Chicago White Sox

Giolito will hopefully get an extension around 5/$50M (similar to Snell). That price range is pretty well established after the Nola & Servino deals. It’s harder to peg a deal for Moncada. I could see a framework being similar to Bregman’s extension, so around 6/$95M (given Yoan isn’t arb eligible yet) but I could see him being reluctant to give up more than one free agent year.

It really seems bizarre.

Our A+ pitching coach is probably the best in the system.

Why are the odds low for Castellanos & Ozuna? Like where do you even come up with this stuff.

I think this narrative is overblown. Do I think Reinsdorf would go seven or eight years for a pitcher? Definitely not. But we have done five year deals in the past (John Danks) and were rumored to have offered Tanaka a seven figure contract which implies at least five years. Like I said previously, I truly believe anyone other than Cole and probably Strasburg should be on the table on the pitching side of things. My guess is that Wheeler & Bumgarner are our top two pitching priorities and my assumption is the Sox will come out aggressive to land one of them and avoid even playing the long game with Cole & Strasburg.

Kid has really put himself back on the map this year. Can’t wait to see how he responds to the juiced ball in 2020.

The difference is I now have zero faith the Sox will sign Cole or Rendon. I don’t even think Strasburg is likely. After that, most guys will get contracts that we’re more than capable of offering. The Sox offered Machado 8/$250M or essentially $31M/year. Yes, it was stupid to think that was enough and it ultimately blew up in their faces, but the reality is they were ready to commit significant dollars to a single player. To think they can’t sign guys who will be around $100M max is crazy to me. The Sox have never had this kind of financial flexibility in recent memory and to cite past history as a reason to be skeptical doesn’t make much sense. They should be one of the biggest spenders over the next two free agent classes full stop.

Good, we just offered Machado $250M so it seems like we’ll have the necessary funds available for Yoan when needed.

JFC...you’d prefer this than gaining an extra year of team control?

Based on this season? What in the fuck are you talking about dude? The Rays extended the 2018 Cy Young Winner and we can’t lock up Giolito? Are you fucking serious? You claimed you weren’t a Negative Nancy and that’s apparently lasted about 48 hours.

Right now, we have to operate under the assumption the Sox feel they can extend Moncada & Giolito. If they can, then these “service time games” will actually help us optimize our window.

Waste this rebuild? Getting an extra year of Kopech would be huge. If all that takes is signing an extra free agent starter than by all means do it. And guess what, if Kopech is lighting up the world in AAA right from the start then we can simply adjust the plan and forego that extra year if we so choose.

Good stuff...just need Getz to finally get some of these guys to succeed in full season ball. Lenyn Sosa still has a chance, but not a lot of success stories after Robert & Adolfo.

So you’re drawing these sweeping conclusions of Wheeler (including calling him Javy Vasquez) based on 25 starts?

I really don’t think it’s all that crazy. And I agree, Bumgarner will get at least one more year due to his track record and the fact he’s a lefty.

Wheeler’s career ERA, FIP, & xFIP are within 0.12 points of each other...

Call it what you want to call it, but Wheeler has made more starts since 2017 than Bumgarner. He also has much less mileage on his arm and the stuff remains top-end. You’re too focused on the need for a lefty IMO.

Wheeler >>>>>> Bumgarner IMO

What would you be willing to give Wheeler? 4/$80M seems like a very real possibility IMO and something that I’d do in a heartbeat.

I thought he said or at least implied that in the NBC Sports podcast.

Exactly, and I believe Hahn pretty much confirmed they will be looking to acquire premium pitching this offseason.

Yup, and no doubt it is hard to measure due to small sample sizes, but common sense dictates people react differently to stress.

100% this. If Yolmer wants more than $2M or so, then Goins & Mendick can compete for the backup IF job next year.

His career wRC+ with RISP (in nearly 1,000 plate appearances) is significantly higher than without RISP. Are you saying that is a small sample size bias? My view is in the analytics community there is oftentimes confusion that certain things don’t exist or aren’t true because they can’t be validated due to sample size limitations. I feel strongly that certain players perform at higher or lower level in clutch situations whether it can be measured or not.

Then we’ll be rocking well below average payrolls for the near future and that would be stupid as fuck when we have a cheap, young core already in place.