Hot Stove Heaters

[KevHead0881]

This was on the main MLB page of ESPN.com. Nothing new really, but its a good read from Phil Rogers.

 

Building a perennial contender

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By Phil Rogers

Special to ESPN.com

 

When the White Sox won the World Series, it was a once-in-a-lifetime experience for every Chicago baseball fan under the age of 88. Ken Williams wants to change that.

 

Williams, the general manager who brashly made winning the World Series his goal when the Sox were having trouble making the playoffs, now envisions such a run of success that they regain equality with the heavily entrenched Cubs, who outdrew them by more than 700,000 fans during the championship season.

 

"The defeatist attitude that we always will be Chicago's second team just doesn't fly with me," Williams said. "And we all accept the challenge that we must win again and probably again after that to change the culture. More winning will result in the changing of that culture. I hope I'm right, because if not, I'm going to have a lot of answering to do."

 

Williams was referring to how much of owner Jerry Reinsdorf's money he has committed in the hopes of sustaining the magic that carried the White Sox through a historic 11-1 postseason run to finish 2005.

 

The Sox won their championship with a payroll of about $76 million, which ranked 13th in the major leagues. They figure to open 2006 somewhere above $90 million, which could rank as the third highest in the American League, behind only the Yankees and Red Sox, and in the same neighborhood as the Cubs, who in recent years outspent them by at least $25 million per season.

 

Spending money doesn't guarantee success. But the White Sox also have a history of spending wisely, which should worry the traditional powerhouses in the AL, who appear to be in decline.

 

Reasons why the White Sox could become the third AL team in 13 years to repeat as World Series champs (a feat last done in the National League by Cincinnati's Big Red Machine in 1975-76):

 

 

Return Of The Captain

 

When the public last saw the White Sox together, riding through downtown streets aboard double-decker buses, there was a fear this would be the last that fans would see of Paul Konerko. This was no minor concern, as along with lefty Mark Buehrle, he is one of the club's two cornerstone players.

 

Konerko had established his value locally long before his World Series grand slam and 15 RBI in the team's 12 postseason games. He has produced back-to-back 40-homer seasons and driven in 97-plus runs in five of the last six seasons. But by coming through when it mattered most, he put his name alongside the biggest run-producers in the majors.

 

Had Williams been more serious about signing Konerko to an extension before 2005, he could have gotten him cheaper. But he did the right thing by matching the Los Angeles Angels' offer of $60 million over five years, stepping in at the last moment to keep his cleanup hitter. Even that might not have been enough to keep Konerko had Williams not made an even bolder move by trading for Jim Thome, who brings a big left-handed bat to hit behind Konerko.

 

 

An Improved Lineup

 

Improving the lineup was a must given an average of 4.6 runs per game (two-tenths of a run under the AL average) in the regular season, and Williams has done it. No team had won a World Series with such subpar run scoring since the 1985 Kansas City Royals, and that team would win only 76 games the next season, largely because its lineup was even less effective.

 

That's unlikely to happen to the '06 Sox. They look improved with a healthy Thome in the designated hitter slot, filled last season by Carl Everett and a limping Frank Thomas. The championship team was at its regular-season best when Thomas was in the lineup alongside Konerko. Thome, who has worked hard to rehab the back and elbow problems that limited him to 59 games for Philadelphia, brings even more of a presence than Thomas.

 

Aaron Rowand played an excellent center and was a clubhouse leader, but the postseason exposed his limitations as a hitter. Brian Anderson, a first-round draft pick in 2003, hit .295 with an .829 OPS in Triple-A and will be able to ease into the lineup as a No. 8 or even No. 9 hitter. Rob Mackowiak, a left-handed-hitting 10th man acquired from Pittsburgh, adds depth. Also, look for bigger contributions from Joe Crede, Tadahito Iguchi (who will drop in the order in the hope he resembles the guy who hit .337-26-99 in 2003-04 in Japan) and Juan Uribe.

