2014-2015 NFL Football thread

[iamshack]

People need to stop talking in absolutes in regards to Jay and whether the guy can win.

 

The Bears played in a Conference Championship game a few years back, which, last time I checked, is considered "winning." If you are defining "winning" as winning the Super Bowl, there is nothing you can say to me to convince me that the Bears had no chance of winning that game and ultimately making the Super Bowl. The Bears have also been on the cusp of making the playoffs in other seasons with Cutler.

 

Is Cutler the best quarterback in the NFL? No. Is he in the top 10? Probably not. However, can a team "win" with Jay Cutler? Absolutely, and to say otherwise is simply contradictory to recent history.

Edited November 17, 2014 by iamshack

[StrangeSox]

The counterpoint to that would be that Cutler seems to have regressed this year.

[TheTruth05]

People need to stop talking in absolutes in regards to Jay and whether the guy can win.

 

The Bears played in a Conference Championship game a few years back, which, last time I checked, is considered "winning." If you are defining "winning" as winning the Super Bowl, there is nothing you can say to me to convince me that the Bears had no chance of winning that game and ultimately making the Super Bowl. The Bears have also been on the cusp of making the playoffs in other seasons with Cutler.

 

Is Cutler the best quarterback in the NFL? No. Is he in the top 10? Probably not. However, can a team "win" with Jay Cutler? Absolutely, and to say otherwise is simply contradictory to recent history.

 

Cutler has to beat the Bears #1 enemy in the Packers to be a winner. 1-10,21 picks, and 67.1 qbr against the team standing in the way of "winning" the division just doesn't cut it.

[Balta1701]

The counterpoint to that would be that Cutler seems to have regressed this year.

His numbers on most counts actually seem better than last year. Higher completion %age, higher rating, more TD, more yards, similar Y/A. And yet the offense is performing far, far worse.

[bmags]

After the draft, I think I read every bears article written through June.

 

I didn't even watch yesterday. 5k no shows to the game as well. Fun team.

[chw42]

People need to stop talking in absolutes in regards to Jay and whether the guy can win.

 

The Bears played in a Conference Championship game a few years back, which, last time I checked, is considered "winning." If you are defining "winning" as winning the Super Bowl, there is nothing you can say to me to convince me that the Bears had no chance of winning that game and ultimately making the Super Bowl. The Bears have also been on the cusp of making the playoffs in other seasons with Cutler.

 

Is Cutler the best quarterback in the NFL? No. Is he in the top 10? Probably not. However, can a team "win" with Jay Cutler? Absolutely, and to say otherwise is simply contradictory to recent history.

 

For real. Jenks treats Cutler like he's worthless. His last response to my post more or less proved that. The truth is that he's a mediocre to decent QB who can't win you games single-handedly like Rodgers or Manning. But he's also better than the majority of QBs in the NFL.

[knightni]

He's in the Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford area.

[chw42]

He's in the Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford area.

 

And most of those guys are paid close to what he's paid. That's just how the NFL is today.

Edited November 17, 2014 by chw42

[bmags]

I would take Stafford/Newton anyday.

[GoSox05]

Stafford has been pretty average this year. I thought he would have a big year.

[Rowand44]

Stafford has been pretty average this year. I thought he would have a big year.

Calvin has been hurt a lot of it.

[Jake]

Notes from PFF:

 

Worst cumulative day of grades for the offense this year, ironically enough. Alshon and Brandon both had strong positive grades, nobody else shined. Cutler was harmed by turnovers, penalty. Brian De La Puente had the worst grade, but the entire line short of Long had a bad game.

 

Defense has its best game of the year, grade-wise. Zero players fell into the strong negative grade range. Jared Allen with top grade of the day on strength of pass rush. Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, Ryan Mundy all had strong showings as well. Everyone else was in the okay range, basically. We had 16 hurries on 33 passing downs, which is pretty impressive.

 

For the season, in terms of rank, the offense and defense are converging. Defense has 19th best team grade now. Offense 15th. Our offense doesn't have any particular weakness by these measures. For the defense, we ironically have a strength in run defense, ranking 10th in that.

 

Unsurprisingly, special teams ranks dead last.

