-average raw power and arm strength, he slashed .270/.360/.444 with 12 homers and 14 steals in 121 games while advancing from Single-A to Double-A in his pro debut.

MLB is wrong.

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7 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

Or . . . it's a game in this upcoming late September and Hagen Smith enters in the 8th inning and gets 3 out (two by strikeouts), and then turns the game over to Seranthony Dominguez, who nails down the win in the 9th and the White Sox clinch the final Wild Card spot. 

I think this is very possible; I will admit unlikely, but it is possible NOW.  I expect the Sox to win, at least 75 games, and I believe will be serious contenders for a wild card spot. 

I expect  . . . 

The SS/ 2B duo of Colson and Sosa to hit 60 homeruns this year. 

60 home runs from the combination of Teel, Vargus, and Baldwin.

Shane Smith to win 14 games, doubling his total from last year (this right off the latest FutureSox podcast)

Davis Martin to be very solid, and Sean Burke to surprise with how good he will be.

30 home runs from the Benintendi/ Hays combo - that's a easy one

to pull my hair out at times from the outfield defense of Baldwin and Acuna, while pitchers pull their hair out as Acuna steals, at least, 25 bases this year. 

(This also off the FutureSox podcast) - Something like, "Johnny Cueto, Erik Fedde, Clevenger his first year, and last year Adrian Houser, every year they find a veteran who is a nobody and make him really good. Who's it gonna be this year. You know it's going to be someone."

I'm not confident enough in predict 35 HRs for Murakami, but it's very possible. It's also possible he could hit .190 with 17 home runs. 

 

But my main point is I expect the Sox to be competitive, so it's time to use our best players and start winning game, not keep saving players, flipping players, and hoping for the future. So, if he will help win games this year, let's put Hagen in the bullpen.  

 

That's true. There's no reason to welcome losing any more. The Sox have more than a handful of useful to very good players so might as well win this pathetic division. If the Sox are soon to become a perennial contender, a WS isn't out of the question in the next five years because anything can happen in the postseason.

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11 hours ago, WestEddy said:

He's been told he'll be given a shot to earn a spot in the rotation. SoxMachine thinks it'll be more about spot-starting. 

I was kind of surprised to not see people here talking about him getting a shot to start. He threw 101 innings last year, a lot of multiple inning outings, I think he would be primed to start and get up to 140-150 innings this year. He should be given the shot, would be awesome if he turned into a good starter. He started in the minors and he pitched well enough last year

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On 2/5/2026 at 6:45 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

Better / not terrible / entertaining…sure.  Good enough to rush prospects to fill major league roles when we have numerous long-term holes in the rotation?  Not even close IMO.

I think Getz has done a great job not rushing guys. Schultz, Hagen,Braden, Oppor should all get more minor league time. It wouldn't surprise me if McDougal gets 1st crack at the 26 as a starter . Vasil, Newcombe,Burke, Cannon , maybe Davitt in the  mix for starting the season in the rotation . Highly doubtful any rookie pitcher makes starts unless its Paez and I expect Thorpe, Sandlin or Davitt will get starts  before Hagen, Schultz or Oppor . Depends on how Thorpe's AAA rehab assignment goes. With Thorpe you get the feeling he could dominate the minors in his sleep before he got hurt more than guys like Schultz and Hagen who have better stuff. If either one of them finds  very effective 3 pitches with command is when we see Crochet like dominance. Command though is very elusive. 

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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11 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Something would have to have gone seriously wrong with Sean Newcomb for Hagen Smith to be the 8th inning lefty in September. But hey, as long as we're dreaming, I'll put Acuña down for 4 WAR and a GG in CF, and Pereira hits 25 dongs. 

Or something went very right with Newcombe as a SP. Not likely at his age  given upside wishcasting is easier with guys in their mid 20's,  but just giving another version. 

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