Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 18, 2015 -> 07:51 PM) He could have thrown a perfect game tonight and I would have said same thing. Looking at mookie's numbers just now on fangraphs just makes me want a mega-deal with Boston even more Fair enough then. I just don't think any of us should overreact to his putrid numbers as of late (whether due to a tired arm or simply losing focus in a lossed season), when we all saw how dominant he's capable of being earlier this year.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 18, 2015 -> 07:11 PM) Also forget trading Q, the real piece Hahn should be using is Sale to get some impact bats Fathom, you've officially hit an all-time low in terms of overreactions.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Sep 12, 2015 -> 08:43 AM) Outfield defense has to be resolved. Either Melky or Avi needs to be a DH more than an outfielder. The Sox need to acquire an outfielder who can hit and defend. For example, Boston now has 3 young outfielders hitting above .280 all of whom are above average defensively. Maybe Hahn could get one of them and one of their young catchers in exchange for pitching. At the trade deadline, I has proposed Q for Bradley and Swihart + prospects but my guess is Boston won't do that now that Dombrowski has taken over and Bradley has exploded. I agree we can't enter 2016 with Melky & Avi in the same OF. I'm fine with one of them in LF, but like you said we need a legit two-way player for RF. If you could find a taker for LaRoche (while eating half his salary), I'd be ok with rotating Melky & Avi between LF & DH next year. Unfortunately, I think we're stuck with him, which makes giving Avi another opportunity a tough proposition. If we're serious about competing next year, under no circumstance can we give LaRoche, Melky, & Avi the majority of the playing time in LF, RF, & DH. An upgrade is needed in addition to using Trayce off the bench against LHP.

Anyone got some guesses on the type of contracts the big four OFs get this offseason? Really think we got to snag one of these guys. I know we'd have to give up a draft pick to sign all of them but Cespedes, but this team isn't take a big step forward without adding some legit bats.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:21 PM) I think the Sox need to get multiple boppers. Longoria, CarGo/Puig. Hell, I'd check in on Detroit to see if they'd be willing to deal Miggy or the Angels with Pujols. Look at Beltre. I need at least 3 proven bats, I need LaRoche gone, I'm willing to deal Q. Definitely let Jeff S go. I think two legit bats (preferably RF & 3B) and improvement from some of our holdovers makes us contenders next year. The pitching staff should actually be better with Rodon's continued development, Johnson replacing a disappointing Shark, & a full season of Nate Jones. We don't need an elite offense, just can't be bottom five in OPS & ISO like we are this year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 02:02 PM) Why would you say you can win with Melky and not Avi? Melky has also been one of the worst OFs in baseball this year, his defense hasnt been quite Garciabad but his offense has been worse. If Melky goes on your list of guys you can win with then Avi does as well. Because 2015 2016 and Melky has an actual track record of being a good hitter. Unless you believe peds are the reason for his drop-off, I think there's reason to expect a decent amount of positive regression next year. As for Avi, his lack of plate discipline gives me little faith he'll turn the corner. Definitely could happen, but there is nothing available today that makes me feel confident that he'll be more than the next Viciedo.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 10:12 PM) Really the only value that the Sox have to trade is veteran starting pitching. Oh they can shuffle the Danishs and perhaps Micah but leave A ball alone - a lot of talent of which it's still to hard to judge real value. And some want to trade Avi - can't wait to get rid of him. This is his first full ML season and he's doing pretty well. Ridiculous. I listened to a Law chat and someone asked him about Trayce. He says that Trayce is a 70 defensive centerfielder. But he doesn't like the bat at all because the swing is long and somewhat loopy. He hasn't seen Trayce on the Sox, though. So my question, is his swing still long? Or has the pitching coach, perhaps, done something with him. Because if this is sustainable, or partially sustainable, the Sox have another trade chit: Eaton. The Sox aren't trading their second best hitter when they're desperate for offense, especially not when he is cost-controlled for multiple years.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 07:58 PM) The answer is simple: cut bait on the guppy. The expected 2.5 WAR from the draft pick over the course of his career simply is not worth the very good chance that Shark accepts the QO. You keep highlighting this "expected 2.5 career WAR" draft pick, which is a terrible way to look at draft picks. We get it, most draft picks amount to nothing. But occasionally, a guy drafted in the comp round ends up a 10 WAR player or even a 20 WAR player. This isn't a bell curve with 2.5 as the mean. It's a skewed distribution, but one with some big payoffs if you select the right player. And a significant part of that payoff is the surplus value a good pick provides, which is the lifeblood of successful organizations. By treating all WAR the same and ignoring the financial cost to acquire said production, your logic basically devalues draft picks of all rounds, with maybe the exception of the 1st overall pick. Also, there is almost no chance Shark accepts the QO. He won't get the seven figure deal he was hoping for, but some team will offer him a James Shields contract. Scouts have always loved the arm and there is always one GM willing to do something stupid in free agency.

