OmarComing25

QUOTE (shipps @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 03:27 PM) Is Arrieta finally coming down to earth? Cubs look like they will get swept by the Cards. 7-0 in the 6th. He gave up only 1 ER today.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 02:02 PM) Have you ever watched the show Cutthroat Kitchen? Where the contestants start out with an amount of money which they then use to bid for the opportunity to make their opponents deal with all sorts of disadvantages or handicaps? For example, you can make your opponent cook his meal over candlelight as opposed to the professional range that you are allowed to utilize. Or perhaps your opponent has to cook his meal while riding a tricycle while you are allowed to cook entirely unencumbered. At the end of the allotted cooking time, a judge comes in, and, completely unaware of what took place in regards to who bid what or who had to cook with what disadvantages, they simply judge the the final dishes, as if all things were completely equal. You are essentially playing the role of judge in this competition, and you're only viewing the final dishes. You aren't considering what went in to actually producing the outcomes you are evaluating. You're simply tasting the dish afterwards and saying, "Yes, it makes sense that he lost because this dish is pretty mediocre." What Tony is saying is that he actually watched Javy pitch. And in this analogy, Javy had all kinds of chances to cook without riding the f***ing tricycle and still managed to lose all the time. Aren't we all the judges in this competition? There's so much we don't know. We weren't in Javy's head, we have no idea what he went through on his path to the big leagues, what adversity he had to overcome, what days he had to pitch over discomfort or some kind of physical ailment or when he was feeling 100% healthy. I watched him pitch too, he was as frustrating as anyone, because it was clear he had a talented arm, but there are dozens of examples of pitchers nearly every year with talented arms who also never live up to their potentials. Since there's so much we don't know, we can only make judgments on the information we do know, like the judge had to.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 02:04 PM) Ok. Since I really hadn't looked at Strasburg and Quintana until you brought it up, I need to change my answer. the two are almost identical in all stats except for 3, wins, xFIP and the pitching stat i think is the most telling of performance SIERA. Strasburg has a big lead in all three of those. Giving Quintana credit for being in the AL, i need to go with Strasburg as having the better season. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/5/11...n-fly-ball-rate Quintana has pretty much always been below average in HR/FB rate (8.1% for his career, just 6.5% over the last three seasons), especially in the last three years, which xFIP normalizes. Strasburg on the other hand has always been above the league average (11.6% for his career, 12.8% over the last three seasons), as he has been a below-average contact-manager in his career and given up a lot of loud contact. Using xFIP in this comparison isn't the best, as these guys are both examples of pitchers who are consistently above or below that normalized homerun rate. Strasburg's homerun rate is nearly double Quintana's over the last three seasons, so it's not really fair to normalize their rates.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 01:56 PM) Because this offense has shown it is more than capable of huge innings all of the time. When the bunts have been called from the bench, they have been called at times where scoring a run could win the game. The only questionable one was when Melky bunted in NY. But second and third one out scores 1 run more often than first and second and no out. It scores more than 1 slightly less. But 1 would have been big there. All Frazier had to do was put the ball in play and not pop it up. The others people complain about were hitters doing it on their own. Yes, but that assumes a successful bunt. Factor in the probability of the bunt failing to get down, and it's less, unless you have a hitter at the plate that can get the bunt down at a 90% success rate.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 01:34 PM) I don't believe you are looking at this correctly. I don't believe he is arguing that Javy's body of work is not representative of his actual win-loss record. What I believe is being argued is that Javy's statistical body of work and win-loss record is not representative of his actual pitching ability. I'm not exactly sure what you mean here. Is the argument that Vazquez didn't live up to his talent level? I think everyone would agree there, but that happens to most pitchers, so I'm not sure how looking at win-loss record is a good indicator of this.

QUOTE (Tony @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:58 AM) This is more a debate with people taking the extreme approach to everything. "I never look at wins, they are a meaningless stat, it's not important." Why do you have to take it that far? If I'm a talent evaluator and I'm looking at a pitcher, their amount of wins is not something I'm going to look at right off the bat. That's obvious. However, you'd be foolish not to at least use the stat for some sort of reference. The best example I can think of is Javy Vazquez. Without sounding too much like Hawk, that guy didn't know how to win a ballgame. Anyone that uses analytics will tell you that ONLY using analytics is a very bad idea, or only using some analytics. The more information, the better. It's to help guide you into making an accurate assessment of a player. Curiosity got the best of me so I looked it up. Vazquez had a career 105 ERA+, so he was 5% better than the average pitcher. Over his career, the average runs scored/game in the league he pitched in was 4.67 runs/game, while the average run support he received was 4.49 runs/game, or 4% less than the league average. He ended up 165-160, which is pretty much exactly what you would expect from those numbers. Yes it seems obvious and needless to point out, as it would be difficult for his W-L record to turn out a different way given those numbers, I'm just illustrating a point. There's nothing strange in Vazquez's W-L record, it's exactly what it should be.