 

 

Even More Starting Pitching

 

With Williams trading for Javier Vazquez while retaining the four horses the White Sox rode through the postseason -- Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland -- the starting rotation should again be one of the league's best. Only Oakland approaches the Sox's depth.

Including Vazquez and 22-year-old Brandon McCarthy, the rotation is six deep. That group combined to go 77-50 with a 3.72 earned run average in 1,173 innings last season, making 173 starts. This is called being loaded.

 

Williams signed Garland to a three-year extension, giving him control over all of his starters (except second-half ace Contreras) through the 2007 season. He could deal Contreras to open a spot for McCarthy but isn't averse to having a surplus.

 

 

The Secret Weapon

 

Brandon McCarthy is capable of a Rookie of the Year performance, although he won't be eligible for the award because he worked 67 innings last year, 17 more than the cutoff. He is not as spectacular as Seattle's Felix Hernandez, but it won't be a huge surprise if he outperforms Hernandez and all the other top pitching prospects this seasons -- guys like Minnesota's Francisco Liriano and San Francisco's Matt Cain.

Even though he was left off the White Sox's playoff roster, he pitched as well as any pitcher in baseball after the All-Star break. He was 7-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 16 starts between Triple-A and the big leagues after July 4, holding Texas and Boston scoreless for 14 2/3 innings in big wins on the road and then knocking Cleveland out of the playoffs with a win the last day of the season. He stands 6-foot-7 and has the stuff to be the second coming of Jack McDowell -- maybe even Mark Prior without the hype and the monster calves.

 

 

He's A Natural

 

This is Ozzie Guillen's team, and he might be the best manager in baseball. In two years on the job, Guillen has a World Series ring and a 67-38 record in one-run games. He handles his pitching staff extremely well -- almost never allowing a starter to throw 120 pitches, defining roles in the bullpen and challenging pitchers to succeed after they've failed -- and is smart enough to manufacture runs rather than wait for home runs.

Guillen's leadership was evident when the Sox kept themselves together last season after losing all but 1 1/2 games of the 15-game lead they held on Aug. 1. He's tried to keep his intelligence a secret throughout his baseball career, but sorry Ozzie, it's showing.

 

 

* * * * * * * * * *

If the White Sox don't go deep in the playoffs next fall, it will be because:

 

 

Chem-Lab Explosion

 

This was an extremely tight-knit team that won together and lost together last season. Many general managers would have done everything they could to keep it together, but Williams traded in eight of the 25 guys from the World Series roster, including Rowand -- a clubhouse leader. Of particular interest will be the pitching of Contreras without his mentor, Orlando Hernandez, sitting beside him on the bench and working with him in the bullpen. Vazquez, going to his fourth team in four years, will be watched closely, both on the mound and in the clubhouse.

 

 

High-Mileage Arms

 

Pitching injuries are always a concern, but you wonder what kind of a toll carrying the 2005 team took on the staff, especially starters. Buehrle, who ranks behind only Livan Hernandez in innings since 2001, threw 268 innings overall and was unusually sore after his 14th-inning relief stint in Game 3 of the World Series. Contreras (237), Garcia (249) and Garland (237) also are coming back after unusually high workloads.

 

Relievers won't be immune from injury, either. In his first season as a reliever, Bobby Jenks was used 73 times between Double-A and the big leagues. Neal Cotts, an invaluable set-up man who could morph into a starter if needed, made 75 appearances. Dustin Hermanson, the veteran, is an unknown commodity because of a back condition that is being treated conservatively.

 

Two factors suggest that the staff ERA is going to climb from last year's 3.61, which just missed leading the league (Cleveland had a lower 3.61). The White Sox's ERA was 4.91 in 2004, with many of the same pitchers in the equation, and U.S. Cellular is a pitcher's nightmare.

