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Jack Parkman

Personal opinions on Sox rebuild pieces.

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My first post on this site.. The Sox have some great prospects which we all should love but lets be honest our system does not have a great track record at developing talent. This off season shows the Sox will not be a player with this current FO. We had a shot at 2 26 year old studs. If they were not going to spend on them you think they will spent on 28 or 29 y/o free agents?  Even if they did we have less of a window with them than we would a Harper or Machado. Trouts deal is going to blow away the 2 we just saw and he is older than Harper and Machado now! Trout will be 29 when he plays under his next contract. Bogarts, Betts Will be too expensive. Eloy should be solid and maybe Abreu hits better with a little line up protection. This organization has literally 0 guys that played for us last year that are a sure part of our future. Name a position we have a lock on today?

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5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What write-ups?

Go to each player page and read what they have to say. 

Lopez: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16400&position=P

Rodon: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16137&position=P

Giolito: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15474&position=P

 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Lopez showed some serious improvement with his k-rate as the season went on. Lopez is someone who if you took a dive into his numbers as the year went on, he showed vast improvement. His slider had more bite and he threw it more down in the zone. 

Lopez struck out 65 batters in his final 66 innings pitched - running a k-rate of pretty much 9.0 - he did this, while reducing his walks (only 20 in his final 66 innings) to 2.72. He also ran a WHIP of 1.07 - while his BABIP was slightly suppressed at .250ish, he should run lower BABIP's given his high FB rate. 

It's surprising to me that Fangraphs have pigeon holed Lopez given his significant improvement as the year went on.

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1 hour ago, Soxbears2001 said:

My first post on this site.. The Sox have some great prospects which we all should love but lets be honest our system does not have a great track record at developing talent. This off season shows the Sox will not be a player with this current FO. We had a shot at 2 26 year old studs. If they were not going to spend on them you think they will spent on 28 or 29 y/o free agents?  Even if they did we have less of a window with them than we would a Harper or Machado. Trouts deal is going to blow away the 2 we just saw and he is older than Harper and Machado now! Trout will be 29 when he plays under his next contract. Bogarts, Betts Will be too expensive. Eloy should be solid and maybe Abreu hits better with a little line up protection. This organization has literally 0 guys that played for us last year that are a sure part of our future. Name a position we have a lock on today?

Welcome Mr. 2001. 

Moncada is a lock for either third or second base for the next 5 years. He may not turn into a 6+ WAR stud but he is going to be playing everyday for the Sox. They invested way too much for him to ever cut bait. 

Anderson is a lock for shortstop until at least 2023 when his club options start to kick in. The Sox invested 25 million in this kid so he ain't going anywhere anytime soon. 

Eloy should also be a lock for left field for the forseeable future. 

Rodon should be a lock for the rotation for the next 3 years, although is looking more and more like a back end type of guy. 

That is about it, however. This team is still in the talent acquisition phase of the rebuild. Another 2 or 3 years of tanking is the most likely course of action. 

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On 3/4/2019 at 12:55 PM, Jack Parkman said:

Dye's 2006 was one of the best offensive seasons by a Sox hitter outside of Frank. 

Crede in 2006 was no slouch.

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4 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

Rodon should be a lock for the rotation for the next 3 years, although is looking more and more like a back end type of guy. 

That is about it, however. This team is still in the talent acquisition phase of the rebuild. Another 2 or 3 years of tanking is the most likely course of action. 

I don't know how you can say Rodon looks like a back end guy.

No way they are tanking in 2-3 years.  If so, the rebuild is a complete failure.  Tank has to end this year.

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14 hours ago, Nardiwashere said:

I don't know how you can say Rodon looks like a back end guy.

No way they are tanking in 2-3 years.  If so, the rebuild is a complete failure.  Tank has to end this year.

