Your 2013 Plan for the White Sox

[bigruss]

The way I see it, if I'm Rick Hahn (and we did graduate from the same high school only a year apart), I give Jerry a three scenario presentation....

 

1. Tear it Down - trade away everything that you can get something of value for that has a contract for 7 figures. Acquire all prospects possible. Shoot for 2014 or 2015. Payroll cost: $50-$90M.

 

2. Tweak to improve - this is the plan I started the thread with, basically. Try to get just a little better, which combined with some maturing young players and stretched out pitchers, might give the team the +5 games it needs to get there. Payroll cost: $95M-$105M

 

3. Go for it - need enough money for the Tweak scenario, plus enough to go get a 3B, and a few mill for a better pitcher pickup. This puts the team in the best spot, competitively. Payroll cost: $110-$120M.

 

Which do you think Jerry would want?

Option 2 is Jerry's MO. Ensure there will be profits, hope the team gets hot/lucky enough to get in the playoffs.

 

I personally think it'll be right around $100mm and Hahn has to sell some players on the current roster to be able to field a playoff team, tweaks won't get us over the Tigers who if they make a playoff run will spend even more next season (opinion, not fact).

[bigruss]

Why suggest pipe dreams? Let's also trade for Mike Trout while we're at it.

 

Stay realistic. Grienke hates pitching in the Cell and we can't afford him. /idea

This, Grienke for a ton of reasons on both sides is not coming here.

[cabiness42]

I don't, but the Sox have put themselves in a position where most of their best players have bad contracts, and they don't have enough young talent to build a winner from within. Thus, they see themselves in an awkward position of trying to add to a mediocre team that can't sell off some of it's assets (or would be hard to do).

 

Define bad contract? My definition of a bad contract is that you could go out and sign a free agent who could perform just as well for less money.

 

Konerko is owed $13.5M for one year (with the money spread out). You might be able to get a 1B with an .853 OPS for less than that, but not much less.

Rios is owed $25M for two years. You certainly aren't getting a corner OF with an .850 OPS for that. Even if you assume Rios regresses to an .800 OPS, $25M is still at or below market value for two years.

Dunn is owed $30M for two years. Probably overpaid if he can't get his OPS over .800, but you can't replace 41 home runs from the DH spot very cheaply.

Danks is owed $42.75M for three years. Definitely below market value if he recovers from injury and becomes the old John Danks.

Ramirez is owed $26.5M for three years. Probably the worst contract the Sox have. That's a lot to pay for a .651 OPS no matter how good the defense is.

Thornton and Crain have $5.5M and $4.5M for one year each. Probably overpaying a bit for relievers that don't close, but only one year left on those contracts.

 

So there is only one contract that I would call really bad at this point.

 

As for the young talent part, there is quite a bit in the system but none that will be able to contribute in 2013. It may be a challenge to compete in 2013 but things start looking up a lot soon after that.

 

[greg775]

Define bad contract? My definition of a bad contract is that you could go out and sign a free agent who could perform just as well for less money.

 

Konerko is owed $13.5M for one year (with the money spread out). You might be able to get a 1B with an .853 OPS for less than that, but not much less.

Rios is owed $25M for two years. You certainly aren't getting a corner OF with an .850 OPS for that. Even if you assume Rios regresses to an .800 OPS, $25M is still at or below market value for two years.

Dunn is owed $30M for two years. Probably overpaid if he can't get his OPS over .800, but you can't replace 41 home runs from the DH spot very cheaply.

Danks is owed $42.75M for three years. Definitely below market value if he recovers from injury and becomes the old John Danks.

Ramirez is owed $26.5M for three years. Probably the worst contract the Sox have. That's a lot to pay for a .651 OPS no matter how good the defense is.

Thornton and Crain have $5.5M and $4.5M for one year each. Probably overpaying a bit for relievers that don't close, but only one year left on those contracts.

 

So there is only one contract that I would call really bad at this point.

