CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 08:50 AM) Short of giving him 5/110 of guaranteed money, the Sox probably didn't have much of a chance after the Mets entered the picture. I'm glad he's not coming to the Sox. I think Jackson and Desmond on short term contracts have a chance to work out. Bring in hungry, high character guys and hope they and some other guys (Cabrera and LaRoche) can bounce back while Eaton, Frazier and Abreu can put up All-Star seasons. The Sox probably aren't making the playoffs this year, but if they're trying to re-create 2005 in 2016, they would at least have a shot with a couple more veterans. I'm not sure even 5/110 guaranteed would have got it done now. His original demands were 6/150. He seemed really intent on getting $25M AAV and i figured all along he's end up back in the NL somewhere to feast on the pitching of all those teams rebuilding. That way he increases his chances of having another big year and getting that $25M AAV after the opt out for longer terms.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:29 PM) Sure would be nice if there was some young breakout potential at positions like SS, 2B and RF. Maybe a few flaws, but potential to turn a negative into a positive. Some ideas: The Dodgers have a bunch of OF, why not grab Trayce Thompson? He's at least a good defender. They also have Micah Johnson, might be useful to get a LH bat in a lineup that feature Adam LaRoche as its premier LH bat. Also, Oakland's got this SS, not so good with the glove but he can hit. I think his name is Semien? Don't forget we need some RH pitching depth and they have this Montas kid.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:10 PM) That would be beautiful. Trading with the Rockies is like trading for a guy you know is on steroids but won't be when you get him. OTOH he does have a hot wife.

QUOTE (CyAcosta41 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:26 PM) Mixed feelings for me on this one. If the deal is roughly as reported, Cespedes got just about the fair market price many experts predicted, but with the asterisk being he'll likely opt out after 1 year if he rolls out a Herculean 2016 to match his second-half of 2015. For players who like where they're at (see Alex Gordon), you need to knock out the champion (incumbent), not just beat them on points. The Sox PROBABLY offered something similar and didn't knock him out. And it sure seems that NO OTHER TEAMS tried to snag him with an above-market offer either (the Nats supposed 5 year offer supposedly have substantial deferred dollars and not likely a 1 year opt out). Bottom-line sure seems to be nobody tried too hard to lure him away from the Mets. Personally, playing armchair GM, if I'm Hahn, I stretch to lure him away. In my opinion, the upsides of Cespedes is worth taking on risks. In theory, he solves a lot of problems and brings a dash of fear into the lineup. And we've failed the same way so often before. Maybe you fail again, but let's try something different (and to me, failing with Dunn and LaRoche are very different animals than any possible failure with Cespedes). I hope Cespedes destroys the Cubs all season long as well, because: (1) duh, I can't stand the Cubs (more accurately, Cubs fans); and (2) I think that Cespedes might be a monster and I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox brain trust humbled a bit by not picking the low hanging fruit. No contradictions from me -- I think the Sox decision makers do things the right way, analyze their baseball decisions, and run a professional and measured business; unfortunately, they rock in assessing quality pitching, but they are arguably horrible in analyzing the offensive game. This where I am and the "horrible" is doing a lot of damage.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 07:29 PM) With good international scouting it might. Regardless of Abreu status, cespedes just isn't worth the chance. Unless it comes at a no more than 4 guaranteed deal. And I say he is. Agree to disagree. BUY THE GOOD MEAT !

