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Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil

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33 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

He really loves the sound of his own voice.  

It’s really infuriating.  They spent multiple years planning for this free agent class, proceed to hype it up all offseason, and then come up $50M short on Machado (to the fucking Padres) and bow out on Harper (at least it appears that way) without most (if not all depending on LAD) of the big spenders in play.

You know happens when I fuck up in life?  I apologize, say I will learn from the mistake, and STFU until I can prove that I did.  Coming in a distance second place for an elite free agent with an absolutely bizarre offer is not cool and these guys to accept responsibility for that.  Just sucks there appears to be no plan in place and these clowns will likely just gun-sling a team together with the few prospects that will be ready to start the 2020 and a bunch of B tier 30+ year old free agents.

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Position player superstars scheduled to hit free agency over the next 3 years (unless they sign extensions of course but we already know a few plan to test the market for sure):

Trout, Betts, Lindor, Correa, Seager, Bryant, Baez, Stanton (if he opts out).

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11 minutes ago, Colinski said:

Everyone knows the value of something is increase with rarity of the item. The fact that no other 26 year olds are hitting the free agents with HOF potential again makes Machado and Harper stupidly rare and thus value through the roof. 

Hahn misjudged this value massively and this has been double proven by the Arenado deal. 

The only younger person hitting the market soon is Bogaerts, nobody  seems excited by him becoming a White Sox player.

Bogaerts is awesome and probably a guy we should prioritize unless Timmy has a breakout 2019 season.  Just not likely to happen with these clowns in charge unfortunately.

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Position player superstars scheduled to hit free agency over the next 3 years (unless they sign extensions of course but we already know a few plan to test the market for sure):

Trout, Betts, Lindor, Correa, Seager, Bryant, Baez, Stanton (if he opts out).

Dude, you just need to stop!  Outside of likely Baez & Stanton, those guys will be getting $300M+ deals.  We don’t pay that much bro.  Also, the next 3 years is a pretty big window.  Three offseasons from now Rodon will be a free agent and we’ll only have two years left of Moncada, Lopez, etc.  We can’t wait that long to add impact talent.

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7 hours ago, Harper2Sox said:

Did the White Sox really have the financial resources to sign Machado?

“I don’t know exactly what people are saying when you talk about that, but I think I was clear that there were a couple of premium-type talents that fit along our timeline that we were going to be aggressive with, and I felt like we were. I also was pretty clear from the start going back years on this. I can’t promise we are going to convert on every target, whether it’s trade, Draft or free agent.

“At any point in this process I don’t think anything was necessarily promised other than trying to put ourselves in the best position to target guys who fit for the long term. We’ve been able to deliver on that more often than not in this process so far. This one, obviously, we didn’t convert on, and it’s disappointing and we feel it.”

 

This is what fathom is referring to in regards to Harper.  I for one and sick of hearing about being aggressive.  You either pay market value or you sit out.  Stop making lame excuses.

A little context would help here.  Who said this?  When?  Where did it come from?

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Bogaerts is awesome and probably a guy we should prioritize unless Timmy has a breakout 2019 season.  Just not likely to happen with these clowns in charge unfortunately.

Bogaerts is so versatile and could easily slide over to 3b even if TA emerges this year and Moncada and/or Madrigal do not. He’d be a great fit and the fact that he’s even younger than Machado is just icing on the cake. He should definitely be a target for the Sox in another 8 months.

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1 minute ago, Leonard Zelig said:

A little context would help here.  Who said this?  When?  Where did it come from?

Hahn surely...in the last few days.  Nobody else talks that way, or asks to be patted on the back for accomplishing basically nothing. 

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Dude, you just need to stop!  Outside of likely Baez & Stanton, those guys will be getting $300M+ deals.  We don’t pay that much bro.  Also, the next 3 years is a pretty big window.  Three offseasons from now Rodon will be a free agent and we’ll only have two years left of Moncada, Lopez, etc.  We can’t wait that long to add impact talent.