 

You can't give Buehrle and Co. enough credit for the way they pitched at a ballpark where Bill James' formula set the home-run index at 139 in 2005, making it the best park in the majors for home-run hitters. That figure is 135 over a three-year span, showing that last season was no real fluke. The White Sox compensate by having ground-ball pitchers on their staff, but it will be almost impossible for them to be as precise in 2006 as they were in '05.

 

 

Rolling Snake-Eyes With Thome

 

Maybe there's a good reason the Phillies sent the Sox $22 million to help pay the last three years of Thome's contract. After all, he's 35 and declining physically. Another injury, especially a recurrence of his back or elbow problems, would not be a surprise. Plus, there's the drop of his batting average from .274 in 2004 to .207. He's got some confidence to regain, along with his health. If he struggles, he could drain energy from his teammates.

 

 

Bullpen Vulnerability

 

Entering his first full season as a big-leaguer, Jenks should still be considered an X-factor. He harnessed his control problems for a wire-to-wire solid performance in 2005, but he'll need a fast start to get a carryover to 2006.

 

Jenks is remembered for nailing down the 1-0 victory in Game 4 of the World Series and the clinching victory against Boston in the first round. But he blew a World Series save for Buehrle and failed to convert saves in back-to-back games against Cleveland in a key September series. He converted only seven of his last 10 overall, which isn't a great ratio.

 

Hermanson's health is a question entering spring training. The unsung Luis Vizcaino and lightning-rod Damaso Marte must be replaced. Set-up men Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts should once again be solid, but relief pitching is less predictable than any other facet of the game.

 

 

The Land Of Great Pitching

 

Long known as the Comedy Central, the AL Central has quietly become a deep division populated by teams with some of the best arms -- especially young arms -- in the major leagues. Minnesota's Johan Santana is probably the best pitcher in the majors, and Cleveland has a great young mix behind C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.

 

The Indians looked like the AL's best team in mid-September and should benefit from the experience gained in 2005. Minnesota, which had won the division three years in a row before '05, is capable of challenging the White Sox.

 

The start of the season could be crucial. After the White Sox won 95 games and a division title in 2000, they were swept twice by the Twins in three-game series within the first 17 games of the next season. They never really recovered, and spent the next three seasons chasing the Twins.

 

The 2006 White Sox should be better than they were in 2001, but they face a similar early test with 12 of the first 38 games against Cleveland and Minnesota. Those games won't decide anything but should show if the defending champs face an easy summer or a tense one.

 

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a Web site at www.chicagosports.com.

[Rex Kickass]

Nice piece. I think we've done as good a job as we could do in the offseason.

 

If we lose, it really looks like it'll be injuries and chemistry that would be the X factors.

[southsider2k5]

I love the quote from Kenny. I know it was from the Garland press confrence, but it rings so true and goes to exactly what makes KW invaluable to the Sox. He is driven.

[Chisoxfn]

Great article.

[retro1983hat]

A very good read, but the media constantly ask Sox fans when they will get over the Cubs. My question is when will the media stop mentioning the Cubs (and attendance) in every Sox article?

[Milkman delivers]

I notice right under this story is another named Rob Neyer: White Sox could fall. It's not surprising that that piece of trash has to write an article against the Sox when someone writes something good about them. It's an insider story, so I can't read it.

[SSH2005]

I notice right under this story is another named Rob Neyer: White Sox could fall.  It's not surprising that that piece of trash has to write an article against the Sox when someone writes something good about them.  It's an insider story, so I can't read it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

White Sox could be in for a tough year

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/col..._rob&id=2296529

Which of 2005's division winners won't repeat in 2006?

 

We start with the assumption that the very best teams of 2005 won't be as good in 2006.

 

Why? The technical term is "regression to the mean." In nonstatistician terms, the reasoning is simply this: Teams that win a significantly impressive number of games were probably a little bit lucky (among other things), and can't count on their luck to hold.