They probably will be. Their pitching leaves a lot to be desired. Rodon may take a step forward, he may not. Same with Giolito and Lopez.  I hope one of Giolito or Lopez can take a step to be a mid-rotation starter.  Kopech should be a TOR starter. Cease will probably be either a TOR starter or a back end bullpen guy. After that, the pitching gets really thin. Dunning and Hansen can't be counted on, due to injuries, and we have to wait to see what Pilkington does but I'm not overly enthused. There are a bunch of C prospect pitchers in this system afterward, and it would be nice. Most of the pitching is here either already or will be in 2020 and the position players will come up around that time as well. The next 3 years are highly important, and the most important is 2021. If it doesn't click in 2021, this whole thing is kaput. Not that it may matter much, but 2023 starts the exodus: 

2023 FA: Lopez, Giolito

2024: Moncada, Anderson

2025: Kopech

2026: Jimenez

I'm starting to believe that Moncada isn't going to be that 6+ WAR stud. I think he'll settle into the 3-4 win range. So, if  a window opens, it will be from 2021-2025. Sox need to add to their rotation for those years. They should go get Gerrit Cole next offseason.

Edited by Jack Parkman

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43 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They probably will be. Their pitching leaves a lot to be desired. Rodon may take a step forward, he may not. Same with Giolito and Lopez.  I hope one of Giolito or Lopez can take a step to be a mid-rotation starter.  Kopech should be a TOR starter. Cease will probably be either a TOR starter or a back end bullpen guy. After that, the pitching gets really thin. Dunning and Hansen can't be counted on, due to injuries, and we have to wait to see what Pilkington does but I'm not overly enthused. There are a bunch of C prospect pitchers in this system afterward, and it would be nice. Most of the pitching is here either already or will be in 2020 and the position players will come up around that time as well. The next 3 years are highly important, and the most important is 2021. If it doesn't click in 2021, this whole thing is kaput. Not that it may matter much, but 2023 starts the exodus: 

2023 FA: Lopez, Giolito

2024: Moncada, Anderson

2025: Kopech

 2026: Jimenez

I'm starting to believe that Moncada isn't going to be that 6+ WAR stud. I think he'll settle into the 3-4 win range. So, if  a window opens, it will be from 2021-2025. Sox need to add to their rotation for those years. They should go get Gerrit Cole next offseason.

Just as a general point...out of 8 key guys the White Sox traded for, 5 of them were starting pitchers. Throw in the 2014 and 2015 top 10 picks, all the other draft picks the white sox made since then, trades for minor leaguers like Medeiros who are somewhere on a top 20 list...and then compare to Cleveland, who has 4 top of the league, 200K starters developed from their own system, and I think there's a simple statement we can make.

If the White Sox can't develop enough pitching that they have to go and spend $25 million a year on a starter, it's unlikely this rebuilding round is going to work.

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35 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just as a general point...out of 8 key guys the White Sox traded for, 5 of them were starting pitchers. Throw in the 2014 and 2015 top 10 picks, all the other draft picks the white sox made since then, trades for minor leaguers like Medeiros who are somewhere on a top 20 list...and then compare to Cleveland, who has 4 top of the league, 200K starters developed from their own system, and I think there's a simple statement we can make.

If the White Sox can't develop enough pitching that they have to go and spend $25 million a year on a starter, it's unlikely this rebuilding round is going to work.

I've already come to terms with that thought, and I believe it to be true. I think it has more to do with bad luck though than anything. They shot for the moon with their trades, and targeted highly volatile, but also extremely talented players with some of their high picks, and all of their trades, and so far it looks like they're going to hit on only 0-1 of them. The one guy they might hit on is Kopech. Giolito, Kopech, Moncada, Robert, and Cease were all high variance players in terms of outcome. Kopech and Robert have health issues, Moncada is settling into the middle of his range. While still a solid MLB player, he's probably going to be nothing more than a 2-4 win 3B. Fulmer completely busted, Giolito looks headed there. Rodon is probably the left handed version of Javy Vazquez. Collins is a weird player that I don't know what to make of. Madrigal reeks of making the "safe" pick. Cease is somewhere between Lopez and Kopech, and based on how they're handling him, the best case scenario might be a prime Rich Harden.(a great starter while pitching, but can only go 4-5 innings per game)  While there is still time for some of this to work, that window is closing. I also don't know what to make of Lopez. Eloy is probably the safest player but he hasn't been in the majors yet and with the way the rest of this rebuild isn't working, I can't count my chickens. 

This begs the question: Is this a talent evaluation problem, the baseball gods smiting the Sox rebuild, or is it a combination of both? I really can't answer it. And at what point do Hahn and KW get whacked? 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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36 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just as a general point...out of 8 key guys the White Sox traded for, 5 of them were starting pitchers. Throw in the 2014 and 2015 top 10 picks, all the other draft picks the white sox made since then, trades for minor leaguers like Medeiros who are somewhere on a top 20 list...and then compare to Cleveland, who has 4 top of the league, 200K starters developed from their own system, and I think there's a simple statement we can make.

