Dave Cameron - Grading the Offseason

[southsider2k5]

That's like leaving $20 on the ground because you already found $20 earlier. The fact that's it's difficult to make multiple huge improvements doesn't mean the Sox should feel content letting opportunities pass by -- the RF market presented the easiest path to improvement for this team BY FAR. It was the softest free agent market for position players in probably ten years, there were twice as many high-end corner OF options available than at any other position, and there were remarkably few teams interested in buying. Price were lower than literally anyone predicted. They were so low that teams that didn't even have openings in the OF were acquiring talent simply because the value was impossible to pass up.

 

The Frazier trade was awesome! Great job! Why skip the easy follow-up? Why not complete the picture?

 

 

 

Again, if the glut of OF talent were all pulling in $150m contracts or costing multiple top prospects to acquire, I'd have no issue with the lack of movement. I believe wholeheartedly that Hahn has wisely avoided overpaying for stuff he wants -- but that's NOT what happened here. Upgrading in RF would not be "making a stupid move because of fan pressure," it would be upgrading on a career sub-replacement black hole when the universe flopped a boon of all the necessary talent right in front of you at discount prices.

 

I get what you're saying -- all the moves Hahn DID make were great. I liked them all individually. But ultimate success in the MLB is a binary thing. Please excuse the following mess of mixed sports metaphors, but ignoring the lay-up of making a massive, relatively cheap upgrade in RF feels like running the ball to the 2-yard line and taking a knee.

 

I am curious where we are finding OFs on the street that we don't have to pay for.

 

[Feeky Magee]

When you're a .500 team in a division full of .500 teams, upgrading a -1.0 WAR to something like 2.0 WAR is exactly the type of move that takes a team to the next level.

Yeah, which is why I'm surprised you were advocating Upton/Gordon/Cespedes earlier in the thread. By far the most obvious move imo, is Austin Jackson.

[kevo880]

When you're a .500 team in a division full of .500 teams, upgrading a -1.0 WAR to something like 2.0 WAR is exactly the type of move that takes a team to the next level.

 

Hahn is going to find an OFer to take at bats away from Avi. I don't think it will be a -1 WAR position in 2016. If the Sox don't upgrade the position before the season starts then I fully expect them to at the trade deadline if we are in contention for a playoff spot. Everyone is just mad bc it hasn't happened yet.

[kevo880]

Yeah, which is why I'm surprised you were advocating Upton/Gordon/Cespedes earlier in the thread. By far the most obvious move imo, is Austin Jackson.

 

I'd be happy with them signing Jackson, but I also believe there is a reason they haven't yet. I'd prefer a lefty if possible, and the FO has stated them same.

[SoCalSox]

Hahn is going to find an OFer to take at bats away from Avi. I don't think it will be a -1 WAR position in 2016. If the Sox don't upgrade the position before the season starts then I fully expect them to at the trade deadline if we are in contention for a playoff spot. Everyone is just mad bc it hasn't happened yet.

 

I think people (including myself) are irritated because we fully expect them to have to upgrade at a higher price in a few months when they realize they made a mistake by not doing it this offseason.

[kevo880]

I think people (including myself) are irritated because we fully expect them to have to upgrade at a higher price in a few months when they realize they made a mistake by not doing it this offseason.

 

That could be true with certain platers, but it's not a fact. Also, there will probably be more players available at the deadline due to certain teams not being in contention, certain players exceeding or not meeting expectations, certain players proving they deserve more playing time.

[Eminor3rd]

I am curious where we are finding OFs on the street that we don't have to pay for.

 

Don't take the analogy TOO far. It wasn't my best work, lol.

 

Yeah, which is why I'm surprised you were advocating Upton/Gordon/Cespedes earlier in the thread. By far the most obvious move imo, is Austin Jackson.

 

Because a 4-win OF is that much better than a 2-win OF. I support the move to 2-wins because it's the best course remaining; but the going rate for 4-win guys was nice, especially since we signed literally zero mid-high dollar free agents this year, so it's hard to believe that money for one of those guys went somewhere else.

