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Experts cooling the optimism


Texsox
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I don't put all that much stock in what baseball experts are saying, but when we get so little love in the off season I have to reevaluate what's happened.

 

Pitching, both starting and relief are no doubt better.

 

Speed and defense are also up.

 

We lost power.

 

Lee, Maggs, Jose, gone for certain and Frank returns whenever. Maybe we haven't increased all that much.

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QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 03:40 PM)
I don't put all that much stock in what baseball experts are saying, but when we get so little love in the off season I have to reevaluate what's happened.

 

Pitching, both starting and relief are no doubt better.

 

Speed and defense are also up.

 

We lost power.

 

Lee, Maggs, Jose, gone for certain and Frank returns whenever. Maybe we haven't increased all that much.

Tex, the team lost it's flash that's the main reason the sox haven't been getting much recognition. Invividually the offense won't put up as many great statistics as the last couple years but this is a much better "team." Listen to your own advice and don't put much stock in what the so called experts have to say.

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QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 04:48 PM)
Just wondering, but didn't most experts peg the Royals to win the AL Central last year?

 

After about 90% of us on the board knew that they had absolutely nobody worth a damn in their rotation, and a mediocre lineup to boot?

 

Definitely did. People can't really predict this stuff. No one knew Frank AND Maggs would be out half of the year last year. Just let them play the games; experts doubting us isn't going to effect my optimism.

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Everybody is pointing to the loss of LEE. Its big, BUT, they arent looking at the black hole which has been eliminated at the bottom of the lineup. This is why the "experts" are almost always wrong. How many of their division champs that they picked last year, actually turned out. Maybe 1???? Both centrals were wrong, west was off, I mean come on, these guys are just guessing like everyone else

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Has there really been any local pub concerning a weak Sox offseason? Everything negative, or indifferent, article that I've read has been from a national source. If there's one thing I've learned from reading much of that crap is that they are far from specific. Many team details are lost being they don't eat and breath chicago baseball.

 

I'm no statistician like some of the guys on this board and certainly can't claim myself as being an expert, but I think our team has improved tremendously. Sure we've got a couple question marks (Pods, Iguchi, Frank's health, Crede, Uribe) but there aren't many teams that don't.

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Each of the past few seasons at least a couple guys would pick the Sox, and I canot recall us being lower than 3rd. Most called it a 2-way race.

 

I really cannot wait for ST this year to see how it all shakes out.

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I think too many publications have fallen in love with stats too much. I mentioned this in another thread about a week ago, but ESPN has embraced that "biggest name available" philosophy, meaning if you don't get that huge "name", your offseason wasn't worth a damn. Nevermind that the Angels & Marlins blew that theory to hell, it's all about the name. The Sox lost 2 "names", thus they've regressed.

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maybe we are a bit optimistic but experts dont take in to count that we only had maggz for a third of the year so Dye in a way is an actual upgrade. Also i dont see valentin as a loss i actually think of it as a gain in losing him.

 

So in essence we added all those players and lost Carlos Lee thats how i judge our offseason.

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QUOTE(ChiSoxFan @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 06:00 PM)
I think too many publications have fallen in love with stats too much.  I mentioned this in another thread about a week ago, but ESPN has embraced that "biggest name available" philosophy, meaning if you don't get that huge "name", your offseason wasn't worth a damn.  Nevermind that the Angels & Marlins blew that theory to hell, it's all about the name.  The Sox lost 2 "names", thus they've regressed.

I'd say you hit the nail on the head with that post. "Experts" do tend to go with the "named" players....but they're as much experts as you and me.

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Teams win Championships, names sell publications.

 

On one hand they will refer to Yankees how they went from the team mentality to the names, and they have not done as well.

 

On the other they will say that unless you get big names, you are not improving.

 

Brosius, O'Neil, etc do not have the clout and names that Giambi, A-Rod, Sheff, etc, but they have a hell of a lot more championships.

 

:)

 

SB

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QUOTE(Soxbadger @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 06:21 PM)
Teams win Championships, names sell publications.

 

On one hand they will refer to Yankees how they went from the team mentality to the names, and they have not done as well.

 

On the other they will say that unless you get big names, you are not improving.

 

Brosius, O'Neil, etc do not have the clout and names that Giambi, A-Rod, Sheff, etc, but they have a hell of a lot more championships.