 

We see the same effect with individual players. Many fans might guess that Rookies of the Year only get better in the season after they win that award. As a group, they do not. From 1996-2004, 13 nonpitchers won Rookie of the Year awards. Here's what they did in their winning seasons, and in the next:

 

          Games Runs RBI  BA/OBP/SLG

Season 1  150  95  82  .297/.363/.473

Season 2  132  85  71  .287/.359/.468

 

It's actually been a pretty good run for the ROYs, percentage-wise, in that time span. Thanks largely to strong follow-up seasons from Scott Rolen, Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Bay, the sophomores were very nearly as effective, per plate appearance, as they'd been as freshmen. The catch, of course, is that first column. In their Rookie of the Year seasons, 10 of the 13 played in at least 149 games. A year later, only five of the 13 played in at least 149 games (and four played fewer than 110).

 

They were the same players they'd been; they just weren't as healthy or lucky.

 

Teams that win a lot of games are like rookies who play particularly well: The odds are not in their favor.

 

Six teams last season won more than 90 games: the Cardinals (100), White Sox (99), Yankees (95), Angels (95), Red Sox (95) and Indians (93). Without even getting into the specifics of roster composition, I'd be willing to bet, even money, that at least four of those six teams will win fewer games in 2006. If I knew absolutely nothing about these teams but their records, that's what I would say. But of course we know quite a bit more about them. We know how they really played (aside from their wins and losses) and we know what they've done in the offseason (so far).

 

To measure how they really played, we can look at "second-order wins," as seen in the Baseball Prospectus standings. Second-order wins show us how many games each team "should" have won, considering its batting and pitching statistics (except runs scored and allowed).

 

Some of you won't like these next numbers, so feel free to skip ahead (or read somebody else's column; we're always posting new ones)...

 

          Real  2W

Cardinals  100  91

White Sox    99  87

Yankees      95  93

Angels      95  88

Red Sox      95  90

(Indians    93  98)

 

Well, that was easy. We didn't even have to play the 2006 schedule, and five of the six teams are already worse than their 2005 record -- and it's not even Opening Day yet!

 

And if we're looking for 2005 division winners who seem unlikely to repeat, we've got a couple of prime candidates in the White Sox and the Angels.

 

If you believe in second-order wins -- and I think that you do -- the White Sox were 11 games worse than the Indians last season, and only three games better than the Twins. No, the Indians probably won't play as well in 2006. Yes, the White Sox might be the best team in the Central Division (particularly if Jim Thome is healthy). But if given a choice between betting on the White Sox or the field, you have to take the field, because there's a pretty good chance that the Indians or the Twins -- both of whom strengthened their rosters this winter -- will knock off the Sox.

 

The Angels are in bigger trouble, I think. Three reasons. One, they've lost two key components off last season's roster (Bengie Molina and Jarrod Washburn). Two, they really weren't all that good last season. And three, they face Oakland and Texas squads that have improved measurably since last season. The Angels are certainly in the running, but nobody should be all that surprised if they finish third.

 

In the East, the Yankees and Red Sox have both engaged in their annual winter dance, and while the Red Sox have actually done more, the Yankees seem to have come out ahead. This is probably the hardest race to handicap, though, because it seems unlikely that the Sox will actually feature Alex Cora (shortstop) and Adam Stern (center field) in their Opening Day lineup. And no, I'm not forgetting about the Blue Jays. I like what they've done, but they probably need some help in the form of a rash of injuries to one or both of the other contenders' geriatric pitching rotations (which is more than a remote possibility).

 

The Cardinals also seem primed for a big drop-off, but at the same time they still look like a fairly safe bet to repeat. Sure, there's always "the Cubs' lament": If Prior and Wood are healthy... Hey, it could happen. If those guys combine for 60 starts, the Cubs have a real shot at knocking off the Cardinals. But they combined for 43 in 2004 and 37 in 2005, so I don't expect them to magically become Koufax and Drysdale in 2006. And considering the Astros' loss of their best pitcher, the Cardinals look pretty safe to me, even with the big hole they have in left field.

