SCCWS

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 10:11 AM) That's 29 zWAR. There are absolutely areas where they can improve amongst that too internally, with the keys being RF, 4/5 in the rotation, and perhaps C and 3B. The bullpen is going to be projected 2 but that could easily be a 4 or 5 too with progression from young players. Frankly, I see nothing wrong with this, but the only thing I ever really saw wrong with the Steamer projections was Quintana. Last year they projected Boston with a 43 for 2014 and they had one of the worst records in baeball. Fun to look at but a Fortune Teller working the subway station imay be ust as accurate.

QUOTE (South Sider @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 11:53 AM) Also, as much speculation as there is about TB wanting a kings ransom because of his fair contract, is it not possible that TB is looking to get out from under that contract? That contract to a large market team is great, but to a team like TB maybe the term is a little too much? Just food for thought, as it could potentially water down their return a little bit. Dick Vitale has right of refusal on all trades. No way he lets Longoria go.................................

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 03:38 AM) As currently constructed, I think 83-84. Which would mean 10 wins added each of the last 2 years, which is significant. However, I think Hahn will add a C or 3B and maybe another SP before this is over, so I could see it being more like 85-87, depending on the addition. I agree 83-85 wins as currently based. I do not think the AL Central will get a WC. Teams are pretty evenly matched other than Minn. so I think they will beat up on each other.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:09 AM) First, I'd like to say that I'm one who wouldn't have really dreamed of this offseason. I don't love the Samardzija acquisition, because he's in a contract year, has had only one good season (though it was his most recent), and because we lost our most viable 2B candidate to get him. I don't love the Cabrera acquisition because he's a douchebag, has only had three good seasons, one of which was just before PED suspension and the other the same year as that suspension - he isn't a great runner, fielder, or power-hitter, making him highly dependent on his stroke. Nonetheless, the team has definitely gotten better. But how good are we, really? I noticed that, even with Melky added into the calculation, that FanGraphs' WAR projection still has the Sox as 2nd-to-last in the AL. Rather than just assume that they are completely off-base, I wanted to look at exactly what they are projecting. I've tried to make this skimmable. Catcher Total WAR - 1.4 MLB Rank - #29 Tyler Flowers (352 PA) - 0.8 WAR, .208/.272/.362 Adrian Nieto (192 PA) - 0.3 WAR, .223/.287/.337 Clearly, they're probably wrong about Nieto's role. From the looks of the projection for Brantly, we'd have a modest gain by giving him Nieto's at-bats. Still, the main thing here is to have Flowers outperform this projection. We're really weak at this position with not a lot of upside. First Base Total WAR - 3.3 MLB Rank - #8 Jose Abreu (350 PA) - 2.3 WAR, .283/.355/.530 Adam LaRoche (315 PA) - 1.0 WAR, .239/.343/.434 Before you lose your mind, these are only the statistics expected to compiled by the players while playing first base. So their projected ABs for Abreu at DH will up that projection for him. Nonetheless, they're taking a conservative guess at how he'll do in his second year. This is reasonable given how limited his track record is. I don't think they have the playing time mix right at this spot, but it's not very significant as they aren't all that different defensively. Second Base Total WAR - 0.5 MLB Rank - #29 Carlos Sanchez (490 PA) - 0.6 WAR, .259/.306/.341 Leury Garcia (175 PA) - -0.2 WAR, .225/.268/.306 Well, they definitely have the playing time mix wrong here as I think most of us would agree that Leury is a relative longshot to make the roster, let alone get around 20% of the reps at 2B. Even if we gave those reps to Sanchez's projection, we don't move up a single spot in the MLB rankings. There's just nobody with a MLB track record here. Sanchez is the most prepared, arguably, but the projection reflects how little upside he has. Saladino could be in the mix here and arguably possesses higher upside. The Sox may have optimism for Micah here, but his AAA production wasn't there to make me feel confident. Third Base Total WAR - 1.2 MLB Rank - #26 Conor Gillaspie (490 PA) - 1.0 WAR, .255/.319/.393 Matt Davidson (140 PA) - 0.3 WAR, .218/.289/.381 While I don't think Davidson gets those ABs, it shows you that someone is likely to get a lot of reserve ABs at 3B and there aren't any promising candidates. And a lot of us are remembering 1st half Gillaspie and forgetting how dreadful he was down the stretch. We just don't have much at this position unless Gillaspie suddenly finds more consistency at the dish or gets a lot better defensively. A productive platoon partner could make a lot of difference, too. Shortstop Total WAR - 2.4 WAR MLB Rank - #13 Alexei Ramirez (630 PA) - 2.3 WAR, .265/.300/.379 This is about as pessimistic of a projection for Alexei as their system could have produced. He's coming off seasons of 3.1 and 3.3 WAR with similar plate appearance numbers as their projection has. The projection basically has his offense regressing back to where it was in 2013 and his defense to where it was in 2014 (the worst of his career). It also projects a career low in baserunning. Again, pretty pessimistic, though not implausible. Either way, it's a strength of the team, but whether he replicates last year or falls to their projection could play a role in how good the Sox are. Left Field Total WAR - 1.8 MLB Rank - #20 Melky Cabrera (560 PA) - 1.6 WAR, .288/.341/.432 Pretty expensive upgrade from #27 projection to #20 projection at this position. If you think the playing time is low, do know that he's only