2015 Offseason

[Quin]

Am I reading the last few pages correctly? Trade Q because he's overrated and merely a #3/4, keep Danks and his almost 5 ERA who's at best a #5, sign Anderson and McCarthy which both have injury histories only to kick Noesi to the curb despite making quite an improvement in a short amount of time? I'll ask again, am I reading this right?

 

People seem to think that Quintana will immediately flop tomorrow. I feel like this has to do with how we acquired him.

[thxfrthmmrs]

No that's whats free agency is for. Im trading Quintana, with the thought that Rodon will take his spot in the rotation some point during the season. I would sign Brandon McCarthy to a contract and he would be my new number 2 going forward in 2015, and I would sign Brett Anderon to a short term contract (2 years max) that is also heavy on incentives, and if he stays healthy and pitches well I would flip him at the deadline.

 

ROTATION:

Sale,

McCarthy,

Danks,

Noesi,

Anderson.

 

1. That's maybe how you would run a team in MLB 2K but not in real life baseball.

 

2. Let's even say if you got Anderson on a a good deal and he's proven he can stay healthy, you would want to stash him for better value the year following (teams won't pay high prices for a fragile pitcher who's proven he can stay healthy for half a year), or keep him simply because he's good and you are playing to win.

 

3. It doesn't make sense to start Rodon in the bullpen next year. You'd rather start him in the minors to stretch him out, and let him work on his offspeed stuff, something he doesn't get to do as a reliever. Not to mention it goes against the notion of saving his service time.

 

[BlackSox13]

People seem to think that Quintana will immediately flop tomorrow. I feel like this has to do with how we acquired him.

Good grief, what more does the guy have to do? It sounds almost like a few want him to flop just so they can say I told ya so.

 

Q is putting up numbers very similar to Buehrle yet Q is only a #3/4 while Buehrle was a #1, all be it an unconventional #1.

 

Could it be a psychological thing? I mean, could Sale and his numbers be making Q look rather pedestrian despite actually being pretty good numbers?

[Boopa1219]

So your number 2 starter is oft injured and has never made 30 starts in a season before this year (assuming he makes 2 more starts). You're #3 starter sucks. You're #4 starter has pitched like a #5 at best during his major league career and your #5 starter is guaranteed to get injured. That seems like a recipe for a great season.

 

Brandon McCarthy is a positive addition to any rotation, and yes while he has never made 30 starts in a season, I would not let that detract me from signing him.

 

John Danks dose not suck, he is still recovering from his injury and next year I expect a more consistent year from him, 3 years removed from his injury.

 

Noesi can be your 4 or 5 starter going into next year however, I still see the team signing a 'flip candidate', but in this scenario they sign Andseron who also be a 4 or 5, but since I think you should avoid starting two lefties back to back in the rotation I made him the 5, and Noesi the 4. Amder is injury prone but IF he stays healthy, he could have a good year pitching at US Cellular as a ground ball pitcher.

[LDF]

I think this point gets overlooked a lot because it's so obvious, but this is why free agent signing isn't optimal. You have a 30 year old in Nick Markakis who could legitimately get anywhere between a 1 year, prove it sort of deal or a 4 year, fairly high AAV sort of deal, and anywhere in between. Note that those do not include the possibility of a QO which will hurt his value and remove a number of teams from his bidding as they will look to acquire someone else who does not cost a draft pick. Due to the complexity of the free agent market and having difficult evaluating it at this point in the process, it's hard to count on free agents. We had a few people on here indicating the Sox were going to be in the Hunter Pence sweepstakes too, and willing to bid a significant amount, until he re-signed with the Giants on a monster deal. They were going to be in on Brian McCann (and I think, either directly or indirectly, Hahn even mentioned his name) until the Yankees gave him a mega deal.

 

If you trade, you can typically work with 1 party and worry less about others. You pick up a little more certainty (both in terms of what it will cost both player and financially) and predictability in the trade market in exchange for giving up players you have for control. The Sox have favored that market a little more in the past.

 

It's going to be an interesting offseason, perhaps just as much if not moreso than last year.

 

excellent point....... damn good.

[LDF]

If you want a good tradeable asset, the one to look at (IMO) is Alexei. If the Sox feel that Sanchez or Semien (or both) is/are ready to be major league shortstops, Alexei will get you good value in return in a trade.

 

There are other pieces that could be traded as well, but either for lesser returns, or at the profound detriment of the starting rotation.

