SoCalChiSox

Yeah now I feel something is legit close and also Jimmy has been speaking up quite a bit lately as to names and stuff in BAL packages specifically that would get a deal done. It may be irrational exuberance on my part but I feel there's alot of smoke now.

The former.

This was my first thought too. Harold is hearing Cowser and Ortiz perhaps and maybe things are getting close. That's the feel of his post. That's fine with me. I'm willing to accept 20 HRs from Cowser if there's also like 370 OBP, a decent glove and good speed. But if he turns into Beni....nah. Need at least 20 bombs tho. Ortiz provides great insurance in case Montgomery can't stick at SS in which case Montgomery to 3B and Ramos to 2B. I just hope the bat is satisfactory. Who is the third piece Harold?

Defense or no defense, we still need some legit bats Harold.

We need a LH OFer badly and actually LH anything so no to Westburg.

Jimmy said it will be a 4 person package. Now, the bottom 2 may not be much but I doubt they will both be lottery tickets. IMO, the third piece will be at least a semi useful prospect. Demand is too high for it not to be.

Ahh I see....yeah if Povich isn't in the package it doesn't make sense for his people to be told otherwise what would be in the package. I have a hard time seeing Getz accept a package without Povich tho, unless it's like Hall and I don't see BAL moving him.

See page 116 for the following post and subsequent replies: Should be an interesting next few days, it's getting hot & crow is in the oven

Thanks for the response. If he is from the Povich camp, and Povich is like the third piece tho then maybe he's been informed he's getting moved. I'm sorry but I'm just trying to find any sliver of hope/excitement at this point even if all the evidence is to the contrary. I know Elias is a hardass and I know JR is pushing a SP heavy deal, so theoretically BAL should be out, but I'm trying to will it/pray it into existence anyway IDGAF. I dont care what the team wants, I know what I want and I really really want it to happen.

Perhaps @Frobby or @Sports Guy can explain this to us....or maybe I'm reading too much into it, but on their board there's a cryptic post by someone called Husker Guy who people seem to think is some kind of associate/has some relationship with Cade Povich and the way I'm reading it suggests something is about to go down? If we can get some version of this package done that we've been talking about with Povich as the third piece it would be so awesome. It would mean Getz convinced JR that we've gotten a sufficient amount of SP prospects where we feel ok and it's ok to get some savages too. By contrast, if it's a trade for Burnes or whatever using Santander and Povich it will be soul crushing. Or maybe I'm reading too much into it.

This is not really a rebuild. It's like a half ass half measure where they are stuck in between a fantasy of a retool and a full on rebuild. I dont doubt JR was truly miserable with all the losing last year and he doesn't want to go thru the slog of a full on rebuild at his age. He also wants a relatively quick turnaround otherwise ticket sales will be beyond awful. After all, you have to create some hope and that whole build a 2nd place team in order to keep some acceptable level of fan interest to keep money rolling in. This is also why they can't seemingly move Robert now or else interest would truly tank. On the other hand this is not a true rebuild in the sense that you have referred to...if we were really trying to turn every asset into prospects we would sell off Robert for a kings ransom right now while his value is highest, eat a big chunk of Moncada, Eloy and Beni's money for real returns. Or at least take on a bad contract or so to buy some prospects. But we're not doing any of that. JR is trying to quickly retool while simultaneously getting the financial benefits of a rebuild. You can't have it both ways.

Why are we talking about ERA for one cherry picked month and why are we talking about ERA at all? What is this, 1955? If the argument is because he had a bad August this proves that "by the end of the season the dude was totally broken" how do you explain the xFIP of 3.11 in Sept/Oct? If all it takes to make an argument is picking one month, then i could easily argue the much better xFIP and wOBA subsequently in Sept/Oct proves that Cease "found himself" and is a Cy Young caliber guy again. I'm not claiming he "found himself" because of one month. I'm saying in the last three years he had two 4.5 WAR seasons and even in a down year he still had 3.7 WAR which is super valuable especially when he's earning pennies.

