cabiness42

1 in 60 if you accept that the order could be oldest to youngest or youngest to oldest. 1 in 120 if you are looking specifically for one or the other.

I would think BYU and Louisville are the Big 12's next targets if they decide to go from 10 to 12. And who is Missouri kidding? If the SEC wanted them they'd have them by now. I think the SEC will either get West Virginia or stay at 13.

Braves and Cubs were in bottom 10 of MLB in RF OPS, Dodgers were in bottom 10 in LF OPS, and Angels were in bottom 10 in BOTH.

Hitting is way, way down over the past couple years. An .830 OPS in 2011 is a lot better than an .830 OPS in 2006. Only 16 outfielders in all of MLB had both more plate appearances and a better OPS than Carlos in 2011, and most, if not all of those are NOT available.

I realize that I am in the extreme minority, but I believe that Carlos Quentin will be on the Sox 2012 Opening Day Roster. I don't believe that KW can sell, or even wants to sell, to the fan base that they can't afford to pay their second-best hitter $7-8M in 2012 because Jake Peavy, Adam Dunn, and Alex Rios are eating up $50M or whatever. KW will find a way to keep him.

They do have time to expand all rounds to best-of-7. Just eliminate travel days.

It is based on the last two seasons. Explanation below was found on mlbtraderumors: So I suppose that wins and strikeouts knocked Mark down from A to B.

That would be great, and wouldn't you agree that two guys putting up similar numbers to TCQ would be better than one?

OK, I think we are both starting from the assumption that among Quentin, Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd, the Sox can only afford to keep two of them. You are saying the Sox need to keep two pitchers and I say keep one pitcher and Quentin. This is why: We think we know what we will get from Konerko, Ramirez, and AJ/Flowers. That leaves six spots in the lineup. Without Quentin, you need to fill six of those spots with some combination of Dunn, Beckham, Morel, Rios, de Aza, Lillibridge, and Viciedo. You need six of the seven to be productive, which means your margin for error is one player. If you keep Quentin, you now have four stable spots in the lineup and only need five of those seven to be productive, so now your margin for error is two players. On the flip side, keeping only one of the two pitchers means that you likely end up with Stewart or Axelrod in the rotation. So it boils down to Quentin + Stewart or Axelrod compared to one of the guys from the list + Danks or Buehrle. I think the difference between Quentin and whichever guy would end up being the odd man out is so great that it would outweigh the difference between the pitchers. I guess maybe it's partially because Rios and Beckham have been so bad this year I'd rather take my chances with Axelrod than have to count on one of them.

Which is my original point that trading Quentin = giving up on 2012. If that's the best course of action, then I'm OK with that. I just don't want to hear how the best chance for the Sox to win in 2012 involves trading Quentin because it doesn't. If the payroll won't allow keeping Quentin in 2012, then the payroll won't allow winning in 2012.

3.4 average WAR over the past 5 years and 3.8 this year is not elite, but it is far better than mediocre, and he was 4 games over .500 pitching for an offense that scored the 4th fewest runs in the AL. He may not be worth the salary he is going to command, but it's insane to think the 2012 Sox will be better without him than with him.

An OF of Quentin, deAza/Lillibridge, Viciedo has a real good shot at being better offensively than deAza, Lillibridge, Viciedo. By quite a bit. And then you have the potential to play Lillibridge in the IF some if Beckham and/or Morel don't hit next year. I'm sorry, but I just don't see an OF comprised of Viciedo, deAza, Lillibridge, and Rios producing enough offensively to win games unless Dunn, Beckham, and Morel all have massive turnarounds next year.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the Sox having any kind of chance in 2012 if they trade Quentin away. He's the second-best hitter on what is a very pathetic offense.

Yes, I agree that not walking Pujols was pretty dumb. Yet you miss my point that context matters. A manager making one dumb call compared to making the same dumb calls over and over again. Ozzie for the most part managed the pitching staff well. There are a lot of times that he did/did not make a pitching change and I agreed with the decision but it ended up not working out. What made Ozzie such a bad manager was his mis-management of the offensive side of the game. Consistently batting one of the least productive hitters first, and thus giving him the most plate appearances on the team. Consistently calling for bunts when they aren't called for. Continuing to give Dunn and Rios so much playing time (and near the top of the order) when it was clear they weren't going to produce this year. Not replacing the hitting coach even with years' worth of mounting evidence that multiple hitters were underperforming.

Nobody wanted Ozzie fired after one bonehead move. They wanted him fired after the 5,000th bonehead move. When Charlie M gets his tally up to 5,000, he'll likely be gone as well.

To answer your first question, there is no way a 1-loss SEC team gets in over an undefeated BCS conference team, and I'd give it about a 50/50 chance that such a team would get in over Boise State. Boise did go trounce an SEC team, albeit not an elite one, in a virtual road game, so the schedule strength argument is getting harder to make. As for Michigan being 11th, as unlikely as it might be for them to run the table, it's even less likely for Illinois and Kansas State.

Most likely to go undefeated: 1 Boise State 2 Wisconsin 3 Stanford 4 Oklahoma State 5 Alabama 6 LSU 7 Oklahoma 8 Georgia Tech 9 Texas 10 Clemson 11 Michigan 12 Illinois 13 Kansas State I would set the over/under at 3 teams. If I had to put money down, it would be Wisconsin-Stanford in the title game, with Boise absolutely destroying some Big Ten or Pac-12 team in the Rose Bowl.

Aside from the aforementioned excellence on defense, the Bears have had, without question, the league's best special-teams unit nearly every year of Lovie's tenure. That punt return last week was beyond sick. I just wish there had been a mic on the punter right after he booted it left and watched the other 10 guys on his team all running downt he right sideline.

Mark Buehrle vs the Sox lineup could seriously set a record for lowest pitch count ever in a complete game.

Tigers in 3 Rays in 5 Brewers in 5 Phillies in 3 Rays in 6 Phillies in 5 Phillies in 5

1 Dave Martinez 2 Terry Francona 3 Bob Brenley 4 Don Cooper 5 Sandy Alomar

Milwaukee > Arizona > Tampa > Texas > Philly > St. Louis > Detroit > NY

I've been fighting a nasty cold, so I went to bed pretty early last night, when the Rays were still down 7-0 and the Red Sox up 3-2. I was thinking, "Well, maybe the O's can pull it out and there can be a game tomorrow." Per my usual routine, I turn on Mike&Mike in the Morning on ESPN2 while getting ready this morning, and at the exact moment the TV comes on, the scroll on the bottom of the screen tells me that the Rays have won the Wild Card. I was pretty groggy, and it took a minute for my brain to compute that given how things stood when I went to bed.

A poster on a message board bashing KW and defending a departed Sox manager almost to the point of obsession? I think I've seen this show before.

I don't see a scenario where 1) and 2) both happen. If you trade both Danks and Quentin, then you're pretty much giving up on winning in 2012, in which case it makes no sense to re-sign Mark. I think it's more likely that either all three stay or all three are gone. Frankly, I'd be upset if KW chooses any path in between those extremes.