QUOTE (Tony @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 12:06 PM) HOT TAKE ALERT. Jesus. Of course that's not the case. Nearly every analytic will show he is very strong starting pitcher that has been snake bit the last few years. And no where will see you see me arguing that wins are an important stat. But I'm also not going to totally throw the W statistic out the window just because some feel it's outdated. It has a use, and it's up to user reading the stats to decide what value he wants to put on that stat. That make sense, Skip? OK, and what value do they have to you? How is saying Vazquez "didn't know how to win" any less of a hot take?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 12:04 PM) Could be. How many 2 out hits do pitchers give up and people think "he just can't get that last out" In all sports there is a mental aspect to finishing. Being highly involved in running there is a huge mental game in racing vs. running. He's actually pitched at his best in high leverage situations and with runners on base this year.

QUOTE (Tony @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:58 AM) This is more a debate with people taking the extreme approach to everything. "I never look at wins, they are a meaningless stat, it's not important." Why do you have to take it that far? If I'm a talent evaluator and I'm looking at a pitcher, their amount of wins is not something I'm going to look at right off the bat. That's obvious. However, you'd be foolish not to at least use the stat for some sort of reference. The best example I can think of is Javy Vazquez. Without sounding too much like Hawk, that guy didn't know how to win a ballgame. Anyone that uses analytics will tell you that ONLY using analytics is a very bad idea, or only using some analytics. The more information, the better. It's to help guide you into making an accurate assessment of a player. So Quintana just doesn't know how to win a ballgame?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:53 AM) I'm saying the wins needs to be considered. I'm not saying it is the only factor or even the most important. I just disagree that it is meaningless and shouldn't be part of the process. What kind of importance should we give them? Because even something small like 5% importance should give Strasburg the edge here.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:47 AM) Agreed. If you agree that Quintana has been slightly better, then why all the arguments in favor of W-L record? Their numbers are close enough that if pitchers' wins mattered even a little bit then that should give Strasburg the edge, considering his record is way better than Quintana's.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:35 AM) It is not completely out of his control. all of the variables you described are true. however, he can control the other offense to large degree. He can pitch deep into games to give his team a chance. He can keep the lesser pitchers in the bullpen. If he is the best pitcher in the game, he should be able to do these things. however, you are correct where he cannot control everything but he does have some control. This is why wins are part of the equation not the only variable. Who has been the better pitcher this year, Jose Quintana or Stephen Strasburg?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:22 AM) It may be. My comment was about the "wins don't matter." He has had a great year and could be the best pitcher but the lack of wins does need to be considered. But since Quintana does go deep enough into games, then why should the lack of run support need to be considered? He has no control over it. In 2006, Jon Garland finished with a better record than he did in 2005, even though his ERA rose by more than a run. Why should he get credit for that?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:20 AM) I'm not blaming him for it. However, he could be contributing to the losses by not being in the game and giving the offense a chance to score when he is pitching. As stated in the other post I made, my only point is that wins shouldn't be ignored. They do play a part in the effectiveness of a starting pitcher. I've already pointed out that the criticism that he doesn't go deep enough into games is wrong. Unless you think Jake Arrieta, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Noah Syndergaard, Jose Fernandez, Marco Estrada and Cole Hamels (among many others) also don't go deep enough into games.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:17 AM) Anything is possible. This is why you need to look at everything and not discount the wins. I haven't followed Hammel's games as I don't follow the Cubs. Maybe he is winning so many and pitching awful because of a great offense. My only point is that people who totally dismiss wins are wrong. You need to factor them in. They aren't the only variable in the equation but should be included in the equation. The problem is that the variable you're criticizing Quintana for isn't even true.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 11:05 AM) True. But he is becoming for being such an outlier in this category that he is proving to be an exception. Also, if he pitched deeper into games he may have some of those wins. So Quintana's mere presence on the mound causes his teammates to score less for him than the other pitchers on the team? It's certainly a bizarre trend, especially with the turnover on the offense the last few years, but to blame Quintana for it is just silly.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 10:58 AM) You should care. Is part of the reason he is the best pitcher by the metrics due to his only pitching 5 to 6 innings a game? This in turn puts his team at a big disadvantage to put lesser talented pitchers in the game, put more stress on the bullpen and cause his team to lose more games because the more talented pitcher has less of an effect on the outcome of the game. Many people talk about having better hitters hit more often by hitting higher in the order. wouldn't this same idea apply to the pitcher? wouldn't you want the better pitchers to pitch deeper into the game and have more of an effect on the outcome? This line of thinking is one reason why starting pitchers are pitching less and IMHO are actually getting injured more. They are burning themselves out by using all stressful pitches. Quintana is averaging the same number of innings per start as Arrieta and Strasburg this year (6.6 innings per start), he has a lower ERA (by 0.27) than Strasburg yet Strasburg is 10-0 and Quintana is 5-7. That alone should tell how meaningless W-L record is. He's going deep enough into games, that's not the problem. He's 12th in the AL in IP/Start, and 0.1 of an inning/start from being 6th. The idea that he doesn't go deep enough is a complete exaggeration.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 01:21 PM) Was it acceptable when Pods would lead off, get on base and then Tadahito would hit over to the right side to advance him to third? Essentially a bunt - except swinging? I don't know, I feel that most of the time - as long as they can execute the bunt - that I prefer it. Not with Melky -- but generally. Hitting it to the right side isn't giving away an out, there's still a chance it goes for a hit, much better than the bunt anyway. Also using the 2005 offense as an example of good offense isn't necessarily a good idea, they were below-average and finished 9th in the AL in runs scored.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 12:23 PM) He wouldn't be close and prepare for an all star snub possibility too. I love Q, but get real. Are you saying this just because of his record? I thought Felix winning in 2010 showed that voters don't care about record anymore. He probably wouldn't win but to say it wouldn't be close is absurd.