 

Worth noting that Shea only played 18 snaps yesterday (also note that MIN only managed 47 snaps, by far the least our defense has faced this year).

[bmags]

I mean, why run the ball when you can just pass it 60 yards to an uncovered receiver.

[2nd_city_saint787]

PFFers can you telll me how long Jay has had to throw this year vs last?

 

He seems to consistently have no time and it wasn't until yesterday that he really started to create time with his feet. Why it took so long for that to happen is beyond me. Perhaps Trestman wanted him to be more of a pocket passer, for whatever reason, and he stuck to it to a fault.

[Chisoxfn]

PFFers can you telll me how long Jay has had to throw this year vs last?

 

He seems to consistently have no time and it wasn't until yesterday that he really started to create time with his feet. Why it took so long for that to happen is beyond me. Perhaps Trestman wanted him to be more of a pocket passer, for whatever reason, and he stuck to it to a fault.

I think that is the case. There were some quotes yesterday talking about how it was by design and they plan to do more of it going forward.

[Big Hurtin]

So where is Rodgers going to rank on the all time QB list when he's done? He's the best I've ever seen, better than Peyton and Brady...

It's hard to rank QBs from different eras. Watch some old NFL Films and you'll see QBs getting lit up. Point being, guys couldn't be upright often enough to compile the stats. I think regarding those 3, it would be Brady, Manning, and then Rodgers. Rodgers could rank higher eventually because he has more of his career in front of him than those two.

[LittleHurt05]

After the draft, I think I read every bears article written through June.

 

I didn't even watch yesterday. 5k no shows to the game as well. Fun team.

 

The empty seats were definitely noticeable, there would have been more if not for all the Vikings fans. I imagine there will be way less Tampa fans Sunday, so I expect even more no shows.

[chw42]

I would take Stafford/Newton anyday.

 

Stafford has games where he absolutely does not show up, just like Cutler.

 

In reality, he's only had one good year back when he threw for over 5000 yards. His other years have been the definition of mediocre.

[Jake]

PFFers can you telll me how long Jay has had to throw this year vs last?

 

He seems to consistently have no time and it wasn't until yesterday that he really started to create time with his feet. Why it took so long for that to happen is beyond me. Perhaps Trestman wanted him to be more of a pocket passer, for whatever reason, and he stuck to it to a fault.

 

I'm going to preface this with the fact that there's no good way to definitively say how much time he averages - every time he throws, we don't know whether he had to do it right then to avoid a sack or might have had several more seconds. Likewise, we don't know if the plays he is sacked are just like every other play - with the exception that he held on a split-second longer - or if he gets sacked because the rush was much faster. You'll notice that the best QBs tend to have the lowest times.

 

Anyway...

2014 averages times:

To throw - 2.57 (7th fastest out of 29 QBs, Peyton Manning fastest)

To sack - 3.36 (13th fastest, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning fastest)

To scramble - 4.65 (9th fastest, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning fastest)

 

83.0 NFL QB rating on plays that take 2.6 seconds or more before throw/sack/scramble. 102.5 NFL QB rating on plays that resolve quicker than 2.6 seconds.

 

In terms of pressure, he's at 30% of drop backs, making him only the 20th most pressured QB out of 29.

 

2013:

To throw - 2.75 (13th out of 27, Peyton Manning fastest)

To sack - 3.81 (9th out of 27, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning fastest)

To scramble - 4.59 (5th out of 27, Eli Manning fastest)

 

80.3 NFL QB rating on plays that take 2.6 seconds or more before throw/sack/scramble. 99 NFL QB rating on plays where one of those things happens before 2.6 seconds.

 

Was pressured on 39% of drop backs, 8th most out of 29.

 

By most indications, not much has changed in terms of pass protection. Time to sack is the only thing that has really changed in terms of timing, but it's hard to make meaning of it when the line is allowing fewer pressures per drop back.

[Kyyle23]

Adrian Peterson suspended without pay for the rest of the year

[Jenksismyhero]

For real. Jenks treats Cutler like he's worthless. His last response to my post more or less proved that. The truth is that he's a mediocre to decent QB who can't win you games single-handedly like Rodgers or Manning. But he's also better than the majority of QBs in the NFL.