 

 

Hahn is going to find an OFer to take at bats away from Avi. I don't think it will be a -1 WAR position in 2016. If the Sox don't upgrade the position before the season starts then I fully expect them to at the trade deadline if we are in contention for a playoff spot. Everyone is just mad bc it hasn't happened yet.

 

I don't understand that line of thinking -- everyone agrees that this will be a hard fought division, and that if we win it, it's most likely going to come down to a few games. Playing a sub-replacement player for the first 4 months of the season could absolutely be the difference in a playoff spot. Further, if you don't HAVE to replace the RF at that point, you can instead work on shoring up a new problem that arose during the season.

[kevo880]

I don't understand that line of thinking -- everyone agrees that this will be a hard fought division, and that if we win it, it's most likely going to come down to a few games. Playing a sub-replacement player for the first 4 months of the season could absolutely be the difference in a playoff spot. Further, if you don't HAVE to replace the RF at that point, you can instead work on shoring up a new problem that arose during the season.

 

I love how you read what you want to read and ignore other things that are stated. I think there is a very good chance an OFer is acquired before the season starts, like I stated...However, if things don't play out that way then they will be on the lookout for someone.

 

There are also people out there, obviously not you, who have hopes that Avi can still become more than he is. I understand not wanting a gaping hole in RF, but I don't think Avi will be given a long leash if they don't replace him before the season starts.

[southsider2k5]

Don't take the analogy TOO far. It wasn't my best work, lol.

 

To me it is the most important point. Sure there were OFs, but if you can't afford to sign them, it doesn't matter.

[caulfield12]

Everyone would have us as the favorite with Upton in the outfield.

 

That said, we were the big winners last year at this point, too. More than likely, the 2014-15 offseason and the repercussions of carrying Danks, Cabrera and LaRoche has forced the front office into a more "year by year," risk-averse position.

 

Upton was the one clear "huge" improvement that in hindsight was realistic, but if he wasn't interested, it probably would have been an unmitigated disaster to still try to bring him onboard.

 

Nevertheless, we still have Jackson to argue about, and probably Fowler/Desmond (one of them, at least) in June too...

Edited February 22, 2016 by caulfield12

[GreenSox]

Everyone would have us as the favorite with Upton in the outfield.

 

That said, we were the big winners last year at this point, too. More than likely, the 2014-15 offseason and the repercussions of carrying Danks, Cabrera and LaRoche has forced the front office into a more "year by year," risk-averse position.

I guess, but Danks and Laroche are off the books after this year, and Melky after next year. In the realm of leverage risks, that's pretty darn light.

 

[caulfield12]

Yes, Greensox, in the overall scheme of things, that's true.

 

It's just that we've heard over and over again about them attempting to dump LaRoche to create some "free" money, "three year max contracts," etc.

 

It's also been mentioned repeatedly how those two deals are off the books at the end of the year, so the only REAL issue in terms of immediate payroll concerns is getting through 2016 without losing too much money. (Obviously, for all we know, they could put out a $135 million payroll and still not take a loss...so we're just best guessing it right now.)

[Thad Bosley]

When assessing this particular offseason for the White Sox, you have to consider where they started from. Last year's team was a disaster: dead last in offense and near last on defense. And so to be "all in" or wanting to seriously compete for this season, "many" upgrades needed to be made. Yes, of course, the Todd Frazier addition was an outstanding one. High applause to the FO on that deal! Acquiring Brett Lawrie wasn't quite on the same level but it appears to have been a deal worth making, and does represent a net upgrade at second base. The catching situation, well, it's no longer Tyler Flowers. Enough said on that!

 

The problem is our team was so bad last year that to become competitive this year, which management claims was its goal, still more needed to be done, particularly in the outfield and at DH. That's why I am 100% with the always-terrific poster Eminor when he laments the team's inability to convert on one of the premier outfielder free agents this offseason. If this team under this current owner and management team couldn't obtain a premium free agent talent under the conditions which were present this winter, when will it ever? So very disappointing. Because this was the golden opportunity to put the finishing touches on an offseason to take the team where it started from at the end of last season to a level as legitimate contender for this season. That has not happened. Instead, the conversation has been redirected to talking about the merits of the dumpster diving efforts to acquire Latos and Rollins.

