Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 06:02 PM) White Sox spent a portion of the day talking internally about lining up a series of possible moves. Things could start to heat up. https://twitter.com/ChuckGarfien/status/674377097708765184 This may be thread worthy.

If offers are similar, I don't see how he doesn't pick the Cubs. He used to play for Maddon and is an Illinois native. Plus the flight from Chicago is a bit shorter to Nashville than the one from New York. Seems like a no-doubter to me.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 11:07 PM) Cinci's asking price is exorbitant for Frazier. I don't see it happening unless they change what they want. Lots of suitors too. Have you heard if the Sox are interested? If so, what would be an exorbitant price from our perspective?

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 10:52 PM) Depends what we mean by contend. It would probably get us to 83-84 wins. How do you figure? Upton & Frazier combined for 8 WAR last year, they'd be replacing guys who put up a -3 WAR. That's an 11 point swing right there (assuming production maintains). Doesn't include any improvement from Melky or LaRoche, who combined for -1.7 WAR, which is incredibly likely IMO. Also doesn't consider any improvement from any of our the young guys, in particular Rodon, who has plenty of room to improve over the 2.1 WAR he posted last year. With a couple significant upgrades at 3B & RF, this team could very easily be a legitimate playoff contender.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 10:31 PM) IMO, the Sox are too many impact pieces away. Unless you are able to acquire two power hitters at least, this team will have a hard time competing. Sign Upton, trade for Frazier and we could have a pretty damn good offense. 1. Eaton, CF 2. Johnson, 2B 3. Abreu, 1B 4. Upton, RF 5. Cabrera, LF 6. Frazier, 3B 7. LaRoche, DH 8. Avila, C 9. Saladino, SS IF: Sanchez OF: Thompson UT: ?? BC: Navarro

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 08:13 AM) Yes and Donaldson is going to be getting over 10 million next year. A's can't afford that. Do you have a crystal ball to know how the prospect are going to turn out. Again they are probably going to trade Lawrie which now turns into more prospects for Donaldson. Sox made at stupid trade for shark. Traded 4 players for one year rental which was a bad overall deal plus if they magical sign a player with QO then they get nothing for shark. Just stop, the A's just gave a 35 year old reliever over $7M/year, they easily could have found a way to afford Donaldson. It was horrible trade at the time (short of a Lawrie breakout) and it remains a horrible trade in hindsight.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 07:36 AM) I have been one of the biggest detractors to giving up draft picks of any kind. I feel like if they were going to do this they should have just traded Shark. I am draft fan and some of it is me selfishly wanting to be entertained on draft night. If the White Sox gave up a pick in the 20's for Ian Desmond or Daniel Murphy I'd be furious. I don't think anyone should be upset for doing it for Upton though. Upton was a 3.6 WAR player last year playing in the Cavernous PetCo Park. He would immediately upgrade the White Sox biggest area of need (RF) with a 28 power bat. If they are willing to spend, he's probably the guy. The benefits to having the draft pick are more related to flexibility in my opinion than the actual player taken. The player taken with the 25th pick in the draft will probably never be as good as Upton. It's not that simple though. If the Sox have 3 picks on the first night of June's draft, I'll be happy about it. If Justin Upton is the White Sox starting RF on Opening Day though, I'd be happy about that too. This I 100% agree. All else being equal, I want to keep the pick for the reasons you mentioned. Having said that, if a guy on the right side of 30 is available and can fill a major need for the next 5 years, then I'm totally cool with sacrificing it.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 06:31 AM) I think they have more money to play with than a lot of people want to assume. Some current players are getting increases, but between the 2 catchers signing and the players who are now off the books, Samedzija, Alexei, Beckham. Soto, Bonafacio, Keppinger, Noeisi, Guerra, Flowers they are at about -$30 million from last year before those increases. When they acquired Samardzija, they wanted to sign him long term, so they had to have funds available. I don't know why you and at least one other poster assumes no way over $120 million. They were at $119 last year, and payroll usually goes up. Yep, no one here has any idea what our payroll will be next year, but the Upton rumor suggests it might be a lot higher than most people here are expecting. Also, for those people against signing Upton because of the QO, how do you expect to add an impact otherwise? We don't any prospects in the system that are even close to being options and trade candidates are going to cost a lot more than a draft pick. I get it sucks to lose the pick, but from a talent perspective, it's probably one of the cheaper ways to add an impact bat.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 09:44 PM) I'm okay with Upton if they get rid of Melky and trade Eaton. Avi-Trayce-Upton is a much better OF. Much rather sign Upton than trade young players to rent an overrated fraud like Frazier. Lol...only you would want to sign Upton and then trade Eaton to clear room for Trayce & Avi. What an absolutely horrible, nonsensical idea.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 08:31 PM) Please no. Cincy will get a big package of prospects for him from someone. He's only around for 2 seasons. This is the exact opposite of the sort of thing we should do. 2 years and very likely a comp pick if he leaves. If we can get him without giving up Anderson or Fulmer, then I'm all for it.

