Victor Martinez is White Sox target

[Balta1701]

Then we should probably close the thread because I can't see the White Sox giving up even a 2nd rounder to sign a 36 year old DH.

One thing worth thinking about is that if the Sox did sign another player as well, one of the starting pitchers, then VMart could only cost them their 3rd rounder.

 

They could then potentially go quite a ways under slot in round 1 and still have enough money left to put together a full draft overall.

[Dick Allen]

Based on the Forbes numbers, the White Sox lost ~$5 million last year with a $110 million payroll. They have seen a continued erosion of 1000 tickets sold per game so far this season, a number that is likely to increase before the year ends since we still have the crappy late-september attendances to get through. Their new revenue stream in 2014 is the MLB national TV deal money, which offsets a portion of the erosion in ticket sales since 2013, but they're also reportedly near the bottom of the league in TV ratings and advertising money right now.

 

All of this has worked together to make the White Sox in 2014 profitable at a level of $91 million based on public statements, but there is no new revenue stream coming onto the table next year compared to this year. The continued erosion of revenues at the gate and in the ballpark we're witnessing means that if the team holds steady at $91 million, they're closer to their break-even point than this year and if they go beyond it there's a good chance they go into the red unless they can push ticket sales the other way.

 

I can't give you exact numbers to within a million dollars, but I think it's pretty clear that in 2014 their break-even payroll would be in the range of $100 million and they would have every reason to expect continued erosion of ticket sales by about 1000/game next year, along with little/no boost in ratings or ad sales. If they'd signed Tanaka at what they'd offered him they'd very likely be in the red for another season. I could see them doing that if a 27 year old good fit was on the free agent market. I cannot see them doing that for 34-36 year old stopgaps.

What is their profit or loss with Silver Chalice? And have they spent or paid out all of their profits over the years? And where were they getting the money to pay Tanaka and his posting fee?

 

[Balta1701]

What is their profit or loss with Silver Chalice? And have they spent or paid out all of their profits over the years? And where were they getting the money to pay Tanaka and his posting fee?

Generally over the years I think the White Sox org takes a narrow profit most years, on average. They have had a couple losing money seasons, but last year was the big downside.

 

Presumably the hope with Tanaka would have been that had they lost money again in 2014 with him, the money coming off the 2015 books could help pay for him. They may well have even offered a backloaded deal in that case. The only reason they were willing to do that though is that it was a long-term solution, not a short term stopgap for a guy in his late 30s.

[brian310]

IF we are to sign a DH/1B type of bat while surrendering a second round draft pick, also consider that Tank could likely be moved for something that could help us sooner that is on a roster as he should not be an outfielder on any team. This is my thoughts anyway. If you sign a DH only type, play Semien in left to get him at bats or sign another outfielder (Cabrera?) and trade Tank.

[Dick Allen]

Generally over the years I think the White Sox org takes a narrow profit most years, on average. They have had a couple losing money seasons, but last year was the big downside.

 

Presumably the hope with Tanaka would have been that had they lost money again in 2014 with him, the money coming off the 2015 books could help pay for him. They may well have even offered a backloaded deal in that case. The only reason they were willing to do that though is that it was a long-term solution, not a short term stopgap for a guy in his late 30s.

They could have backloaded but there was that posting fee. According to Forbes they have profited well over $100 million this century.

 

[LDF]

 

hey Balta, by any chance the forbes mag you were reading about the profit and loss,

do you know if you have a link to it or what month it is?

[southsider2k5]

Balta, I'm amazed that your able to determine the White Sox's break even-point so accurately, but you can't account for their $46M in payroll obligations next year.

 

John Danks $15,750,000

Alexei Ramirez $10,000,000

Jose Abreu $8,666,666

Chris Sale $6,000,000

Jeff Keppinger $4,500,000

Jose Quintana $1,000,000

Felipe Paulino $250,000

 

The $46M already includes Keppinger's corpse and Paulino's buyout. You're right about the arb guys and the total cost of all the minimum salaries however, so we probably are near $60M to field a full roster.

 

Either way, I have no doubt the Sox will be able to afford a $100M payroll next year, regardless of if they actually spend it. While I'm impressed that you have direct access to the Sox's financials, you've yet to convince me that we're approaching some $90M payroll limitation, especially when you have no insight into their 2015 revenue forecasts that their payroll budget will be based on.

 

All it takes is a bit of history, the Forbes numbers, and some common sense.

[Chicago White Sox]

All it takes is a bit of history, the Forbes numbers, and some common sense.

Yup, let's start with some history, six out of the seven years prior to this season the Sox had a $100M+ payroll. And then let's consider your beloved Forbes numbers, where the Sox lost $3M last year with a $120M payroll. Now add some common sense, like an additional $20M in national TV money and the fact that the Sox offered Tanaka a seven figure deal this past offseason, and it's easy to see a $100M payroll next year is beyond a reasonable assumption.

[Balta1701]

Yup, let's start with some history, six out of the seven years prior to this season the Sox had a $100M+ payroll. And then let's consider your beloved Forbes numbers, where the Sox lost $3M last year with a $120M payroll. Now add some common sense, like an additional $20M in national TV money and the fact that the Sox offered Tanaka a seven figure deal this past offseason, and it's easy to see a $100M payroll next year is beyond a reasonable assumption.

