chw42

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 09:45 AM) It's still only 192 PA's, so it could easily be sample size. When it happens 3 years in a row, you gotta start believing it's a real trend. Alexei's BABIP is horrible in April, so it could be partially on luck, but since I don't know his batted ball rates in those months, I can't really comment on whether or not it's just bad luck.

CL Rivera SU Soriano SU Feliciano MR Robertson MR Chamberlain MR Logan (LOOGY) LR Mitre You could add Marte in there too. They have a lot of depth.

That Yankees bullpen sure looks good now.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 13, 2011 -> 12:40 PM) I can already see Kruk saying something stupid about how the Yankees had a great offseason because they didn't make any real changes. The Yankees probably had the worst off-season of all the big market teams. They overspent for a league average shortstop, overpaid a lot for their closer (even though I would say most of it is deserved), and their only real addition is Pedro Feliciano.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 13, 2011 -> 09:18 AM) I'd much rather see lbj getting dunked on by scal and Stacey king goes crazy like "oh no oh no u didnt scal!!! don't do the king like that!! WTF is the poster machine?!" That would be the best basketball moment of the year.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 13, 2011 -> 03:10 AM) "Instant Karma's gonna get you...gonna knock you right off your feet" I think Bron Bron's learned his lesson.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 10:47 PM) Lebron on his karma tweet. seems that this guy has no balls to own up to what comes out of his mouth. He's getting a lot of bad advice from his stupid friends.

Unfortunately, Jim Caple also wrote some article about how runs scored are one the most important individual stats in baseball in order to prove Derek Jeter wasn't bad last season. So there goes some of his credibility. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove09/...%26id%3d4848879

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 03:31 PM) "I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country." - Jim Caple from his latest article updating the team misery indexes. Put this quote in my sig. Trudat.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 03:11 PM) There's a reason Devin Aromashodu is on his third team, and it's because he just isn't very good. I hear it's about him not being able to fit into what the team wants him to do. He's probably just lazy. He is pretty talented.

QUOTE (WHITESOXRANDY @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 02:01 PM) Except that he'smaking more money than almost every player that created more runs than he did and they actually play a DEFENSIVE position! They play the whole game and help win games on defense and some can actually run and help their teams on the bases. They can bunt, hit and run etc. Way way overpaid for Dunn. You want Adam Dunn to bunt and hit and run? Seriously? Just for the sake of ending this horrible debate, let's look at the 2011 salaries of players ahead of Dunn in wRC+ from last season. And in order to make this fair, the player must be no longer arbitration eligible (6 or more years of service). Arbitration and pre-arb players don't count. This way, we can determine the value of a player better or like Dunn in the free agent market. Miguel Cabrera - $20 million Paul Konerko - $12 million Matt Holliday - $17 million (That's until 2016, then he gets deferred payments) Jayson Werth - $10 million (but he's getting $116 million the other 6 years of his deal) Aubrey Huff - $10 million Adrian Beltre - $14 million (then at least $76 million for the other 4 years) Carl Crawford - $14 million (and then $126 million for the other 6 years) The only guy who is much cheaper than Dunn is Huff. And that's understandable since he's older and he probably took a discount from the Giants. Everybody else is either at similar value or they're paid way more. That's also understandable, but you have to realize the market's value before you go rambling about how so and so isn't worth he's being paid.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 02:00 PM) Hey J4L, I think someone is about to pass you over as the resident whipping boy There's no point in arguing with you. Your arguments are fraught with terrible logic. At least J4L had logical reasons to look at things the way he did.

QUOTE (WHITESOXRANDY @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 01:57 PM) Go ahead and explain why Adam Dunn has never managed to finish in the 20 in NL MVP voting in his entire 10 year career ? How is it that the guy is so valuable but never happens to be even one the 20 best in the National League? Let's hear your excuses for that. In fact, you couldn't even find 1 star player that never did that. Go ahead - find one. A.J. Pierzynski once finished in the top 25 in MVP voting. Joe Cowley put him in as a joke vote. He had his voting rights revoked after that I think. Shouldn't that tell you how much of a joke the voting for the MVP is after maybe the first 5 candidates? It brings no relevance that he's never finished in the top 25 in MVP voting. He sucked at fielding, I wouldn't have put him in the top 20 either. But since he doesn't have to field now, most of his problems go away.