reached 560 PA three times in nine seasons. Melky had the second-best offensive season of his career last year and had a 2.6 WAR, so this isn't a crazy projection overall. His real downfall is that he's a bad defensive player at this point in his career. Melky's advanced defensive numbers show that he's only a modest improvement on Dayan in LF, with not much difference in range, which is kind of crazy and shows you that he's gotten chubby and possibly lazy. If Melky stays where he was last year or does something more like 2012, that would be a big boost. Center Field Total WAR - 2.2 MLB Rank - #20 Adam Eaton (595 PA) - 2.0 WAR, .273/.343/.379 As is typical, second-year players aren't assumed to replicate success. They see him taking a step back towards the numbers he posted with the D-Backs in 2013. His 2014 WAR was 2.7, for comparison's sake. This is another case of a place where we have upside depending on whether he avoids injuries and/or gets even better at the plate. Their more pessimistic projection seems to be based on a lower BABIP, which was .359 last year. In the minors, Eaton posted BABIPs of .446, .430, .379, .345, .375, and .432. I'd say it wouldn't be crazy for him to continue to have high BABIP which might color your own projections differently. Right Field Total WAR - 1.3 MLB Rank - #22 Avisail Garcia (490 PA) - 1.1 WAR, .273/.317/.426 JB Shuck/Dayan Viciedo/Jordan Danks combined for 0.2 WAR in 210 additional PA. Two things to note: Avi wasn't healthy, so they don't yet endow him with a projection of good health. Avi also hasn't proven himself at the plate, so he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt there. They're also pretty optimistic on his defense, which has been awful thus far. Avi is a big wildcard, I don't know what we'll get from him. This is a position where we can say "at least we have upside" because I could see us getting as much as 4.0 WAR from this spot which would be huge. We could also end up demoting the kid at some point for all we know. Designated Hitter Total WAR - 2.3 MLB Rank - #4 Adam LaRoche (280 PA) - 0.6 WAR, .239/.343/.434 Jose Abreu (245 PA) - 1.4 WAR, .283/.355/.530 As mentioned before, I think LaRoche gets a larger portion of the PA here than they have projected, but it doesn't really matter. See comments on the 1Bmen. Starting Pitchers Total WAR - 10.5 MLB Rank - #8 Chris Sale (188 IP) - 4.6 WAR, 3.02 ERA/3.07 FIP Jeff Samardzija (188 IP) - 3.0 WAR, 3.93 ERA/3.69 FIP Jose Quintana (179 IP) - 2.4 WAR, 3.95 ERA/3.89 FIP Hector Noesi (139 IP) - 0.2 WAR, 5.04 ERA/5.02 FIP John Danks (129 IP) - 0.3 WAR, 5.01 ERA/4.89 FIP Nothing too crazy here. Seems too pessimistic on Quintana for me, though. By season, Q has put up 3.76 ERA/4.23 FIP, 3.51/3.82, and 3.32/2.81. Odd to project his worst season or at least worst since rookie season now. I think some of it has to do with the fact that his HR rate was cut in half last year compared to the previous two seasons, suggesting some luck. I think he'll pitch pretty similarly to last year. I also don't think both Noesi and Danks will do that poorly. It is important, though, to keep in mind that these projections are averages of the many possible seasons these guys could have. So this accounts for the possibility that Noesi/Danks post 7.00 ERA and things like that. The weight of bad possibilities compared to good ones is probably tilted towards bad for those guys. Either way, this is a good rotation! If we have the 8th best output from our starters next year, we'll all be happy. We were at 11 last season. Relief Pitchers Total WAR - 2.0 MLB Rank - #14 David Robertson (65 IP) - 1.6 WAR, 2.82 ERA/2.78 FIP Zach Duke (65 IP) - 0.7 WAR, 3.44 ERA/3.48 FIP Zach Putnam (55 IP) - 0.1 WAR, 4.15 ERA/4.01 FIP Jake Petricka (55 IP) - 0.1 WAR, 4.17 ERA/4.01 FIP Javy Guerra (45 IP) - -0.1 WAR, 4.49 ERA/4.49 FIP Daniel Webb (40 IP) - 0.0 WAR, 4.25 ERA/4.11 FIP Dan Jennings (35 IP) - 0.0 WAR, 4.18 ERA/4.13 FIP Once again, nothing crazy. Relievers are hard to project and some of the guys we'll be counting on based on their production last year basically came out of nowhere (Putnam and Petricka especially, to a lesser extent Guerra but he didn't do that great and we aren't really depending on him). Jennings might stand out to some, but bear in mind that he's never thrown a ton of innings and has posted stats that seem very regression-worthy. It won't be the end of the world if he posts those kind of numbers. We were at #25 from relievers last season, FWIW. I also don't have an easy to access this, but last I looked into it I believe we had the worst MLB record with leads in 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. Those should definitely improve. Final thoughts Once again, our total projection is to be the second-worst team in the AL. With that said, we are also ahead of 7 NL teams, which says something about the league-wide balance of power (and the difference the DH makes to this calculation). It's also worth noting that where we are (#22, 28.8 WAR) and 4th best team in MLB is less than 10 WAR. It isn't easy to add 10 WAR to your projection, but it isn't at all crazy for the projections to ultimately be off by that far. It's also worth directing your attention to FanGraphs' own article about how projections are not predictions. Projections are our best guesses and in the case of places like FanGraphs, they are always subject to change, whether that is via new players or new information - like if the players start outperforming the initial projections. Nonetheless, despite our improvements, the numbers clearly show that we have to have a lot of things go right. A lot of our best players are relatively unproven. We have some wide-open question mark positions. We can't afford to have many guys underperform their expectations and we have to have several guys outperform expectations. I wouldn't be placing any bets on the Sox just yet, even if we are a lot more exciting. Basically this is a guess no better than a fortune teller can give us in Chicago.

QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 12:37 PM) No reason to be p!ssy about it but the Cubs are having a very good offseason. Gotta give credit where credit is due. This would worry me much more if it were the Tigers, Tribe, Royals or Twins doing what the Cubs have done. Regardless they're in a different league so at the end of the day who cares. I agree. Also very happy Lester is out of Boston although they have so many trade pieces I am sure they will get pitching. But after Sale, Lester may be the best lefty in MLB. Let's not forget Maddon is moving from AL to NL so it will be interesting to see how many wins his baseball acumen gets for Cubs.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 07:49 PM) Yeah and 2+2= 3 For us out of town White Sox fans you have to tell us more about his rep in Chicago. Most baseball fans outside of Chicago know Robertson but the Shark is just some guy whose name no one can pronounce. Till the Cubs traded him to Oakland, I thought he was a reliever.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 04:28 PM) Yes. Shark is pretty much an icon in Chicago at this point between his ND and Cubs stints. I don't think many baseball players can directly put butts in the seats for us (that mostly comes indirectly from being good) but I do believe he can. There's a lot more talk about this move among the casuals then there would have been if we signed Scherzer or Lester (not that he's better). I still had to explain to a lot of people today who Jose Quintana was though. Interesting posting. I would be amazed if Shark puts people in the seats. Now I am a White Sox fan who splits time between Boston and Tampa during the season. In casual conversation, I have never heard a Red Sox fan say they were going to a game because Lester was pitching. Pitchers in New England do not sell tickets, the team does. If Abreu did not have a positive impact on attendance, my gut is only winning is going to solve the problem.