If the White Sox can't develop enough pitching that they have to go and spend $25 million a year on a starter, it's unlikely this rebuilding round is going to work.

Kluber and Bauer were developed elsewhere. What 4 starters did Cleveland develop?

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On 3/4/2019 at 12:05 PM, Jack Parkman said:

This is the key to the rebuild. It depends on those three guys. If two don't develop in to stars, they're screwed. As good as Eloy is, both Moncada and Robert's ceilings are higher. Eloy is the safest bet to reach his ceiling, but his ceiling is, in my opinion~4.5-5.5 WAR. Moncada and Robert will probably be at least 2.5-3.5 WAR players, with the ability settle in at 5-6.5 and put up individual seasons of 7-8+

Ceiling in terms of player comp, based on my opinion: 

Eloy-JD Martinez

Robert-Mookie Betts

Moncada-Jose Ramirez

This is ceiling, as in best case scenario people. 

 

No way, Jack.  The other two are valid.

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8 hours ago, oldsox said:

No way, Jack.  The other two are valid.

I understand what you're saying.  He's the best guy I could think of. I don't think Moncada will ever hit .300+ like Ramirez does, but in many other ways they're similar. If Moncada does just a decent improvement to his hit tool he's going to hit .275-.290. He has that kind of power/speed combo though. I can't think of anyone better to compare him to. What other 3B have the power/speed combo that Moncada has other than Ramirez? I can't think of any.  Moncada could end up hitting over .300 and being comparable to Jose Ramirez. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Is it out of the question? No. Moncada has so many possible outcomes attached to his profile. He's still only 23. 

 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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47 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Kluber and Bauer were developed elsewhere. What 4 starters did Cleveland develop?

And we didn't draft Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Kopech, Dunning, or Medieros. 

Somehow Cleveland pulled off a dominant starting rotation using far fewer resources than we have spent on that position, and they haven't had to go sign a $25 million pitcher to do it. If all those resources we spent on that position flop...then our position player prospects better work out great to leave us money to spend on pitching. And that post I replied to was saying "Well Moncada may never be what we wanted", which means we're concerned about the position players too.

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26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And we didn't draft Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Kopech, Dunning, or Medieros. 

Somehow Cleveland pulled off a dominant starting rotation using far fewer resources than we have spent on that position, and they haven't had to go sign a $25 million pitcher to do it. If all those resources we spent on that position flop...then our position player prospects better work out great to leave us money to spend on pitching. And that post I replied to was saying "Well Moncada may never be what we wanted", which means we're concerned about the position players too.

The bottom line is there is no prospect the Sox have without massive questions somewhere in their game. Eloy is the closest, but he has the problem of potentially being a DH. When your safest and best position prospect doesn't actually have a position, I don't think you're in very good shape.

There is also some evidence starting to build in the over the last 5-8 seasons that if a top prospect struggles early they're probably not going to be the star everyone thought they would be, and if a player comes up from the minors and tears it up immediately, they'll probably be a star, and you'll know for sure just how good they'll be based on season #2. Also, when drawing up prospects that disappoint or bust completely, they have the most questions about their hit tool or power. You can't make it in today's game without a decent hit tool and decent power. Most of the players that develop late are guys that people didn't think much of initially, like Jose Altuve and Corey Kluber. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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My favorite prospects are:

 

1)Robert because of his speed but striking out 4 times walks is not going to help his cause.

2)Gavin Sheets looks like the best pure hitter the Sox have.

3)Rutherford looks like he is getting better, should be interesting to watch.

 

What scares me is that alot of Sox prospects are getting hurt.  Is it just coincidence or are they not training well?

 

1st post here, glad to be a part of this board, Go Sox!

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

And we didn't draft Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Kopech, Dunning, or Medieros. 

Somehow Cleveland pulled off a dominant starting rotation using far fewer resources than we have spent on that position, and they haven't had to go sign a $25 million pitcher to do it. If all those resources we spent on that position flop...then our position player prospects better work out great to leave us money to spend on pitching. And that post I replied to was saying "Well Moncada may never be what we wanted", which means we're concerned about the position players too.

