Dam8610 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Rowand44 said: And pegged Dane as a 2-4 starter for the next 6 years when we have 0 clue what he is. FanGraphs thinks he's worth 2.4 WAR in 2021. 2-4 WAR over the next 6 years seems reasonable barring injury given that, especially when considering the conservatism of their projection systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 (edited) 36 minutes ago, RagahRagah said: I consider myself a stat guy, but when people simply narrow their tunnel vision down to WAR and look at or consider nothing else it is just worth an eye roll and little else. All of Lynn's rate stats declined in 2020 and were closer to his career norms, and combining that with him entering his age 34 season, makes his 2019 season seem anomalous. I don't "just look at WAR", but WAR is the quick and easy way to communicate value without much in the way of debate. Also, if you didn't notice the age, asset cost to acquire, and likelihood of production continuance portions of my argument previously, you're blind. It was never just about WAR, and you're the one using reductionist thinking to arrive at the conclusion that it was. Edited December 13, 2020 by Dam8610 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: All of Lynn's rate stats declined in 2020 and were closer to his career norms, and combining that with him entering his age 34 season, makes his 2019 season seem anomalous. I don't "just look at WAR", but WAR is the quick and easy way to communicate value without much in the way of debate. Also, if you didn't notice the age, asset cost to acquire, and likelihood of production continuance portions of my argument previously, you're blind. It was never just about WAR, and you're the one using reductionist thinking to arrive at the conclusion that it was. Even his career norms have been solid. 2020 was also an anomaly season and always a bad example in any argument (I'm consistent on that). Edited December 13, 2020 by RagahRagah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, RagahRagah said: Even his career norms have been solid. 2020 was also an anomaly season and always a bad example in any argument. The Sox didn't pay for a 3 WAR starter. They paid for a 5-7 WAR starter they're unlikely to get. Meanwhile one who is likely to produce that is on the market and would not have cost Dane Dunning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Dam8610 said: The Sox didn't pay for a 3 WAR starter. They paid for a 5-7 WAR starter they're unlikely to get. Meanwhile one who is likely to produce that is on the market and would not have cost Dane Dunning. They didn't "pay" anything. They gave up a prospect. I'm actually not in favor of the trade; never was. I agree. But that's irrelevant now and not the point here. It's a die roll. You can't measure WAR as a comparison to what they gave up because we possibly don't even know what we gave up yet. It's possible we got a steal and don't know it yet. Not likely, but acting as if Lynn hasn't been good (his 2020 was also solid anyway) is just laughable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox1917 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Surprised this thread is still going. Bauer isnt coming here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said: Bauer isnt coming here Maybe the thread title can be changed to this. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, RagahRagah said: They didn't "pay" anything. They gave up a prospect. I'm actually not in favor of the trade; never was. I agree. But that's irrelevant now and not the point here. It's a die roll. You can't measure WAR as a comparison to what they gave up because we possibly don't even know what we gave up yet. It's possible we got a steal and don't know it yet. Not likely, but acting as if Lynn hasn't been good (his 2020 was also solid anyway) is just laughable. You're right about it being a die roll. If your goal is "A 5+ WAR starter to pair with Giolito for a playoff run", getting Bauer is like needing a 3 or greater on a six sided die to succeed, while getting Lynn is like needing a 6 on a six sided die to succeed. Success is not assured either way, but one is far more likely than the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ok everyone, you heard 1917, vacate this thread. He has spoken. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Dam8610 said: You're right about it being a die roll. If your goal is "A 5+ WAR starter to pair with Giolito for a playoff run", getting Bauer is like needing a 3 or greater on a six sided die to succeed, while getting Lynn is like needing a 6 on a six sided die to succeed. Success is not assured either way, but one is far more likely than the other. What you're saying is subjective, but ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Dam8610 said: You're right about it being a die roll. If your goal is "A 5+ WAR starter to pair with Giolito for a playoff run", getting Bauer is like needing a 3 or greater on a six sided die to succeed, while getting Lynn is like needing a 6 on a six sided die to succeed. Success is not assured either way, but one is far more likely than the other. Yet Bauer has 17.5 career WAR and Lynn 24. Bauer looks great in addition to Lynn. But