 

QB's I'd rather have at this point for sure:

 

Rodgers

Rivers

Manning

Romo

Brady

Brees

Luck

Roethlisberger

Ryan

Wilson

Stafford

Kaep

Tannehill

 

Maybe:

 

Foles

Palmer (probably damaged goods now though)

Smith

 

THEN Cutler. So at best, middle of the pack. Which is fine. That's great. He's better than 99% of people out there at playing QB. But for what he's paid, for what the Bears have done the last 6 seasons to make it work, the fact is it really hasn't. He's very average on an offense stacked with weapons. As SS pointed out, he's regressed this year. He's NEVER gotten over his terrible foot work, his propensity to throw awful passes and turn the ball over. If anything his increase last year is due to having some weapons, but it's not like he's playing the game any differently.

 

And here's the bigger point: Whether he's 20th best or 10th best, it really doesn't matter. He's not on the top tier, which means the Bears aren't winning any time soon. Throughout the history of the game teams have won SB's with great QB's or average QB's with great defenses. We have neither. And by the time you fix the defense (2-3 seasons, assuming the next coach doesn't radically change the system), Cutler's that much older, Forte is that much older, Marshall has probably killed someone and is out of the league, etc.

 

The mistake was not drafting or signing a young QB the last 3 seasons. A potential successor should have been on the roster at some point because no one in their right mind was 100% sold on Cutler being a franchise, top level QB. It was always "but if he ____, then ____."

 

And guess what, now we're back to excuse No. 362: "but if he gets a good coach who isn't in over his head, then he can be successful."

[StrangeSox]

As imperfect as a lot of the QBs on that list are, I don't know that I can really make a strong case for Cutler over any of them.

[LittleHurt05]

Cutler/Rivers/Ryan/Stafford/Romo, I feel like those are all guys that put you in NFL purgatory. They aren't worth the money you are forced to pay them, but the even lesser options scare the s*** out of you.

 

That being said, Eli Manning & Joe Flacco have won 3 of the last 7 Super Bowls, so you can win one with those types of QBs, but everything else has to go your way.

[GoSox05]

I would probably add Dalton to that list.

 

Also Bortles and Carr. They haven't been great this year, but they are rookies with huge upside.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm going to preface this with the fact that there's no good way to definitively say how much time he averages - every time he throws, we don't know whether he had to do it right then to avoid a sack or might have had several more seconds. Likewise, we don't know if the plays he is sacked are just like every other play - with the exception that he held on a split-second longer - or if he gets sacked because the rush was much faster. You'll notice that the best QBs tend to have the lowest times.

 

Anyway...

2014 averages times:

To throw - 2.57 (7th fastest out of 29 QBs, Peyton Manning fastest)

To sack - 3.36 (13th fastest, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning fastest)

To scramble - 4.65 (9th fastest, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning fastest)

 

83.0 NFL QB rating on plays that take 2.6 seconds or more before throw/sack/scramble. 102.5 NFL QB rating on plays that resolve quicker than 2.6 seconds.

 

In terms of pressure, he's at 30% of drop backs, making him only the 20th most pressured QB out of 29.

 

2013:

To throw - 2.75 (13th out of 27, Peyton Manning fastest)

To sack - 3.81 (9th out of 27, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning fastest)

To scramble - 4.59 (5th out of 27, Eli Manning fastest)

 

80.3 NFL QB rating on plays that take 2.6 seconds or more before throw/sack/scramble. 99 NFL QB rating on plays where one of those things happens before 2.6 seconds.

 

Was pressured on 39% of drop backs, 8th most out of 29.

 

By most indications, not much has changed in terms of pass protection. Time to sack is the only thing that has really changed in terms of timing, but it's hard to make meaning of it when the line is allowing fewer pressures per drop back.

 

Thanks for this.

 

Isn't .18 seconds a lot in the NFL though. I know when talking about 40 times there's a big difference between a 4.40 and a 4.58.

 

Real surprised he was pressured more last year. Though he is throwing a lot more quick passes which could make that % drop quite a bit. When trying to do anything other than those quick passes it seems like there's always pressure.