 

As for the young talent part, there is quite a bit in the system but none that will be able to contribute in 2013. It may be a challenge to compete in 2013 but things start looking up a lot soon after that.

 

Rios, Dunn, Danks are horrific contracts IMO. Lexi's is bad, too because he has not taken the next step and won't. Thornton is just another arm and isn't worth that kind of loot IMO. I don't think he's tradeable either. Nobody's going to take him for that kind of money.

[cabiness42]

Rios, Dunn, Danks are horrific contracts IMO. Lexi's is bad, too because he has not taken the next step and won't. Thornton is just another arm and isn't worth that kind of loot IMO. I don't think he's tradeable either. Nobody's going to take him for that kind of money.

 

If Rios, Dunn, and Danks are unacceptable contracts, then you should be prepared to have a team that never has an above average player with more than six years service time.

 

[bigruss]

First, I should've said something more along the lines of have bad contracts/won't bring much in return in a trade.

 

Define bad contract? My definition of a bad contract is that you could go out and sign a free agent who could perform just as well for less money.

 

Konerko is owed $13.5M for one year (with the money spread out). You might be able to get a 1B with an .853 OPS for less than that, but not much less.

Konerko's age and health make it so that he has very little value. The deal is okay for the Sox at the moment, but he really needs to be healthy again as he was terrible since he hit the .399 mark.

 

Rios is owed $25M for two years. You certainly aren't getting a corner OF with an .850 OPS for that. Even if you assume Rios regresses to an .800 OPS, $25M is still at or below market value for two years.

Well I clearly don't think he'll be anywhere near .850 again next year, I think we'd be lucky if he hit over .725 OPS next year. And history backs that up. Personally, I trade him for what I can get and go after a different CF as I move De Aza to LF where he claims to be more comfortable (or find a different corner outfielder as plan B).

 

Dunn is owed $30M for two years. Probably overpaid if he can't get his OPS over .800, but you can't replace 41 home runs from the DH spot very cheaply.

$15mm for an .800 OPS DH is way over paid, and he most likely won't return much. We're stuck paying him most likely to produce at half his salary levels.

 

Danks is owed $42.75M for three years. Definitely below market value if he recovers from injury and becomes the old John Danks.

 

Danks is a tossup, the past two years he hasn't been healthy, who knows how he is going to return.

 

Ramirez is owed $26.5M for three years. Probably the worst contract the Sox have. That's a lot to pay for a .651 OPS no matter how good the defense is.

 

I see Ramirez getting back to around .750 next year, still a lot of money for him but passable because of the position.

 

Thornton and Crain have $5.5M and $4.5M for one year each. Probably overpaying a bit for relievers that don't close, but only one year left on those contracts.

 

Crain is a keeper, and has decent value imo. Thornton could bring back a decent prospect, but $10mm for two setup men is pricey and that money could most likely be better spent (I'd trade Thornton and bring in a cheaper alternative).

 

So there is only one contract that I would call really bad at this point.

 

As for the young talent part, there is quite a bit in the system but none that will be able to contribute in 2013. It may be a challenge to compete in 2013 but things start looking up a lot soon after that.

Well that's why I said the Sox don't have enough young talent to field a winner, how far away they are is kinda a big component of that.

[hogan873]

Rios, Dunn, Danks are horrific contracts IMO. Lexi's is bad, too because he has not taken the next step and won't. Thornton is just another arm and isn't worth that kind of loot IMO. I don't think he's tradeable either. Nobody's going to take him for that kind of money.

Horrific contracts, no. Rios is an unknown. Will he be 2012 Alex next year or will he be more like 2011? My guess is somewhere in between but closer to his 2012 numbers. So, I don't think he's grossly overpaid. Dunn...boy, I just don't know. His 41 HRs and 90+ RBIs are worth a lot, especially considering how many of those HRs came at times when they were needed. If his BA was 20 points higher (closer to his career average), his contract is fine. I think we'll see a slight improvement next year in his BA, and his power numbers will likely be steady or drop a bit. So, maybe a slight overpay. Who knows with Danks. If he returns and pitches like the John Danks we've seen before then I'm perfectly fine with his deal. If he remains injury-plagued, then it's a bad contract.

