Dam8610

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 01:33 PM) Safe to say any of us would trade Robertson for Robles in less than a heartbeat straight up ALL THE TOP 10 PROSPECTS!

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 01:25 PM) Yes, 4 top 100 including 2 top 50 is an insane package. Per the bmags soxtalk-value-to-actual value formula, you take out the 2nd and 4th best player in that package and you are a lot closer to a trade. Sale netted #1 and #30, so 2 top 50 isn't out of the question, Q is nearly as good as Sale if hype is ignored and production analyzed. So, fine, how about Torres, Frazier, Andujar, Montgomery?

Deal starts with Torres for the Yankees. Torres, Frazier, Sheffield, Andujar certainly moves the needle more than what the Astros have offered to date.

QUOTE (striker @ Dec 18, 2016 -> 03:46 PM) Jeff Sullivan's thoughts on Q to the Rockies. striker: Any scenario where White Sox can get both Rodgers and Dahl back from the Rockies for Quintana? Perhaps include Jones? Quintana + Jones for Rodgers, Dahl, Pint, Murphy + 3 other pieces. 10:29 Jeff Sullivan: Something built around Quintana/Jones and Rodgers/Dahl is not too lopsided either way. But I do hesitate to believe the Rockies would want to push forward like that, especially with Dahl lined up to help right away. I don’t know how much they’d believe Quintana would fit in that ballpark, and that would be a very heavy investment 10:30 Jeff Sullivan: If Colorado played elsewhere, the equation would be different. But Quintana in Coors could be a particular risk 10:30 Jeff Sullivan: He is, after all, mostly a contact pitcher If the Sox have to include Jones to get Dahl, I'd rather pursue a Rodgers/Tapia centered deal, maybe include a good arm and another bat with that.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 06:05 PM) Everyone have a great Easter today? Too busy celebrating independence day.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 04:51 PM) If we gut out the big league club (Q, Frazier, Abreu, Jones, Robertson, Melky), we'd have 10-11 guys in the Top 100, with 2 of the likely Top 5 (and Fulmer, Adams, and Burdi are firmly in the 100-150 range). While Frazier, Robertson and Melky will not likely to haul in any Top 100 prospects, our return would likely be a number of quality prospects from other org's top 10-20 list. When the dusts settles, the homegrown guys like Hawkins, May, Barnum, and Adolfo would not even crack our Top 30. Seriously, how many far systems in the past 10 years carry that kind of top end talent and depth? That's why if we don't end up with the best farm after trading all of those guys, I might just stop following this team. 10-11? By my count, trading all of those guys should net 12-15 top 100 prospects considering they have 5-6 now. I agree with the best farm statement, though.

QUOTE (BRIRO2017 @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 12:42 PM) Why do we have to read about the damn Cubs in every thread? WHO CARES about the damn Cubs. +1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 11:30 AM) After the first week, the Sox play 44 of 66 games on the road. Good luck with that hot start. Yeah, looking at the first 30 games, they have 12 home games, 18 road games, 24 division games (which the White Sox struggled with when they had Sale and Eaton), 3 games @ Yankees, and 3 games @ Orioles. 10-20 seems a lot more likely than 20-10 given the schedule.

QUOTE (Bighurt52235 @ Dec 17, 2016 -> 11:28 AM) I guess I missed what happened to his 6/68 contract. He was allowed to, and elected to, opt out of the deal into arbitration once he became eligible.

Then I guess we could rule out the #1 pick and brace for the collapse.

QUOTE (shipps @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 03:31 PM) If his catching was up too par is his bat far enough along to actually be in the bigs now? Just curious. He hit .258 with an .885 OPS in A+, which was, an aggressive assignment for him. That he was 1.5 years younger than average competition and had a 21.6% BB rate and over .200 ISO are both highly encouraging signs, while a 25.5% K rate is a cause for concern and makes his bat nowhere near ML ready. A 25% K rate in A+ would likely be much higher in MLB, not to mention the huge jump would likely destroy his development and turn him into a bad player. Right now, 2018 is an optimistic projection of him (unless it's late 2018), and 2019 is much more realistic. That said, a 21.6% BB rate and .200+ ISO as a 21 year old C in A+ are definitely signs to be excited about. If he can maintain anything close to those numbers while he cuts the K rate and improves his defense, he's going to provide the White Sox a huge leg up on this rebuild, as he would be a middle of the order bat at C, something that is nearly unheard of these days.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 02:00 PM) Correct me if I'm wrong, but the author didn't discount present value. $20 million of surplus value 5 or 6 years from now is not as valuable as $20 million in surplus value in years 1 and 2. No discount for PV or risk, which, if done, would make that offer from Houston as silly as we think it is. I think the best package the Sox can feasibly get from Houston (because they refuse to come off Bregman) is Reed, Tucker, Martes, and Stubbs. That gives you a power bat who had performed well at all levels until his first MLB stint, which may have been rushed, a good defensive catcher with a low K, high on base bat that has a non-zero chance of being a successful starter in MLB, and the very high ceilings of Tucker and Martes. That seems worth trading Q.