Breslow started 2014 on DL and then stunk for Red Sox. Red Sox turned him down for 4Mil. I would pass

QUOTE (dmbjeff @ Dec 6, 2014 -> 12:40 AM) I have always wondered why they don't flip flop the order in which pitchers pitch. RP type guys starting a game and going a few innings and letting the SP type guys finish out ball games. It does seem like the bullpen's of today really get rocked at the time when they have the most pressure and most on the line in terms of having a shot to finish out and win a game. I suppose you can argue that a RP just isn't as good typically as a starter, but often times, I think the pressure is their largest detriment to them being successful. Perhaps SP would be able to handle the pressure better at the end of the game than most RP's. Your idea seems pretty simple I think. You pitch your 7th inning guy in the first, your 8th in the 2nd and your starter 3-8 and bring in the closer for the 9th. Now what happens when the starter struggles in the 7th?? Now you are stuck bringing in the "other relief pitchers" trying to get to the closer. So then you pitch the other guys in the first and 2nd and hold 7th and 8th guys just in case the starter stumbles?? Bottom line it seems less effective than what they do today.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Dec 4, 2014 -> 03:01 PM) Which turns into a great argument for the relocation thread. Havana White Sox in the near futire.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Dec 4, 2014 -> 08:20 AM) Does Brandon Moss make sense? Put him in LF, bats left but he's more than a power hitter than a contact guy. I am a long time White Sox fan living in New England during baseball season. I have posted on this site numerous times that I think one of the main problems with White Sox attendance is corporate season tickets. In New England , thousands of companies have season tickets. When I was working, vendors were always offering tickets to Red Sox games. When I travelled to Chicago in 2002 as part of an acquisition team of a large Chicago company, I was offered a coprorate ticket to a Cubs game. These tickets provide free passes to fans which help generate interest in a team and also creates a demand for getting tickets in advance since game day tickets are hard to find w/o scalping.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 1, 2014 -> 05:06 PM) Derek Jeter had a .976 career fielding percentage. Ozzie Smith had a .978 career fielding percentage. Derek Jeter is comparable to Ozzie Smith. I do know the Top 10 second basemen all finished higher than .975. So a minor leaguer fielding at .950 has a long way to go.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 1, 2014 -> 03:29 PM) What on earth are you talking about? He made 14 errors in under 60 games in the ML. His minor league FP is .954 over 4 seasons. Conor Gillaspie is 950 at the ML level over 5 years. Semien is comparable to Conor Gillaspie defensively.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 1, 2014 -> 01:29 PM) I don't disagree with any of this, and frankly none of these would deter me from signing those players given the right circumstances, just that those "MLB pitches thrown" are misleading as hell. Just because a guy hasn't thrown a lot of pitches in the MLB because he came up late or started in the bullpen doesn't simply negate the effect the previous pitching experience has had on his arm. Frankly, some of those pitches were "saved" when he was throwing out of the bullpen, but those pitches don't include side work or warm up sessions nor does it include the ramped up intensity of those innings. Samardzija seems like he has smooth mechanics and he was arguably better in the 2nd half than the 1st half last year (which has been a concern), but there are a lot of other things worth considering here. Personally, I wouldn't give up Anderson nor Semien for him, but I absolutely love both players. I'd give up any other minor leaguer in the system eligible to be traded for him at this point. I just don't think trading Anderson or Semien bodes well for the long-term health of the organization because it seems to be that those two both provide very good value long-term in multiple different ways. Semien has so far shown to be a a below average infielder in majors and an average one in minors. Now maybe he can be a 4th outfielder but unless he makes a major improvment with his defense, his value is not great.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 28, 2014 -> 03:17 AM) Alright, I'll throw out a massive trade that will never happen. Let's go with a crazy 3-way.... White Sox acquire: OF Mookie Betts, SP Ian Kennedy Red Sox acquire: SP Frank Montas, SP Chris Bassit, SP Tyson Ross, RP Nate Jones, SS Franchy Cordero Padres acquire: 3B Conor Gillaspie, OF Yoenis Cespedes White Sox trade: 3B Conor Gillaspie, SP Frank Montas, SP Chris Bassit, RP Nate Jones Red Sox trade: OF Yoenis Cespedes, OF Mookie Betts Padres trade: SP Ian Kennedy, SP Tyson Ross, SS Franchy Cordero And then the Sox sign McCarthy for 3 yr/$36M with a 4th year team option for $15M, $3M buy out. I am assuming you are not that familiar with Betts. He played 90% of his minor league games at 2B. He came up when Pedroia was hurt and showed a solid bat Unfortunately Pedroia is blocking him. So the Red Sox moved him to the outfield when Pedroia came back. He was just average in outfield since he was learning the position at ML level. If he is traded it will probably be as a 2B for value purposes. Otherwise Red Sox may send him back to AAA to learn CF. He struggled w throws from RF. Very solid hitter but also very small but used the Fenway wall to his advantage. .