 

Rios and Ramirez might be tradeable, but unless the Sox are rebuilding (doubtful) the Sox would need to get a nice return for either one. I don't believe anyone would come seriously knocking for Dunn. And even if some team did inquire, the Sox's demands for him would be too high. I expect all three to be part of the 2013 White Sox.

[greg775]

Horrific contracts, no. Rios is an unknown. Will he be 2012 Alex next year or will he be more like 2011? My guess is somewhere in between but closer to his 2012 numbers. So, I don't think he's grossly overpaid. Dunn...boy, I just don't know. His 41 HRs and 90+ RBIs are worth a lot, especially considering how many of those HRs came at times when they were needed. If his BA was 20 points higher (closer to his career average), his contract is fine. I think we'll see a slight improvement next year in his BA, and his power numbers will likely be steady or drop a bit. So, maybe a slight overpay. Who knows with Danks. If he returns and pitches like the John Danks we've seen before then I'm perfectly fine with his deal. If he remains injury-plagued, then it's a bad contract.

 

Rios and Ramirez might be tradeable, but unless the Sox are rebuilding (doubtful) the Sox would need to get a nice return for either one. I don't believe anyone would come seriously knocking for Dunn. And even if some team did inquire, the Sox's demands for him would be too high. I expect all three to be part of the 2013 White Sox.

 

Well, if Dunn and Rios are staying and Paulie is staying, the Sox might as well sign AJ and go with the core group again and do a little bit of tinkering to try and overcome the Tigers. Cause those contracts will prevent the Sox from getting real creative.

[Eminor3rd]

Why suggest pipe dreams? Let's also trade for Mike Trout while we're at it.

 

Stay realistic. Grienke hates pitching in the Cell and we can't afford him. /idea

 

Then close the thread and start one called, "what I think the Sox do will despite what I think is best."

Edited October 3, 2012 by Eminor3rd

[hogan873]

Well, if Dunn and Rios are staying and Paulie is staying, the Sox might as well sign AJ and go with the core group again and do a little bit of tinkering to try and overcome the Tigers. Cause those contracts will prevent the Sox from getting real creative.

I agree. Even if the Sox decide to up payroll a bit to say $115M-$120M, there won't be a lot of room for big names. And I don't see the payroll being much higher than it was this year.

[Cali]

Career averages with RISP and difference over career batting average. The only guy that hits worse with RISP is Dunn.

 

Gordo .261/ +.016

PK .284/ +.001

Dunn .223/ -.017

Rios .282/ +.004

AJ .286/ +.002

 

For 2012 vs 2012 average. Only Paulie was a minus.

 

Gordo .264/ +.030

PK .281/ -.018

Dunn .212/ +.008

Rios .348/ +.044

AJ .316/ +.038

 

And?

 

When I call a player weak mentally I don't only mean their averages with RISP. It's affects every aspect of their game and in the clubhouse.

 

Also you're giving me their year totals, which were impressive to start the year and putrid down the stretch when a division title was on the line. That's the definition of mentally weak.

Edited October 3, 2012 by Cali

[JoshPR]

Looks like hahn will running the club this off season, per Jon heyman..

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/whit...Trade+Rumors%29

[GreatScott82]

1) My first move this offseason would be to sell high on Rios. You can hopefully get a quality starting pitcher in return and/or some prospects.

 

2) Say goodbye to Liriano, Myers, Peavy and Hudson.

 

3) Shock the baseball climate and sign Grienke and Hamilton.

 

4) Re-sign AJ and Youk to two year deals and take Floyd's 9.5 million option. (he is overdue for a good year)

 

 

Our payroll will likely go up to 115-120 million with these moves, but Reiny isn't getting any younger.

