witesoxfan

QUOTE (LDF @ Oct 21, 2014 -> 11:20 AM) when he was healthy, he gave his best for the sox. now he is hurt, but stat was not that bad. posters are using his salary for getting rid of him or he is not worth that salary. where is all the backing that he should be getting. he was being paid for his success. the union made sure that a player should not be punish if he is hurt. No, his stats were bad. 10 years ago, a 4.77 ERA (and the corresponding FIP and xFIP and any other metric you'd like to use) were slightly below league average. The MLB average ERA for starting pitchers this year was 3.82. John Danks was almost a full run worse than that. He was a 5th starter whose production could just as easily be replaced by someone like Scott Carroll.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Oct 19, 2014 -> 08:22 AM) Ideally, the Sox farm system would permanently reside in that 1-5 range; that would mean the Sox are drafting well and developing well. 1-5 is better than 10-15. That won't happen. Teams in the 1-5 range are stockpiling assets to try and fill holes at the MLB level through a numbers game. They aren't trading those away. Teams who are competitive on a regular basis will make decisions on those prospects prematurely so they can add to other holes. Yes, ideally they'd have essentially a monopoly on all of the prospects and they'd be able to just plug and play as needed, but we can't do that as we do in video games.

QUOTE (Downtown518 @ Oct 21, 2014 -> 08:13 AM) Is Matt Davidson Destined to be a Bust? Nice to actually see some comparisons. No, it does not look good, but there's no need to get rid of him and he's entering what is a make or break year for him.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 20, 2014 -> 12:19 PM) Just my opinion but I feel Ravelo is being way under rated considering his 2014 season, he's just 22 and going to start 2015 at Charlotte. If he played a competent 3B, I don't think you'd see anyone disagreeing. Hell, I think you can say the same thing for LF or RF. And it's not to say that he can't be a starting player at the MLB level with his current tools. The problem, from my perspective, is that he's limited almost entirely to 1B and for a 1B prospect to rise high, they have to have very high offensive ceilings (think Gallo, even if he's still at 3B) at the very minimum. I really, really like Ravelo and think he will hit enough to make it to the majors and be a significant contributor, but if he doesn't and can't play any other positions, he's essentially late career Paul Konerko with no positional versatility, which usually means he's a AAAA player.

QUOTE (woods of ypres @ Oct 19, 2014 -> 11:29 PM) I *think* I have a general understanding of what IN/FB%, GB/FB%, and IFFB% mean, but the point of these is that the higher they go up the worse, right? I would assume that more infield flies, more ground balls, and less fly balls leaving the infield are a sign of losing power and strength, no? Anyone want to confirm/deny/re-teach me? Thank you. For the most part, yes, unless there was some underlying cause. If there were an injury that affected a player's talent level but did not ultimately change a player's talent level, you can see certain traits like that "pop up" (pun intended ). However, it also depends on the type of player. For a player as fast as Adam Eaton, I'd rather not see him trying to hit the ball in the air because you will have better batting averages on ground balls versus fly balls, but hits via fly balls will go for more bases. Obviously infield fly balls are always bad for hitters and always good for pitchers, but GB/FB% will depend on the context and the player you're looking at.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 20, 2014 -> 06:53 PM) Also, since everyone loves when I cherry pick....Throw out his 6 truly dreadful starts and he had a 3.18 ERA for 26 starts (164 innings)....Call those innings luck if you must, but as a 4th/5th starter I'll take a guy who gets shelled once a month if he's also keeping us in games the other 4-5. His contract does change things a bit, so with that said I'm cool with trading him for a decent offer. Don't think we need to just dump him or that trading him should be a priority though. Well then let's look at his worst 26 starts too. 5.78 ERA 1.56 WHIP 1.8 K/BB 3.5 BB/9 6.2 K/9 152.2 IP Also, the idea that a "quality start" is 6 IP and 3 ER is a bit crazy anymore considering the league ERA was 3.74 and the league ERA for starting pitchers was 3.82. You'd think that an ERA of 4.50 is no longer a "quality start" given that it's well above the league average ERA. I would say a quality start anymore is 7 IP and 3 ER or 6 IP of 2 ER.

QUOTE (BaconOnAStick @ Oct 17, 2014 -> 11:36 AM) It's tough to assume Rodon breaks camp in the White Sox rotation. Give him the Sale trearment, let him work a year in the pen to get himself together then once he's ready put him in the rotation. I don't care about service time, I care about making him a good pitcher for us. As for Montas, he's headed to the pen anyways so why not get him in a leverage role now? I disagree with all of this post and I do not think there is very good logic behind it.