 

you got a good point. the cuban factor i was worried about it, now it is gone with the first yr together.

 

however i weak point, how much offense will the sox sacrifice at ss from this trade.

Edited September 3, 2014 by LDF

[LDF]

I think this post actually is a great argument for why we shouldn't be so flippant with good starting pitching with good contracts.

 

hmmmm interesting..... flippant? i got to think about that.

[LDF]

I think Quintana is overrated, I dont see a number 2, I see a 3/4 starter. What do you do when the market overvalues your assets more than you do? You work the market to your advantage and you make a move.

 

i really hate to say, but i too think he is overrated. but if i am wrong, so be it. as i said before,

beside Aelxia who else can we use as trade bait.

[LDF]

Even if that is the case, you replaced this #3 starter that is paid like a #4 starter with a handful of #5 starters that we will need to pay like #3 starters. What have you seen from Brandon McCarthy this year that says "I'd be comfy with him as a #2".

 

the sox does not have depth that can be use.

 

the only way is fa and then trade a good value player to get a good rtn, something we really need.

Edited September 3, 2014 by LDF

[LDF]

Am I reading the last few pages correctly? Trade Q because he's overrated and merely a #3/4, keep Danks and his almost 5 ERA who's at best a #5, sign Anderson and McCarthy which both have injury histories only to kick Noesi to the curb despite making quite an improvement in a short amount of time? I'll ask again, am I reading this right?

 

well danks being trade would be a fantasy dream. who can we trade him too?

[LDF]

People seem to think that Quintana will immediately flop tomorrow. I feel like this has to do with how we acquired him.

 

no one has said that, we are talking about tradeable assests.

[fathom]

Maybe. He has been with us so far but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets smashed next year if he's in the rotation all year long.

 

He's got to find a way to limit the long ball

[Kyyle23]

Brandon McCarthy is a positive addition to any rotation, and yes while he has never made 30 starts in a season, I would not let that detract me from signing him.

 

John Danks dose not suck, he is still recovering from his injury and next year I expect a more consistent year from him, 3 years removed from his injury.

 

Noesi can be your 4 or 5 starter going into next year however, I still see the team signing a 'flip candidate', but in this scenario they sign Andseron who also be a 4 or 5, but since I think you should avoid starting two lefties back to back in the rotation I made him the 5, and Noesi the 4. Amder is injury prone but IF he stays healthy, he could have a good year pitching at US Cellular as a ground ball pitcher.

 

Good lord, Quintana is an overrated pitcher but you think John Danks is due to become better? And McCarthy won't get injured? Wow

[caulfield12]

I think you are vastly underrating Jose Quintana. I think it was beautox who made a comparison to Andy Pettitte, and frankly, that's not a bad comparison. And Andy Pettitte pitched very well for a very long time. You don't trade a guy who puts up numbers like that because you feel he's overrated. The stats say he is valued properly as a #2 starter statistically and he's being paid insanely well.

 

Frankly, if you trade Quintana for prospects, I feel like you may as well trade Sale and Abreu too. Quintana is probably the 3rd most important player (and, frankly, 3rd best player too) on the White Sox.

 

 

Or a healthy Eaton...you could argue for a CFer putting up his numbers, especially if the successful SB's came up even more.

 

It's an interesting argument.

 

Of course, another way of looking at it is whether you would trade Quintana for Eaton OR Avisail Garcia if they were playing on other teams?

 

What about Soler or Bryant?

[fathom]

Or a healthy Eaton...you could argue for a CFer putting up his numbers, especially if the successful SB's came up even more.

 

It's an interesting argument.

 

Of course, another way of looking at it is whether you would trade Quintana for Eaton OR Avisail Garcia if they were playing on other teams?

 

What about Soler or Bryant?

 

Hello no. Yes to Bryant, possibly Soler

[Jerksticks]

If Quintana is traded it should be for a guy like Stanton. Quintana can fetch a haul with his age, contract and results.

[caulfield12]

Hello no. Yes to Bryant, possibly Soler

 

 

What about Gallo? Byron Buxton (that's a bit of a loaded question since he and Sano have to prove themselves healthy in the AFL or at least before the end of spring training next year)?

 

 

Soler and Russell would have to be a yes, since you could trade Ramirez then so it would be essentially Soler, Russell and whoever we got back for Alexei, not to mention the cost savings that could be invested elsewhere. (Baez now looks like Gordon Beckham OPS-wise and Soler's at 1.771 for the moment).