Do GMs arrive in Nashville tonight? If so, we could have some late night activity.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Dec 4, 2015 -> 03:34 PM) I don't have time to address the framing argument any further at the moment, although I wish I did because it's a great discussion. But as I posted in the other thread about Flowers' non-tender, people saying his hitting was trash are just simply not paying attention to the rest of the league. He struck out a lot. His ceiling was low. And I'd love to be able to describe the Sox' primary catcher as something more than "average for his league." But his numbers match up closely with the aggregate totals for catchers in the American League, except his rotten 2013. Go look it up for yourself. Flowers was ranked 21 of 28 in wRC+ for catchers with 300+ PAs. He wasn't a good hitter last year, even for a catcher. And this is a great example of why people must look beyond a player's stats in isolation and consider the big picture. Flowers is a low contact hitter who frequently goes extended cold streaks where he provides no value offensively. He's a guy who is far less effective than his wRC+ would suggest because he actually hurts the ability of the players batting around him to produce and ultimately makes our run distribution more variable and therefore less valuable. Not all runs all created equal and he's a perfect example of why. His hitting is trash and the single reason he had to go.

I'm cool with Navarro over Flowers for next year, but these moves put us in a dangerous spot at catcher for 2017. We should still try to add a prospect at the AA or AAA level that can potentially compete for a starting in the near future.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Dec 2, 2015 -> 11:32 PM) Spot on Pitch framing is an over blown stat almost as much as babip Am I wrong, I could be but a top flight pitch framer gets one more called strike game? Why is BABIP overblown?

Dude sucks, Hahn should be fired on the spot if he were to sign this chump.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 2, 2015 -> 11:02 PM) I wouldn't really say Tyler Flowers has defensive value.. pitch framing metrics liked him but how much of this can be attributed to the fact that he had Sale and Quintana who have pretty spot on control throwing to him 2/5 days a week? Other than that I remember him as being clunky and bad behind the plate with a horrible arm.. 100% agree with this.

I'm going to throw out Plawecki. Got to think they're adding a younger catcher if they're willing to non-tender Flowers, given the uncertainty at the position for 2017 & forward. I think an Avi for Plawecki swap makes a lot of sense for both clubs.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 2, 2015 -> 12:06 AM) You harp on endlessly about "hero worship" yet think Price is worth that contract? POTY.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 30, 2015 -> 12:08 PM) It isn't logical you could get something for LaRoche or even much salary relief if it is assumed he will be as horrible next season. If it only saves them a million or so, they are better off seeing if he can bounce back. Baseball Prospectus really thought he would age decently last year. He had one of his highest walk rates and lowest k rates in 2014. Maybe it was just the adjustment to the AL and to DHing that threw him off a bit, but unless there is some real savings, getting rid of him just to get rid of him makes little sense to me. He is a highly respected teammate. I think the adjustments you mentioned were a big part of it, but I don't think was healthy last year either, at least in the 2nd half of the season. Honestly, unless a team is willing to take on a good $8M or so of his deal, there is no reason to move him right now. I'd rather give him a few months to start 2016 in a strict platoon scenario and with a good portion of his starts at 1B. If he flops again, then move Melky to DH full-time and give Trayce an opportunity as an everyday regular.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 30, 2015 -> 07:51 AM) Micah is doing a lot of White Sox holiday charity things right now. IMO, it's a sign he probably isn't out the door, at least they aren't dangling him. I'm ok with moving him if they can get value for him, but they better not just give him away. I think his bat can make him a useful player for us and I'm not against another spring competition between him & Sanchez for the 2B job. I just don't feel comfortable handing Carlos the starting job.

I'd rather go dirt cheap with Rollins on a one year deal than give Cabrera $10M+/per over 3 years. Financial resources should be directed towards 3B & RF, not the middle infield.

Right or wrong, I still see us making a serious run at Cespedes. Our team desperately needs to add a power hitter to our lineup and he's perhaps the only option available that won't cost us a draft pick or prospects. Plus in a corner spot, he's a significant upgrade over Avi & Melky defensively.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Nov 28, 2015 -> 05:17 PM) He's still cheap, most likely had options (not positive), and there are plenty of spots on the 40 man at the moment. Why would you DFA Webb? 100% agree. Send him down to AAA to start the season. He still has a nice arm and offers some depth in the event of injury.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2015 -> 08:35 AM) Huh? Dick's right, Johnson put up a 5.93 FIP in six starts. I'm not overly concerned, as I'd assume most of his struggles were due to nerves and a tired arm.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 26, 2015 -> 12:35 AM) It matters because it actually takes regression into account. You can say it's an imperfect system, but it's a hell of a lot more accurate than the typical fan "projection" which is always expecting every player to perform at their peak. OP said that a "conservative projection" is matching his career high. That's ridiculous. Any given player is never "likely" to match their career year at any given time. But why should we expect a 27 year old pitcher to regress? And you keep harping on his career high 5.1 WAR season, but his next season was a 4.8 WAR season. It's not like his career high season was much of an outlier. Again, I'm not sure how any projection system could come up with a 3.6 WAR protection for Quintana next year. That's a 25% drop in production vs. his two-year run rate (the only years he wasn't a developing pitcher). Given he's only 26, it's hard for me to believe he's already peaked and should start trending downwards. The guy is safely a 4.0 WAR pitcher and a good a 50/50 forecast would be a 4.5 WAR season in 2016. Unless Steamer is intended to be ridiculously conservative (what's the value in it then?), I think it's pretty fair to say their projection for Jose Quintana alone is bunk.