2018 MLB Draft

[Eminor3rd]

Eminor3rd

1:57

Given that picks 2-6 or so look like they'll have players of the same "tier," is it valid, at all, to say that it makes sense to go with a college position player in order to reduce risk?

 

Keith Law

1:58

I'm a little lost on this one. I think those picks will all be college position players. However, I think there are a couple of HS players who might make sense up there - Carter Stewart in particular - but who, for various reasons, aren't likely to go that high.

[DirtySox]

Paul
2:02    Wasn't there a new mock promised at some point soon?!
Eric A Longenhagen
2:03    Early next week after I've seen who's at the games I'm seeing this weekend and we make some more cals.

 

Dave
2:03    Any chance the Braves go with Kelenic at 8?
Kiley McDaniel
2:03    Definitely in the mix, we're hearing lots of high school names there and he's arguably the top prep bat

 

Mark
2:04    Hi guys, thanks for the chat. Was curious about the Padres draft pick. Do you think they go high upside high school pitcher? I know you're not suppose to draft for need but one of those college third baseman would be nice. Thanks!
Kiley McDaniel
2:04    We're hearing their top pick is down to three high school pitchers and they're tied to essentially every high school outfielder in the country for overpays at later picks if they cut at the first pick

 

sterling_archer
2:07    Orioles fan.  Looking forward to 2019 draft.  Any surefire 1-1 guys worth tanking for?
Kiley McDaniel
2:08    Still to early to know for sure, but doesn't look like it. Prep side it's Bobby Witt Jr, Hunter Barco, Rece Hinds and C.J. Abrams at the top

 

Will
2:12    Any names getting top 10 buzz via underslot?
Kiley McDaniel
2:13    Ryan Weathers at 7 to the Padres is the loudest one, the other ones we've heard are more backup plans that seem unlikely.

 

Robby
2:14    Any possible chance that Turang makes it to campus?
Kiley McDaniel
2:14    Don't think so, sounds like he'll find a home in the 15-22 area. Maybe 10% chance?

 

Sparhawk
2:16    Why isn't Connor Scott considered a top 10 prospect heading into the draft?
Kiley McDaniel
2:17    He's been banged up a lot this year (concussion, hamstring, I believe one other thing) and didn't play the full slate last summer, so lots of high level guys just haven't seen him enough to be comfortable. He's akin to Austin Beck in that way with big tools and limited track record. I prefer him to Beck since I think there's a better chance to hit

 

Hecubot
2:18    Does Jonathan India have enough helium to crack the Top Ten?

Kiley McDaniel
2:18    India could go 9 or 10 and is an underslot name at 6 to the Mets, but he's seen as more of a 12-18 sort of talent from the people we've talked to and that's also closer to where we rank him

 

Mike
2:19    Is Mize the consensus #1 because he's one of those "every few years" talents that would go #1 in most drafts? Or is it because the talent after him just isn't up to par compared to past drafts?
Kiley McDaniel
2:19    I'll go into more detail when I write him up, but I think I'm lower on him than most, still think he's the top talent

 

Dave
2:20    Kiley, after seeing Swaggerty in person, how do you see his draft stock?  His batting average is now below .300 in a small conference.  Is he in danger of falling past the A's pick at #9?
Kiley McDaniel
2:21    Don't think he gets to the A's, but I have had two bad looks this spring after a good look over the summer. It's 60 raw, 65 speed and a 60 arm and he hit last summer, there's a new power focused swing this spring, so it's more an issues of dialing it in approach wise than can he hit. Those kinds of tools in college dont slide far

 

Dave
2:25    Kiley, Nick Schnell has been on a HR tear as of late.  How high can his draft stock go?
Kiley McDaniel
2:26    Been talking to many guys about him this week as he's got some helium. Seems like his market is 25-40, but some teams don't buy the bat and think he's more 50-65 for them. Chance to play CF, plus power, but bars out (loads really deep) and is late even on just okay HS pitching, so oppo homers in HS are seen not as all field approach but as revealing a weakness to some scouts. Big upside tho

 

Satya
2:28    How does Casey Mize today compare to Kyle Wright a year ago?
Kiley McDaniel
2:29    Mize has a hair more stuff but the frame, delivery, style of pitching and all that isn't as good. I prefer Wright, but that's more of a 50/50 split in the scouting community, I would guess

 

Dave
2:29    Is it fair to say that the two highest-rated tools among positions players in this draft are Nolan Gorman's power and Jordyn Adams' speed?
Kiley McDaniel
2:29    Gorman has 70 raw, Adams has 80 speed. Xavier Edwards 80 speed would be #2 and Triston Casas' power (70 or 80) would probably be 3rd
Eric A Longenhagen
2:29    Larnach's power is u p with Gorman

 

