southsider2k5 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 12:42 PM) I just disagree with you guys...if I was a GM for a contending team and needed a LH bat NOW, I don't think the money is all that frightening. You're looking at what, $22-23 million over the next year and a half with some pretty solid historical evidence that you're going to get 60ish homers and 140-150 rbi out of him during that timeframe? I don't see why that is so repellent for a contending team. Because you are also getting 300K's, a .200ish average, and probably long stretches of horribleness where Dunn won't help you at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:45 AM) Because you are also getting 300K's, a .200ish average, and probably long stretches of horribleness where Dunn won't help you at all. Yep... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 12:45 PM) Because you are also getting 300K's, a .200ish average, and probably long stretches of horribleness where Dunn won't help you at all. Can we stop quoting the average? Please? Go dit drives me crazy on this board. Now, his .obp isn't great either but we need to reference the .obp with Dunn. The batting average is irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 12:48 PM) Can we stop quoting the average? Please? Go dit drives me crazy on this board. Now, his .obp isn't great either but we need to reference the .obp with Dunn. The batting average is irrelevant. When you are hitting .200, it is pretty much impossible to have even a decent OBP, all stat snobbery aside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 12:34 PM) Given Berkman's injuries and drop in production, I think Texas is a logical destination for Dunn, especially when you consider playoff scenarios. Detroit's RH dominant staff...you need all of the LH power bats you can get in the lineup. Maybe an NL team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:49 AM) When you are hitting .200, it is pretty much impossible to have even a decent OBP, all stat snobbery aside. He's an .800 OPS player with 40 home run and 90-100 rbi production....there just aren't many bats like that available. The salary isn't something to scoff at, but I don't think it's prohibitive either. I think if Dunn keeps hitting as he has been for the last two months, someone will take him off our hands come the end of the month AND give us a decent prospect or two for him. You know if we were in the race we would Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 12:52 PM) He's an .800 OPS player with 40 home run and 90-100 rbi production....there just aren't many bats like that available. The salary isn't something to scoff at, but I don't think it's prohibitive either. I think if Dunn keeps hitting as he has been for the last two months, someone will take him off our hands come the end of the month AND give us a decent prospect or two for him. You know if we were in the race we would I think if we were talking about the last year of his deal, maybe. But with a whole other year at $15 million? I can't see it. Again, what would Dunn get if he were a free agent right now? $5 million? $10 million? It sure wouldn't be a long term deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:58 AM) I think if we were talking about the last year of his deal, maybe. But with a whole other year at $15 million? I can't see it. Again, what would Dunn get if he were a free agent right now? $5 million? $10 million? It sure wouldn't be a long term deal. Yeah, I agree, he probably wouldn't, but he's NOT a free agent. And the only way to acquire this type of impact bat NOW is to accept what he makes next year, just like any available bat that isn't in the last year of his deal. If you look at the available bats right now, with "now" being the operative word, I don't know that you're going to find one that is comparable in terms of the production he offers and the contract he brings with him. Let's just say Dunn is in the last year of his deal this year...and he was going to get a one year deal next year. What would it be for? $8 millionish? maybe 10 or 12 tops? Is the additional 5-7 million you're paying to acquire him RIGHT NOW really enough to dissuade a team? Maybe some, but not all, IMHO anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:07 PM) Yeah, I agree, he probably wouldn't, but he's NOT a free agent. And the only way to acquire this type of impact bat NOW is to accept what he makes next year, just like any available bat that isn't in the last year of his deal. If you look at the available bats right now, with "now" being the operative word, I don't know that you're going to find one that is comparable in terms of the production he offers and the contract he brings with him. Let's just say Dunn is in the last year of his deal this year...and he was going to get a one year deal next year. What would it be for? $8 millionish? maybe 10 or 12 tops? Is the additional 5-7 million you're paying to acquire him RIGHT NOW really enough to dissuade a team? Maybe some, but not all, IMHO anyways. If Dunn is dealt, it will be a deal where the Sox put money in to get someone good back. I would be shocked to hear that anyone claimed him if he hit waivers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulstar Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 12:48 PM) Can we stop quoting the average? Please? Go dit drives me crazy on this board. Now, his .obp isn't great either but we need to reference the .obp with Dunn. The batting average is irrelevant. Not everyone believes that AVG is an outdated and irrelevant stat. Sure, it varies for the type of player and production you want, but