chw42

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 10:58 PM) Good article overall, and the comp to Masterson is one of the lesser points that gets discussed in the Sale closer vs. starter debates, yet it's a solid one. Sale flies open to right-handed hitters and gives them the opportunity to see the ball longer, which means that Sale as a starter is really going to have to develop that changeup if he's going to be successful facing RH hitters three times per game or so. As a closer Sale can use the change to keep hitters honest, but as a starter it'll be his main weapon, especially when he's working in the low-90's as opposed to the mid to upper-90's as would be the case out of the rotation. Same thing goes with Sale's slider vs. LH, it's going to be something he'll have to rely on a lot more and isn't going to appear nearly as devastating when he has to throw it for a strike in a hitters count following a FB that is 4-5mph slower than what we see out of the pen. Sale's best weapons are blazing FB, deception, and the ability to throw 3 pitches, but putting him out there as a starter takes away some of that blaze off the FB, minimizes that deception given repeat ABs, and forces him to throw his offspeed stuff for strikes more often. Also, in closing situations the game is on the line, and hitters often get in "swing for the fences" mode which allows someone like Sale to go out there and, more often than normal, get ahead of a hitter with a couple decent-to-bad sliders because the guy at the plate is sitting on the FB. But it seems like in earlier parts of the game hitters are more patient, and may wait for the pitcher to get a strike or two over before getting serious. And then you have the durability/mechanical concerns. The only thing I disagree with is any kind of implication that players are worth their WAR and that Sale as a closer is basically Bronson Arroyo. To me that's just like comparing the OPS of a corner OF with the OPS of a SS. That is nuts. Sale as a closer is horrible sight for hitter. His job is to kill rallies, send people home, and do it all year long whether in the regular season or in the playoffs, big game vs. a division rival or against the lowly Royals. Arroyo's job OTOH is to do a decent job eating innings over the course of a 162-game season, helping his team get to the playoffs and then hopefully (for his team's sake) hiding out at the back of the playoff rotation. There are far more Bronson Arroyo types in baseball than Chris Sale types. BTW I don't have a major problem with Sale as a starter even though I'd much rather see him as a closer. I just see it an unnecessary move that could easily backfire. And I don't see his ceiling as a starter nearly as high as it seems most of the people here do. I've seen a couple times at least where people have said he'd be at or above Danks' level. I completely disagree with that. There have been attempts at trying to improve reliever WAR by using leverage index. That way, the closer, or anyone who is in an important role, usually ends up getting more credit for his contributions. But right now, it's just best to realize that it's imperfect at this point.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 09:57 PM) Then batting runs = ((.385-.325)/1.21)*660 = 32.7. But you have 5 less runs. Park adjustment. I'm using an adjusted wOBA. Adjusted wOBA = .385 * sqrt(100/((105 + 100)/2)) = .380 Where 105 is the Cell's park factor. I added 100 and divided by 2 so that it would have the Cell's effect halved on the actual numbers. I'm not exactly sure how FanGraphs does park adjustments, but I imagine it's close to what I have up there. Edit: I see what I missed. I forgot to square root part in the application I wrote. Now that I put that back in there, it has Dunn at around 30 runs. So he's definitely worth 3.5 wins.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 09:10 PM) I'm okay with the wOBA of .385. But I think if you're using a figure higher than James' prediction, it might be considered optimistic. And the batting runs in your calculation seem low considering your assumptions. What is your wOBA scale? 1.21. That's the 5 year average with more being weighted towards the recent years. The 3 year average is 1.23, but the average wOBA is .324 and wOBA has much, much more impact on the batting runs than the scale does. .385 is his career average. He is 32 and he might be in some decline, but he's moving from a mediocre hitter's park to a great hitter's park. What's interesting is that if you take his wOBA down to .380, his WAR is around 3.1-3.2.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 07:03 PM) Positional adjustments do not take offense statistics into account, only defense. The adjustments were arrived at after the SABR community analyzed loads of stats on players who had played multiple positions. This gave them an idea on exactly how difficult each position was to play in relation to another. Example, because catcher is such a difficult position to play, guys who can fit there have an inherent value which other players do not provide. So they get over a 10 run bump (for a full season) in positional adjustment. Because DH requires zero defensive ability, the positional adjustment takes nearly 20 runs away from them. I think 3.5 WAR is a good estimate for Dunn. Say Dunn gets 660 PAs at DH and puts up a .385 wOBA, both are near his career average. Here's how that breaks down for the components of WAR using a league average wOBA of .325 and assuming the league average runs/game is 4.5. Batting - 27.8 Fielding - 0 Replacement - 22 Positional - (-16.6) RAR - 33.2 Runs/Win - (4.5 + 2) * 1.5 = 9.75 WAR - 3.41

