Price rising for Sale and Q

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but let me break it down if it is.

 

The Sox hold a top 3 pitcher in all of the game for 3 years @ $38M (last 2 are team options which increases value in case of injury). If Chris Sale were a free agent this winter, he'd likely sign a 7 or 8 year deal worth with an AAV north of $30M. Think about that.

 

The Sox also hold a top 30 pitcher in the game (I tend to think he is better than that, but going conservative) for the next 4 years at $37.85M (last 2 are again team options). If Jose Quintana were a free agent this winter, he'd likely sign at least a 5 year deal worth no less than $100M (AAV of $20M), which again, is probably conservative. Think about that.

 

The best free agent SP this winter are, in no particular order: Andrew Casher, Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, Colby Lewis, Ivan Nova, and Edinson Volquez. The next tier is Brett Anderson, Bartolo Colon, RA Dicky, Doug Fister, Jake Peavy and Jered Weaver. Those are the top arms available, and the best one is maybe a #3 starter. These dudes are about to get PAID. Think about that.

 

The Sox are in an absolutely wonderful position. Yes, it probably makes sense to trade these guys and start this rebuild. But they don't HAVE TO trade them. The Sox can sit back and ask for the moon, and they should. If you don't get what you want, you keep these guys who aren't breaking the bank and who's values are not going to diminish. Maybe no one will pay what it takes to get a Chris Sale - I mean when has a legitimate ace signed for 3 years at a 1/3 of what he'd get on the open market on an AAV-basis ever been traded? Its never happened. If you have to hold on to Sale for another year because the offers aren't what you want, you do that.

 

That is without even mentioning their other extremely valuable assets in Adam Eaton and Carlos Rodon. The Sox are in a very unique position. I understand why some don't have faith that this front office has what it takes to execute this correctly. But this is the same front office that has given us each and every one of these assets. The fact that Sale and Quintana weren't traded last July when the market seemed primed was in all liklihood because they are asking for the moon. Be patient - the Sox absolutely NEED to hit home runs with these trades. The time will come, and hopefully when it does, it is because the Sox finally got what they are asking for, and not because they settled.

 

 

Chris Sale's value due to his contract is the equivalent to a franchise QB on a cheap deal in the NFL. It's sky high. With what David Price is making and bombing in the playoffs, Sale is absolutely worth JBJ(or some young impact bat)+++. Quintana isn't that far behind him in my opinion. This off-season could re-shape this organization for the next 5-6 seasons if they play their cards right.

[Lillian]

He was a 4.9 WAR player last year (to Sale's 5.2) and is under control for 1 more year. I agree he's less valuable, but it's closer than you think.

 

I don't quite understand how similar WAR numbers, compiled during a full season, can be compared when it comes down to the Post Season.

If you had to choose between substituting one of Boston's starters for Sale, versus replacing JB Jr., with some lesser centerfielder, in game one of the Post season, would it really be a difficult choice? My mind is open, but that doesn't make sense to me.

[Eminor3rd]

Chris Sale's value due to his contract is the equivalent to a franchise QB on a cheap deal in the NFL.

 

This is not true. Even Trout isn't worth a franchise QB. Baseball players simply do not have the same degree of impact individually.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

This is not true. Even Trout isn't worth a franchise QB. Baseball players simply do not have the same degree of impact individually.

Tell that to Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs

[southsider2k5]

Yankees, not in the playoffs.

Boston, first round loss.

Rangers, first round loss.

Dodgers, one game away from a first round loss.

 

If the White Sox really want to sell, everything is coming up Millhouse so far.

[Jose Abreu]

Everything is lining up perfectly. We need to take advantage.

[oldsox]

I don't think either of us really wants to have them mess this up by having them trade for whatever they can get. My point is mostly that a team like Boston is already a playoff caliber team. The White Sox haven't been close in years. They're the ones who need to make something happen way more than the Red Sox.

 

The problem with trading for a Jackie Bradley Jr. type is that his value is very nearly that of Sale, and you might not be able to get much more out of the Red Sox other than him. I'm not sure that's the trade they need to be making right now, but it could make for an interesting retool on the fly situation.

Disagree on value of Bradley. If Bosox trade him, they wouldn't miss a beat. They would just slide Benintendi in there. I have no doubt that they consider him much more valuable than Bradley.

 

On another note, this right handed pitcher Kopech supposedly throws harder than Chapman. Has hit 104.

Edited October 11, 2016 by oldsox

[SoxAce]

On another note, this right handed pitcher Kopech supposedly throws harder than Chapman. Has hit 104.

 

Chapman throws 105.

[scotty22hotty]

For Sales/Qs value I would just use fangraphs projected WAR value for them then compare it against the prospects offered. They have a new KATOH+ forecast that tries to predict a prospects future 6 year mlb WAR value. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-improved...h-top-100-list/

You also have to factor in contract value, market demand, time value, and on top of that I would expect the trade to be at least 50% lopsided in the favor of the Sox.