Existing Sox Players -Make qualifying offer to Shark (he rejects). -Reject Alexei Ramirez's option -Resign Soto to 1/$5M deal. -Resign Albers to 1/$3M deal. -Trade for Flowers for A ball lottery ticket. Free Agents & Acquistions -Sign Justin Upton to 6/$130M deal -Sign Ben Zobrist to 2/$28M deal -Sign Billingsley to 1 year deal w/ incentives -Trade Avi Garcia to the Mets for Kevin Plawecki 1. Eaton, CF 2. Zobrist, 3B 3. Abreu, DH (1B against LHP) 4. Cabrera, LF (DH against LHP) 5. Upton, RF 6. LaRoche, 1B (bench against LHP) 7. Plawecki, C 8. Sanchez, SS (bench against LHP) 9. Johnson, 2B IF: Saladino (SS against LHP) OF: Thompson (LF against LHP) UT: L. Garcia BC: Soto #1: Sale #2: Quintana #3: Rodon #4: Johnson #5: Danks (Fulmer mid-season call-up) CL: Robertson SU: Jones SU: Duke MR: Putnam MR: Jennings MR: Petricka MR: Albers

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 08:49 PM) Your inability to accept reality does you no credit. Any other organization would fire all these parts. I believe the White Sox are a better organization than one playoff appearance in 9 years. It's a shame you accept that mediocrity. Clearly you wouldn't know good baseball if it hit you over the head. Lol...you know jack s*** about me bro. What I know about you is you recently came to this site with this "I'm smarter than everyone" attitude because you believe all us "Cubs haters" won't acknowledge how bad things have gotten. Outside of a select few posters, we're all aware how mediocre this organization has been since 2005. And quite frankly, I agree that a lot of the leadership needs to go, including KW, Ventura, & Buddy Bell. But when you say Chris Sale is the only guy on the roster who'd be part of a good Sox team, you sound like a whiny little b**** looking for attention. Just absolute garbage and if you continue to make comments like that, you'll continue to get flamed (which is maybe what you're looking for in the first place).

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 08:41 PM) Fire Kenny Williams Fire Rick Hahn Fire Robin Ventura Fire most scouting Begin the recovery process with a real general manager and baseball operations team. Our current players just don't matter. None of them outside of Sale could possibly part of the "good White Sox" One of most garbage posts I've seen on this website in quite some time.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Sep 3, 2015 -> 07:26 AM) Saladino is a rookie with one month of major league experience. He has had success in his career in the minors. Why are people writing him off as if he'll never improve? Whenever young players are on other teams and struggle people are more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. But when it comes to here, what players do in their first month equates to their career ceilings? Saladino has had his moments, both good and bad, and maybe utility player is his ceiling (which is fine), but I think it's a bit early to declare that his definitive future. x1,000...look at how much better Sanchez has been after a horrific start. Young players require patience.