My point is this winter in which Harper and Manny being available as sub 30 yo megastars isn’t as rare as everyone is making it out to be. But it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity! No, actually it’s not. But all the big spenders are sitting on the sidelines! Ok but these guys are still getting their $300M+ contracts so who GAF.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Bogaerts is so versatile and could easily slide over to 3b even if TA emerges this year and Moncada and/or Madrigal do not. He’d be a great fit and the fact that he’s even younger than Machado is just icing on the cake. He should definitely be a target for the Sox in another 8 months.

Unless he starts cleating people and making dumb comments about not hustling, we have no chance at him.  And even if he develops serious off the field baggage we’ll miss by $50M or blow it because we won’t incluce competitive opt-outs.

You need to focus on a different tier of players.  Older / semi-questionable guys like Goldschmit, Martinez, & Bumgarner are our only hope.  It’s dangerous game to play, but it’s the sad reality when you’re afraid to sign 26 year old future HOFs to below market contracts.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

My point is this winter in which Harper and Manny being available as sub 30 yo megastars isn’t as rare as everyone is making it out to be. But it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity! No, actually it’s not. But all the big spenders are sitting on the sidelines! Ok but these guys are still getting their $300M+ contracts so who GAF.

This kind of thinking leads to signing Cabrera, Robertson and LaRoche...along with the Samardzija trade, and asserting it’s the equivalent of signing one superstar and is enough to push the team into contention.

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4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

My point is this winter in which Harper and Manny being available as sub 30 yo megastars isn’t as rare as everyone is making it out to be. But it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity! No, actually it’s not. But all the big spenders are sitting on the sidelines! Ok but these guys are still getting their $300M+ contracts so who GAF.

Those guys haven’t reached free agency though!  And please don’t down-play the fact the big spenders are sitting on the sidelines.  When those guys are finally looking to add, their involvement will push prices out to $350 to $400M easily.  This offseason was our best opportunity to land a under stud 30 stud and we’re already seeing with that Arenado contract how much of a steal that Machado deal is.  I applaud your optimism, but I don’t think it’s set within reality unfortunately.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Unless he starts cleating people and making dumb comments about not hustling, we have no chance at him.  And even if he develops serious off the field baggage we’ll miss by $50M or blow it because we won’t incluce competitive opt-outs.

You need to focus on a different tier of players.  Older / semi-questionable guys like Goldschmit, Martinez, & Bumgarner are our only hope.  It’s dangerous game to play, but it’s the sad reality when you’re afraid to sign 26 year old future HOFs to below market contracts.

Dye=broken leg

AJ=clubhouse cancer, card player in the clubhouse during games

El Duque=washed up/ancient, lost his stuff

Contreras= great stuff, but questionable mental makeup, chokes against Boston

Pods=sophomore slump

Iguchi=nobody even knew who he was

Hermanson=all kinds of health issues

Jenks=close to being out of baseball due to off field issues

 

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8 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

David Robertson was not a B tier signing. He was arguably the best reliever on the market. 

And he did a good job for the Sox.

He was still overpaid....or basically paid as an elite, Top 3-5 closer in the game.  2.7 fWAR in 2015 and 2016.

We couldn’t afford to pay an outside closer like that with the budget ceiling we were at, which is why almost every closer since 2000 has come internally or via trade (rather than free agency.)

The sad thing is that he is pretty much considered Hahn’s best non-international FA signing.

Edited by caulfield12

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37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Those guys haven’t reached free agency though!  And please don’t down-play the fact the big spenders are sitting on the sidelines.  When those guys are finally looking to add, their involvement will push prices out to $350 to $400M easily.  This offseason was our best opportunity to land a under stud 30 stud and we’re already seeing with that Arenado contract how much of a steal that Machado deal is.  I applaud your optimism, but I don’t think it’s set within reality unfortunately.

Let’s take a closer look at this. Why were many big spenders sitting on the sidelines for these two guys this winter? Luxury tax isn’t going away in the future unless something happens with the new CBA. Or could it be perhaps that the big spenders view these two players as somewhat flawed and not worthy of $300M+ contracts. Would the big spenders be sitting on the sidelines if Lindor and Trout were available instead of Machado and Harper? I doubt it. That tells me something about how even the big spenders are valuing Machado and Harper.