when there is a good chance someone bats below .250 and hovers around that .200 mark, there is no reason BA shouldn't be taken into consideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 05:52 PM) He's an .800 OPS player with 40 home run and 90-100 rbi production....there just aren't many bats like that available. The salary isn't something to scoff at, but I don't think it's prohibitive either. I think if Dunn keeps hitting as he has been for the last two months, someone will take him off our hands come the end of the month AND give us a decent prospect or two for him. You know if we were in the race we would I've been thinking about this. I still say there's no way in hell anybody takes Dunn off the Sox hands. Sox paid him an insane amount of money. He'll still be here striking out until the final day of that deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:21 PM) I've been thinking about this. I still say there's no way in hell anybody takes Dunn off the Sox hands. Sox paid him an insane amount of money. He'll still be here striking out until the final day of that deal. The Sox did not pay him an insane amount of money. Ryan Howard makes an insane amount of money. He is not untradeable, but would need to go to the right situation to be successful. Trading Dunn is not going to net a top ten prospect, but he does have value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:21 PM) I've been thinking about this. I still say there's no way in hell anybody takes Dunn off the Sox hands. Sox paid him an insane amount of money. He'll still be here striking out until the final day of that deal. The contract the Sox gave Dunn was fair for his level of production to that point. The problem is he hasn't been the same player since then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:27 PM) The Sox did not pay him an insane amount of money. Ryan Howard makes an insane amount of money. He is not untradeable, but would need to go to the right situation to be successful. Trading Dunn is not going to net a top ten prospect, but he does have value. But...his value is less than the $20 million currently remaining on his contract by a fairly substantial amount. If someone is willing to take that on, they're already paying a premium price to try to supplement a need for this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:21 PM) I've been thinking about this. I still say there's no way in hell anybody takes Dunn off the Sox hands. Sox paid him an insane amount of money. He'll still be here striking out until the final day of that deal. Insane money? Thats just ridiculous. Carl Crawford got insane money. Jayson Werth got insane money. Dunn got a fairly team friendly deal. He's also a hard hitter to judge. I would guess he makes more hard outs than a lot of hitters because the shift just kills him. If I was running a team where money wasn't a huge issue, I'd love to have him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 (edited) OPS drives me nuts more than AVG. Because if you quote OPS you're "trying" to be "more advanced" while using a stat that the sabermetric community abandoned as obsolete like 10 years ago. I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again: wOBA and wRC+ weigh everything a player does at the plate with precise values that correspond directly to the amount of runs each adds or subtracts in today's run environment. They are the perfect numbers for settling this debate over whether or not Adam Dunn is good because homers or bad because strikeouts. Use these numbers that tell you mathematically which of them has a larger affect on his value! When John Thorn invented OPS like 500 years ago he immediately pointed out that it was flawed because it doesn't properly weigh the difference between avoiding outs and moving runners. wOBA and wRC+ do! And wRC+ is even park and league-adjusted. Edited July 17, 2013 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:21 PM) I've been thinking about this. I still say there's no way in hell anybody takes Dunn off the Sox hands. Sox paid him an insane amount of money. He'll still be here striking out until the final day of that deal. Your logic is so flawed across so many topics it is mind numbing. Dunn is overpaid, for sure. But not by much. If he was a FA after this year, I bet he'd sign a 2 or 3 year deal between $10-$12 per annum. There are 35-40 players who make more money in 2013 that Adam Dunn. He is currently tied for 5th in MLB in HRs, which is what he was brought in here to do. He is tied for 18th in MLB in RBI, the other thing he was brought in here to do. Dunn has flat out been one of the worst players in baseball at times with the SOX, but at others he has been exactly what they thought they were getting when the signed him. If he a flawed player? For sure. Adam has been overpaid for the production he has provided, but insane is nowhere near the right word to describe his salary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:33 PM) OPS drives me nuts more than AVG. Because if you quote OPS you're "trying" to be "more advanced" while using a stat that the sabermetric community abandoned as obsolete like 10 years ago. I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again: wOBA and wRC+ weigh everything a player does at the plate with precise values that correspond directly to the amount of runs each adds or subtracts in today's run environment. They are the perfect numbers for settling this debate over whether or not Adam Dunn is good because homers or bad because strikeouts. Use these numbers that tell you mathematically which of them has a larger affect on his value! When Bill