QUOTE (WHITESOXRANDY @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 01:50 PM) I think that some of you are confused about the sport. It's called "baseball " not " home run". In fact, a team can aactually lose a game 2-1 while still outhomering the opposition. Adam Dunn does so little on a baseball field. Any player that can play any defensive poistion adequately and provide respectable offense is worth far more than a DH. Incidentally, last year Dunn finished 23rd in runs created - right behind Kelly Johnson. Konerko finished 7th, Jayson Werth 11th, 2b Richie Weeks 12th, 2b Dan Uggla 16th (signed for less than Dunn) and Shin-Soo Choo was 18th. Dunn is okay for a DH. He just isn't much of a ballplayer at all and certainly won't be worth $ 56 mil. The only thing I've heard anyone say in his defense is "he can hit 35-40 homers". Well, I guess in that world Dave Kingman is the greatest player that ever lived. There's nothing wrong with being 22nd in wRC. In fact, his wRC+ would have been the highest of all DHs last season. You're paying fair market money for the best DH in the American League. There's nothing wrong with that.

QUOTE (WHITESOXRANDY @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 01:34 PM) Is he gonna knock in 35 homers a year for the last 10 years for the Sox this year? What does that have to do with anything? The point is the guy is NOT a big run producer. He's only a DH and there are clearly better hitters out there for less money - Jim Thome for one. Is there any doubt at all that the White Sox would win more games this year with Vlad in the DH spot than Dunn? Vlad is a professional HOF hitter. There will be no such thing as situational hitting with Dunn. I would like to know how many runs he drove in last year when the ball didn't leave the ballpark? I think that many Sox fans are going to be dissapointed after seeing how little Dunn really contributes to the team after watching him everyday. Jim Thome can't stay healthy. Vlad really can't either. Go look at his second half splits last year. Dunn is at least 4 years younger than both of those guys. He's been more consistent and healthier. There's a reason why Dunn's projected market value was $12 million per year when the other guys haven't even signed yet.