Very comprehensive piece. Love how you pointed out how the defensive values are so weird and drawing too many conclusions about them is subjective. You didn't just pick a side you took the time to point out every angle. Very well written also . Must have proof read it thoroughly.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 06:29 PM) Yep, Alexei Ramirez or Kang last offseason..although even then, franchise altering is pushing the definition. We've been so successful (except Dayan) in Cuba we're now often priced out of that market. The one guy I really wanted last year at this time was Hector Olivera, and the Dodgers simply outbid everyone. It will be interesting to see how well the Koreans picked up by Balt and the Twins do...but, once again, franchise altering? Unlikely. I know I am pushing the envelop on Cespedes but how often do we hear the Sox are on the right path ? One World Series win in 100 years is a lot of right paths gone bad. The thing about Cespedes is he is EVERYTHING the Sox should want, power, defense speed and a marketing dream. You think season ticket packages went up last year because the Sox signed a bunch of FA ? Imagine signing Cespedes now. Hopes and season tickets or at least total attendance definitely increase. Cespedes with Abreu and it becomes a Southside Fiesta ! Not only does winning baseball bring fans back but everyone loves a good party. I hate to bring the Cubs into this but let's face it they have good attendance even in down years because it's party atmosphere there even if the place is a dump. Bienvenidos ! Welcome to the White Sox Party Win ,eat ,drink and be merry ! P.S. Buy the Good Meat !

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 05:57 PM) I agree they have been settling for the second tier FA. If RH is under this budget constraint, the other way to go is to create less dependency on FA. Now no team can forego all FA. But they produce or trade for proven MLB players. Then they can go out and get the one FA to put them over the top. I just don't agree that this scenario is now. Cespedes is not a superstar you sign to put you over the top. He is currently the best option, but not a franchise changing player. Have you seen what franchise changing players are going for now ? Over $200M ! Cespedes at less than his original expected price is about the most we can hope for. But still waiting on some franchise changing player just for around what we paid Abreu ($68M ). Hey it can happen again if it happened once right ?

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 10:23 AM) That is the only "potential" downside to signing Yoenis for five years, that he "might" not be as productive towards the end of the contract. Meanwhile, for the next two to three years, the window in which we'd like to compete, you get a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy in the middle of your lineup and a substantial improvement in the outfield defense. THAT'S WHAT WE NEED! And we don't have to give up any prospects or talent on the roster, nor sacrifice a draft pick to get him. He is the best option to fill one of our gaping holes in the outfield. If it means tacking on those two last years, then just do it, for godssake. He "might" just continue to be productive in those years as well, given he'll only be 33/34. Who knows! Let's worry about that in '19 and '20. For now, let's follow through with what I thought was the stated mandate which is to "maximize" the window of opportunity this team has right now to win in these next few years. Yoenis Cespedes provides us the best chance to do so among our existing options. We are singing in the same choir.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 01:54 PM) Obviously it was a reply to Cy Acosta...if we can't talk about the risks of standing pat that goes along with the assumption that Cespedes isn't worth the attendant risk, then what's the point of discussing Cespedes at all anymore? Great, Cespedes...too risky! So then what? Please explain what move doesn't carry a downside. Cali has been arguing about Cespedes for weeks and nobody has rebutted his point that we don't have enough proven run producers...highlighting that fact with his RBI and RISP (which will inevitably be described as luck or random or anomalies) numbers but I have yet to see a good response other than just a string of personal character attacks on Cespedes from shadowy sources. Thank you Caulfield and personally I think that was one of you better posts. Everything you talked about was related to how much the Sox need Cespedes . Just too much failure lately in a lot of areas. The failures mostly being in the "settling" type of FA who ends up crippling the Sox anyway because they all sucked . High end FA means less likely to suck right away . The Sox are "settlers" . That DirecTV commercial gets credit for me calling the Sox "settlers". They settle for leftovers and like hungry dogs they fight over the scraps. Then they find out the scraps have worms and the dog dies. Lesson learned buy the good meat. Maybe I won't argue for Cespedes any more using stats and logic. From now on I should probably just say . BUY THE GOOD MEAT !

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 11:48 AM) Compete, yes. Give everything away for an "all-in," no. The philosophy is to continue to improve the team while not sacrificing the future. none of the prospects traded away were possible impact players. He kept the really good ones and traded away "pieces." They may be MLB players but nothing of consequence. In return, he received proven MLB players which will help the team. Nothing he did will hurt the future and will help in the present. Minor league depth is not as important as impact prospects and proven MLB talent. Granted it's a risk just like signing FA to long term deals. However, with the financial constraints placed upon him, he cannot afford to have deadweight contracts on the books for an extended period of time. That's why signing FA to the longterm deals isn't a good play here. We just differ too much in regarding the future. You seem to know the future . You've repeatedly said his moves will not hurt the future. whereas I'm just dealing with how he's done in the present. You know the future that's great but sorry you don't. The present isn't good . That's what I know and so far there isn't much of a future to speak of without depth in the minors and players with only 1 or 2 years arriving via trade.