Slick Rick Hahn
2:30    I really want Alek Thomas in my organization since I already have my dad, who could I go underslot with at 4 in order to push him to the 2nd round? Think it’s possible?
Kiley McDaniel
2:30    He's not in play until about 25, so much more likely to be a 2nd round pick anyway and the TCU commitment is enough that he could slide to an overpay team

 

 

[DirtySox]

Jason
2:38    Have you heard any talk about Singer to the Reds at No. 5?  If so, do you see similarities to the Mike Leake pick (No. 😎 in terms of a short developmental period?  Even if he's a 3/4, they need innings sooner than later. Thanks again for doing these chats.
Kiley McDaniel
2:38    TONS of buzz on that one. I think that's who they take. Dick Williams and the scouting director were at Mize/Singer

 

Shockers Fan
2:41    Hey guys - big fan of what you guys do. Hearing any rumblings on what teams have been linked to Greyson Jenista? And what round? Thank you!
Kiley McDaniel
2:41    Hearing he's in the 20's, maybe early 30's
2:42    Maybe 18-19. So like 18-32? He's a tough one to peg

 

Justin

2:43

If you're the White Sox and at your pick the top player remaining is Joey Bart how do you approach that, especially given that they seem to have a couple catching options? I know Collins hasn't hit much and might not be able to catch, but generally speaking I'm interested as to how orgs view this problem, especially when most take the best player available.

Kiley McDaniel

2:44

Collins cannot catch, especially everyday and you don't take need into account in the top 5, just take the best player. The results show that the value of each player falls of a lot at each pick at the top so why willingly move down that curve when you can trade anyone if you end up with a glut?

[DirtySox]

Nick
2:47    Could the Giants take Madrigal at #2? I think I remember you saying that was unlikely, but I just wanted to see if anything has changed.
Kiley McDaniel
2:47    Not happening

 

The Ghost of Wade Boggs
2:47    So what would you gents say the odds are at this point that Mize goes 1-1?
Kiley McDaniel
2:48    on Mize, probably 90%
wish there were draft props we could bet on

 

George
2:48    Suprised to see the Blue Jays linked to prep players?
Kiley McDaniel
2:48    Nope, I'm hearing that's almost all they've targeted with their first pick

 

ATLLL
2:49    Joey Bart to ATL?
Kiley McDaniel
2:49    He's gonna go in the top 5-6 and I think ATL would take most of the guys that would go in that range. But, no,
Since ATL picks 8th

 

ATLLL
2:49    Joey Bart to ATL?
Kiley McDaniel
2:49    He's gonna go in the top 5-6 and I think ATL would take most of the guys that would go in that range. But, no,
Since ATL picks 8th

 

Kevin
2:56    If you had to guess the White Sox top 3 players: Madrigal Bohm Swaggerty, in that order?  Is Brady Singer in consideration do you think?
Kiley McDaniel
2:56    They're on all 4, but I think Bohm is the lowest of those 4

[fathom]

Get the sense that Kiley thinks Sox take Swaggerty or Madrigal 

[TheTruth05]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Get the sense that Kiley thinks Sox take Swaggerty or Madrigal 

Really hope Madrigal is there because Swaggerty is underwhelming imo.

[Eminor3rd]

1 minute ago, TheTruth05 said:

Really hope Madrigal is there because Swaggerty is underwhelming imo.

I wouldn't say Swaggerty is underwhelming as much as he's risky. The Sox don't seem to have had any luck at all developing guys who lack the hit tool.

[DirtySox]

PTown

3:12

How would you rank Jonathan India, Nick Madrigal, Keston Hiura, and Nick Senzel as prospects coming out?

 

Kiley McDaniel

3:12

Senzel/Madrigal, Hiura, India

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I guess I wouldn't be disappointed with Singer, but I wouldn't be excited either. The fact that he went from slam-dunk #1, to back of 1st RD, now he's creeping back in to the top 5 just worries me a bit that he's inconsistent. Perfect Game did a mock draft at the end of March and they had Singer ranked #20. In the same mock, India was #43. I would prefer the guy who has made a precipitous improvement as the year went on, versus the guy who fell off a cliff and then climbed back up, especially when India should be an easy underslot value, and Singer may require overslot.

[Flash]

1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I guess I wouldn't be disappointed with Singer, but I wouldn't be excited either. The fact that he went from slam-dunk #1, to back of 1st RD, now he's creeping back in to the top 5 just worries me a bit that he's inconsistent. Perfect Game did a mock draft at the end of March and they had Singer ranked #20. In the same mock, India was #43. I would prefer the guy who has made a precipitous improvement as the year went on, versus the guy who fell off a cliff and then climbed back up, especially when India should be an easy underslot value, and Singer may require overslot.

