The only issue I have with what you said is that the peripheral argument is weak, because you're not providing any evidence for that claim. You're saying that Soria must suck, otherwise the Royals wouldn't have traded him for so little. That might be true, but that doesn't invalidate evidence to the contrary.

As I said, he was replacement level in 2016, his next worse season was 2015, trending downward, then 2017 age 33 season highest WAR in 7 years, best k-rate for a full season in 8 years. Age 34 projections have him very similar to 2016, replacement level. He gave up 1 homer last year. Previously HR had become a problem. That could rear it's ugly head in his new home park.

 

If the White Sox were actually trying to win, the optimism wouldn't be so great, despite all these peripherals.

 

We can all argue until the cows come home. I wouldn't want Soria on the mound if it was a game the White Sox had to win. And a lot would have to happen for that opinion to change.

Edited January 5, 20188 yr by Dick Allen

This is a great point and it's especially true for relievers, who pitch fewer innings than I think people consciously realize. James Shields probably pitched 50 great innings last year, but it was the other 100 bad ones that made him a disaster. Well, many relievers pitch ONLY 50 innings in a year. What does it say about them going forward?

 

Compounding the issue is that by the times you get that 150-200 IP of sample on a guy, three or four years have passed, and you're no longer evaluating the same guy. This is why relievers are so hard to predict, and it's not unreasonable for a guy to buck a trend suddenly if you see some underlying signs that don't match the previous season.

You have me entirely confused.

 

A smaller sample size increases the possibility of an average being skewed by a number of anomalous outings. If I am relying on an average that is more easily skewed, than it makes that average less informative.

 

While every outing is important, if I am team, I want to know what kind of pitcher a guy is the vast majority of the time and work on eliminating those few instances where he isn’t pitching like he does the remainder of the time.

 

 

As I said, he was replacement level in 2016, his next worse season was 2015, trending downward, then 2017 age 33 season highest WAR in 7 years, best k-rate for a full season in 8 years. Age 34 projections have him very similar to 2016, replacement level. He gave up 1 homer last year. Previously HR had become a problem. That could rear it's ugly head in his new home park.

 

If the White Sox were actually trying to win, the optimism wouldn't be so great, despite all these peripherals.

 

Huh? Steamer has him at .5 fWAR. For a quick and dirty comp Kahnle is projected at .7 fWAR. Soria is a quality MLB reliever. It's really not good practice to use year by year WAR totals for relievers. The sample is too small. Just look at totals and projections.

Examples?

 

If Soria was thought of as highly around MLB as he is on this board, not only would the Royals have been able to trade him and not eat money, they wouldn't have had to include a valuable piece with him. They had to do both.

 

 

If you are looking for specific examples with exactly same set of circumstances you won't find them from me. I mean I'm sure they are out there but I'm not a walking encyclopedia of trades and non tenders.

 

If we are going for guys with roughly the same set of circumstances well one guy who stands out for me recently is Drew Storen.

 

But also a big reason he was moved more then anything is the Royals are rebuilding. They don't want to pay guys 9 million to setup on a rebuilding team. My guess also is their owner didn't want to carry a large payroll either. Rumor is they are also looking to dump Herrara as well. Does it make sense to do so coming off a down year? Probably not. But he's scheduled to make close to 9 million in arb so he must go.

 

Honestly, I wouldn't mind circling back to Herrara as well if the KCR will just give him away.

Just to provide some context on how he performed based on leverage:

 

FIP

Low: 1.81

Med: 2.60

High: 2.28

 

wOBA

Low: .232

Med: .277

High: .278

 

BABIP

Low: .296

Med: .328

High: .364

 

LOB %

Low: 76.2%

Med: 93.5%

High: 30.4%

 

At face value, it seems like he got pretty unlucky in high leverage situations which would explain the amount of blown saves.

Soria was a Top 25 reliever in MLB in 2017 by fWAR and a Top 75 reliever in MLB in 2017 by bWAR. If Kansas City traded him because they think he's bad, then I wouldn't trust their talent evaluation staff much.

If you are looking for specific examples with exactly same set of circumstances you won't find them from me. I mean I'm sure they are out there but I'm not a walking encyclopedia of trades and non tenders.

 

If we are going for guys with roughly the same set of circumstances well one guy who stands out for me recently is Drew Storen.

 

But also a big reason he was moved more then anything is the Royals are rebuilding. They don't want to pay guys 9 million to setup on a rebuilding team. My guess also is their owner didn't want to carry a large payroll either. Rumor is they are also looking to dump Herrara as well. Does it make sense to do so coming off a down year? Probably not. But he's scheduled to make close to 9 million in arb so he must go.

 

Honestly, I wouldn't mind circling back to Herrara as well if the KCR will just give him away.

 

We essentially given a free solid LH reliever to take Soria. We had to give up a guy that we would have let anyone in MLB have for $100k a month ago. If we got another deal like that, you are danged right the White Sox should look at it. Hell they should be asking how much prospect stock the Dodgers would be willing to spend to take Kemp off of their hands. Hell they should be looking around MLB for situations of the same ilk in other teams.

We essentially given a free solid LH reliever to take Soria. We had to give up a guy that we would have let anyone in MLB have for $100k a month ago. If we got another deal like that, you are danged right the White Sox should look at it. Hell they should be asking how much prospect stock the Dodgers would be willing to spend to take Kemp off of their hands. Hell they should be looking around MLB for situations of the same ilk in other teams.