The hardest thing for us to comprehend about defense at this point is just how intangible it really is. A guy who hits 40 homers a year is something we can see and count and say "this guy absolutely does this." We can see it leave the yard. With defense, it's harder for us (but getting better and more accessible all the time) to say "that is a great defensive play that not many make" versus "WOW HE DOVE WHAT A REACTION." I think as we learn to grasp the importance and how to value defense more and more as time goes on, we will see guys rewarded appropriately.

Both are Wild Card teams too.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 17, 2014 -> 10:12 AM) But hand-eye coordination is a CRITICAL component and should be considered more of a tool than a skill. If reports of his shortcomings are similar to those of Viciedo, those shortcomings act as the best proxy we have in assuming he has the same types of "tool" issues, including but not limited to hand-eye coordination. I mean, at the end of the day, who knows? But there seems to be big bust potential if he's like Viciedo, because Viciedo is a bust. I agree, but much of it depends on how he works out. It's hard to see how he's doing without visual proof.

Sounding like Viciedo from the reports we have is a GOOD thing. Viciedo is an incredibly talented hitter - quick wrists, big power, and great plate coverage. He struggles recognizing pitches and, from what I can tell, with his hand-eye coordination. He's shown flashes in the past where he's willing to work the count and he absolutely tears it up, but those are so few and far in between that it's hard to count on anything but a free swinging strike out machine. If you get a guy with Viciedo's talent at the plate or even a level below that but who is capable of recognizing pitches and/or having good hand-eye coordination, you have a fantastic hitter.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 11:00 PM) Because if things go right, it will be a lot more than a "little more". And this team likely isn't going to compete for the division anyway, so losing 12-15 starts to a lesser pitcher probably won't matter much to this team anyway. But this team easily could compete for a division crown. You improve 3-4 spots on the team, improve the bullpen in general, and you could easily be talking about a 12+ win jump. With an estimated free agent value of $11 mill (the average of what Quintana qualifies for from the White Sox for his first 2 years of free agency), the White Sox have Quintana set up as 30%/49%/63%/80%, which even favors the player a little bit compared to the typical 40/60/80. Even if you assume Rodon's free agent value will be $15 mill, you're looking at this: Super 2: 0.5/0.5/4.5/7.5/9.5/12 = $34.5 Non S2: 0.5/0.5/0.5/6.0/9.0/12 = $28.5 $6 million is, in the long run, a very minimal amount extra

QUOTE (LDF @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 10:49 PM) I wouldn't be surprise if they start experimenting with him in the outfield. with his errors, I was wondering 3b. Alcides Escobar had fielding percentages in the .930s and .940s consistently throughout the low minors and made 41 errors as an 18 year old. Young kids are not refined and will make mistakes like that, which is why they play in the minors for 2-5 years. Not to mention that Anderson missed time this year due to a broken hand, which is a double whammy for getting back into it. As of this moment, he's a SS prospect and there's no reason to believe he'll be anything else.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 04:32 PM) I wouldn't be against myself. I like the sound of a 3/39 and if necessary and 4th year mutual option with some kind of buy out. From what I've seen, the best options to attach to the end of a deal are vesting options with a buyout if those certain requirements (99% of the time they're playing time requirements with the occasional "if not on the DL" also included) are met. 3 year, $42 million deal, breaking down as follows '15: $12 mill '16: $13 mill '17: $14 mill '18: $15 mill (option) - option vests with 1100 PAs between '16 and '17 or (500/550) in '17, otherwise, $3 mill team buyout It brings it up to a max value of 4/$54, which is still a pretty penny. Those numbers can be fudged with a little bit, but in today's environment, for a player that is not one dimensional, it's a fairly good contract for both player and team. Hell, maybe they can even front load it while the payroll is low so as to allow for more flexibility later on in his contract.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 04:27 PM) Signings: 2B Jose Fernandez 6 years / $70M SP Justin Masterson 1year / $7M 2nd year $12M option RP Franklin Morales - 3/$14M million LF Gerardo Parra 1/$4M 2nd year $6M option Trades: Sox acquire IF Pedro Alvarez for Marcus Semien and Chris Beck Sox trade 2B Micah Johnson to the BJ's for RP Brett Cecil and SP Roberto Osuna Sox trade 2B Carlos Sanchez to the Yankees for Jose A Ramirez and Jorge Mateo Release/Let Go RP Ronald Belisario RP Matt Lindstrom SP Felipe Paulino 1B Paul Konerko (Retirement) DFA RP Frank De Los Santos RP Taylor Thompson Line Up CF Adam Eaton SS Alexei Ramirez 2B Jose Fernandez 1B Jose Abreu DH Pedro Alvarez RF Avisail Garcia 3B Conor Gillaspie/Davidson C Tyler Flowers LF Gerardo Parra/Viciedo Rotation SP Chris Sale SP Jose Quintana SP Hector Noesi SP John Danks SP Justin Masterson/Erik Johnson Bullpen RP Erik Surkamp (long relief) RP Jake Petricka RP Zach Putnam RP Jose A Ramirez/Raul Fernandez RP Brett Cecil RP Franklin Morales RP Daniel Webb Bench C Josh Phegley UTIL Tyler Saladino OF Viciedo/Parra DH/3B Matt Davidson I'm an admitted Marcus Semien homer, but Semien and Beck for Alvarez is a vast overpay.

