thxfrthmmrs

How many innings Kopecki will throw this season? 100? 110? Already at 92 after tonight.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 04:49 PM) I thought it was real gm. He started a GoFundMe and posted on Reddit. http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/fire-ga...-the-west-loop/

So David Phelps who has no closer experience got a pretty nice return for the Marlins. And yet people still want to believe Robertson has no value in the trade market and that him for Clarkin and Clippard salary would be a fair deal. Granted Robertson makes about twice the salary, but eating half of his 2018 salary shouldn't have been an issue.

QUOTE (Quin @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 01:08 PM) RealGM board. Reddit board. Now listen to the people JR!

QUOTE (Quin @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 10:17 AM) That's reasonable for ceiling. Whether he comes close is another matter. Based on fangraphs present and future value of his tools, it's hard to project 30/20 with elite defense, even if we're talking about pure ceiling. I think .300 20 HR 10 SB with above average corner outfield defense is more likely his ceiling.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 20, 2017 -> 09:12 AM) Rutherfords upside is a guy who hits .280/30 HR/20 SB and plays elite RF. Not sure he gets there, but that is what you should get if he were to hit his ceiling. This reminds me of Hawk talking about Avi's ceiling. Too optimistic.

QUOTE (TRU @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:30 PM) I think if that were true Robertson would have been gone at some point before last night. No one is itching to pay 13 million + for a good but not dominant closer. Especially when its pretty obvious the Sox did not want to eat any of his salary in a deal. Frazier was practically worthless. He didn't need to be here anymore and we couldn't offer the QO to get a pick because he would have more than likely accepted it. I don't even consider him an asset in this deal. Ultimately we get a top 30-40ish prospect plus two more actual prospects to unload the Robertson money and Kahnle. Actually I think Red Sox would have paid two B level prospects for Frazier and Robertson. Have you seen who they are running out there at 3rd right now? And they're pretty adamant about bringing Devers along slowly. I think a deal with Red Sox didn't happen because Hanh wanted an A level prospect instead, and he probably view Clarkin and Polo as higher than the industry ranks them. The fact that Yankees were willing to eat Robertson's salary helped. That's why he threw in Kahnle as well, who has significant value on his own right now, and even more so in the future.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 12:28 PM) Older admins/mods with not a lot of team control left on their deals who had no value to Soxtalk during the site rebuild. Either of these lefties? If not, Lilian isn't going to be happy.

Swarzak would be a rental right? At best, we could hope for a lotto ticket, that's about it. I don't mind packaging him and Avi for something bigger. QUOTE (Username @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 12:51 PM) Might not be a bad guy to hold onto right up until the deadline. Get him some closing opportunities (if he gets any with this new roster lol) and see if you can leverage a desperate team. Not sure if a couple weeks at the closer role is enough to change anything for a team in contention.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 11:13 AM) Crain was having an extremely dominating season before going down and was coming off two straight above average seasons. Jesse Crain had a lot of value...of course by the point we were about to trade Arrietta for Crain..it was after he was hurt (and his value had already been diminished significnatly) and when he was about to come back (or so we thought...reality was he was never the same after that injury). Had we sold Crain before he got hurt that year, we'd have got some nice chips. He had a .74 ERA in 38 games that year (and the prior two seasons with the Sox had a 2.62 and 2.44 ERA) while striking out 11.3, 11.3, and 9.6 batters per nine innings. He put up a 2.4 WAR as a reliever in 38 games prior to going down with that injury. That is filthy. With one the best training staff in the league (this year seems like an outlier from the past decade) I think I would bet on Kahnle staying healthy with us than not. I am not sure people are trying to get rid of him like diseases after Jones went down, who has a pretty extensive injury history. Heck if we are so distrusting of our training staff or are concerned with pitchers getting injured, we would have traded Sale a long time ago and wouldn't have drafted Rodon or Fulmer.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 11:07 AM) And I think people need to stop and think about what they are saying when they say "No FA like that is going to want to come to the Sox." As someone aptly said yesterday, "This is not your Father's White Sox organization." If enough of these guys pan out, and we've got a really talented young team on the field, I will ask the question: Why would Bryce Harper NOT want to come to the White Sox? Exactly. The culture has changed with this rebuild. If enough of our guys pan out, the core we have will be extremely attractive to future FA's.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 10:52 AM) The saying goes, rebuilding clubs should always be trading relievers. The trade really breaks down like this: Robertson + Frazier for Ian Clarkin + Tito Polo + Tyler Clippard ($2.5 million owed, Sox pay) + Yankees pay entire remaining salaries for Robertson/Frazier (Sox save roughly $20 million) Kahnle for Rutherford I like Kahnle, I really do. I know he has shown great improvement this year and has been outstanding, and very well may continue to do so. I also know what happened to Jesse Crain, Scott Linebrink and Nate Jones though. Relief pitching is arguably one of the most volatile positions in the sport. Overall we should be very happy with this deal, as it both saved the club money and added young talent. Hahn has done a tremendous job stocking our farm system with interesting young players. Not all of them will pan out, but the team certainly has plenty of potential options and depth that it did not have 12 months ago. This deal also greatly aids our tank efforts, as I do not see them winning very many games with such a shaky bullpen. Also, consider we traded Gordon Beckham for Yency Almonte...Yency Almonte for Tommy Kahnle...Tommy Kahnle for Blake Rutherford.................we basically used Gordon Beckham to acquire Blake Rutherford I don't think Kahnle for Rutherford is too far off. But did anyone actually expect only two C level prospects for Frazier and Robertson before deal went down? I think that's even worse than A's got for two lesser players, which was considered a slim return. Money saving is nice on paper but we're in good spot financially, would have prefer to eat some money with another team to get a B level prospect in return.