QUOTE (SoxSteve @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 11:42 AM) Good points but disagree with a few things. First of all the players we gave up for Shark didn't fit the Sox good at all. Semien is a nice player but his defense will NEVER be good enough for short IMO. The problem with the Sox is we have very good pitching with very bad defense. If your going to be a good pitching team and that seems the direction we are going in with a Sale, Q, Rodon, Fullmer Johnson rotation i think it defeats the purpose to have a Semien at short. I would rather sacrifice hitting for fielding at certain positions when your pitching is good. That's why a Anderson -Lawrie combo doesn't excite me. I'd much rather have a great hitting outfield with a great DH hitting and sacrifice some of that with defense on your infield. And i don't consider Phegley and Bassitt prime pieces to the White Sox future. Obviously the trade didn't work out with Shark being horsehit but i don't think we mortgaged any of our future with that deal. That being said we have a disjointed team right now with the below average defense in both the outfield and infield with above average pitching. How we solve that is anyone's guess. Hello welcome. One thing you'll notice about me, well , maybe not , no one else has, is that when it comes to minor leaguers I do not try to predict the future. I only hope for the very best for them and look at the high side. After all I am a Sox fan . No sense for my personal well being dwelling on the down side of youngsters. You on the other hand used an absolute like NEVER which I cannot accept. You may end up being right or wrong but NEVER doesn't work for me because things change with young people because they learn and grow. Maybe Semien doesn't play SS for the Sox , maybe he plays 2nd base , maybe he DH's maybe 3rd base. If the guy was truly terrible at SS how does he end up being given such a high ranking by the MLB network analysis that takes into account every facet of his game with high end statistics ?

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 10:32 AM) Jeez. Last offsesason it was Eminor and I vs. You, chitownsportsfan and Rock Raines on Avi. Then I would go to war with Dick Allen saying Gordon Beckham sucks too. People are all like "I just want the offseason to be over" but the alternative isn't great, hah. Last offseason he deserved a chance . He had that chance . He failed and now is not the time to be patient with him. He needs coaching and perhaps he is better off in the minors this year because the window is shrinking and question marks can't be addressed at the ML level . The Sox need proven production.

