Jose Abreu

Feels like this is actually pretty big news. "There are conversations happening" between the Sox and Murakami's camp re: extension already? I wouldn't have expected the Sox to be willing so soon

I think this is a joke, but in case anyone really believes this: There were a lot of red flags in Mercedes' profile, even in April of 2021. He was outperforming his xwOBA by about 60 points. He didn't hit the ball hard consistently (yes, he was capable of it, but on average he was middle of the pack). His two-strike approach, while cool at first, became very overexposed and ultimately he just didn't have the ability to consistently do damage on pitches in the zone. This was all pretty apparent even when he was hot. On the other hand, the one and only notable red flag with Murakami is that he swings and misses at a very high rate. Unlike Mercedes, he doesn't chase pitches out of the zone, and he hits the ball (very) hard consistently. There's certainly a decent chance Murakami is not the .900-1.000 OPS hitter he has been so far, but I highly doubt he ends up being unworthy of a second contract. He has already been adjusting well to the pitchers' initial adjustments to him, so I tend to lean toward the optimistic side FWIW

As a hitter yes, so far he's Schwarber with a higher walk rate. Contractually no, since Schwarber got his big deal at age 33 and Mune will reach free agency at 28. (And his prior contract was after only 1 year of his now typical production)

I wrote about this in more detail recently. I don't love the Olson and Alonso comps because of the age difference, although there aren't many great comps out there in fairness. Vlad Jr. is on the other extreme since he was younger than Murakami will be when he reaches free agency. I don't know why everyone conveniently ignores that one during these conversations — maybe because Guerrero didn't end up reaching free agency himself, but at this (very early) point he is a much better hitter comparison for Murakami than any of these other guys. A 170 wRC+ is MVP-level good. Again, very early. It will ultimately come down to just how good he is. If he's the hitter we've seen through the first 23 games, he'll be closer to Vlad Jr. and will be long gone. If he's closer to that Naylor tier then he can reasonably be kept even with contract inflation + his off-field value. If he's a Pete Alonso-level hitter, I would be skeptical since he's younger and more valuable off the field. I know Alonso just got his deal, but if he were three years younger this free agency and had an outsized off-field revenue impact, he probably would've gotten more like 8/280

On the flip side of this, if he's really this good (meaning OPS near 1.000, wRC+ around 170, etc.) then his contract is going to be less Pete Alonso and more Vlad Guerrero Jr

The patience has been more impressive to me than the power. I knew he had high walk rates in Japan but I wasn't expecting 21.5% in his first 93 PAs

I know he didn't deserve the job in the first place, but I really don't think it's unfair to say that Acuña needs to at least be a real major leaguer for Getz to deserve to keep his job The "switch hitter" debacle is so embarrassing. To say that not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times makes it clear that he truly didn't know a pretty significant detail about the player he acquired. And that player has been nothing short of awful to boot

He has a lot more power than people think (i.e., enough to keep outfields honest). He isn't Madrigal. I think we'll see it this year

If that were the case, I think the report would've come from Heyman. Reports from an international free agent's own country are usually more accurate than what we get from even the best reporters in the US If Boras was indeed able to leverage the Japanese media in that way and didn't have to use the usual cronies, then more power to him

Thanks for reading 😄

https://www.soxon35th.com/why-the-justin-ishbia-news-is-even-better-than-you-think-for-the-white-sox/

FWIW, in his 100 PAs with the Pirates, Alexander Canario has a .353 xwOBA. Only Tauchman and Slater (in even smaller samples) have higher figures with the White Sox. I've seen his numbers being used as a punchline in here, but he has been very unlucky and has actually had well above-average metrics, just with some particularly bad luck so far (.297 actual wOBA)

It's sad to see how normalized this is. 3 consecutive 100+ loss seasons (assuming 2025 continues to be poor), potentially back-to-back seasons of having the most losses in MLB history, very little progress in the minors from position players, and there's an extremely vocal (albeit small) group here that is just... ok with it. This isn't "just how rebuilds go"

He's having the career I thought Moncada would have

He isn't even a fourth outfielder IMO because a fourth outfielder should be average or better in center field, and he's atrocious out there. I've never seen a center fielder drop as many balls as he has in a season.

That's light... AJSS has been rough this year and Nacho is a 3rd piece at best to me. But I understand that's the best they can probably do without dipping into established players

I get that the Yankees have Spencer Jones even though we all (justifiably) don't like him. But how would the Braves even try to make that happen?

And when he (Mena) immediately adds 2-3 MPH on his fastball after the trade... @ChiSox59is fair in point out Mena's WHIP, but his numbers when you consider both how young he is and that he's pitching in the PCL honestly are not bad. I think he at least has an MLB future, which is more than I can say for Fletcher

Walker as a headliner for Fedde would be underwhelming even beyond the concerns with whether he's fixable. Fedde should net more than a reclamation project headliner

Except a way worse hitter in the minors. Honestly I can't think of a worse fit for both sides. There's plenty of talent there but the White Sox aren't going to get it out

I like the idea, I'm going to be bold and say Robert and Crochet are on the White Sox for the rest of the season (traded in the winter)

Hypothetically, let's say the Grandal contract was for 2 years. They got what they wanted out of him and that money and subsequent bad performance was gone in 2022 and 2023. Would the reallocation of ~$18M per year toward relievers and maybe a better RF have made the 81-81 White Sox a contender, or the 2023 team any different? If the answer is no, how did it weigh the team down?