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 05:27 PM) He's due over 20 million dollars the next two years. That makes me want to barf. It's $17 million. He's being paid at fair market value for his production. If you get to dump Teahen in the deal and get a cost controlled player back in Francisco, it's not THAT bad. I still wouldn't do it though.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 05:16 PM) Ibanez is basically CQ except he's over a decade older. He's been god awful in every aspect of baseball since the all-star break of 2009. Joe Blanton, well, sucks. He's a number 5 starter getting paid like he's a number 2 or 3 starter. Gross. I'd love to ditch Teahen. But not for that package. Joe Blanton's a 2.5 win starter. If you adjust him to the AL he's probably a 2 win pitcher. That's average, not terrible.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 04:14 PM) Pretty embarrassing considering Lefeavor is no more. And Starks also looks pretty damn good. He's easily the best back on GB right now.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 04:40 PM) The Orioles have had an underrated offseason. Between Reynolds, Lee, Hardy, and Uehara, that's conservatively 9 wins worth of additions. Which is more than the White Sox added for much less money (they obviously had more spots to address, though). Even with their pitiful rotation, I think they'll be very close to a .500 team in 2011. Are you sure that's more than what the Sox added? You can count on at least 6 wins between Konerko and Dunn. A.J. is two wins because he's a catcher and that's like automatic. Crain and Ohman together is worth a win. I like the Orioles' off-season too. I made a list of the best off-seasons on my blog before the year ended. I used a system (albeit kinda flawed) and my opinion to put it together. I had the Orioles as 11th, but that was before they got Lee. With Lee, I'd say they crack the top 10, but probably aren't there with the Sox.

Something like Ben Francisco + Blanton for Quentin + Teahen would make more sense.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 04:23 PM) Should the Philadelphia Phillies trade Joe Blanton and Raul Ibanez to the Chicago White Sox for Carlos Quentin? This is a topic for the MLB Networks Hot Stove program. My big thing is that I have no idea how the Sox could take on that much money, and what we would do with another starter. We're in no position to take on more salary. Having Blanton would be nice, but his talents will be wasted when Peavy's back.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 03:09 PM) I really want Andruw Jones back. A 2 WAR player off the bench would be real nice. Our bench currently comprises of at least 3 possible replacement level players in Teahen, Lillibridge, and De Aza. Vizquel's not too far away from that mark since he can't hit all that well.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 02:32 PM) Can't believe I will say this, but... I don't know that you will find a substantially better 4th OF than Lillibridge or De Aza. Because if you did, they wouldn't be a 4th OF, they'd be starting somewhere. I'm not a fan of spending big money on a backup OF unless you plan some sort of rotation. I could see De Aza as a 4th outfielder, but Lillibridge's bat is about as bad as you can get. If De Aza's healthy and puts up a .320 wOBA, I would be okay with him as a 4th OFer.

QUOTE (knightni @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 01:52 PM) Excellent job, Joe! Whatever happened to Jhonny Nunez? 5 ERA in AAA last year I think.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 01:28 PM) An 8 foot birthday cake with a crown on it? God I hate that man. I take back my semi-apology post. Talk about a waste of money.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 12:34 PM) Alright, what exactly is happening in your avatar? I see Beltre overreacting to Martinez touching his hair, but what is going on with Pedroia? http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/...touch-his-head/ That's Scutaro, not Pedroia.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 12:30 PM) Heyman has Rays looking at Thome and Vlad as well, obviously won't start some sort of crazy bidding war, but gives them another option of where to sign Just keep both of those guys away from the Twins and we'll be fine.

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 10:03 PM) Within reason, what the hell did you want them to do that they didn't do? J4L's expectations are higher than most users'. I don't think that's a huge issue. I wouldn't give the off-season an A+ either. I think out of all the teams in baseball, the Sox might have had the 4th or 5th best off-season in terms of acquiring talent and spending responsibly and efficiently. I'd rate teams like the Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox, and the A's ahead of our off-season right now. I'd even consider the Tigers since they just added Penny. As it stands, I'd give The Sox FO an A- with room to improve to an A if they bring in a good 4th OFer.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 11:46 AM) The State Farm guy was a gay latino masseuse on an episode of House. I remember that episode. Twas weird.

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 09:57 AM) I might have agreed with you 5 years ago, but reliable 40 HR guys don't grow on trees anymore. Offense is taking a dip like crazy right now. League average wOBA dropped all the way down from .328 to .321 last year. OPS dropped even more. It could be that last year was an outlier, but the fact of the matter is that offense is declining sharply in baseball.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 09:02 AM) Tigers sign Brad Penny, reportedly $3mil base, with $3mil incentives. Not a bad guy to have as your #4/5 starter. That's a really good deal for them. Although Penny's shown before that he's nothing special in the AL.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 11:36 PM) They're going to give up a ton too. The key is C.J. Wilson. If he can come anywhere close to his 2010 season, that staff should be okay. Colby Lewis was not a fluke last year, that guy can pitch. Tommy Hunter is a serviceable guy. With the possibility of Feliz becoming a starter and the slight possibility that Webb might be healthy and effective, you have yourself a formidable staff. There's also Scott Feldman and Derek Holland who can end up being possible 5th starters. I think their pitching will be okay. Not as good as last year, but enough to keep them the favorites for the AL West. I really do like what the A's have done in the off-season though.

QUOTE (GoodAsGould @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 10:00 PM) This team really needs a SG though, I dont care if it costs us Taj and the Charlotte pick....bring in Mayo and this team can compete with anyone once Noah comes back. This team can be a championship contender with any kind of above average scoring SG. Any kind. Especially a guy like Mayo though, somebody we can hang onto for a while.

According to the Sun Times Joaquin Benoit = Matt Garza. In other news, Mike Tomlin will replace Omar Epps on House during bye weeks and the off-season.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 09:19 PM) That was just sick. I don't remember where the conversation was about Rose losing vertical, but I can safely say that it is BS. Stacey King keeps saying 40 inches.

QUOTE (Felix @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 09:13 PM) TS% of 58.6% He's getting to the line a lot I assume.