 

It's a different story on the edges of the country, where both defending champs are at great risk. The Padres really were the best team in the West last season, whether you look at real wins (82) or second-order (76). But the Dodgers were exceptionally unlucky in regard to injuries and they've improved at two or three positions. Maybe it won't be the Dodgers, but maybe it will be. Maybe it will be the Giants, but maybe it won't. The Padres are more likely to lose the West than they are to win it.

 

I hate to do this, because it's exceptionally easy and I'm going to antagonize, once again, all the loyal Braves fans. Here it is, though: I don't see them winning again. They've made one significant move -- replacing Rafael Furcal with Edgar Renteria -- and it's a negative move. They don't have a closer, and they've lost their pitching coach. Meanwhile, the Mets, whose 89 second-order wins last season were three more than the Braves', have added Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner to their roster. Things never seem to go exactly as planned in Flushing Meadows, but the Mets look to me like the best team in the National League.

 

So there it is. Defending White Sox and Angels? Out. Defending Braves and Padres? Out. All hail the New Order in 2006.

 

Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider two or three times per week. To offer criticism, praise or anything in between, send an e-mail to rob.neyer@dig.com.

[Balta1701]

The Indians strengthened their roster this year Rob? Paul Byrd being that huge upgrade from Millwood?

[SSH2005]

The Indians strengthened their roster this year Rob?  Paul Byrd being that huge upgrade from Millwood?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Kevin Millwood --> Paul Byrd = DOWNGRADE (Byrd is a good pitcher but he's no Millwood)

 

Scott Elarton --> Jason Johnson = STATUS QUO (both crappy #5 pitchers)

 

Bob Wickman --> Bob Wickman = STATUS QUO (although fatboy had a career year in 2005 so it's most likely a downgrade)

 

Losing Bob Howry = DOWNGRADE (great setup man in 2005)

 

Signing Eduardo Perez to platoon with Ben Broussard at 1B = UPGRADE (Perez rakes lefties and that will save Broussard from facing them)

 

Signing Danny Graves, Steve Karsay, Einar Diaz, Todd Hollansworth, and Lou Merloni to minor league contracts = UPGRADE (a bunch of washed-up bums that could possibly pan out for them)

Edited January 18, 2006 by SSH2005

[whitesoxfan101]

We got better, the Indians got worse......after we were 6 games better LAST year. WTF is Neyer talking about?

[KevHead0881]

Indians or the Twins -- both of whom strengthened their rosters this winter

 

Me gets the feeling that Mr. Neyer hasn't done his homework.

[Kyyle23]

The Indians strengthened their roster this year Rob?  Paul Byrd being that huge upgrade from Millwood?

 

Ha, I read that quote and thought "The Indians and Twins strengthened their rosters? How?"

[Milkman delivers]

Eh, I'm not even going to read it. Thanks for posting it, though. I just don't want to get angry because of this guy that clearly has a problem with the White Sox for some reason. He's a douchebag.

[Heads22]

You guys are obviously underestimating the mighty powers of Tony Batista and Paul Byrd.

[SSH2005]

Eh, I'm not even going to read it.  Thanks for posting it, though.  I just don't want to get angry because of this guy that clearly has a problem with the White Sox for some reason.  He's a douchebag.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because Neyer is a stathead and he argued all last season that the White Sox weren't good enough to win the World Series. Now he looks like an idiot because his stats failed him.

[Kyyle23]

Because Neyer is a stathead and he argued all last season that the White Sox weren't good enough to win the World Series.  Now he looks like an idiot because his stats failed him.

 

No, he looks like an idiot because he looks like an idiot. It has nothing to do with stats.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Because Neyer is a stathead and he argued all last season that the White Sox weren't good enough to win the World Series.  Now he looks like an idiot because his stats failed him.

