When I really look at it, the Sox would have to buck 2 major trends:

 

1. Raising their payroll up to an all-time high.

 

2. Giving a franchise record-breaking contract to a player (much less a guy probably over 30).

 

 

They could backload a deal and even defer $$ though. They've done it before.

Everyone has their own theory but mine all along has been the same. The longer they wait, the lower the price. Which is fine but more teams will jump into the race & IMHO, I don't think the Sox are that attractive of a team to be competing for a top FA.

 

Overall, I don't think it's a good thing. I'll gladly be proven wrong but I've already moved on from Upton as a whole & have little hope for Cespedes. Best case at this point may be either a trade or Fowler.

I don't see the AAV dropping that much, moreso the years. Obviously a lot of teams would jump in if the price fell to 1 or 2 years, but I don't see a lot of teams jumping in at 4 years, which seems like the limit of how high the Sox will go.

I don't see the AAV dropping that much, moreso the years. Obviously a lot of teams would jump in if the price fell to 1 or 2 years, but I don't see a lot of teams jumping in at 4 years, which seems like the limit of how high the Sox will go.

 

I think Upton could end up going on a 1-2 year deal. Cespedes will probably still find a way to land 4-5 years. I think the Sox would settle on 4 but at that point, I think a few other teams would, too. 6 is just not worth it with him.

Everyone has their own theory but mine all along has been the same. The longer they wait, the lower the price. Which is fine but more teams will jump into the race & IMHO, I don't think the Sox are that attractive of a team to be competing for a top FA.

 

Overall, I don't think it's a good thing. I'll gladly be proven wrong but I've already moved on from Upton as a whole & have little hope for Cespedes. Best case at this point may be either a trade or Fowler.

Then you aren't making sense. On one hand you say there is a payroll issue so it won't happen. You have said the longer it takes the less likely it will happen. Then you say the longer it takes the lower the price.

 

So why did you ever entertain it happening?

 

They are playing this correctly. There will be more teams mentioned, but that is more smoke than anything. Like Chris Davis and the Rangers. Yeah, they will spend $150 million on another LH bat. It's all fun to mention but the reality is for most of the new teams mentioned, it is entirely BS. Cespedes isn't going to Atlanta. He isn't going back to the Mets.

Granted, all it takes is one team to step up, but that has been the case all along. Maybe it's a longshot Cespedes wears a White Sox uniform, but IMO, the longer this goes on the better the chance. His price isn't going up.

I think Upton could end up going on a 1-2 year deal. Cespedes will probably still find a way to land 4-5 years. I think the Sox would settle on 4 but at that point, I think a few other teams would, too. 6 is just not worth it with him.

If the price drops to 4 years with Cespedes, my bigger concern is the Tigers/Angels/Cardinals being willing to pony up the dough at that point, rather than worrying about the Mets/Red Sox/Braves suddenly jumping in.

Then you aren't making sense. On one hand you say there is a payroll issue so it won't happen. You have said the longer it takes the less likely it will happen. Then you say the longer it takes the lower the price.

 

I don't see how my statement doesn't make sense to you.

 

I THINK payroll could be an issue, just my thought.

 

I also said the longer it takes the less likely it is to happen BECAUSE the price will go down & more suitors will jump in. The reason I think their chances are lower as time passes & prices drop because I don't think they are as attractive as other potential FA suitors.

 

I would say that all plays pretty much hand in hand with each other.

Edited January 13, 201610 yr by SoCalSox

If the price drops to 4 years with Cespedes, my bigger concern is the Tigers/Angels/Cardinals being willing to pony up the dough at that point, rather than worrying about the Mets/Red Sox/Braves suddenly jumping in.

 

My concern is that as demands drop, more teams will jump in, even teams who have said they are done. My other concern is that if they miss out there, the secondary market is shrinking as well, which leaves them with little options as time goes on.

I don't see how my statement doesn't make sense to you.

 

I THINK payroll could be an issue, just my thought.

 

I also said the longer it takes the less likely it is to happen BECAUSE the price will go down & more suitors will jump in. The reason I think their chances are lower as time passes & prices drop because I don't think they are as attractive as other potential FA suitors.

 

I would say that all plays pretty much hand in hand with each other.

It doesn't make sense because you say money is an issue, yet if the price goes down it's less likely to happen. What I don't understand is where are you and everyone else getting all these additional suitors if the price goes down?

 

Considering he hasn't signed yet, then why would any team be considered a suitor at this point? No matter what, there just aren't a lot of teams that will commit $20 million a year even for 3 years to an OF at this point. Most of the "new" teams would need something a lot lower than that. The one problem I do see is you have to make sure you get something done at some point, and not be left holding the bag. If they want to take this to February, it will make some team or teams go on to the next idea.

 

Whether or not the Sox have even made Cespedes an offer at this point is also unknown. Yet the reports say they were interested. They knew the price tag. It wasn't going to $7 million a year.