James invented OPS like 500 years ago he immediately pointed out that it was flawed because it doesn't properly weigh the difference between avoiding outs and moving runners. wOBA and wRC+ do! And wRC+ is even park and league-adjusted. But at least for now, we're mentally calibrated on OPS. I know what a .900 OPS hitter is doing, I know what an .800 OPS hitter is doing, I know what a .700 hitter is doing, I know what a .600 OPS hitter was doing. When I quote those numbers, everyone knows roughly what that hitter is doing without me defining the standard. If you post RC+, great, but you have to calibrate me in the same post, I'm just not set on it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) But at least for now, we're mentally calibrated on OPS. I know what a .900 OPS hitter is doing, I know what an .800 OPS hitter is doing, I know what a .700 hitter is doing, I know what a .600 OPS hitter was doing. When I quote those numbers, everyone knows roughly what that hitter is doing without me defining the standard. If you post RC+, great, but you have to calibrate me in the same post, I'm just not set on it yet. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 OPS has just become accepted for non-stat heads. It's going to be used a lot in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Considering it wasn't so long ago most of this board wanted Dunn to either retire or the White Sox to outright release him, a couple of the posts here amuse me. First off, Adam Dunn is overpaid. He's has no defensive value. He doesn't do anything for you with his legs. He has been getting on base the last month and a half at about a .400 clip, but to expect that to continue is insane. He hits homers at a clip that rivals most players not named Chris Davis. Is there $15 million a year value in that? No way. Is there value in that to give you back a decent prospect? You would be laughed at. The Sox can't get any interest in Ramirez and are finding the pickings slim for Rios. They both offer you more all around anyway, and are cheaper. As I have stated, Dunn is one of the few reasons to turn the game on anymore, but the chances he keeps his hot streak up are pretty slim. He still will hit around 40 homers because that is what he does, but unfortunately, unless the Sox pay his salary or get very creative, Adam Dunn alone isn't going anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 OPS has just become accepted for non-stat heads. It's going to be used a lot in the future. Yes, and the difference between OPS and the more advanced saber-stats is that while OPS does not tell the whole story, it's still a rate stat easy to compute and understand, along the same vein as AVG. I'm still a little bit leery of using stuff like WAR and RC, because once you start making adjustments for things like park factor and such, you are introducing some margin of error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Considering it wasn't so long ago most of this board wanted Dunn to either retire or the White Sox to outright release him, a couple of the posts here amuse me. First off, Adam Dunn is overpaid. He's has no defensive value. He doesn't do anything for you with his legs. He has been getting on base the last month and a half at about a .400 clip, but to expect that to continue is insane. He hits homers at a clip that rivals most players not named Chris Davis. Is there $15 million a year value in that? No way. Is there value in that to give you back a decent prospect? You would be laughed at. The Sox can't get any interest in Ramirez and are finding the pickings slim for Rios. They both offer you more all around anyway, and are cheaper. As I have stated, Dunn is one of the few reasons to turn the game on anymore, but the chances he keeps his hot streak up are pretty slim. He still will hit around 40 homers because that is what he does, but unfortunately, unless the Sox pay his salary or get very creative, Adam Dunn alone isn't going anywhere. If you went out this December and tried to sign a FA 1B/DH who you expected to put up a .350 OBP and .490 SLG, how much do you think it would take? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) But at least for now, we're mentally calibrated on OPS. I know what a .900 OPS hitter is doing, I know what an .800 OPS hitter is doing, I know what a .700 hitter is doing, I know what a .600 OPS hitter was doing. When I quote those numbers, everyone knows roughly what that hitter is doing without me defining the standard. If you post RC+, great, but you have to calibrate me in the same post, I'm just not set on it yet. Fair criticism! For wRC+, league average is always set to 100, and each point represents a 1% deviation. So, Adam Dunn's wRC+ is currently 110, meaning he is hitting 10% better than league average. Shockingly, 2013 DH's are averaging a just 107 wRC+ so far. This number is park-adjusted. wOBA works more like slash stats. It is scaled to be roughly equal to OBP, so if you're trying to judge a good or bad wOBA, ask yourself how you'd judge it if it was OBP. Adam Dunn's wOBA this year is .339, which you can compare directly to other players without the context of league average or park adjustment or whatever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:48 PM) If you went out this December and tried to sign a FA 1B/DH who you expected to put up a .350 OBP and .490 SLG, how much do you think it would take? I bet Kendrys Morales will be less than $10 million a year. He hasn't made what it will cost for Dunn in 2014 his entire career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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