The thing I think Neyer is failing to realize right now is that he still doesn't have a large enough package of stats to evaluate teams. For example, we all know that there still aren't real good, perfect metrics through which defensive performance can be evaluated, nor can we tell how defensive performance impacts total game results yet. The White Sox looked like they should be a worse team based on older stats, like OPS. But the places where we excelled last year (pitching and defense) were places where there aren't always good stats to allow for evaluation of every single point.

[jphat007]

I will agree that we were a little bit lucky with injuries and awesome bullpen performances (which led to all the 1-run leads), but I think we've more than made up for that having an entire (hopefully) year of awesome Contreras and Vasquez for the Duke and a better offense. You figure some guys numbers will improve. Uribe, Iguchi, AJ, all at least a little bit. Nobody really had a career year offensively last year. You would figure that we would have improved on offense just a little bit from that fact, but we added Thome in there.

 

I do not agree that the Indians upgraded though. They aren't going to be as good pitching wise. They thought they had 1b fixed last year with Hernandez, who crushed lefties coming in, but then he wasn't all that good at all. The Twins upgraded the offense with Castillo a bit, but not nearly enough. Of course, either of those teams could knock us off for any number of reasons, but I don't think I would call it "likely" I would think there is a very good chance that the WC comes from the Central though.

[SSH2005]

I will agree that we were a little bit lucky with injuries and awesome bullpen performances (which led to all the 1-run leads), but I think we've more than made up for that having an entire (hopefully) year of awesome Contreras and Vasquez for the Duke and a better offense. You figure some guys numbers will improve. Uribe, Iguchi, AJ, all at least a little bit. Nobody really had a career year offensively last year. You would figure that we would have improved on offense just a little bit from that fact, but we added Thome in there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Iguchi had a career year.

 

Seriously though, Konerko had his best season ever but he should maintain that kind of performance. Dye also had his best season in years but staying healthy and hitting at the Cell should keep his numbers up. The worry is our bullpen. Cotts, Politte, and Hermanson all had massive career years.

 

I do not agree that the Indians upgraded though. They aren't going to be as good pitching wise. They thought they had 1b fixed last year with Hernandez, who crushed lefties coming in, but then he wasn't all that good at all. The Twins upgraded the offense with Castillo a bit, but not nearly enough. Of course, either of those teams could knock us off for any number of reasons, but I don't think I would call it "likely" I would think there is a very good chance that the WC comes from the Central though.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Eduardo Perez should be a massive improvement at first base against lefties over Jose Hernandez. But he's really the only improvement that the Indians made unless those washed-up guys like Graves, Karsay, and Hollandsworth have good seasons for them.

[ChWRoCk2]

Just reading some other posts the Indians did imrprove a little, who is to say that Paul Byrd and Millwood are about the same pitchers, they arent very different, and Jason Johnson is truly more of a starting pitcher than Elarton, really other than that the only places I saw them improve at were first base with the whole Perez deal but they added some depth with hollandsworth and possibly Graves if he forgets about his 2005 season, but still we didnt have any dramatic losses that hurt us and we gained Thome and Vaszquez, and also a utility man in Mackowiak.

 

If anyone improved the most Id have to say it was the twins in our division out of all the teams with exceptions of the White Sox. The twins let me remind you did add luis castillo who helps them on the basepaths and is a good leadoff man, and even with the loss of jacque jones signed rondell white, however I just see him as a DH option based on how well lew ford has done in the outfield. Batista is a question mark and you cant really judge this move yet till the first week of the season.

 

During spring training I think we should get a better idea about the teams in our division and really see who improved and upraded.

[WHarris1]

Neyer got burned very badly by the Sox last year so there is no way he will ever give them any credit. What a tool.

[jphat007]

Iguchi had a career year.  

 

Seriously though, Konerko had his best season ever but he should maintain that kind of performance.  Dye also had his best season in years but staying healthy and hitting at the Cell should keep his numbers up.  The worry is our bullpen.  Cotts, Politte, and Hermanson all had massive career years.