judging each one together, it is relatively close. Edited December 13, 2020 by SonofaRoache Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan49 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 To save myself from watching 18 minutes, can someone tell me who Bauer listed as his top 5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdsox17 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, soxfan49 said: To save myself from watching 18 minutes, can someone tell me who Bauer listed as his top 5? I skimmed through it. Shockingly, it has nothing of substance. Top 5 fan bases in terms of their courtship of him. Honestly, I think this guy might be a disaster. I know everyone wants him, but I question how long his act lasts. Edited December 13, 2020 by tdsox17 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 hours ago, RagahRagah said: What you're saying is subjective, but ok. All predictive analysis has an element of subjectivity. It's impossible to truly predict one player's decline, but it is possible to apply trends from the 100+ year history of baseball, and more relevantly the last ~10 years of player data to predict the likelihood of a decline based on predictive factors. 4 hours ago, SonofaRoache said: Yet Bauer has 17.5 career WAR and Lynn 24. Bauer looks great in addition to Lynn. But judging each one together, it is relatively close. On what basis do you see these two pitchers as "relatively close"? I mean, I guess if you consider low end 2/high end 3 (Lynn) to be close to at worst high end 2 (Bauer), then that claim makes sense. I don't consider those two things to be close to one another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy Harold Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 8:52 PM, Dam8610 said: All predictive analysis has an element of subjectivity. It's impossible to truly predict one player's decline, but it is possible to apply trends from the 100+ year history of baseball, and more relevantly the last ~10 years of player data to predict the likelihood of a decline based on predictive factors. On what basis do you see these two pitchers as "relatively close"? I mean, I guess if you consider low end 2/high end 3 (Lynn) to be close to at worst high end 2 (Bauer), then that claim makes sense. I don't consider those two things to be close to one another. Lynn is a proven starter who has been solid his entire career. We have no idea what Dunning might actually be yet. That's the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoxfan Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 What’s the video about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said: His videos are such a waste of time. He blathers on forever and never really has anything to say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 (edited) Honestly, I think that there's still a chance the Sox might blow their budget IF they can get Bauer for around the same price they were willing to pay Wheeler(like 5/130-ish) but that's just me being optimistic. Edited December 19, 2020 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, RagahRagah said: Lynn is a proven starter who has been solid his entire career. We have no idea what Dunning might actually be yet. That's the point. That logic dictates they should go out and sign Nolan Ryan or Felix Hernandez. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: That logic dictates they should go out and sign Nolan Ryan or Felix Hernandez. I see your point, but that’s not exactly true. Felix was terrible at the end of his career, so at this moment in time, it is not true that he has been solid his entire career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: I see your point, but that’s not exactly true. Felix was terrible at the end of his career, so at this moment in time, it is not true that he has been solid his entire career. Would Clemens or Pettite fit better? Either way, the point is age is a relevant factor that RagahRagah doesn't seem to take into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: Would Clemens or Pettite fit better? Either way, the point is age is a relevant factor that RagahRagah doesn't seem to take into account. Agreed. That’s why I said I see your point. Lynn isn’t quite at the age where I’m worried about his age, but I can certainly understand it if you are concerned. I’d be happy to take a bet where I’d lose $100 if Lynn’s WAR is under 5 and I’d win $500 if his WAR is over 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: Agreed. That’s why I said I see your point. Lynn isn’t quite at the age where I’m worried about his age, but I can certainly understand it if you are concerned. I’d be happy to take a bet where I’d lose $100 if Lynn’s WAR is under 5 and I’d win $500 if his WAR is over 5. I'd take that bet as well, on the side you're saying you'd take, of course. 20% is reasonable as the chance that Lynn gets 5 WAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: I'd take that bet as well, on the side you're saying you'd take, of course. 20% is reasonable as the chance that Lynn gets 5 WAR. I was actually just basing it off of the 5-1 odds you gave with the die analogy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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