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 26, 2014 -> 12:51 PM) And let's also not forget that the Dodgers just lost an important player on the left side of their infield with Ramirez going to Boston. It could put a little more pressure on them to bid up for Alexei. Not necessarily. It depends what the Red Sox plan w Ramierez. If they think he can play SS for a few years, they could be taking offers on Bogaerts . Then Alexei may take a step down in value.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 26, 2014 -> 03:13 AM) Bradley Jr. over Victorino any day. Old broken down OF's are a step in the wrong direction. At least Bradley, Jr. has youth , wonderful D which the Sox need badly and speed and the "potential " to hit. Still rather try to pry Holt loose. Maybe he'd cost less than JBJ despite having great value to the Red Sox as a super-utility guy. On that team he will get nowhere near the amount of AB's he had last year. Maybe in a humanitarian gesture the Red Sox let him go to realize his potential rather than keep him as the supersub. I don't see the Red Sox trading Holt. He will be their super utility in that he can play IF and OF. The Red Sox probably have the best lineup in baseball now but they have not added pitching and their defense is very average. They will trade Cespedes for some pitching. White Sox may still be interested in Nava and he could be reasonably priced. Victorino is damaged goods at a high price. I woule love to see Hahn take a shot on Bradley. the tools are all their except so far he has not hit in majors.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 23, 2014 -> 08:55 AM) Over the past 2 seasons, Lester has a 10.4 WAR, Q has a 9.0 WAR. Over the next 6 seasons, Q is owed at most, around $40 million, Lester will get about $100 million or more more than that. Q has 2 buyout years at $1 million if something goes wrong. Lester will be quaranteed all his money. Q is 5 years younger. I always thought Alexei was underappreciated, but the thought that anyone here would be willing to trade this guy, when he gives you the performance of a star, and allows the White Sox to spend big money elsewhere because he gets paid so little, makes me believe he is perhaps the most under appreciated White Sox ever. I have seen it posted here he is a decent #2 maybe a three on a championship team. He was 9th in baseball in pitching WAR, and got paid like a reclimation project. There really is no realistic way the White Sox would trade him. I am sure they would take Mike Trout, but that isn't happening. I also think Q is pretty much untouchable. In reagrds to Lester, his 3-0 w a sub.50 ERA in 2 World Series puts him pretty much at the top of the food chain. He may be as good as any lefthander not named Sale in baseball. Lester will get more than $100 Mil. My guess is $130-140 for 5-6 years.