QUOTE (striker @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 10:51 AM) here is another good one. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/12/16/13..._source=twitter Wow, people overvalue prospects. I don't like that that article doesn't take into account a very important economic concept while using the surplus value concept. This guy puts ZERO discount for risk on the Astros prospects. There should be a significant discount for risk on any prospect, at least 30%.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 09:24 AM) Yes, it is the .200 iso as a 19 year old. Edit: That plays shortstop He won't stay at SS in this organization, though. I'd be looking at him as a future 2B or 3B, depending on where they want Moncada.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 09:23 AM) What's wrong with a Rodon-esque pitcher? His talent is absurd. I'd be for it if the pitcher is legitimately that good, and not just the best pitcher available. That said, with the talent that is in the system now, if they see a position player and pitcher as having pretty much equal value, I'd want the position player over the pitcher. With Q, Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Fulmer, Hansen, Dunning, and Adams, the White Sox have a lot of arms with high upside as starters at almost every level of the minors. In comparison, the hitting pool is very weak. Anderson, Moncada, Collins, Basabe, Call, Fisher are really about the only ones that excite me at the moment. Hopefully trades will net more hitters to become excited about, but I'd also like to see another bat or two who look like they could develop into franchise cornerstones.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 11:25 PM) Although I like the Astros top end package, getting Rodgers would be bigger than Tucker/Martes combined. Also, you can't honestly think that David Robertson is worth more than Andrew Miller, right? Robertson is coming off a down year with a much higher walk rate than his career average. Andrew Miller is one of the best pen arms in the game... Robertson doesn't even come close to that. I don't get the Rodgers hype, other than that he was drafted 3rd overall in 2015. He's not tearing the cover off the ball, and his K rate is high, though not alarmingly high, but with a mediocre BB rate. Is it the power? I guess a .200 ISO while more than 2 years younger than league average is impressive, but that still was done at low A ball. I'd rather take a chance on Reed rebounding, Stubbs's high walk, low K, reasonable power bat that played well at high A and AA against age appropriate competition at the premium defensive position, as well as the potential of Tucker and Martes rather than putting most of the value gotten back for Q into Brendan Rogers. I'll admit that the top end talent in the Rockies deal is better, and if they were willing to add Tapia, even if it meant Freeland became a different, less attractive piece, I'd probably like their deal more. As for Robertson, I'm not saying he's more valuable than either of the aforementioned players, but one netted 2 Top 100 prospects in all of baseball, with one being Top 20, and the other netted what may now be a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball, and both netted 4 total players. That's why I think Robertson is worth more than the proposed Nationals deal. Even being worth slightly less than them, he's worth more than that package.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 10:49 PM) The Colorado deal is about right minus a 4th prospect & the Nats package seems a bit of an overpay for Robertson. I'd rather deal with Houston if that's the best they can offer, unless they add a very worthwhile fourth player. Reed/Tucker/Martes/Stubbs is still my preferred package. Also, if Andrew Miller, who isn't even a closer, can net Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, and more, and Aroldis Chapman can net Gleyber Torres as part of a four player package, then Robertson is worth more than that.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 06:29 PM) Bleacher report suggested two deals for the sox Quintana to the Rockies for Rodgers, Hoffman and freeland Robertson to the nationals for Stephenson and severino Thoughts? Both are light.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 10:18 AM) Also really didn't think about having a top 5 pick versus 10-15th pick. Also a good point and why I'm not GM. However I'm not sure how much correspondence there is between a top 5 pick becoming a star versus a mid round pick being a star... If you look the guys we traded for you have Kopech who was a sandwich pick and a buncha Latin players which were signed for pennies (OR A s*** ton in Moncada). You look at the Cards and such and they didn't need top 5 picks. I think you need a competent staff making good picks consistently from rounds 2-10 that can be serviceable MLB players and then hitting on a few stars via international and 1st round picks. The higher picks increase the probability that the player they're getting is going to be a franchise altering impact player. 21 teams (including the White Sox) regret passing on Mike Trout, but obviously very few people saw Trout becoming what he is today, or he would've been drafted 1-1 and the Washington Nationals would have far and away the best team in baseball right now. Ultimately it's still about how the team scouts and develops, but having a high pick makes their job easier.