Chicago White Sox

Lance Lynn will most definitely get more money/years than he did coming off a bad season and tied to draft pick compensation. Your forecast for what Marwin Gonzalez will get is also way off. He’ll get three to four years with an AAV close to $10m I’d wager.

Baseball is a rich white kid’s sport now?

Still the best shower ever IMO.

Sure, I see random kids wearing Sox gear all the time. The Cubs are obviously more possible, but it’s not like our fanbase is dead.

How many of those followers are outside of Chicago? And I’d wager the Cubs’ fanbase is far more likely to have Twitter accounts that ours. I think this an incredibly flawed way to determine our share of the city.

This is just way too simplistic of an assessment. Where in the world did you come up with the Sox only having 30% of the market? I’m sure the Cubs have a larger share of Chicago, but their real edge is a fanbase that extends outside of the city limits. And the potential market is not based on their current share, but as the word says “potential”. The Sox with a strong run of competitiveness over a few years can steal a large part of the casual fanbase in Chicago.

Look, I hope you are right, but I’m guessing there would be plenty of teams interested in Gray and very few willing to give up anything of value for Avi. I think the Rockies can either get a better return or simply sign a comparable OF in free agency.

The Rockies. Avi has little to no trade value at the moment. Jon Gray is still a super interesting arm with three years of control. He’d a great buy low guy if the Rockies were looking to move him.

Can you send me a PM too?

See, I would be against adding any relievers for big dollars. I think we have a ton of young, exciting arms that actually warrant opportunities next year. By all means, look at a bounce-back guy on a one year deal & add some NRI’s to the mix, but expensive multi-year relievers are typically poor investments when you’re not ready to compete.

Well sure, we’d all love to do this (including the Sox), but after a few teams got burned (us with Tatis, the Dodgers with Alvarez, the Marlins with Martes, etc.) it became much harder to pull these types of moves off. GMs don’t want to be the guy who gave up a future stud for a mediocre player, so they’ll try to keep as many of these far-away guys off limits. It’s just not viable strategy anymore and it still requires having tradable pieces which we lack.

I have never seen the Sox front office make any sort of statement suggesting the talent acquisition phase is over. The problem is we don’t have a lot of assets that are both valuable and make sense to move, so it is effectively over in a way. How do you suggest they add more talent then? The returns on rentals have been pretty poor of late to put it lightly.

What young players are you referring to? Most of the recent dialogue in this thread has centered around starting pitching and even Hahn has acknowledged this is a huge area of need in the near-term.

See, I actually think Lance Lynn could be a nice value signing because of how the market is viewing mid rotation starters. Last year very few starters got more than two year deals and several were massive busts (Cobb & Chatwood). I fully expect that trend to continue this offseason with Lynn potentially being a victim of that line of thinking. And that would be great for us IMO. Lynn was a consistent 3 WAR pitched prior to his TJS. He struggled in his first year back in 2017 and with the Twins last year, but was excellent with Yankees and had very solid peripherals overall. And on top of that his velocity was back and as good as ever. He’s looking much like the 3 WAR starter he was for the majority’s of his career. If we can land him for say 2/$35M, that’s a contract I will happily roll the dice on because there is real potential for surplus value and limited long-term risk.

But is anyone actually saying the Bears should make the playoffs this year? I think even the most optimistic fans have said Mitch would have to take big step forward and they’d have to have some good luck. IIRC, your intial take was this was a six win team. Clearly they are a better team than that and that’s all that people are really arguing.

This team is not mediocre. The defense is still top notch IMO despite the last couple games and the offense has a ton of interesting weapons. There is a lot to be optimistic about here. The problem is you can’t accept that Mitch is a work in progress and that he will have mediocre performances like today. If/when it clicks, this team will have the potential to be extremely dangerous. Whether that happens this season or not remains to be seen, but I’m certainly glad the necessary pieces are already in place in the event he does take that next step. There was absolutely nothing fun about last year no matter how you want to spin it.

FYI...Rodon is under control for three more seasons.