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7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Let’s take a closer look at this. Why were many big spenders sitting on the sidelines for these two guys this winter? Luxury tax isn’t going away in the future unless something happens with the new CBA. Or could it be perhaps that the big spenders view these two players as somewhat flawed and not worthy of $300M+ contracts. Would the big spenders be sitting on the sidelines if Lindor and Trout were available instead of Machado and Harper? I doubt it. That tells me something about how even the big spenders are valuing Machado and Harper.

Or they don’t have critical needs at those two positions...or they don’t want to go into luxury tax....or just don’t have enough financial flexibility.  

Teams like Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees and Cubs are trying to extend their own homegrown players first.

Harper has already received interest from the Nats, White Sox, Padres, Reds, Giants, Phillies and Dodgers.  He doesn’t need to have 12-15 suitors to prove a point.

Lindor and Trout will have no more than 6-8 legitimate suitors as well.

Edited by caulfield12

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5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Let’s take a closer look at this. Why were many big spenders sitting on the sidelines for these two guys this winter? Luxury tax isn’t going away in the future unless something happens with the new CBA. Or could it be perhaps that the big spenders view these two players as somewhat flawed and not worthy of $300M+ contracts. Would the big spenders be sitting on the sidelines if Lindor and Trout were available instead of Machado and Harper? I doubt it. That tells me something about how even the big spenders are valuing Machado and Harper.

You’re right but we have zero chance at the Trout’s, Bett’s, & Lindor’s of the world.  So either you go after that next tier of guys like Machado or Harper or you accept older guys, rebound types, and/or B tier free agents.

I’d be willing to wager large sums of money we end up with one of Goldschmidt or Martinez next year.  We’ll get one for big dollars on 4 or 5 year deal and Hahn will brag & boast about how awesome they are but will ignore the fact these guys will likely start to regress and are far more risky than the deals Machado & Harper got.

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57 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Dye=broken leg

AJ=clubhouse cancer, card player in the clubhouse during games

El Duque=washed up/ancient, lost his stuff

Contreras= great stuff, but questionable mental makeup, chokes against Boston

Pods=sophomore slump

Iguchi=nobody even knew who he was

Hermanson=all kinds of health issues

Jenks=close to being out of baseball due to off field issues

 

lightning never strikes twice 

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58 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Position player superstars scheduled to hit free agency over the next 3 years (unless they sign extensions of course but we already know a few plan to test the market for sure):

Trout, Betts, Lindor, Correa, Seager, Bryant, Baez, Stanton (if he opts out).

You have to include Rendon in that list .

Seager was injured last year and his fWAR in 2016  was 7.0 and 2017 was 5.9 totaling 12.9,  2015 was a rookie with limited AB's

Bryant 2018 2.3 due to some injuries 2017 6.7 ,2016 7.9 , 2015 6.1. Totaling 19.7

Rendon 2016 4.3 , 2017 6.7 ,2018 6.3  Totaling  17.3  3 of last 5 year had 6+

Correa has never had a 6.0 War but he also has only had 1 season with over 600PA the rest have been in the 400's due to injuries and rookie year.

Baez had a 5.3 last year which was his only year higher than a 2.3 . Breakout campaign to be sure but not enough great years yet to be called a superstar.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re right but we have zero chance at the Trout’s, Bett’s, & Lindor’s of the world.  So either you go after that next tier of guys like Machado or Harper or you accept older guys, rebound types, and/or B tier free agents.

I’d be willing to wager large sums of money we end up with one of Goldschmidt or Martinez next year.  We’ll get one for big dollars on 4 or 5 year deal and Hahn will brag & boast about how awesome they are but will ignore the fact these guys will likely start to regress and are far more risky than the deals Machado & Harper got.

I guess I find it difficult to pay “next tier” guys like Harper and Machado $300M+ contracts. Those types of contracts could destroy a mid market team like the Sox if they don’t live up to their contract. Apparently, many other teams felt the same way. 