 

As many others have mentioned, the plan and execution this offseason appears to have been half-arsed, at least to this point. This point, I remind you, is at the beginning of Spring Training. However, I will hitch my wagon onto the optimism of some of the other rosier posters and hope Mr. Hahn is able to pull off a deal (or two) this spring to elevate the team up the notch or two it needs to compete for a chance for postseason play this season. But as of now, as we enter "Year 2" of the "3 Year Plan", it's looking a little iffy.

Edited February 23, 2016 by Thad Bosley

[iamshack]

To me it is the most important point. Sure there were OFs, but if you can't afford to sign them, it doesn't matter.

I don't know that anyone knows what they could or could not afford at this point. And I don't know what behavior of theirs we could possibly judge to determine what they could or could not afford. I'm not even sure they know what they could or could not afford.

[LDF]

When assessing this particular offseason for the White Sox, you have to consider where they started from. Last year's team was a disaster: dead last in offense and near last on defense. And so to be "all in" or wanting to seriously compete for this season, "many" upgrades needed to be made. Yes, of course, the Todd Frazier addition was an outstanding one. High applause to the FO on that deal! Acquiring Brett Lawrie wasn't quite on the same level but it appears to have been a deal worth making, and does represent a net upgrade at second base. The catching situation, well, it's no longer Tyler Flowers. Enough said on that!

 

The problem is our team was so bad last year that to become competitive this year, which management claims was its goal, still more needed to be done, particularly in the outfield and at DH. That's why I am 100% with the always-terrific poster Eminor when he laments the team's inability to convert on one of the premier outfielder free agents this offseason. If this team under this current owner and management team couldn't obtain a premium free agent talent under the conditions which were present this winter, when will it ever? So very disappointing. Because this was the golden opportunity to put the finishing touches on an offseason to take the team where it started from at the end of last season to a level as legitimate contender for this season. That has not happened. Instead, the conversation has been redirected to talking about the merits of the dumpster diving efforts to acquire Latos and Rollins.

 

As many others have mentioned, the plan and execution this offseason appears to have been half-arsed, at least to this point. This point, I remind you, is at the beginning of Spring Training. However, I will hitch my wagon onto the optimism of some of the other rosier posters and hope Mr. Hahn is able to pull off a deal (or two) this spring to elevate the team up the notch or two it needs to compete for a chance for postseason play this season. But as of now, as we enter "Year 2" of the "3 Year Plan", it's looking a little iffy.

 

nice post, nah a great post.

 

for me, and i will continue with my same old tired song, it is the money. they, the sox have 15 mil invested in Danks and 13 mil invested in LaRoche. the owners will not go over a certain amount, no matter what the needs of the team are. all this fluff last yr of the owners want another championship. maybe in a garage sale kind of players, how much better will the sox have been with a elite OF'er or even a 2nd or 3rd tier OF'er....

 

i will still have faith on Latos signing.... i wanted latos from when the season ended. i will not jump ship ....

[Jerksticks]

How do you know more needed to be done? I mean every person on this forum wishes one of AG, JU or YC chose the Sox. Nobody is disagreeing. But I can still easily see this team winning the division. Give Avi a half season, and then fire some farm bullets for a premium OF. I don't think some people realize just how loaded our farm is about to look

[LDF]

How do you know more needed to be done? I mean every person on this forum wishes one of AG, JU or YC chose the Sox. Nobody is disagreeing. But I can still easily see this team winning the division. Give Avi a half season, and then fire some farm bullets for a premium OF. I don't think some people realize just how loaded our farm is about to look

 

so you will gamble on Avi in the OF instead of a elite OF'er???? winning AL Central is going to be a tough race. it would have been better to use what is great at this time as resources..... $$$ as in signing a FA. not waiting for a 1/2 season and then using precious prospect to address a problem that should have been fixed in the off season.

 

btw those names you mention didn't chose the sox, was mainly b/c of the sox not offering the money that was needed to sign them.

[Thad Bosley]

To me it is the most important point. Sure there were OFs, but if you can't afford to sign them, it doesn't matter.

Uninformed speculation - art or science?

[fathom]

Uninformed speculation - art or science?