You must not have paid much attention to how last year went. Let’s recap for fun. Rodon only made 20 starts and put up a 4.95 FIP due an ugly K rate. He’s the ace of the staff heading into next season. Our current #2 starter would be Lopez and he’s coming off a 4.63 FIP but at least pitched a full season. He did show some flashes last year and I’m actually optimistic about him long-term, but he still has a long way to go with his change & curveball to be anything more than a mid-rotation starter. That leaves good ole Giolito and his MLB worst 5.56 FIP for qualified starters. While there were a few moments where you could squint and see shades of the former top prospect, his season overall was an absolute disaster. There is a non-zero chance that none of these guys will be in our 2020 rotation. Beyond the “ Big Three” we’re counting on this year, you got Kopech who is coming off TJS and Burdi’s recovery to date doesn’t inspire full confidence that Michael will be ready to go opening day 2020. You got Dunning coming off a mysterious elbow injury. You got Hansen who has gone ass backwards with his command & mechanics. That leaves Cease as the only other guy who might ready in the near-term with TOR upside. And he’s a guy who just went over a 100 innings for the first time in his career. Right now, there a ton of question marks with this group. So in conclusion, last year was a complete mess on the pitching side of things and if it taught me one thing it’s that you can never have enough pitching. I don’t view Lance Lynn (or someone similar) on a two year deal being a “space eating contract”. I view that pitcher as a stabilizing veteran that this staff desperately needs. And if we have to eat $15M in 2020 because so many things have gone right with the young kids (again highly unlikely) that’s a small price to pay given our current financial flexibility.

In that unlikely scenario, I would trade the $15M/year starter to free up a spot. But realistically speaking, I don’t envision both Giolito & Rodon here to start the 2020 season. Both guys are huge question marks at the moment for me (for different reasons). And either way, I think there is value in having a veteran lead a young staff. Again, it all depends on the contract. The starting pitching market actually has some depth this year and we might be able to find some value there. I would not overpay substantially for stability & veteran leadership, but I’m prepared to go multi-year for the right guy at the right price.

Ok, this better explains your point of view than the other posts I responded to. And I agree for the most part, although I think we’ll need to add one veteran to a two year deal. As much as I want to dream of a 2020 rotation of the five guys you mentioned, there will likely be attrition. Adding someone like Lynn on a two year deal provides stability in the event someone goes down with injury or doesn’t take that next step and allows to us look into trading Rodon if we decide that’s a path worth exploring. So hypothetically speaking, I’d love to add someone like Lynn on a two year deal and someone like Pomeranz on a one year deal. Those types of contracts will not prevent us from making room for our actual prospects when the time is right and would provide a nice mix of upside & stability. I don’t want to waste two rotation spots on guys like Shields & MiGo who do nothing but eat innings and that might require us to go multi-year to fill at least one of the spots.

How does signing a free agent pitcher impact Giolito’s shot this year? Last I saw we have two holes in the rotation and another starter who has never managed to stay healthy an entire season.

If Giolito doesn’t take a significant step forward in 2019, then he won’t be in the rotation come 2020. That should be fairy obvious. Rodon isn’t a lock to be part of the long-term mix either given his limited team control. You’re also ignoring potential injuries. Adding a veteran starter gives us more flexibility and sets us up better for a 2020 wild card run if enough things go right next year. Worrying about having too much starting pitching is like the ultimate first world problem and something I’ll happily deal with in 2020 in the unlikely even it materializes. That being said, I would try to limit any deal to two or three years (depending on the pitcher) if possible by offering up a higher AAV.

Fully agree. We’ll definitely be in the mix, but with the way the 2018 season shaked out, our offer will need to a be cut above the rest. And there will need to be a clear commitment by our ownership group & front office to add more impact talent over the next few offseasons. Given that we’re not a “win now” team like other organizations in the mix, we desperately need to sell these guys on the potential of coming to the Sox such as having an elite farm system, significant payroll flexibility, & the easiest path to the playoffs in the MLB (thanks AL Central). I truly believe that those can be compelling selling points, but again the money has to be there. And I know I’ll get a ton of shit for this, but no team is better prepared and should be more motivated to offer these guys a record breaking contract than the White Sox. I truly believe our leadership realizes that adding a legit superstar would instantly pay dividends and is prepared to do everything it can to land one of these guys this offseason.

I don’t really disagree with anything you say here. It all depends on the player & contract. I’m willing to use some cash in the short-term to add some stability and provide a bridge to the next wave of prospects for the right guy. I would love to add someone like Lance Lynn on a two year deal for maybe a bit higher salary than he’d otherwise get. I really don’t see the downsize risk adding an arm like this if the years are limited.

Pomeranz is definitely a guy I’d roll the dice on to fill a spot in the back-end of the rotation. I bet you can get him on a pretty favorable deal given how awful his 2018 season was and a decently sized group of starting alternatives available on the market.