Since Sale has a 17 WAR projection I would expect offers to begin at least with a 25 KATOH+ WAR return.

 

It's not that hard for most GMs to evaluate a fair trade with all the tools out there today...

 

As for acquiring a player with solid MLB experience like Betts or Bradley it would be counter productive if you're rebuilding since you wouldn't be getting max possible value in return. Trading Sale/Q only makes sense if you're getting 6 year prospects in return.

[elrockinMT]

Pretty really. Either teams pay the price we ask for sale and/or Quintana or we don't trade. We don't have to dial down on our demands. I personally would rather keep both

[Lillian]

I don't quite understand how similar WAR numbers, compiled during a full season, can be compared when it comes down to the Post Season.

If you had to choose between substituting one of Boston's starters for Sale, versus replacing JB Jr., with some lesser centerfielder, in game one of the Post season, would it really be a difficult choice? My mind is open, but that doesn't make sense to me.

 

In further researching this question, I can't seem to find the answer. WAR is calculated over an entire season. If a pitcher only appears in approximately 20% of the games, yet is able to produce the same wins over replacement as a position player, that would seem to indicate that he is much more valuable, in any given single game. That is consistent with everything else, which we know about the game, i.e.; "pitching is 80% of the game" and "Good pitching will always stop good hitting".

 

Therefore, as I said in my previous post; A starter like Sale is much more valuable and critical, in a single post season game, than a player like Jackie Bradley Jr., even though they have approximately the same WAR. Could someone please clarify this for me?

Edited October 11, 2016 by Lillian

[SCCWS]

Disagree on value of Bradley. If Bosox trade him, they wouldn't miss a beat. They would just slide Benintendi in there. I have no doubt that they consider him much more valuable than Bradley.

 

On another note, this right handed pitcher Kopech supposedly throws harder than Chapman. Has hit 104.

 

Bradley is an elite CF and Benintendi is still a work in progress. From what I have seen, Benintendi seems to have a good arm but has been wild from left. Not sure how his arm is in center. Betts was a very good CF but Bradley ousted him from there. If they traded Bradley, which I doubt, Betts might be better than Benintendi.

Edited October 11, 2016 by SCCWS

[gatnom]

Disagree on value of Bradley. If Bosox trade him, they wouldn't miss a beat. They would just slide Benintendi in there. I have no doubt that they consider him much more valuable than Bradley.

 

On another note, this right handed pitcher Kopech supposedly throws harder than Chapman. Has hit 104.

 

I agree that they would trade him for Sale. I just don't think you're going to get a mega package with a guy like Benintendi or Moncada coming with. The reality is that if you really wanted to do a full tear down, you could flip him to another team for a nice load of prospects by himself, making him a good centerpiece regardless.

 

 

[Jose Abreu]

Bradley fell off hard from a hitting standpoint late this season. Definitely a warning flag, in terms of his value.

[Flash Tizzle]

Everything is lining up perfectly. We need to take advantage.

Exactly, and there should be no excuse otherwise. FA market is terrible, Q and/or Sale have tremendous value, and because it's the offseason everyone (whether they'll compete or not for 17') is potentially in play.

 

I also believe they should act aggressively and not wait out late into the offseason to trade one/both. Every FA scrub taken off the market is another team seeking different options. Hahn and his team should start piecing together trade packages immediately. I believe we're all aware the importance of this offseason. A well crafted trade (or two) involving our starters can lay the groundwork for this team's success.

[Eminor3rd]

Tell that to Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs

 

Now if only he could play every day, you might have a argument.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Now if only he could play every day, you might have a argument.

A great pitcher can completely dominate a game like a great QB can dominate a game. They both can carry their teams. s*** just look at that Royals Giants World Series with MadBum.

[shysocks]

In further researching this question, I can't seem to find the answer. WAR is calculated over an entire season. If a pitcher only appears in approximately 20% of the games, yet is able to produce the same wins over replacement as a position player, that would seem to indicate that he is much more valuable, in any given single game. That is consistent with everything else, which we know about the game, i.e.; "pitching is 80% of the game" and "Good pitching will always stop good hitting".

 

Therefore, as I said in my previous post; A starter like Sale is much more valuable and critical, in a single post season game, than a player like Jackie Bradley Jr., even though they have approximately the same WAR. Could someone please clarify this for me?

First paragraph is basically right. Pitchers don't play in every game but when they do, they have control over 25-30 plate appearances, while position players only get 4-5 plus whatever defensive opportunities they see. The starting pitcher is usually the team's most important player in a given game. An ace also has greater influence in October relative to the regular season because while he can usually pitch only 2 out of every 10 games, with the extra off days in the playoffs he can go 2 or even 3 out of 7.

 

The only thing your previous post (which I've copied below for reference) didn't touch on is that while you get Sale instead of another SP in game 1, you'd also have to replace JB Jr. with the lesser center fielder for every other game in the series that Sale doesn't pitch.