I'm sure this has already been posted, but for anyone who still thinks Kahnle is headed to worthless territory in a few months, here is a nice article with detailed breakdown on Kahnle's success. Also includes a nice comparison of him to another well known reliever. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...jor-trade-chip/

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 10:11 AM) Spot on. Exactly my line of thinking as well. What more can we expect if Kahnle keeps this up? Rutherford is a good few months away from being considered untouchable. He's not an easy player to part with due to his potential. I think that is the fallacy of prospects in baseball. Your take on Kahnle who is having a breakout year backed by improvement in stuff - he's a few bad months away from being worthless. Then for Rutherford who is off to a relatively slow start in Low A - he's a few good months away from being untouchable. Right, because historical trends tells us players in midst of breakout aren't continue to sustain performance, while prospects are very much likely going to pan out?

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:50 AM) He's had months of consistency before, only to lose command and see his ERA spike. For over half a season? In which year? But I don't think we can equate consistency in numbers with improvement in his changeup or fastball command.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:43 AM) But there is not as much control left on Kahnle, and if he's dealt next deadline it would be as a rental. Also, if there is one thing the White Sox have in spades it's right handers with explosive stuff. They are in a pretty good position to replace Kahnle without ever noticing hes gone. He's got three and a half year left, just like Q.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:22 AM) Because he had to take some off to get it over the plate. He's always thrown extreme gas. He's always been throwing hard, so if he's able to throw hard more consistently now due to improved command, then it's more likely he's able to sustain success. People act like he's having a fluke year, but there is real reason behind his success.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:23 AM) Look at what the A's got for Doolittle and Madson. Going to stop posting in this thread soon because people just don't get it. A's lowered the market with their deal. Proposed Nats deal was dependent on their desperation for multiple relievers. Maybe you should stop posting here then. I highly doubt you're smarter than everyone else here, because you seem like ignore the facts on how much value relievers have in trade deadlines or FA market in the past few years. One trade with the A's does not change the market. Neither Doolittle or Madson has closer experience like Robertson, and they aren't as dominant as Kahnle. They should rightfully go for less.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:02 AM) Kahnle is a bad two months away from being back to worthless. If he's the next Andrew Miller we made a mistake, but now that we have no bullpen we should be on track for the #1 overall draft pick. Can't see this team winning many more games down the stretch given our rotation, bullpen and offense. That is a basis-less prediction. That's like saying Aaron Judge has had a great first half, but is 2 months away from being an average big league outfielder again. Not comparing the two, but simply saying it's silly to discard the real improvements both players have made this season.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 08:52 AM) Yes, nothing amps me up like a 28 year old reliever prospect. What makes you think odds of Kahnle keeping it up is slim to none? The fact that he's upped his FB velocity to 98 MPH, his increased his swing strike % and is amongst league leaders, his extremely low FIP, xFIP, or his relatively high BABIP? Oh, and he's going to be cheap for the next 3 and a half years, while it may take the same time for Rutherford reach the big leagues, if he does.