Also, I’m only advocating for signing JDM, Goldy, etc. next winter if the young core takes a huge step forward this season. If they don’t and the Sox put up another 100 loss season, then you wait until the team is closer to  competing to make a big splash. I’m not saying they need to be a 85 win team before making a big move but I’d at least like to see them as a 75+ win team that’s headed in the right direction. We still don’t know what we have here with a lot of these young guys. And quite frankly, if the young guys don’t develop what’s the point in having a $30-35M player on a 85+ loss team? What if the Sox develop a bunch of solid OFs from their minor league system but can’t seem to develop a catcher or starting rotation? Now we’ve tied up a huge sum of money for a player that’s a marginal upgrade from pre arb players and tied our hands on filling more pressing needs since significant resources have already been expended. Stars and scrubs roster just like pre rebuild.

 

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2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You have to include Rendon in that list .

Seager was injured last year and his fWAR in 2016  was 7.0 and 2017 was 5.9 totaling 12.9,  2015 was a rookie with limited AB's

Bryant 2018 2.3 due to some injuries 2017 6.7 ,2016 7.9 , 2015 6.1. Totaling 19.7

Rendon 2016 4.3 , 2017 6.7 ,2018 6.3  Totaling  17.3  3 of last 5 year had 6+

Correa has never had a 6.0 War but he also has only had 1 season with over 600PA the rest have been in the 400's due to injuries and rookie year.

Baez had a 5.3 last year which was his only year higher than a 2.3 . Breakout campaign to be sure but not enough great years yet to be called a superstar.

You’re right. I was just rattling off a handful of obvious names but I’m sure there are a few others I left out.

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2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You’re right. I was just rattling off a handful of obvious names but I’m sure there are a few others I left out.

No problem. He often gets overlooked when talking about the elite players.

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22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess I find it difficult to pay “next tier” guys like Harper and Machado $300M+ contracts. Those types of contracts could destroy a mid market team like the Sox if they don’t live up to their contract. Apparently, many other teams felt the same way. 

Also, I’m only advocating for signing JDM, Goldy, etc. next winter if the young core takes a huge step forward this season. If they don’t and the Sox put up another 100 loss season, then you wait until the team is closer to  competing to make a big splash. I’m not saying they need to be a 85 win team before making a big move but I’d at least like to see them as a 75+ win team that’s headed in the right direction. We still don’t know what we have here with a lot of these young guys. And quite frankly, if the young guys don’t develop what’s the point in having a $30-35M player on a 85+ loss team? What if the Sox develop a bunch of solid OFs from their minor league system but can’t seem to develop a catcher or starting rotation? Now we’ve tied up a huge sum of money for a player that’s a marginal upgrade from pre arb players and tied our hands on filling more pressing needs since significant resources have already been expended. Stars and scrubs roster just like pre rebuild.

 

Ironically, you just made the case for why Harper is such a good fit for the Phillies. 

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52 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Let’s take a closer look at this. Why were many big spenders sitting on the sidelines for these two guys this winter? Luxury tax isn’t going away in the future unless something happens with the new CBA. Or could it be perhaps that the big spenders view these two players as somewhat flawed and not worthy of $300M+ contracts. Would the big spenders be sitting on the sidelines if Lindor and Trout were available instead of Machado and Harper? I doubt it. That tells me something about how even the big spenders are valuing Machado and Harper.

A good amount of it is coincidence. Why is Harper not a yankee? Because Giancarlo became available last offseason when the Marlins sold and Aaron Judge turned into a monster in 2017 - otherwise he's already a Yankee. Machado, why is he not a Dodger? Because Seager and Turner cover those positions there and you're not going to rotate those 3 guys. Why are the Red Sox out? In part because they're already at $230 million, in part because they still have a year left of Sandoval's deal on the books, in part because of Betts, Benintendi, Devers, and Bogarts; no needs at those positions this year.

We know those teams will go over the tax level, but we also know they'll hesitate to do it at positions where they are already deep.

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ironically, you just made the case for why Harper is such a good fit for the Phillies. 

He’s certainly a better fit for the Phillies than the Sox given the current state of each rebuild (as was Machado). Phillies are just now emerging from a 6 year rebuild and trending in the right direction. They also have a much better idea of where their weaknesses lie with far fewer holes to fill. Again, just my opinion, but the Sox aren’t there yet which is why I’ve said all along that the pursuit of these guys feels premature (anywhere from 1-3 years premature).

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