The White Sox also traded away $10 million+ in salary during the season in the form of Thornton and Peavy last year.

[gosox41]

I feel like, especially given that we are talking about the White Sox, that we'll sign him for a bunch and get no production out of him as father time hits him hard and fast

 

 

I agree. I wouldn't sign him. He will get old quickly.

 

Seriously, if this team is about building for the future, then how does signing a 36 year old to a big contract help? As long as Danks/Carroll/Rienzo, etc are our 3-5 starters we aren't winning anything with or without VM.

 

 

Bob

[Y2Jimmy0]

One thing worth thinking about is that if the Sox did sign another player as well, one of the starting pitchers, then VMart could only cost them their 3rd rounder.

 

They could then potentially go quite a ways under slot in round 1 and still have enough money left to put together a full draft overall.

 

 

I get what you are saying, Balta. It gets tricky though because then you lose the entire slot amounts for the 2nd and 3rd rounder.

[Real]

Sox end up with another teams sloppy seconds/thirds because they lacked the depth/money to acquire them when they were in their prime?

 

Griffey Jr, Manny, Liriano, Peavy, Rios

 

I'm sure there are more I can't think of

 

Smh

 

I'm sure we will have Cabrera in 6 years as well when detroit pays us to take him

 

Lol

Edited August 31, 2014 by Real

[southsider2k5]

Yup, let's start with some history, six out of the seven years prior to this season the Sox had a $100M+ payroll. And then let's consider your beloved Forbes numbers, where the Sox lost $3M last year with a $120M payroll. Now add some common sense, like an additional $20M in national TV money and the fact that the Sox offered Tanaka a seven figure deal this past offseason, and it's easy to see a $100M payroll next year is beyond a reasonable assumption.

 

Then add back the Abreu signing bonus, plus the much higher draft costs, plus the losses at the gates, plus the losses of advertising, etc.

[spiderman]

Then add back the Abreu signing bonus, plus the much higher draft costs, plus the losses at the gates, plus the losses of advertising, etc.

 

Maybe you answered already, but what do you view as a reasonable payroll for the White Sox next season. If the low end is $60M, what do you expect that they will do?

 

[ChiSoxJon]

Sox end up with another teams sloppy seconds/thirds because they lacked the depth/money to acquire them when they were in their prime?

 

Griffey Jr, Manny, Liriano, Peavy, Rios

 

I'm sure there are more I can't think of

 

Smh

 

I'm sure we will have Cabrera in 6 years as well when detroit pays us to take him

 

Lol

Missed Dunn too, this V-Mart rumor is scaring me a little, but I'm not a fan of this FA class, just grab Masterson for cheap and I'll be thrilled, V-Mart is far passed his prime regardless of numbers, best years were in CLE

[max power]

I really don't want victor. He is 36. His eyes could deteriorate the slightest bit this offseason, enough to make him a much worse hitter. Then we have another old bad one dimensional player. Who else is a free agent?

[Dick Allen]

Missed Dunn too, this V-Mart rumor is scaring me a little, but I'm not a fan of this FA class, just grab Masterson for cheap and I'll be thrilled, V-Mart is far passed his prime regardless of numbers, best years were in CLE

He has been hitting better than ever. He put up better numbers in Boston and Detroit than Cleveland. You never know with a guy his age. He could be Torii Hunter and be fine or he could be Paulie, come up lame, and never be the same. The Sox need an impact bat. He definitely is one. I still think it is a longshot they land him, but it probably is better than trading several prospects for someone similar or hoping they can turn around a guy struggling.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I don't like this rumor because V-Mart is having a career year and is going to demand a lot this offseason. I'd rather the Sox sign someone that can be a building block to the future, not handcuff themselves with another bad contract after finally getting rid of one (Dunn).

[witesoxfan]

I take him he can protect abreu.

 

Lineup protection is a myth.

 

Eventually, it will become an idea left in the past.

[max power]

Lineup protection is a myth.

 

Eventually, it will become an idea left in the past.

Seriously? Do you have an explanation for this?

Edited August 31, 2014 by MAX

[Dick Allen]

Lineup protection is a myth.

 

Eventually, it will become an idea left in the past.

It may be overstated, but is certainly not a myth. A guy like Martinez behind Abreu keeps the bat in his hands in many situations. And if he is in front of him and on base, many pitchers tend to be not as effective in the stretch or with a little more pressure on them.

[southsider2k5]

Maybe you answered already, but what do you view as a reasonable payroll for the White Sox next season. If the low end is $60M, what do you expect that they will do?

 

My guess is the 80-90 million range, though it wouldn't shock me if they came in a bit less simply because they didn't get their initial targets and don't want to spend, just to spend.

[The Wiz]

Lineup protection is a myth.

 

Eventually, it will become an idea left in the past.

So if you are saying having Gordon Beckham batting behind Jose Abreu wouldn't be any better or worse for Abreu than having Giancarlo Stanton behind him, I would have to say without a doubt that you are unequivocally wrong.

[The Wiz]

I too am worried about his age and how it would relate to his performance, but it is also because of his age I wouldn't be too worried about any deal he could get because there is no way he gets a deal longer than 3 years and it is unlikely that a 3 year deal could cripple a team financially.

[Andy the Clown]

4 years $60M(my guess) and lose a draft pick for a 34 year old having a career year? No thanks.

 

Exactly. Let him rot in Detroit.