Eduardo Perez should be a massive improvement at first base against lefties over Jose Hernandez.  But he's really the only improvement that the Indians made unless those washed-up guys like Graves, Karsay, and Hollandsworth have good seasons for them.

 

Hernandez had very similar numbers to Perez against lefties coming into Cleveland. Perez got to beat up on a bunch of awful lefties in the AL East. No more. I expect him to have numbers a little bit better, but similar to Hernandez last year.

 

And I was only talking about offense. I said pitching was likely to regress a little. Pretty much everybody on Cleveland's staff and bullpen had career years too.

 

And Paul's numbers were similar to the year before.

Edited January 18, 2006 by jphat007

[SSH2005]

Hernandez had very similar numbers to Perez against lefties coming into Cleveland. Perez got to beat up on a bunch of awful lefties in the AL East. No more. I expect him to have numbers a little bit better, but similar to Hernandez last year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Eduardo Pérez is a much better bet to put up good numbers against lefties because of his ability to draw walks against them. José Hernández is just a strikeout machine.

 

José Hernández (career vs. Left)

1,367 AB

.263 AVG

.322 OBP

.488 SLG

.810 OPS

121 BB

374 K

 

Eduardo Pérez (career vs. Left)

697 AB

.263 AVG

.368 OBP

.501 SLG

.868 OPS

106 BB

133 K

 

But like I said, other than the washed-up players they signed to minor league deals panning out, Eduardo Pérez was the only real improvement they made.

[chitownsportsfan]

Here is the formula for 2nd order wins, also called ""Pythagenport":

 

X = 1.5log(RPG) + .45

 

The model was devised by Clay Davenport. Don't ask me how he came up with that formula. I maxed out in math freshman year calc in college.

 

I did a couple quick Google searches on 2nd order wins and found some pretty interesting stuff. In particular, the Hardball Times examined the White Sox' success in June and had the following conclusion to make:

 

"I would answer that during a season the Pythagorean formula does a good job of predicting which teams will likely stay in the race for the duration, but as we get into June, the number of games a team will win is equally or better predicted by their actual winning percentage at that time."

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...-the-white-sox/

 

This sort of sabermetrics stuff is way beyond basics like OPS and DIPS, it's more intersting, but I find it kind of hard to get into the hard-core calculations these guys are making.

 

Still, I think it's folley on Neyer's part to use only second order wins when trying to figure out who's due to repeat and who's due to fall. Team's rosters are just too different from year to year. And his "regression to the mean" means little without looking further into the individual player's statistics and if they are repeatable. The Sox were great in 1 run games last year--and that is why the Pythagoreans don't like the Sox. No evidence points to this being a repeatable stat(winning close games) , but I know some work is being done by The Hardball Times with teams that have great bullpens and their record in close games. I think they concluded that it sure doesn't hurt, and probably helps.

 

I wouldn't get too worked up about this stuff guys. Neyer is just doing his job. It's the middle of winter, all this stuff needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

We will know more about the Sox and Indians after May than any of last years statistics could tell us--no matter how much Neyer wants to believe last years Pythagoreans.

[jphat007]

Eduardo Pérez is a much better bet to put up good numbers against lefties because of his ability to draw walks against them.  José Hernández is just a strikeout machine.

 

José Hernández (career vs. Left)

1,367 AB

.263 AVG

.322 OBP

.488 SLG

.810 OPS

121 BB

374 K

 

Eduardo Pérez (career vs. Left)

697 AB

.263 AVG

.368 OBP

.501 SLG

.868 OPS

106 BB

133 K

 

But like I said, other than the washed-up players they signed to minor league deals panning out, Eduardo Pérez was the only real improvement they made.

 

Do these numbers include last year's numbers for Hernandez (.269 .288 .434 against lefties) in which he was extremely medicore against them, and thus bringing down his numbers a bit (especially that OBP)