We were always going to augment the team in free agency, so not sure I get the point you’re getting at.  

There is zero doubt in my mind we should acquire a TOR starter next season even if we’re still high on all our young arms.  First & foremost, Kopech & Cease will be in their first full seasons and shouldn’t be counted on to anchor a rotation in 2020.  Second, we’ll have a ton of financial flexibility and hopefully not a ton of holes to use it on.

If Verlander has a strong 2019 and is showing no signs of slowing down, I’d offer him something like 2/$75M.  My 2020 rotation would then be Verlander, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, and either Rodon, Giolito, or Dunning.  By the time Justin moves on, Kopech & Cease should be ready & able to headline what should hopefully be a young dominant rotation.

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15 minutes ago, Soxbears2001 said:

Moncada is a .236 hitter with no improvement in 2 seasons. Anderson does not even have .300 obp. If those are locks this is not going to work.

I couldn't believe my eyes when I seen Moncada finish 2018 season with 217 K's. It seems like too many Sox batters hit in the low .200's, with gobs of strikeouts, and a good amount of HR's. This is not the sign of a good hitting team. 

 

The good news is with Moncada, he has changed some things for the better, as we can see he is hitting better this Spring.

Edited by Chisox378

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41 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We were always going to augment the team in free agency, so not sure I get the point you’re getting at.  

There is zero doubt in my mind we should acquire a TOR starter next season even if we’re still high on all our young arms.  First & foremost, Kopech & Cease will be in their first full seasons and shouldn’t be counted on to anchor a rotation in 2020.  Second, we’ll have a ton of financial flexibility and hopefully not a ton of holes to use it on.

If Verlander has a strong 2019 and is showing no signs of slowing down, I’d offer him something like 2/$75M.  My 2020 rotation would then be Verlander, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, and either Rodon, Giolito, or Dunning.  By the time Justin moves on, Kopech & Cease should be ready & able to headline what should hopefully be a young dominant rotation.

The huge issue is that they don't want to pay the price to augment the team through FA. Any outside help is going to come from the bargain bin. One of the pitchers they have absolutely has to become a TOR pitcher otherwise they are fucked. In other words, if Kopech isn't an ace they're fucked. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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48 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The huge issue is that they don't want to pay the price to augment the team through FA. Any outside help is going to come from the bargain bin. One of the pitchers they have absolutely has to become a TOR pitcher otherwise they are fucked. In other words, if Kopech isn't an ace they're fucked. 

Maybe they just didn't want to pay $300M . A  $75 ,85,  100M is possible . I know optimism is outlawed here now but what else are they going to use the money for ?

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

And we didn't draft Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Kopech, Dunning, or Medieros. 

Somehow Cleveland pulled off a dominant starting rotation using far fewer resources than we have spent on that position, and they haven't had to go sign a $25 million pitcher to do it. If all those resources we spent on that position flop...then our position player prospects better work out great to leave us money to spend on pitching. And that post I replied to was saying "Well Moncada may never be what we wanted", which means we're concerned about the position players too.

Kluber was traded at 24 years old and started within a year. 

Bauer similar to giolito as he had a cup of tea in the big leagues before the Sox traded for him. It took bauer 5 years in Cleveland to figure it out and he credits driveline entirely so I'm not sure I'm ready to say Cleveland developed bauer and kluber.

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3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Maybe they just didn't want to pay $300M . A  $75 ,85,  100M is possible . I know optimism is outlawed here now but what else are they going to use the money for ?

We literally saw how they blew $45 million this offseason on mostly unnecessary garbage. Extend Abreu, bring in a few other vets, overpay a reliever or two, and there's a $100 million payroll.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

We literally saw how they blew $45 million this offseason on mostly unnecessary garbage. Extend Abreu, bring in a few other vets, overpay a reliever or two, and there's a $100 million payroll.

But to return to the 130s of the past with inflation puts them at 160 in payroll today. So they should have room to spend but if they will who knows.

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1 hour ago, Soxbears2001 said:

Moncada is a .236 hitter with no improvement in 2 seasons. Anderson does not even have .300 obp. If those are locks this is not going to work.

They were also 2 WAR players at less than 25 yo last season. Based on last year’s performance, they are already average starters. Slight improvement and these are 3-4 WAR players, top 10 players at their position.

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