Assuming we're stuck with LaRoche next year, we have to platoon him AND play him more at 1B. Not only is Adam clearly the better defender at 1B, but Abreu has not shown any issues with DHing. Given Thompson's splits against LHP, he should be in the lineup every game LaRoche is on the bench. Therefore, here's what I'd propose doing at 1B, DH, & LF next year: Against RHP 1B: LaRoche DH: Abreu LF: Melky Against LHP 1B: Abreu DH: Melky LF: Thompson

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:39 PM) My overall summary is that if people are going to talk about whether we're going to trade a $10 million player at the waiver wire to clear salary and whether we're going to make an offer to corner OF's likely to get $20 million/season or more, its equally fair to ask where we're going to get the funds and whether it would be a good idea. I think the point is you don't have as good of a grasp on the Sox's financial situation as you think you do. None of us know what their financial forecasts are. You can't just look at last year's P&L and assume the same exact performance the following year. New revenue streams may become available, price increases or cost savings could impact the bottom line. There are numerous things that could impact payroll that you have no access to. And for love of God, please stop taking what Reinsdorf, KW, or Hahn say about our financial situation as gospel. These guys have no absolutely reason to be honest about this with fans. They are much better off keeping the competition in the dark.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:05 PM) That's because you put a hedge in everything you say. It's fine, I do the exact same thing. But I also pasted the entirety of the posts to avoid taking anything out of context, and like I said before, the tone is very evident. All those posts were around the same part of the season during which you're now doing it again. How about instead of analyzing ledgers we all just acknowledge that aside from the impossibility of the Sox spending $200+ million, we don't know what they're gonna do? Shyrocks, thanks for finding this. I argued with Balta all last season about our potential 2015 payroll and he was convinced $100M would be our cap, despite the additional national TV revenue. Glad to see him finally held accountable for those statements.

Regardless of their revenues today, at some point the organization is going to ramp up its spending and try to build some legitimate interest in the team prior to their TV deal expiring at the end of 2019. The potential payoffs from a long-term TV deal will far outweigh the incremental payroll in the short-term. May not happen this offseason, but it will happen in the near future if these guys have any idea what they're doing.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 06:24 PM) The average ERA of pitchers across all of baseball at home is 3.71. The average ERA of pitchers across all of baseball on the road is 4.14. The average pitcher, if there was such a thing, is 0.43 runs per 9 innings worse on the road than at home. Did you really think I couldn't check that? What's our home-road ERA differential?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 06:16 PM) Most Sox pitchers have higher ERA's on the road. Explain. Do most pitchers have favorable home spits? What's the differential between us and other teams?

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 05:43 PM) Waving goodbye to Samardzija saves 9.8M right of the bat. Looking at the contracts, there is potential for the Sox to save a few bucks here and there which can add up. I agree with LDF that this off season will be a very interesting one. The Sox will have some room to work with. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensa...cago-white-sox/ We'll free up nearly $10M by getting rid of Bonifacio, Beckham, & the ghost of Jeff Keppinger. Throw in Shark & Alexei and we could be looking at a good $30M in savings. Obviously there will be raises that offsets a portion of this money, but we should be able to add some pieces in free agency this offseason.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 04:35 AM) Erik Johnson, Micah Johnson, Davidson are my specific 3. I wana see some MLB ABs from Davidson. Let's evaluate some guys in a lost season. Take advantage of these ABs The fascination with Davidson is bizarre. He would get murdered at the major league level.

QUOTE (Saufley @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 02:33 PM) OK, I'll go along with that but I doubt very much JR will fire KW, BB and RV. Hopefully KW will get an offer elsewhere and he'll be let go to take it. I just don't know how we are going to get rid of the other two. Yeah, I'm doubtful they'll let Robin go, but I could definitely see Buddy get the can if KW leaves.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 10:31 AM) Hitting .242 with a .646 OPS in August. He had a ridiculous July, but as soon as he no longer had the Red Sox pitching staff to hit he swung back the other way. His July seems accurately described as "one of those bizarre stretches that can never be explained but ultimately mean nothing in terms of future performance" just as fairly. Overall, his full season numbers with a .704 OPS seem like they do a good job of reflecting what he did this year. Melky also has a .242 BABIP in August, which perfectly explains his below average performance. Tell me the reasoning for him posting ISOs below .042 for two straight months to start the season?