Edited January 13, 201610 yr by Dick Allen

It doesn't make sense because you say money is an issue, yet if the price goes down it's less likely to happen. What I don't understand is where are you and everyone else getting all these additional suitors if the price goes down?

 

Considering he hasn't signed yet, then why would any team be considered a suitor at this point? No matter what, there just aren't a lot of teams that will commit $20 million a year even for 3 years to an OF at this point. Most of the "new" teams would need something a lot lower than that. The one problem I do see is you have to make sure you get something done at some point, and not be left holding the bag. If they want to take this to February, it will make some team or teams go on to the next idea.

 

I think the disconnect between us seems to be that I think more suitors will come as the price goes down.

 

As far as the money issue, that was more of a separate thought & just a suspicion of mine, although talking with raBBit, he brought up a few good points that throw that thought away.

 

I still think that as the price drops, more suitors will jump in because the demands are that much lower & easier for other teams to meet.

I think the disconnect between us seems to be that I think more suitors will come as the price goes down.

 

As far as the money issue, that was more of a separate thought & just a suspicion of mine, although talking with raBBit, he brought up a few good points that throw that thought away.

 

I still think that as the price drops, more suitors will jump in because the demands are that much lower & easier for other teams to meet.

I think most of the teams that would spend that kind of money either don't have room or are spending their cash on other needs. The price will go down, but not all that drastically. He's still going to probably get at least $20 million a year for 3 years. How many teams are looking for corner OF help who could add that right now without being up against a roster crunch or luxury tax complications?

 

 

I'd offer him 3 with an opt out after 2. I think that could be better for him if he performs than a 4 year deal. And better for the Sox. They get a totally motivated player. One whose performance increased tremendously when he was playing for a contract, and in 2 years, they will have some guys potentially off the books if they wish to re-sign him, or let someone else pay him for his decline.

Edited January 13, 201610 yr by Dick Allen

Hey if Atlanta wants Cespedes we can take Ender Inciarte

I think most of the teams that would spend that kind of money either don't have room or are spending their cash on other needs. The price will go down, but not all that drastically. He's still going to probably get at least $20 million a year for 3 years. How many teams are looking for corner OF help who could add that right now without being up against a roster crunch or luxury tax complications?

 

 

I'd offer him 3 with an opt out after 2. I think that could be better for him if he performs than a 4 year deal. And better for the Sox. They get a totally motivated player. One whose performance increased tremendously when he was playing for a contract, and in 2 years, they will have some guys potentially off the books if they wish to re-sign him, or let someone else pay him for his decline.

 

I completely agree, as you can well imagine. Thank you.

Edited January 13, 201610 yr by Lillian

Hey if Atlanta wants Cespedes we can take Ender Inciarte

 

Who are you willing to trade?

 

They still want Markakis, Bourn and Swisher off the books.

 

They would play Inciarte, Olivera and Cespedes together.

Who are you willing to trade?

 

They still want Markakis, Bourn and Swisher off the books.

 

They would play Inciarte, Olivera and Cespedes together.

 

 

Almost anyone to be honest except for Sale.

Almost anyone to be honest except for Sale.

You would trade Rodon or Quintana for Inciarte?

Trades won't work unless we're dealing non-premium talent and taking on larger, mostly veteran contracts.

 

Unless you really want a Blackmon and think he's worth Adams+.

 

We can't just give up Avi, LaRoche and Sanchez and still expect to get anywhere.

Sources: For #Mets to engage on Cespedes, they would need to hear from his agents that he is willing to entertain short-term deal…

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/687416576446967809

 

Agents have not given #Mets any indication that Cespedes would accept deal of 1, 2 or 3 years. Cespedes remains committed to longer term.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/687416581509525508

Weird than Rosenthal didn't include a 4th year in that tweet. Makes me wonder if he's already lowering down into a 4/5 year expectation.

Weird than Rosenthal didn't include a 4th year in that tweet. Makes me wonder if he's already lowering down into a 4/5 year expectation.

 

I think mets only want to go maybe max of 3 years which seems same place for sox. I think he was wanting like 6 years so a good difference in years.

I feel like the most he'll get is 4 guaranteed with a 5th year mutual option.

You would trade Rodon or Quintana for Inciarte?

 

 

Rodon no...Q very possible.

Who are you willing to trade?

 

They still want Markakis, Bourn and Swisher off the books.

 

They would play Inciarte, Olivera and Cespedes together.

I'd be more than happy to take both Markakis and Inciarte off Atlanta's hands so they had room for Cespedes. Avi would have to be a part of the package going to Atlanta. Adams is a Georgia boy, how far off would Adams/Avi for Markakis/Inciarte be? Eh, probably not enough from the Sox.

Rodon no...Q very possible.

We've traded away enough assets this winter. It's time to hit the FA market.

We've traded away enough assets this winter. It's time to hit the FA market.

 

It's not going to happen. But you have to give up talent to get talent. He wont be cheap. Even taking back a garbage contract probably wont bring his price down enough.

http://www.purplerow.com/2016/1/13/1076375...l-not-be-traded