It strains the outermost boundaries of credulity to suggest an fWAR of 3.7 instead of 4.4 is "badly broken" but I'm glad you are arguing in good faith here Balta...

OMG...so basically the JR edict that he's not going to pay money for pitching in the next rebuild is true and we are artificially forced to accept SP prospect only offers. So basically it could only be ATL, CIN, CHC or LAD at this point, right? So BAL is just a stalking horse used for leverage only and Getz doesn't give a s%*# about them even if savages are offered?

BOS and NYY badly need cheap pitching and I'm not even ruling out the Dodgers because they could add to their rotation with very little cash expense and when Ohtani, Buehler, May etc all come back there isn't going to be room for their prospects. The LAD could easily offer one SP, Pages and Busch and it wouldn't affect them on the field one bit. I dont think they are out yet despite their moves, esp if Burnes isn't getting moved. And Cease isn't a luxury for ATL. He's a need. Its unlikely they beat the LAD in a series unless they put a stud on the mound every single night. Right now they can't quite do that.

We have heard that Elias is "very difficult" to work with in these trade talks. Getz unhealthy obsession with pitching probably isn't helping I agree, but if you guys are offering Ortiz or Norby as the main piece plus a couple non Top 100s, then certainly BAL has more than a little blame here.

And honestly about 95% of us here would be more than fine with that 3 person package and if that's the three any fourth piece is gravy. This is where it's going to end up, so BAL either should get on board or stop playing games. Neither BAL, CIN, ATL, NYY or BOS is likely to end up with Snell or Montgomery so Elias trying to "wait us out" is a nonsensical strategy. Cease will be in high demand even after those signings so BAL isn't exactly our only dance partner. Elias needs to s%*# or get off the pot.

I would rather have Angelos than Reinsdorf. They are both bottom tier owners but even though your POS owner is more cheap than ours (I can't believe I am saying this) at least yours has the good sense to actually objectively hire strong competent and highly qualified people and make the necessary investments in infrastructure, analytics and eggheads. Evidently, our cheap POS owner doesn't understand that you can have a payroll half our size and still very more successful than we are if you just make some decent infrastructure investments that will be pennies in a bucket in the big picture. Instead, our POS would rather hire incompetent folks who couldn't get a similar job anywhere else just so that he could use that as leverage to force them to do whatever he wants with his stupid meddling ways and dumb philosophy.

I'm saying if BAL isn't going to include a LHS there's no path for them to get Cease in this sellers market unless they literally clean out the rest of their system. Like literally clean it the f*** out. You can't protect FIVE guys and still get it done otherwise.

If they get Bradfield as like the third piece in a BAL Cease trade I can see them moving Robert next offseason as they'll have a good in house CF replacement ready if not for 25...maybe 26. Obviously the bats do not compare at all, but Getz has a massive hard on for D and athleticism.

I agree with you here....they should move Robert when his value is at its peak. He had a monster season and was healthy at the same time. There's 4 years remaining of control at cheap prices. The return will be much, much greater than Cease and I expect Cease to go for two Top 100s plus a very solid third piece.

This is a sellers market....the odds of the Sox accepting this kind of "quantity" package are zero. If BAL truly wanted to do a quantity package and protect their Top 5 guys, the sheer amount of quantity required would be so massive that it would make Elias and also the fanbase uncomfortable....like I don't mean a 4 person package, I mean like an 8 person package...maybe something like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Povich, Bradfield, DL Hall, AND two other guys in the 10-15 range in your system. Even then, Getz would get skewered for the lack of high end talent and it would be unclear if even that (even with Hall included) would be sufficient to save face for him.

If we get to the start of spring training and he hasn't been moved, it is only then that your theory might have some merit. The rubber hasn't met the road yet. Not even close.

I think they are gonna try first to move Santander, Hays for pitching so they can backfill the spots with the two left handed savages. Once it becomes painfully apparent that no one is going to give up even semi-quality pitching for that, Elias will need to decide whether to actually sack up or just wait till the deadline and see where things stand.

If the Red Sox in particular are desperate we could end up with an even better positional haul than BAL.