 

I don't quite understand how similar WAR numbers, compiled during a full season, can be compared when it comes down to the Post Season.

If you had to choose between substituting one of Boston's starters for Sale, versus replacing JB Jr., with some lesser centerfielder, in game one of the Post season, would it really be a difficult choice? My mind is open, but that doesn't make sense to me.

[Eminor3rd]

A great pitcher can completely dominate a game like a great QB can dominate a game. They both can carry their teams. s*** just look at that Royals Giants World Series with MadBum.

 

Yes, and MadBum pitched in 2.5 of the 7 games. He pitched 21 of the 63 innings. Despite a historic performance and atypical overuse due to desperation, Bumgarner was only involved in one-third of the innings in that series. That would be like if Tom Brady could on play in the first quarter and a half of the Super Bowl.

 

And when you think about the rest of the year, it's even less. Bumgarner made 33 starts in 2014, which is 20% of the teams 162 games. What if Tom Brady only played in 3.25 games every season?

 

It just doesn't add up. It's no knock on MadBum or Chris Sale, it's just a fact that we fans have to accept. As sexy as an ace is, one player simply cannot dominate in baseball the way a QB or NBA star can, and that informs the prices that teams are going to pay.

[Eminor3rd]

In further researching this question, I can't seem to find the answer. WAR is calculated over an entire season. If a pitcher only appears in approximately 20% of the games, yet is able to produce the same wins over replacement as a position player, that would seem to indicate that he is much more valuable, in any given single game. That is consistent with everything else, which we know about the game, i.e.; "pitching is 80% of the game" and "Good pitching will always stop good hitting".

 

Therefore, as I said in my previous post; A starter like Sale is much more valuable and critical, in a single post season game, than a player like Jackie Bradley Jr., even though they have approximately the same WAR. Could someone please clarify this for me?

 

You're correct that a starter (typically) has more impact than a position player in a single game, but that's not what they were arguing about. One guy said "Sale is worth way more than JBJ," and another guy said "actually their value is closer than you think," which (at least in 2016) is a true statement.

[southsider2k5]

Re: The Red Sox, I can see them trading one of their OF, I can't see them trading both Benetiendi AND JBJ, unless they think Moncada (and obviously isn't in the deal) is ready to play out there today. If they trade both, they create a hole out there. They already have a large hole to fill in Ortiz.

 

I think the White Sox would be able to get one of Ben and JBJ for a deal to make sense for both sides. Personally I could see the White Sox settling around JBJ, Moncada, and a couple of pitchers. Koepech is obviously a guy who will get their attention, plus a guy like Groome can be dealt after the World Series as well. If not you could sub a guy like Devers for one of the pitchers.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Re: The Red Sox, I can see them trading one of their OF, I can't see them trading both Benetiendi AND JBJ, unless they think Moncada (and obviously isn't in the deal) is ready to play out there today. If they trade both, they create a hole out there. They already have a large hole to fill in Ortiz.

 

I think the White Sox would be able to get one of Ben and JBJ for a deal to make sense for both sides. Personally I could see the White Sox settling around JBJ, Moncada, and a couple of pitchers. Koepech is obviously a guy who will get their attention, plus a guy like Groome can be dealt after the World Series as well. If not you could sub a guy like Devers for one of the pitchers.

 

 

I don't want Bradley with 4 years of control. I want players with 6 controlled years.

[ChiSox59]

I agree that they would trade him for Sale. I just don't think you're going to get a mega package with a guy like Benintendi or Moncada coming with. The reality is that if you really wanted to do a full tear down, you could flip him to another team for a nice load of prospects by himself, making him a good centerpiece regardless.

 

The Sox are going to want at least 1-2 ML ready or young MLB players for Sale. They're not trading him for 5-6 prospects in the traditional sense.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I don't want Bradley with 4 years of control. I want players with 6 controlled years.

 

I know what people want, but at the same time, I think it is obvious the Sox want one established position player in the deal.

[ChiSox59]

Re: The Red Sox, I can see them trading one of their OF, I can't see them trading both Benetiendi AND JBJ, unless they think Moncada (and obviously isn't in the deal) is ready to play out there today. If they trade both, they create a hole out there. They already have a large hole to fill in Ortiz.

 

I think the White Sox would be able to get one of Ben and JBJ for a deal to make sense for both sides. Personally I could see the White Sox settling around JBJ, Moncada, and a couple of pitchers. Koepech is obviously a guy who will get their attention, plus a guy like Groome can be dealt after the World Series as well. If not you could sub a guy like Devers for one of the pitchers.

 

I assume that the Red Sox wouldn't WANT to trade both JBJ and Benintendi, but they do have Holt who can play the OF everyday. Plus they could sign a Reddick or Cespedes, or could get a Melky back in a bigger trade involving Sale.

 

 

Sale and Melky

 

JBJ, Benintendi, Devers, Kopech and Rodriguez