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 09:46 AM) So from time to time I think about another way to put together this team in 2017 and I get to thinking, maybe we can do a teardown while maintaining the ability to win. My thought process behind it? It may allow us to have more leverage on Quintana and Robertson, etc. while maybe not looking like hot garbage next year. Here's just an idea, and it was kind of ruined with the Wellington Castillo pick up by the O's -- but: Let's sign: Josh Hamilton to a 1 year deal for like $1-2mm - way I see it? He's getting Minor league interest. He's a roll of the dice like Rollins. You probably end up cutting him - but let's say he has a mini revival and hits .250 with 15 homers by the deadline? You can turn that into a low level prospect lottery ticket possibly. Jose Bautista to a 2 year deal for like $30mm. His market is very small right now and all signs point back to Toronto. There are rumors about a 3 year deal with a 1 year opt-out. Maybe going high on price for 2 years is worth the risk. We have the money and if he reverts back to his younger numbers you can have a masher in your lineup that you can flip. We have the luxury of taking a risk. A team fighting for the playoffs can't sign a Joey Bats and if he flops eat that. With only a two year contract, and if performing, he could get you a nice haul - probably similar to whatever Beltran got. If he fails? Who cares. We have almost no salary. Wellington Castillo: Obviously can't do that anymore. An OF type: Colby Rasmus/Ben Revere - to one year deals. Both are acceptable. Or another similar type. Again same thinking, they can help us be competitive and add something to the team and can be flipped down the stretch. Not like they'll get much back in a haul, but both have played well in the past. Justin Morenau - again same. He didn't do badly last year. Very meh. But can get him at $1-2mm probably. Worth it. Pitching - Rubby De La Rosa - Coop type of fix guy. He does have some good stuff and can get strikeouts. Over the years I've had him on my fantasy team and he'll mow down teams for 3-4 starts at a time and then get shelled the next 2. Very up and down. Maybe something Coop can see and fix. Those type of pitchers can be so valuable ala Rich Hill if they ever figure it out. Jake Peavy: This is more cause I like the guy. But also I wouldn't mind him in the clubhouse talking to the younger guys in Lopez and Kopech (Spring Training) and Giolito, Rodon, Fulmer, etc. Now that's a lot of guys and obviously we wont get them all, so I'll pick out a few and put together a lineup: CF- Revere LF - Melky 1B - Abreu DH - Joey Bats/Morneau/Hamilton (obviously if this is the latter two you move them down in the lineup) 3B - Frazier 2B - Moncada SS - Anderson RF - Rasmus C - Warm Body Out of all those guys -- every one can be on a 1-2 year deal except Abreu/Moncada/Anderson and those guys are who I want to stick around. Joey Bats is the most aggressive signing and riskiest but a middle lineup like Abreu/Bautista/Frazier mashes. Then pitching: Quintana Rodon Gonzalez Holland De La Rosa Again more pitchers mentioned than we have space for. Probably cut out Peavy. Move Shields to long relief and #6. Undoubtedly someone gets hurt. You still have Jones and Robertson. It's actually maybe a competitive team in the first half and you can still tear down at any given point this year. Your bench has Lawrie and Tilson and Saladino. You have a very capable OF with Revere and Rasmus chasing balls down. You have infield depth and versatility. A few lotto tickets in the pithcing rotation.... I mean, stuck in Sox mediocrity, but could be an 85 win team and doesn't stop you from tearing down at any point. I know I'll get roasted for this post, just devil's advocate. you are signing guys with previous upside to short term deals that you can flip and yet remain competitive keeping somewhat of an upperhand on the trade market. I, for one, don't want another "squint really hard and you can see 85 wins" type of team. That's just going to keep them in that 70-80 win range that usually results in a low top 10-high teens draft pick. The White Sox need to get top 5 picks in the next two drafts, in which they will hopefully be able to draft college position players like Frank Thomas and Robin Ventura.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 11:45 AM) $8 million isn't a lot to this team. Plus, if he reaches the $8 million, he would probably be considered a steal knowing that he reached whatever the incentives are. Plus if he pitches that well, he's likely on another team by the end of August.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 11:43 AM) Evan Grant reports that Holland can earn up to $8MM if he maxes out his incentives. At which point the Sox are likely only paying $5MM of it anyway.

I'm already actively doing so and the season hasn't even started yet. I want them to be as bad as possible to get the best player possible to add to the core of the franchise for the compete window, which could be as early as 2019 depending in part on what the team gets out of the next two drafts. I'm hoping the White Sox get the #1 pick and the best player is a college hitter, such as Seth Beer who many here have talked about. That would accelerate this process greatly IMO.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 09:31 AM) I wonder if it takes a third team to get a deal done with the Astros for Q. Not if they're willing to part with Reed and Stubbs along with Martes and Tucker.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 09:30 AM) I want Carlos Correa. Nothing less than Altuve, Correa, and Bregman for Q!