JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Wow, Kopech turning into a dominant closer would be HUGE for his trade value. Fingers crossed this continues..

4.1 scoreless innings for Leasure this season so far. Stud

I really like Leasure. Still can’t believe they got him and Nastrini for Lynn and Kelly last July lol

No way I’m locking up Soroka for $10M AAV. 5th starters can be found via free agency for that type of money on single year commitments.

Give me the player with more cheap control over the player with less control 10/10 times. You and others have stated he’s basically useless for a contending team this season because he won’t pitch in August/september. How does his value increase in the offseason compared to July? If anything, his value remains the same unless you are presuming values of starting pitchers increase in the offseason compared to the trade deadline. And again, I don’t think that’s true based on what we’ve seen with others in the recent past.

I just don’t see how he’d look more attractive in the offseason compared to July. If we are assuming he’s hitting his innings limit in July and pitches very little to not at all the rest of this season, he isn’t continuing to build trade value in august and September but he is gaining additional service time thereby reducing the acquiring team’s control over him. Are you saying that starting pitching is valued more highly in the offseason versus the trade deadline? I thought we already went thru this with Cease and I don’t think that theory played out to be true.

If he’s at 100 innings in July, you don’t think a team can manage his innings over the final two months and have him start 1 or more games in the postseason? Why is 100 innings the magical number?

I think Steven Wilson will have more trade value than Kopech. I’m thinking they could get a 40/45 FV prospect for him in a few months.

So they’re going to shut him down in early July? That would be surprising.

What’s his innings limit? 100? 120? 150?

Why would he have more value in the offseason than in July? Presumably, he won’t throw a ton of innings in August/September so it’s not like he will be building his value further in those months. There will be far less pitching available in July than there will be in the offseason. We already went thru this with Cease and next offseason has even more available quality free agent starting pitching than this past offseason.

I think it would require a team like the Dodgers to be involved since they are a team that thinks outside the box. They’d probably be the best team to manage his innings until October and then can use him as an opener in the 3rd or 4th slot in the playoffs. I know they will have some starting pitchers returning from injury later this year but I’m not sure how they feel comfortable with that rotation. A lot of question marks still.

I’ve asked this question in a few other threads but thought it deserved it’s own. What are your guesses on the trade value of Sox starting pitchers as we approach the trade deadline? Of course this assumes good health, which is a big assumption for any pitcher these days, but for the sake of discussion let’s assume that. Here are my guesses: Crochet - one 55 FV prospect + two 45/50 FV prospects Crochet’s trade value might be the biggest mystery of all as I could easily see him returning a Cease type package given his young age, incredible stuff, and cheap team control thru 2026. There are obvious risks though, primarily his health, but if he maintains his current dominant form and stays healthy the sky is the limit. I can see a team like the Dodgers being very interested in Crochet this July. Fedde - one 45/50 FV prospect + a flier prospect So far, Fedde’s new and improved repertoire has translated from KBO to MLB. It’s still very early but if he maintains a mid 3’s ERA into July I think a 2023 Lorenzen type return for him is reasonable. I can see a team like the Orioles being interested because I think their rotation will need outside reinforcements this summer but they’re too stingy to pursue high end pitching and unload any of their top prospects. Soroka - a couple flier prospects He isn’t the pitcher he once was due to injury but he has value as a 5th starter and/or long relief arm especially for the cost (both in dollars and prospect value for acquiring team) Flexen / Clevinger - no trade value (if lucky, traded for cash considerations) What are your thoughts?

I thought that only applied to the 2025 draft and then it resets again no?

Oh man, Fedde is going to be in big demand come July. Crochet too, assuming he stays healthy.

True but they were still in the same position come October as this team will be but had a lot more talent. Big missed opportunity in my mind and hence the extreme frustration. I had no expectations coming into this season so whether it’s 40 wins or 60 wins nothing changes in my mind, it’s just a bad team.

2005 was easily the best for me. They didn’t hit nearly as well as they did in 2006 but they were such a well rounded team. Watching our pitching get smacked around in 2006, particularly in the second half of the season, was unwatchable for me. Again, expectations were a big part of that but I’ve never been more frustrated as a Sox fan as I was then.

Sox had that in 2006 and that was probably my most frustrating and disappointing season as a Sox fan. Obviously, the expectations were much higher than now and that was a big factor but it was so damn frustrating to see that team hit the s%*# out of the ball and still miss the playoffs.

For sure. It’s frustrating but so is losing 10-7 every game because you can’t pitch or play defense. If I’m going to lose a ton of games I’d rather lose them low scoring because like you said the games are super quick at least.

Banks doing his best Crochet impersonation

That’s why I am curious to hear what others think of his value because there is no real example to follow in a trade like this. Very unique. The team acquiring him is getting a dominant lefty reliever for the rest of this season if they impose an innings limit and then a very cheap potential ace for two more seasons. Seems like that should be worth a lot but I’m not sure given his volatile history to this point.

Worst case scenario for the rest of this year, wouldn’t a dominant postseason reliever with the ability to throw multiple innings be a huge asset even for a contender this season still? And then of course he’s under super cheap control for two more seasons after this year.

I disagree. Sox fans turn out when the team is winning and don’t show when the team is losing. Keeping Crochet on a 110 loss team isn’t going to change a thing. This should be a complete non-factor in the decision to trade him or not this summer.

If the Sox do put Crochet on the trading block in June/July, what type of return are they realistically looking at if he maintains his current production? Something slightly less than what Cease returned? He currently has top 15 AL cy young odds per draftkings and has been rising very fast.

Yep. I’ve got nothing positive to say on the position player side other than the defense looked much improved until today.