QUOTE (WHITESOXRANDY @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 01:26 PM) Run producer? I guess that you and I are talking about two different players. I'm talking Adam Dunn. I'm talking about a guy that HAS to hit 40 home runs to barely knock in 100 runs. That's what happens when he can't touch the ball 1 out of 3 trips to the plate and have a .250 average. You can't hardly drive in a run unless you hit it out of the park. And, 38 -40 homers is a lot but it isn't 45-55. For comparison's sake in the NL last year- Juan Uribe knocked in 85 and SS Troy Tulowittzki missed 30 games and knocked in 95. I guess that's why Dunn has never finished in the top 20 in the NL MVP voting even once in his career. I guess others don't think he's very valuable either. Maybe, that's why he's never been in a playoff game or even played on a team with a winning record. However, the Reds somehow got better as soon as he left. Hey, I'm not saying the guy is worthless but he's hardly a star or a great player and that's a big contract. Especially, when there are much better hitters still out there that the Sox could have saved a lot of money on the DH spot. Let's see Vlad Guerrero, a HOF hitter that just knocked in 115 last year(much more than Dunn ever did) and batted .300 again for about $ 5-6 mil. or the 200 K king for $ 56 mil ? You do realize Adam Dunn played for a team that scored a total of 655 runs last year right? That was good for 25th in all of baseball. The Nationals were also 22nd in OBP. It's not a mystery as to why he only knocked in 100 runs. If there's nobody to get on base in front of him, who does he have to knock in besides himself? RBI is one of the worst ways to measure a player's offensive ability. When most people on here say "run producer" they mean how many runs this guy bring with his OPS, his wOBA, or his wRC. Nobody's really talking about RBI.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 12:36 PM) Why should a man in the pictures below earn anything less than $33M in his career? The last pic looks photoshopped.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 11:54 AM) It's quite clear to me that the Rays want the draft picks. Otherwise signing Farnsworth over Balfour makes no sense at all. They've done well with them, so I don't question it whatsoever. BTW, there will be a new book out on the Rays' turnaround coming out in March. http://www.amazon.com/Extra-2-Street-Strat...l/dp/0345517652 I think this will be something like Moneyball vol. 2 in terms of the impact it might have on the general baseball population about advanced sabermetrics. Moneyball was a lot about basic sabermetric theory. This book might get a lot more advanced than that.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 11:06 AM) Olney reporting Kyle Farnsworth to the Rays. one-year, $3.25 million with an option, could be worth 2 yrs., $6 mil I'm sure Grant Balfour would not have gotten much more. The Rays know what they're doing though, so eh.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 09:54 PM) frank's 1994 is still looked at with awe even by non-Sox fans. It's kind of difficult to comprehend that a human being actually put up those numbers. Those are probably the best non-steroid numbers I've ever seen. Albert Pujols hasn't even pulled off a .497 wOBA yet.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 10:58 PM) Good article overall, and the comp to Masterson is one of the lesser points that gets discussed in the Sale closer vs. starter debates, yet it's a solid one. Sale flies open to right-handed hitters and gives them the opportunity to see the ball longer, which means that Sale as a starter is really going to have to develop that changeup if he's going to be successful facing RH hitters three times per game or so. As a closer Sale can use the change to keep hitters honest, but as a starter it'll be his main weapon, especially when he's working in the low-90's as opposed to the mid to upper-90's as would be the case out of the rotation. Same thing goes with Sale's slider vs. LH, it's going to be something he'll have to rely on a lot more and isn't going to appear nearly as devastating when he has to throw it for a strike in a hitters count following a FB that is 4-5mph slower than what we see out of the pen. Sale's best weapons are blazing FB, deception, and the ability to throw 3 pitches, but putting him out there as a starter takes away some of that blaze off the FB, minimizes that deception given repeat ABs, and forces him to throw his offspeed stuff for strikes more often. Also, in closing situations the game is on the line, and hitters often get in "swing for the fences" mode which allows someone like Sale to go out there and, more often than normal, get ahead of a hitter with a couple decent-to-bad sliders because the guy at the plate is sitting on the FB. But it seems like in earlier parts of the game hitters are more patient, and may wait for the pitcher to get a strike or two over before getting serious. And then you have the durability/mechanical concerns. The only thing I disagree with is any kind of implication that players are worth their WAR and that Sale as a closer is basically Bronson Arroyo. To me that's just like comparing the OPS of a corner OF with the OPS of a SS. That is nuts. Sale as a closer is horrible sight for hitter. His job is to kill rallies, send people home, and do it all year long whether in the regular season or in the playoffs, big game vs. a division rival or against the lowly Royals. Arroyo's job OTOH is to do a decent job eating innings over the course of a 162-game season, helping his team get to the playoffs and then hopefully (for his team's sake) hiding out at the back of the playoff rotation. There are far more Bronson Arroyo types in baseball than Chris Sale types. BTW I don't have a major problem with Sale as a starter even though I'd much rather see him as a closer. I just see it an unnecessary move that could easily backfire. And I don't see his ceiling as a starter nearly as high as it seems most of the people here do. I've seen a couple times at least where people have said he'd be at or above Danks' level. I completely disagree with that. There have been attempts at trying to improve reliever WAR by using leverage index. That way, the closer, or anyone who is in an important role, usually ends up getting more credit for his contributions. But right now, it's just best to realize that it's imperfect at this point.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 09:57 PM) Then batting runs = ((.385-.325)/1.21)*660 = 32.7. But you have 5 less runs. Park adjustment. I'm using an adjusted wOBA. Adjusted wOBA = .385 * sqrt(100/((105 + 100)/2)) = .380 Where 105 is the Cell's park factor. I added 100 and divided by 2 so that it would have the Cell's effect halved on the actual numbers. I'm not exactly sure how FanGraphs does park adjustments, but I imagine it's close to what I have up there. Edit: I see what I missed. I forgot to square root part in the application I wrote. Now that I put that back in there, it has Dunn at around 30 runs. So he's definitely worth 3.5 wins.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 09:10 PM) I'm okay with the wOBA of .385. But I think if you're using a figure higher than James' prediction, it might be considered optimistic. And the batting runs in your calculation seem low considering your assumptions. What is your wOBA scale? 1.21. That's the 5 year average with more being weighted towards the recent years. The 3 year average is 1.23, but the average wOBA is .324 and wOBA has much, much more impact on the batting runs than the scale does. .385 is his career average. He is 32 and he might be in some decline, but he's moving from a mediocre hitter's park to a great hitter's park. What's interesting is that if you take his wOBA down to .380, his WAR is around 3.1-3.2.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 07:03 PM) Positional adjustments do not take offense statistics into account, only defense. The adjustments were arrived at after the SABR community analyzed loads of stats on players who had played multiple positions. This gave them an idea on exactly how difficult each position was to play in relation to another. Example, because catcher is such a difficult position to play, guys who can fit there have an inherent value which other players do not provide. So they get over a 10 run bump (for a full season) in positional adjustment. Because DH requires zero defensive ability, the positional adjustment takes nearly 20 runs away from them. I think 3.5 WAR is a good estimate for Dunn. Say Dunn gets 660 PAs at DH and puts up a .385 wOBA, both are near his career average. Here's how that breaks down for the components of WAR using a league average wOBA of .325 and assuming the league average runs/game is 4.5. Batting - 27.8 Fielding - 0 Replacement - 22 Positional - (-16.6) RAR - 33.2 Runs/Win - (4.5 + 2) * 1.5 = 9.75 WAR - 3.41

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 05:27 PM) He's due over 20 million dollars the next two years. That makes me want to barf. It's $17 million. He's being paid at fair market value for his production. If you get to dump Teahen in the deal and get a cost controlled player back in Francisco, it's not THAT bad. I still wouldn't do it though.