 

2013 Starting Lineup:

De Aza CF

Youkilis 3B

Hamilton LF

Dunn DH

Konerko 1B

Pierzynski C

Viciedo RF

Ramirez SS

Beckham 2B

 

2013 Rotation

1. Grienke R

2. Sale L

3. Danks L

4. Floyd R

5. Quintana L

 

Obviously this is my dream scenario.... who knows what KW and Hahn have in mind.

[Marty34]

Horrific contracts, no.

 

Danks contract is beyond horrific. Too many are taking for granted that he will be ok.

 

[DukeNukeEm]

1) My first move this offseason would be to sell high on Rios. You can hopefully get a quality starting pitcher in return and/or some prospects.

 

2) Say goodbye to Liriano, Myers, Peavy and Hudson.

 

3) Shock the baseball climate and sign Grienke and Hamilton.

 

4) Re-sign AJ and Youk to two year deals and take Floyd's 9.5 million option. (he is overdue for a good year)

 

 

Our payroll will likely go up to 115-120 million with these moves, but Reiny isn't getting any younger.

 

2013 Starting Lineup:

De Aza CF

Youkilis 3B

Hamilton LF

Dunn DH

Konerko 1B

Pierzynski C

Viciedo RF

Ramirez SS

Beckham 2B

 

2013 Rotation

1. Grienke R

2. Sale L

3. Danks L

4. Floyd R

5. Quintana L

 

Obviously this is my dream scenario.... who knows what KW and Hahn have in mind.

Our payroll will be closer to $150 million.

[daggins]

Also for 150MM that is not a very good team.

[JoshPR]

Man a lot of playstation moves going on here....

[greg775]

1) My first move this offseason would be to sell high on Rios. You can hopefully get a quality starting pitcher in return and/or some prospects.

 

2) Say goodbye to Liriano, Myers, Peavy and Hudson.

 

3) Shock the baseball climate and sign Grienke and Hamilton.

 

4) Re-sign AJ and Youk to two year deals and take Floyd's 9.5 million option. (he is overdue for a good year)

 

 

Our payroll will likely go up to 115-120 million with these moves, but Reiny isn't getting any younger.

 

2013 Starting Lineup:

De Aza CF

Youkilis 3B

Hamilton LF

Dunn DH

Konerko 1B

Pierzynski C

Viciedo RF

Ramirez SS

Beckham 2B

 

2013 Rotation

1. Grienke R

2. Sale L

3. Danks L

4. Floyd R

5. Quintana L

 

Obviously this is my dream scenario.... who knows what KW and Hahn have in mind.

 

Shouldn't we stop with the Greinke scenarios since he hates Chicago and that's not an option? I'd rather hear about righties we have a shot at. I would think Guthrie would come in a heartbeat, but I'm praying we stay away from ALL ROYALS not named Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Sal Perez.

[daggins]

Jeez stop with the Guthrie talk, the guy is hot garbage.

 

I'd love to get Haren on a bounce back contract but so would 29 other teams so theres that.

[2nd_city_saint787]

How much do you think Melky is gonna make next year? If they do trade Tank or Rios I'd take a flyer on him as a #2 hitter if he's going to come asat a discount.

[kitekrazy]

Man a lot of playstation moves going on here....

 

or like Phil Rodgers flipping baseball cards

 

 

I'm going to leave this up to the men who get paid for doing this. It seems like every person should be traded except for Chris Sale. Trade him too while you are at it.

 

[kitekrazy]

This, Grienke for a ton of reasons on both sides is not coming here.

 

I think he's a mental midget and comes from an organization where losing is a habit.

 

[Rowand44]

Id trade Rios in a heartbeat. Wouldn't move Danks or Dunn.

[Marty34]

Id trade Rios in a heartbeat. Wouldn't move Danks or Dunn.

 

You can't move Danks though I don't get why you wouldn't if given the choice.

[JoshPR]

or like Phil Rodgers flipping baseball cards

 

 

I'm going to leave this up to the men who get paid for doing this. It seems like every person should be traded except for Chris Sale. Trade him too while you are at it.

True, but it's a lot of people just having some fun too, nothing wrong with that:)