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 10:02 AM) Melky was a worse signing than LaRoche? Lmao ok. Seriously. I'm not too worried about Melky going forward. Think his 1st half was just one of those bizarre stretches that can never be explained but ultimately mean nothing in terms of future performance.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 09:50 AM) The point is...that's by far the likelist scenario when you try to remake your roster on the FA market. With the guys you're paying full price for, there's a very high chance that they will under-perform substantially. That's why they're on the FA market and available in the first place. When you sign 1, you've got a fair chance that guy will perform and a fair chance he'll underperform. There's virtually no chance he'll overperform if you're paying full price for him because the demand on the FA market is that great. If you're trying to find 4-5 different pieces, and 2 or 3 of them significantly underperform while 2-3 are about where they should be, your roster is going to be missing 4 to 5 wins compared to what you budgeted for. When you're buying full priced guys, there's virtually no upside risk and there's a lot of downside risk. There's so much demand on the market by teams that actually are competitive that you are extremely likely to find several duds if you try to find several guys. Oh, and I should also note the risk of guys underperforming is probably even higher if some of the pieces you're trying to find are guys for your bullpen. I'm going to disagree with most of what you say here. There are plenty of reasons guys reach free agency and most don't have to do with an expected immediete & complete decline in production. Pretty sure the Nationals didn't bring back Adam because they wanted to shift Zimmerman to 1B. Not sure about Cabrera, but it's possible that wanted him at less years and/or money or simply preferred the comp pick and filling the whole in a less expensive way. Let's not pretend that players have no say in reaching free agency. And the problem with free agency is the premium you pay for production and the risk at the end of contracts (typically the long-term ones). For short-term deals, it's usually more of resource efficiency issue. The most likely expectation should never be they'll under-perform their recent production substantially in year one Their production should be expected to decrease some due to age, and as a ratio to their pay perhaps quite a bit due to the premium paid, but you can't tell me with a straight you should expect these guys to fall off the earth simply because they reached free agency. And quite frankly, that's exactly what happened with LaRoche & Melky. No doubt it was possible with Adam, but still a low probability outcome. Melky even less so, unless you believe PED usage is the reason for the sudden drop-off (I don't). Again, sign two different free agents and perhaps this season has a better outcome.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 09:31 AM) To my eyes, the reason why the strategy was flawed was that it relied on doing things that don't work. Paying full price for mid-level free agents is not working for almost anyone right now. Teams don't let guys who are actually contributing reach free agency until they're old enough that decline looks likely or unless they have other issues. Once they get to free agency, then there are so many teams going after so few guys in order to "Win right now" that you have to massively overpay. You brought up the fWAR numbers - it was going to be almost impossible for Robertson and LaRoche to be worth their contracts this year in fWAR terms, we paid a "win now premium price" on those guys. Fangraphs even wrote an article last December about how the White Sox massively overpaid for LaRoche because even with a small decline the fact that he'd be playing DH most of the time meant he'd struggle to put up 1.5 fWAR in a good year. They then threw in the "but maybe if the White Sox are ready to compete that's ok" - but you can't say that about half your roster. If your plan is to remake your roster with expensive, FA additions, where you're paying full price and not getting a discount for any reason, the 2015 Chicago White Sox (or the 2015 Red Sox, for that matter) is probably going to be the end result. If you're trying to take a team that is close and fill 1 hole...that can potentially be done. Teams can find guys to supplement their roster, but when 15 teams are looking to pay a premium price to fill 1-2 roster holes and your team is looking to fill 7-8, your strategy cannot work. It's not really about the money though. Overpaying for LaRoche & Melky would be fine if they were productive. The problem is they're pretty much under-performing by a good 4 to 5 wins. There are plenty of free agents that are performing at or even exceeding expectations (whether they're overpaid or not). The same strategy of "going for it" could have resulted in a much more favorable outcome if the execution consisted of a different set of players.