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 07:06 AM) Yeah, I tend to agree with your take here. It's very easy to start bundling anything left of value that we have to go after "that one last guy," but you probably are going to lose out on additional value had we been patient and taken a calculated risk. I find it difficult to accept the argument that a guy that is currently dominating at the ML level is likely to regress to nothing, but simultaneously throw a ton of stock into a kid from A-ball becoming a good mlb player. I argued that it might be worth it to do this for a guy like Robles, and so if the White Sox truly believe in Rutherford, then it is difficult for me to criticize the FO. But I agree with you and some others here - we likely overpaid to get "our guy," and I truly do think Kahnle has a chance to be a pretty dominant reliever for the Yankees as they make their run over the next several years. Yes, the only reason to accept a deal like this is if Rutherford is your guy, and you value him higher than the industry ranks him. (Trading 3 quality ML'er for one top 40 guy is not a good return). The bolded part nails it. I also find it funny that some guys want to treat it as if we traded Robertson for Clarkin, when in the Nationals thread they wanted guys like Kieboom, Soto, etc for Robertson. Clearly we also did not get good return on Robertson either. I like Rutherford a lot, but still feel like this isn't quite enough. A top 10 guy like Andujar, Adams, Sheffield or Mateo instead of Polo would have made this deal much more palatable.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 03:39 AM) Yea but I think ultimately, as others have posted, the Sox wanted to cash-in on Kahnle and avoid NateJones-style risk. And as Hahn mentioned in the presser, Rutherford is a guy the Sox have been really high on for some time. Seems like a perfect storm of being able to get the guy you want for only bullpen arms and shedding a BUNCH of salary. Can't dismiss the money savings- just the other day it seemed like the Sox would have to kick in a bunch of money just to get B&C level prospects for DRob and Frazsh. The cost is selling Kahnle at maybe .80 on the dollar. The plus side is no more Kahnle risk, the guy you want, and about 20M dollars. Not bad for .80. I get both sides and I hated the deal at first, but now I'm all aboard. The other guys have serious upside too! I don't like that mindset, that we need to trade every reliever as soon as they become good, but before they become great. Nate Jones has always been an injury prone. Same cannot be said about Kahnle. He's also have relatively low mileage on his arm, and his delivery doesn't put him at more risk than others. With that mindset, we may as well find new relievers every year because chance of them imploding the next year is so great. Anyways, I think in this case, the potential return outweighs the risk. I'm also not sure if we're going to put the salary saving in use. We're not expected to compete next year, and the FA class is weak. And we can't overspend on international signing like we did with Robert either.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 12:06 AM) Sox killed the Yankees on this trade. They only took Frazier to spite the Red Sox, and seeing what JD Martinez fetched there's not a lot of interest in average-ish second half rentals so even if he was only used to grease this deal its worth it. Robertson is nowhere near the big relievers traded last year, you really think his stock improved that much from the Trade That Wasn't which would've netted the Sox Luzardo and Ward? Clarkin or Polo alone are worth Robertson. Kahnle for Rutherford is robbery. Robertson for two C level prospects? While he's not Chapman or even Andrew Miller, you are undervaluing him a lot here, especially with him being one of the few true closers available for trade. There are already several teams called about Robertson, and Yankees were bidding against the Red Sox here. Remember when most people expected a Top 100 prospect for Robertson just a couple days ago? That should have been the target. Let's not move that target to justify this trade. We also traded Kahnle prematurely, given how underwhelming the total value we got in return. There is always a chance he's only a flash in the pan, but his peripherals and stuff says it's unlikely. He's making real improvements to his velocity and and absolutely shatters his previous swinging strike%. Both FB velocity and SwingStr% are among top 10 in the league. FIP and xFIP suggest he's elite. He's actually been unlucky with a BABIP much higher than career norm. There is a real chance he could be Andrew Miller (or close to it), if we waited it, we could have gotten a much better return next year.

564 users on this thread. Is this a record?

The way I see it Frazier for Clarkin, D Rob I expected to get a top 50 prospect. Rutherford is a top 40. But Clippard weighs down the offer. Without Kahnle, we would have slightly won the trade. Let's see if the last name is interesting.