Have you seen Singer's stats?

[NorthSideSox72]

Madrigal profile up on FutureSox. Lots of detail, videos, reports, etc.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

5 minutes ago, Flash said:

Have you seen Singer's stats?

No. College stats are the hardest to decipher because of the wildly different levels of talent they face, both compared to pro ball and just within the college ranks. I'm just going off of mock drafts and opinions on the experts who see these guys play week to week and have info deeper than the boxscores.

His rollercoaster season, in terms of draft position and reports, worries me, despite, I'm sure, stellar numbers overall.

[yesterday333]

6 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Madrigal profile up on FutureSox. Lots of detail, videos, reports, etc.

 

Love the work. He is my current favorite for the sox pick.

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I guess I wouldn't be disappointed with Singer, but I wouldn't be excited either. The fact that he went from slam-dunk #1, to back of 1st RD, now he's creeping back in to the top 5 just worries me a bit that he's inconsistent. Perfect Game did a mock draft at the end of March and they had Singer ranked #20. In the same mock, India was #43. I would prefer the guy who has made a precipitous improvement as the year went on, versus the guy who fell off a cliff and then climbed back up, especially when India should be an easy underslot value, and Singer may require overslot.

There is lots of recent talk that Singer might be a victim of prospect fatigue more than performance related issued.

[Flash]

I grant that Mize' SO/Walk numbers are other-worldly but across almost every other stat, Singer is about on par...and Singer has a better record and beat Mize when they faced off.

Player

School

Class

Height

Position

G

ERA

IP

H

R

ER

BB

SO

FO

GO

HR

WHIP

SO9

BB9

Brady Singer

Florida

Jr.

6'5"

RHP

12

2.33

81

51

24

21

17

86

62

89

6

0.84

9.56

1.89

Casey Mize

Auburn

Jr.

6'3"

RHP

12

2.25

84

50

22

21

7

119

50

83

7

0.68

12.75

0.75

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is lots of recent talk that Singer might be a victim of prospect fatigue more than performance related issued.

Yeah, and I get that, just like Rodon, and if that's the only real issue, than that's great. I guess I need to hear if his velo was down, or if his mechanics were backing up, or if was anything substantial.

Or maybe it was character issues like this?

 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Yeah, and I get that, just like Rodon, and if that's the only real issue, than that's great. I guess I need to hear if his velo was down, or if his mechanics were backing up, or if was anything substantial.

Or maybe it was character issues like this?

 

I forget who I saw the write up from, but the main theme was that his numbers are as good as they ever have been, there is nothing wrong with his stuff, and there haven't been any new redflags emerge about him.

As to the being a high strung guy, Baker Mayfield is on line 1.

[DirtySox]

I'd still prefer position player, but Singer is solid. Safe, but with some upside still.  Sounds like the Reds are all over him if he slips to 5.  I've watched a few starts of his earlier this year, but going to reacquaint myself with him against Georgia tomorrow. He's on the WatchESPN app via the SEC network for anyone that might want to tune in.

[DirtySox]

Numbers are closer than I thought.

[GenericUserName]

I believe Singer also had some arm issues during his physical coming out of high school and that was a big reason he didn't sign.

[turnin' two]

In my completely pointless opinion, I kind of hope the Sox go with Singer if he is available.  I guess I don't know why but I am hoping they go pitcher.  McClanahan is another guy I'd be completely ok with as his main issue seems to be control, and that is the issue I have the most faith in the Sox to fix.  If they go position player, I guess Madrigal is the guy I'd prefer... 

[Dam8610]

3 hours ago, DirtySox said:

PTown

3:12

How would you rank Jonathan India, Nick Madrigal, Keston Hiura, and Nick Senzel as prospects coming out?

 

Kiley McDaniel

3:12

Senzel/Madrigal, Hiura, India

If Madrigal is on the same level as Senzel as a draft prospect, and he's available when the White Sox are picking, they should pick him. I'd really like to get Madrigal and Larnach, but it looks like Larnach has played himself into the 20s.

[fathom]

Just a warning, if Sox take him, KLaw has always said he sees him as a reliever.  No, Keith doesn't hate the Sox

[fathom]

IIRC Singer has been ungodly clutch vs top teams/rivals

[GenericUserName]

7 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

If Madrigal is on the same level as Senzel as a draft prospect, and he's available when the White Sox are picking, they should pick him. I'd really like to get Madrigal and Larnach, but it looks like Larnach has played himself into the 20s.

I want another Madrigal teammate in Steven Kwan. He has some pretty crazy hitting stats. With the stats he has he probably has very good bat control, so I would love to be able to see what he could do with a launch angle optimized swing change. He is small (listed 5'9" 170lbs) but if Albies can hit dingers in the majors it shouldn't be a problem.