 

:)

 

SB

You're right....ever since they started to trade for/sign these named players to replace the "above average" players, Brosius, O'Neil...etc, they've made the playoffs and have gotten to the WS, but have yet to win it since. :lolhitting

:finger >>Yankees

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QUOTE(Soxbadger @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 06:21 PM)
Teams win Championships, names sell publications.

 

On one hand they will refer to Yankees how they went from the team mentality to the names, and they have not done as well.

 

On the other they will say that unless you get big names, you are not improving.

 

Brosius, O'Neil, etc do not have the clout and names that Giambi, A-Rod, Sheff, etc, but they have a hell of a lot more championships.

 

:)

 

SB

 

 

That's the team chemistry working there. When the Yankees won their 1st championship in '96 after their long drought, they had their superstars with Jeter & Williams, but they had role players like O'Neill, Boggs, Tino Martinez, Charlie Hayes, Wetteland (Rivera was still the setup guy), Sojo & Girardi getting it done all the way to 2000. They won those early championships because everybody knew their role. Then Steinbrenner got greedy and wanted all the big names. And they haven't won since, nor do I think they'll win this year. Hell, even Steinbrenner is asking ARod to be a "team leader". If he has to ask him to do it, chances are of it not happening. I look forward to the Sox gelling as a team, and can only hope it translates into a couple of extra wins this year.

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I think they also picked us to finsh 3rd last year.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Feb 3, 2005 -> 09:48 PM)
Just wondering, but didn't most experts peg the Royals to win the AL Central last year?

 

After about 90% of us on the board knew that they had absolutely nobody worth a damn in their rotation, and a mediocre lineup to boot?

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Here's their 2004 numbers folks...

 

Maggs 9 HR, 37 RBI .292 AVG. .351 OBP .485 SLG .836 OPS

Thomas 18 HR 49 RBI .271 AVG .434 OBP .563 SLG .997 OPS

Valentin 30 HR 70 RBI .216 AVG .287 OBP .473 SLG .760 OPS

Lee 31 HR 99 RBI .305 AVG .366 OBP .525 SLG .891 OPS

 

These national media folks are not doing their homework. Our offense will be better this year. Unless Jermaine Dye gets hurt by June he will double, maybe triple Maggs output from last year. Even if Thomas is out until the middle of June, it shouldn't be hard for him duplicate last year. Valentin sucked! The 30 homeruns aside, his hitting was a liability to this team last year.

 

It then comes down to whether or not AJ, Pods, and Iguchi make up for the loss of CLee. Because the only player we lost from last year's team who did much last year was Carlos Lee. And, I haven't even talked about our pitching upgrades.

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I've done this analysis already. The Sox are losing about 20-25 in both the R & RBI dept. But they are shaving off 70+ R in the pitching dept.

 

That's why on paper the Sox are a much improved team. But paper never considers health. When stars go down & team as a slightly better than average rotation & pen you can't win. That's the story of the Sox from 01-04. A main guy in either the rotation, lineup or both went down & the depth wasn't there to make up for it. If Thomas had not gone down I do not believe this team plays 10 gms < 500 in Jul & Aug & could have challenged the Twins down to the wire.

 

With Thomas coming back late I think the odds are in our favor he won't go down again. That means we just need to remain above 500 until he returns to his great form.

 

This team is tailor made to score runs. If Pods can hit 300 this team will exceed it's 04 runs total. I have no doubt about that. I can't emphasize more the two waves of speed & power the lineup features. No other team can offer that.

 

Pods + Iggy - speed

Dye + Koney + Everett OR Thomas + Koney + Dye - power

Rowand + Uribe - speed

AJ + Crede - power

 

Bench: Davis, Gload, Timo, Harris/Everett, UIF

 

When you combine that with the obvious reduction in runs against it hard not to be optimistic. Pray for a healthy team year round & enjoy the winning.

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really if you look at last year and who played and who contributed its

 

Lost:

Carlos Lee, prob MVP of team last year regardless of Konerko's 41 HR's and Rowands break out year

 

Gain:

Full Years of Contreras and Garcia

El Duque

Iguchi

Pieryznski

Everett

Podsenick

Hermason

Vizcaino

Jermaine Dye

 

 

Now call me stupid but that sounds like a major upgrade to me :huh:

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