Hard to say even if you use any advanced metric because not only have the Sox changed but so have other teams. Will the Sox starting pitching be better ? Defense ? Relief Pitching ? I think it's a given the offense should be better even much better with Frazier and Cespedes and the upgrade at catcher and 2nd base. Last year the Sox played more 1 run games than any team .They were 29-30 in 1 run games. That might suggest with just a little more offense and the same pitching that record in itself could be much better. Cespedes has always driven in runs and hit with RISP. He would be insurance in case Frazier doesn't transition well from the NL .Together Abreu and Cespedes would be polarizing and dynamic . There's no doubt at all in my mind that Cespedes would hit and hit well . He'd also upgrade the OF defense and add another fast runner to the lineup . He also moves all the worst players down a notch on the roster. So LaRoche plays less, Avi plays less etc. I think at his best he's a huge difference maker as he showed with the Mets last year. I've seen projections for him from around 3 to 4.4 bWAR . All I know is it sure would be fun to find out the difference he would make. Winning is so much more fun than .500 or less.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:46 AM) I think this is something yet to be determined. The Sox switched philosophies with both drafting and handling the MLB roster when he took over. He has received good value for most of his trades and not sacrificed much. The past few drafts are producing MLB talent and provided enough depth to trade for MLB talent. That is really what the minors are for, either being MLB talent or acquiring it yet. The fact that he doesn't have the budget to take risky chances on long term deals is not his fault. He needs to play with the budget he gets. I think the short term deals for FA combined with the minors producing talent (or acquiring it) is the path to MLB success. RH has only had the job a few years and I like the philosophy he is following. It is not a quick process and many people aren't satisfied with the short term results but I think in hte long term it will payoff. Samardzija blew up Frazier and Lawrie are only 2 years . Shark was 1 year. Hahn didn't make those trades and FA signings thinking he wouldn't compete. He made them to compete in the short term . If he was playing the long term game and I can admit he still might be then where's the minor league depth ? You like his philosophy. I don't even see a philosophy. We aren't satisfied with the short term results because he's been playing the short term game and losing badly mainly because he can't finish what he started and what he started ends quickly with those traded for gone in 1 or 2 years.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:33 AM) Call me crazy but I'm not ready to give up on Avi yet. Cespedes is very inconsistent on offense and may become complacent with a big contract. I would not be surprised at all to see Avi put up numbers similar or better than Cespedes did in 2013 or 2014. Obviously there are still big differences between their defense and base running abilities but if Avi can improve even marginally in both I think he has a shot to be a useful player this year. I was as high on Avi as anyone on this board . Ask Eminor about that . But I've moved on. That's not to say I still don't think he's valueless but as of this moment for a team wanting to compete he is valueless. Sports illustrated did an article about Cespedes weighing his last 3 seasons on a 5/4/3 scale . Most of the weight given to last season but only a little more than 2014 and 2014 a little more than 2013. Now 2013 and 2014 are cited as his "inconsistent" years so overall they are weighted more than just his 1 great year. Then they project his value in bWAR for the coming years and what those years would be worth money wise. For someone who is supposedly very inconsistent they said for the 1st 3 years he's projected to be worth $84M , another $23.3 M in the 4th year and $20.3M in a fifth year. In order to get those highly productive 1st 3 years it's been standard practice to pay for a few years where he declines . You just have to hope it isn't a precipitous decline. http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/whats-he-...des-free-agency

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:30 AM) No one is going to go on the record except in the most extraordinary of situations. We both know that. But it is out there, and it is something that needs to be investigated and considered when deciding to spend 8 or 9 figures on a guy. Then it's just backlash speculative bulls*** not based on anything concrete against a guy who many are envious. Yes it's one of many things to be investigated. But when it get's more attention than is warranted and is cited as if its a fact it's irresponsible . There's one main reason that the Sox won't go longer term and it's that unless you are the Yankees Dodgers Red Sox it is fiscally irresponsible to hand out longer term contracts that pay for declining years. That has been apparent for years that those deals invariably becomes albatrosses to teams that don't have deep pockets. Unfortunately those contracts have been standard practice in MLB for years but the Sox still play the game hoping against hope and getting all our hopes up by playing the game and coming up short most of the time. When they do play the game and actually sign a FA they end up losing because the 2nd tier guys are almost always ore risky than the 1st tier guys Less financially volatile but more volatile as far as being productive on the field. In the last 2 years the Sox have given up 2 draft choices for free agents and possible a third if Desmond becomes a reality. Also 4 minor leaguers last year and 5 this year . Add up all that and it's 11 players from the minors and possibly 12 . Everyone says oh they will never be impact players . Yet Semien is already in the top 10 MLB SS according to MLB network analysis . Who knows who else may become valuable . Shark Lawrie and Frazier , that's 5 years total on the MLB field for 9 minor leaguers and 2 draft choices. I thought recently Hahn spoke of sustained success . How are they going to do that if they have to keep restocking the farm and getting outbid for FA difference makers ? Dumpster diving is pure luck. Relying on the few high end minor leaguers is highly speculative that they will make it. The only way to win the minor league game is have a deep system where more players can surprise you with unexpected development to offset those who disappoint you. The system is even less deep than it was now. In 2 years we start all over again because Melky, Lawrie Frazier are gone. Or we don't compete in those 2 years and trade off pieces. Either way it's starting over. Hahn has been a colossal failure . Getting Abreu and signing Sale Eaton Quintana to great deals doesn' t come close to all the failed money poured into unproductive FA's and prospects traded off. Those are a lot of players and years of control . So far it's his legacy that being below .500 or investing enough to be .500 and having no farm system is about what to expect.

QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 03:45 AM) of course hawk loves the move. fraizer is his type of TWTW guy. At least this time he got what Hawk said about Avi right instead of naming Hawk as saying it would make Avi a 30/30 guy. I know you said that was a joke or sarcasm but I always know sarcasm when I see it and laugh when others can't see it but attributing Hawk as saying something doesn't have a hint of joking or sarcasm in it. I mean maybe in your mind it does but it was not the least bit apparent.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:09 AM) I would also guess the work ethic stories also go somewhere towards projecting how soon and severe his eventual decline will be coming. What work ethic stories ? Is there one named source who says anything disparaging about his work ethic ? Because I can name Terry Collins as on record saying his game preparation is great. Would you be enlisting the help of a sport psychologist to be prepared mentally to do your best if you were a slacker ? All this stuff keeps getting brought up . It's all innuendo unless you can give me a link to someone going on record , not some unnamed scout or executive or yourself just throwing it out there as if it's fact.

QUOTE (Saufley @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 05:57 AM) With all the stuff coming out wondering if Cespedes would be a clubhouse cancer? What stuff ? Terry Collins has nothing but good things to say about him. Granted he's biased because Cespedes kicked ass for the Mets but he says his game preparation is great. Remember the thread about Abreu ? There was backlash against him too. Maybe not personality stuff but about his bat speed . I keep seeing all this stuff about Cespedes 2013 and 2014 and OMG what if he hit's like that again. Those years would only make him the 2nd best run producer on the Sox .People keep citing his OBP like he's a damn leadoff hitter. The guy is a clean up hitter . His main job is to clean up the bases of runners. 2013 was his 2nd year in the league . Ever heard of a sophomore slump ? Even Abreu didn't hit as well his 2nd year. And I'll take his 2014 too. With RISP .309 BA, .356 OBP , .522 SLG , .879 OPS 100 RBI's . That's bad all of a sudden ? For the last 2 years he's had more value than Abreu . Yet I continue to see how Cespedes isn't all that good. The Sox still don't have one player who can put up both good offensive and defensive numbers. Not a single one. Yet Cespedes keeps getting bad mouthed. Maybe it's because he's supposed to be humble that he got such a wonderful opportunity to play in the US after being in Cuba . Be like Jose Abreu. Say all the right things. Instead he's a little flamboyant and he's getting s*** for it. I know we are all leery after so many FA failures but Cespedes is a horse of a different color . There's no way he won't produce. He goes out of his way to prepare to be great. Yes he shouldn't smoke and shouldn't play as much golf as he does. As he ages that stuff will catch up to him. But who can really blame him for living life on his own terms ? He's enjoying his wealth and freedom. Those just aren't red flags to me .

Good news . Was hoping he'd re-sign.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 21, 2016 -> 05:12 AM) Just putting it in perspective...kind of pathetic that we're going to be fortunate to come out of this with Austin Jackson after all the hype and build-up. According to Harrelson, the presence of Frazier in the line-up alone will make Avi a 30-30 threat again. Hawk never said that . He said it would take " a lot of heat " off Avi. Why do people make things up ?

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 19, 2016 -> 02:40 PM) Now they have 83 pitchers on their active roster. Nice. More for Brandon McCarthy to be pissed off about.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 20, 2016 -> 07:06 PM) Why do you keep mentioning Lawrie as an outfielder? Thinking "just a bit outside " the box .

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jan 20, 2016 -> 06:58 PM) If the Sox miss out on Cespedes, at this point, I'm ready to convince myself that Fowler at 3/40 is fine. I would be also but the middle of the order would still be a concern . No ones expressed too much concern about Frazier batting 4th because he doesn't cost anything close to what Cespedes will get but that's my biggest worry without Cespedes. Of course Abreu could get 120 RBI's with Fowler but I'd still prefer the guy who can drive in runs. That was what hurt so much last year . Get guys on and no one drove them in time and time again.