Markakis isn't a bad fielder. His range is starting to decline a little bit, but he's steady out in RF. He is a guy I'd be on board with bringing in. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $13-15 mill a year for 3-4 years.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 03:11 PM) I still don't get why people are so caught up in Super 2 dates. So you have to pay a little more in year 3. Big deal. Thank you

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:35 PM) I just worry about Veal part 2, although i do recognize that bullpen arms(and performances) are not predictable year to year. It would be nice to have a few LOOGYs come out of the minors, but i would like to see some more competition next spring In my dream for next season, Surkamp starts throwing a bit harder working and conditioning solely as a reliever this offseason because he won't have to be stretched out as far. He was solid at his 89-92 but his mistakes were still crushed. If he gets it up to 94 or 95, those mistakes will be punished less often.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:17 PM) Fielding percentage is a horrendous metric to evaluate defense. Using advanced defensive metrics, the Sox this past year, ranked 28th in team defense (Astros / Indians were worse) with our defense costing us 48 runs. The Royals defense ranked 1st and saved 74.8 runs. This is the most jaw dropping post I have ever seen under this username and I absolutely love it because it's 100% correct.

QUOTE (bear_brian @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:12 PM) Our fielding percentage and the Royals was almost identical. We scored more runs than they did, hit many more homers; they hit for a higher average and stole many more bases. On the surface the difference was indeed pitching - their team ERA was 3.69. ours was 4.09. That is over half a run a game difference. So, one way to look at getting better is to indeed fix the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. No secret, huh!? QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:16 PM) This tells me official scorers are indeed awful. The eye test will tell you Sox defense is blah; Royals defense is excellent. Fielding percentage means nothing and people should stop using that as a judgment of defense. It has value in that it can tell you a guy is [probably] making too many errors, but a fielding percentage of 1.000 tells you nothing other than that a guy is not making errors on the balls he gets to. For instance, if you have a blob play SS who can only get to balls hit right at him, but he fields everything hit to him, he's going to have a fielding percentage of 1.000. Is a guy who has absolutely no range to his front, back, left, or right actually a good defender?

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 12:42 PM) Jon Heyman tweeted that Pittsburgh will give Martin a QO. That's somewhat surprising. I actually don't think it is at all. They're still going to try and re-sign him, but if they can't, he will get a lucrative multi-year deal elsewhere. This isn't quite the AJ Burnett situation from last year where they were unsure if he'd sign elsewhere and they didn't want to be on the hook for $14 mill if he chose to sign with them.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 11:19 AM) That's what we tried in 07 and look how that turned out. lol It's hit and miss, like most bullpens are. Except they kept getting guys who could throw 100 MPH and discarded those who didn't work or who fell apart.

QUOTE (flavum @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 11:02 AM) Jeff Banister is the Rangers manager. Career OPS+ of 469. Not bad. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/banisje01.shtml Highest career average of all time.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 11:02 AM) If Melky is easily worth $15 a year what is V Mart worth? $20M a year? More? He put up a 166 this year and his career average is right around 125. Melky is a good player, but I think signing him to a $15M a year contract is forcing a signing just because we have a hole to fill. I'd much rather wait and find the right OF, not the 1st one available. I think Victor Martinez could easily get $20 mill per year and it would likely be more than that if he weren't 36. I don't know that he necessarily will sign for $20 mill per year because he may prefer the overall payday of a 3 year contract at $17 mill per year instead of 1 year at $20 million. I'm not advocating the move...I don't necessarily care for Melky Cabrera...just saying that I wouldn't be terribly upset signing him to a 3 year, $45 million contract.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 10:40 AM) And you're not breaking up the rotation if the team is near 1st place I will disagree with this, especially if he appears to be an upgrade on any given pitcher. And this is flawed thinking. If Sale, Quintana, Noesi, and RHFA are pitching very well, and Danks (who, for this exercise, I am assuming is with the team and in the rotation) is pitching poorly, and Rodon represents a significant upgrade to the point where it could mean a division crown and golfing, why wouldn't you make that upgrade?