 

Just basing it on the end result. Not one confirmed contract to any outfielder. You have the best source on Sox baseball saying they can't spend. In the end, their lack of finances have really hurt their roster construction it would seem.

[LDF]

Just basing it on the end result. Not one confirmed contract to any outfielder. You have the best source on Sox baseball saying they can't spend. In the end, their lack of finances have really hurt their roster construction it would seem.

 

lack of finances then they should go in the red area.... i am talking about the profits the owners will take home.

[Boopa1219]

I think the Sox had a good off-season. They were able to bolster the weakspots on the roster with the addition of Lawrie and Frazier. They were able to the bolster their biggest strength (The rotation) with the addition of Mat Latos and Jacob Turner to a lesser degree. And they were able to both without having to mortgage their long term future or give up and valuable young assets. Yash Thompson, Montas and Johnson are nice players but they're nothing more than a fourth outfielder, a bullpen arm and a utility player/pinch runner. Also they were able to improve their team while managing to hang on to their supplemental pick.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I don't know that anyone knows what they could or could not afford at this point. And I don't know what behavior of theirs we could possibly judge to determine what they could or could not afford. I'm not even sure they know what they could or could not afford.

 

I think it is completely obvious that resources are a problem. There is literally no other reason to stop where they are.

[Eminor3rd]

I love how you read what you want to read and ignore other things that are stated. I think there is a very good chance an OFer is acquired before the season starts, like I stated...However, if things don't play out that way then they will be on the lookout for someone.

 

There are also people out there, obviously not you, who have hopes that Avi can still become more than he is. I understand not wanting a gaping hole in RF, but I don't think Avi will be given a long leash if they don't replace him before the season starts.

 

I missed the part where you highlighted something I ignored. If you're referring to the part where you said you think they'll still upgrade before OD, then I'll point out that you ignored the latter half of my original post, where I addressed just that.

 

If Avi sucks like he always has, the team will be actively harmed until better options become available via trade, at which point they will be forced to give up a substantial amount of talent to acquire someone to improve the team for AT MOST half the season. Guys don't become available earlier than that. Since there are only about 4-6 true "sellers" at the deadline these days, prices will be high, as opposed to historically low like they are right now.

 

If you believe in Avi, then by all means make an argument for Avi. But it doesn't make strategic sense to sit out a soft market on a weakness, only to instead improve on the weakness later when the cost is higher and you've already suffered the weakness for half or more of the season.

 

To me it is the most important point. Sure there were OFs, but if you can't afford to sign them, it doesn't matter.

 

There's no incentive to pretend you're in the race for big free agents all winter only to disappoint everyone by letting them sign with your division rivals for less than anyone expected. The bottom line is that there were several major upgrades that were affordable. Either Hahn massively overplayed his hand, or the White Sox are a PR disaster and caulfield is actually right that they'll never spend any money. I want to believe that they WILL spend when it makes sense to do so, and I can't remember a situation where it made more sense than to do so here.

 

[SCCWS]

I think the Sox had a good off-season. They were able to bolster the weakspots on the roster with the addition of Lawrie and Frazier. They were able to the bolster their biggest strength (The rotation) with the addition of Mat Latos and Jacob Turner to a lesser degree. And they were able to both without having to mortgage their long term future or give up and valuable young assets. Yash Thompson, Montas and Johnson are nice players but they're nothing more than a fourth outfielder, a bullpen arm and a utility player/pinch runner. Also they were able to improve their team while managing to hang on to their supplemental pick.

 

There is no question the offense was improved w Lawrie and Frazier. But the effect on the defense w them and Saladino versus Alexei remains to be seen. At this point the outfield defense has not improved. So offensively, the offense needed improvement and that should happen. But if the overall defense is worse, the improvement may not be significant.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

There is no question the offense was improved w Lawrie and Frazier. But the effect on the defense w them and Saladino versus Alexei remains to be seen. At this point the outfield defense has not improved. So offensively, the offense needed improvement and that should happen. But if the overall defense is worse, the improvement may not be significant.

 

 

Frazier and Lawrie aren't bad defenders though. Not as good as Sanchez and Saladino but I'll take the slightly worse defense for way better offense. The bad defense isn't why the White Sox were horrible last year. It was having an all time bad offense.