QUOTE (MDWhiteSoxFan @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 01:26 PM) My earlier post I sounded pretty sore on the signing... Don't want to sound like I didn't like it at all. I just hope we get someone that can platoon with him. Plus a 2 year deal is good for the team with his age. Solid signing just wish we could've landed someone that could hit both RHP and LHP equally well I guess. As someone said the main reason they decided against bringing him back was Zimmerman can't play 3rd anymore so they had no where to play Laroche. Living in O's and Nats ville he was definitely loved by the fans. A veteran club leader is another attractive part of this signing. http://www.masnsports.com/byron-kerr/2014/...-nationals.html

The best scenario would be the Sox starters are good enough that Rodon can stay in the minors all season and get called up in September. He can enjoy watching the 2015 Sox in the World Series and then join the rotation in spring 2016.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 16, 2014 -> 12:06 AM) As far as Hahn having 100% control, Kenny has thrown a veto on a Peavy to Boston trade that did not involve the Tigers. I believe it was DA who alluded to it earlier in the thread and I got confirmation from someone within the organization that it was the case. Hahn wanted Middlebrooks and Williams either didn't like Middlebrooks or thought there was a better offer out there. That same person, who is in baseball ops, told me "Hahn is the acting GM and handles the day-to-day processes but KW has the final word and will be in Reinsdorf's ear if he feels the need to be." When I continued to probe on this topic he said something like "Hahn is very much involved in all organizational moves, but Kenny still has the juice and definitely misses the day-to-day part of being a GM" and went on to say that KW is operating under immunity. Now whether you want to take my word for it, is on you. you can take what I say with a grain of salt and consider it bulls*** and I wouldn't blame you as I am just another quasi-anonymous message board poster. The rumor was very strong in the Boston media as well that Middlebrooks was the guy being offered for Peavy. But eventually the Reed/Davidson was probably not a better decision than Middlebrooks for filling the 3B hole. I would still prefer Gillaspie over Middlebrooks at this stage.

Obviously the media is constantly running around looking for quotes/rumors at the winter meetings. So far the lack of movement probably has some frustrated already. But I have seen several quotes from Kenny Williams so I guess he is attending. I am wondering what his role is. I hope Hahn has 100% control of the roster and is not still reliant on KW.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 02:43 PM) man I keep on coming back to this post. I biggest burning question is at what salary will it take to sign him. Boston papers said minimum $40 mil for 5 years so I am guessing $10 Mil per year when bidding ends

Let's not forget that the 2014 White Sox finished middle of the pack in the AL in batting but the lower end in pitching and defense. Now an improved bullpen and the addition of Rodon should improve the pitching as long as Hahn can make some solid additions to the pen. But the Sox have to improve the defense as well. Sticking players in positions for their offense may still result in another poor season. It is okay to use 2015 as a rebuilding year if you think a player will grow into a position. But you are much better experimenting at the AAA level than costing ML games and it may help the young player as well from a pressure standpoint.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 08:31 PM) And from that list....Rasmus, Melky Cabrera, Morse, Torii Hunter, Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, good luck choosing from among them. M.Cabrera, Morse, Hunter (even at his age) and Cruz (except for the 2nd half decline) can obviously hit, but then your defense is not taking a step forward. We're building the anti-Royals, a diametrically opposed opposite if we were to trade Alexei. Markakis can sort of hit and sort of field, but not superior by any stretch at either, especially for the price tag. Then you have the Rasmus Enigma. Boston is peddling 3 corner outfielders ( Victorino, Craig and Cespedes but they want piching in return. Article in Providence paper today indicates Rasmus is probably the top FA corner since Markakis is probably returning to Baltimore. So Hahn may have to go trade route. Maybe Alexei and a prospect or two could bring a corner from someone.