 

That type of move to me is a lot more logical than Mike Stanton.

Edited September 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[LDF]

 

I guess a lot of posters can use players to make their point, as I am going to do.

 

what would you give to get a Joey Gallo from tex, plus another player or Gary

Sanchez from nyy and 1 of their outfield prospects?

 

that is what I am taking about trading for. if it is not Q then who?

[caulfield12]

I guess a lot of posters can use players to make their point, as I am going to do.

 

what would you give to get a Joey Gallo from tex, plus another player or Gary

Sanchez from nyy and 1 of their outfield prospects?

 

that is what I am taking about trading for. if it is not Q then who?

 

 

That's the problem. After Quintana in value, you have Eaton and Avisail Garcia, arguably.

 

RF and LF, along with C and 2B are the positions most in need of improvement statistically...and of course DH.

 

We have a solution for 2B internally, 3B and probably Flowers sticks at catcher even though there are some possible improvements but a hard time matching up for a trade unless you deal Alexei.

 

After Garcia/Eaton/Alexei, the players with the most value are Tim Anderson, Tyler Danish and Frank Montas in the minors, along with Rodon and Adams obviously. Courtney Hawkins would probably be #4, arguably.

 

Davidson and Erik Johnson you have no choice but to hold onto and hope and pray for rebound seasons.

Edited September 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

Joshua is getting thrashed here, maybe for good reason, but I do agree with him on something. Danks is doing exactly what you'd figure, which is what Peavy did after his injury year too. The real test to see if he's back is 2015, and I'd be even money he's significantly better next year.

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

The notion that Q is not a 2 is valid to some extent. His stuff is average and he doesn't have a true swing and miss pitch. His swinging strike rate is at 7.8%, which ranks 66 out of 95 qualified pitchers this year. With his stuff, hitters foul off a lot of his pitches and runs his pitch count up, and as a result he starts to reach his pitch limit around the 5th or 6th inning, that's why we often see him implode during that span. He should not be your second starter in a playoff series, especially with the added pressure.

 

But given that, I still don't think we should trade him. He's got one of the best contracts in the league, and if we can put a legit #2 starter between him and Sale, that would be one of the best 1-2-3's in the league. I can live with him being a #3 with that contract. And we may already have that #2 starter in the system, and he can deliver as early as late 2015.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Joshua is getting thrashed here, maybe for good reason, but I do agree with him on something. Danks is doing exactly what you'd figure, which is what Peavy did after his injury year too. The real test to see if he's back is 2015, and I'd be even money he's significantly better next year.

 

Marginally? Yes, just because he's awful overall this year. Significantly? Highly doubt it. Peavy was injured in 2010 and was already back in shape by 2012. Danks was injured in 2012 and we thought he would regain his form by 2014, he did briefly in the beginning of the year, but actually fell apart down the stretch. There has to be a point when you realize a pitcher can long pitch like he used to, for Danks, we are at that point.

[BlackSox13]

well danks being trade would be a fantasy dream. who can we trade him too?

I'm not saying to trade Danks as I realize there's no market for him ( at this point) but theres no way I would trade Q because hes " over rated" so the Sox can sign less durable starters like Anderson and McCarthy which was the idea I was responding to in the first place. Just clarifying is all.

[LDF]

The notion that Q is not a 2 is valid to some extent. His stuff is average and he doesn't have a true swing and miss pitch. His swinging strike rate is at 7.8%, which ranks 66 out of 95 qualified pitchers this year. With his stuff, hitters foul off a lot of his pitches and runs his pitch count up, and as a result he starts to reach his pitch limit around the 5th or 6th inning, that's why we often see him implode during that span. He should not be your second starter in a playoff series, especially with the added pressure.

 

But given that, I still don't think we should trade him. He's got one of the best contracts in the league, and if we can put a legit #2 starter between him and Sale, that would be one of the best 1-2-3's in the league. I can live with him being a #3 with that contract. And we may already have that #2 starter in the system, and he can deliver as early as late 2015.

'

1,2,3 is good for the season. I am looking at 1,2,3 for the playoff. that is when it counts to me.

 

as I said, the sox org need certain positional prospects. the sox have a key group of great players, I

rather not see wasted.

[LDF]

I'm not saying to trade Danks as I realize there's no market for him ( at this point) but theres no way I would trade Q because hes " over rated" so the Sox can sign less durable starters like Anderson and McCarthy which was the idea I was responding to in the first place. Just clarifying is all.

 

that's kool.