I hated on LeBron plenty after The Decision but looking back on it I don't understand why I did. Hell the Cavs don't win a title this year if The Decision doesn't happen anyway, so really it was the best thing that could have happened for Cleveland. The guy has been in the spotlight since he was a teenager, 99% of people would be insufferable egotistical douchebags in that scenario, and while LeBron is arrogant (and really you need to be arrogant to be the best), I agree with iamshack that's he actually pretty humble considering the circumstances. Yeah he flops and whines to the refs, but I'm struggling right now to think of a star in the NBA that doesn't do exactly the same thing. They all do it. Really happy for him and for Cleveland for finally getting that title.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jun 1, 2016 -> 02:59 PM) I definitely think the approach is the issue. I don't think it's a coincidence that his best stretch of the season (last week of April through the first week of May) he was swinging at 76% of strikes. Outside of that stretch he's swung at 63% of strikes and has struggled accordingly. Seeing a lot more inside fastballs is also a big issue, but I think the not swinging at strikes thing is definitely the biggest. In 2014 he swung at even more junk than he does now, but he also swung at nearly every pitch in the zone. He needs to go back to doing that. The increase in soft-hit% that you're seeing is mostly coming from him hitting weaker grounders than the last couple years, but I think that's caused him to lose maybe about 4-5 singles, so I don't think it's a big difference-maker. Over the past two weeks Abreu is hitting .360/.404/.640. Not to continue repeating myself, but over that stretch he's still swinging at a lot of pitches outside the zone. Difference is he's swung at 79.5% of strikes in that time. Forget everything else, that's always been the issue, and it always will IMO. The league never figured him out, he just needs to swing at strikes. When he does he hits like the Abreu we know, when he doesn't he struggles. It's that simple, really.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 2, 2016 -> 07:31 AM) Neither option is very good. Latos: 4.02 ERA, 5.28 FIP, .268 BABIP Gonzalez 4.09 ERA, FIP 4.54, BABIP .327 In Comparison Shields: 4.28 ERA 4.41 FIP. Last start did hurt a lot. Maybe, but I'll take a 4.50 FIP/ERA from the 5th starter. I don't think it's that close, Gonzalez is better, if we acquire an SP it should be to replace Latos.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 1, 2016 -> 04:53 PM) I feel so relieved. Feels like a giant weight has been lifted off the shoulders, finally won a series again. Let's just forget May ever happened.

C'mon Matt!

2 more c'mon Albers.