 

Agreed.

 

I would much rather make these type of moves then go after guys in FA in the shortterm at least. This should have been the focus all offseason instead of Machado and Yelich. You can probably complete the rebuild by the end of next year if he makes some excellent trades at the deadline and drafts well.

 

We essentially given a free solid LH reliever to take Soria. We had to give up a guy that we would have let anyone in MLB have for $100k a month ago. If we got another deal like that, you are danged right the White Sox should look at it. Hell they should be asking how much prospect stock the Dodgers would be willing to spend to take Kemp off of their hands. Hell they should be looking around MLB for situations of the same ilk in other teams.

 

No kidding. Leverage what they have and that's payroll space and a "free" season to evaluate and pump and dump or just dump. Hahn has been on fire with these type of moves.

 

Most of the Royals fan reaction seems to be "we sold way too low here" and if we are that desperate to clear payroll we're in trouble.

Perfect trade. Doesnt mstter if our bullpen is great this year but we needed a couple vets to round it out since our rotation is young and we gave up a nice but replaceable asset and didnt spend a ton of $. Cant ask for more than that folks

No kidding. Leverage what they have and that's payroll space and a "free" season to evaluate and pump and dump or just dump. Hahn has been on fire with these type of moves.

 

Most of the Royals fan reaction seems to be "we sold way too low here" and if we are that desperate to clear payroll we're in trouble.

 

Guys who come to mind...

 

Martin Prado, Kelvin Herrera, Matt Kemp, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Jacob Ellsbury,...

Guys who come to mind...

 

Martin Prado, Kelvin Herrera, Matt Kemp, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Jacob Ellsbury,...

 

Yea keep talking, especially with the Dodgers.

Guys who come to mind...

 

Martin Prado, Kelvin Herrera, Matt Kemp, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Jacob Ellsbury,...

 

So if the Sox took those 3 Dodgers, how many of the Dodgers Top 10 prospects would they come with?

No kidding. Leverage what they have and that's payroll space and a "free" season to evaluate and pump and dump or just dump. Hahn has been on fire with these type of moves.

 

Most of the Royals fan reaction seems to be "we sold way too low here" and if we are that desperate to clear payroll we're in trouble.

 

I mean I sort of understand the owners sentiment. He has been rolling with a 160 ish payroll as a small market club. Why continue to maintain those numbers in a rebuild. The more I think about the less likely it's to clear money for Hosmer. This is probably a directive from Moore to cut payroll. Don't be surprised if Duffy and Herrara are moved as well.

 

The problem is pretty much all their top talent are FA and those that remain are coming off down years with the exception of Duffy. Hard to see them getting much for Herrara. Kennedy and Gordon are untradable. Hammel was awful.

 

 

So if the Sox took those 3 Dodgers, how many of the Dodgers Top 10 prospects would they come with?

 

Only one of those guys is a Dodger today.

I mean I sort of understand the owners sentiment. He has been rolling with a 160 ish payroll as a small market club. Why continue to maintain those numbers in a rebuild. The more I think about the less likely it's to clear money for Hosmer. This is probably a directive from Moore to cut payroll. Don't be surprised if Duffy and Herrara are moved as well.

 

The problem is pretty much all their top talent are FA and those that remain are coming off down years with the exception of Duffy. Hard to see them getting much for Herrara. Kennedy and Gordon are untradable. Hammel was awful.

 

It's been said quite a bit but it's really nice that just as the Sox look like they have a really solid foundation starting probably in 2019 or 2020 the Tigers and Royals are going to be absolutely awful. Minny we'll see but the Sox are going to make a lot of hay against bad Detroit and KC teams.

Only one of those guys is a Dodger today.

 

Right, forgot McCarthy and Kazmir went to Atlanta in the Kemp deal. In that case, same question, replacing 3 Dodgers with 2 Braves.

Right, forgot McCarthy and Kazmir went to Atlanta in the Kemp deal. In that case, same question, replacing 3 Dodgers with 2 Braves.

 

If the White Sox took on the full salaries of both Kazmir and McCarthy, that would be just under $30 million for 2018. Let me put it this way.... for $26 million, the White Sox got Luis Robert. It would have to be a pretty big return.

Greg, is this you?

If the White Sox took on the full salaries of both Kazmir and McCarthy, that would be just under $30 million for 2018. Let me put it this way.... for $26 million, the White Sox got Luis Robert. It would have to be a pretty big return.

Teams aren't going to give you the elite prospects for taking these guys and even if they did it would be less money in the bank to go after Machado if that is a real possibility at this point.

Don’t post much but this thread baffles med. people are really complaining about getting two relievers that may or may not be good, in a rebuild year? If they do well they get traded furthering the rebuild and if they don’t, who cares because it’s a rebuild year? And all it cost was Jake Peter?

 

I’d say Rick did fine here.

Good move by Rick. More possible trade pieces come July.

If the White Sox took on the full salaries of both Kazmir and McCarthy, that would be just under $30 million for 2018. Let me put it this way.... for $26 million, the White Sox got Luis Robert. It would have to be a pretty big return.

 

Gohara?

Don’t post much but this thread baffles med. people are really complaining about getting two relievers that may or may not be good, in a rebuild year? If they do well they get traded furthering the rebuild and if they don’t, who cares because it’s a rebuild year? And all it cost was Jake Peter?

 

I’d say Rick did fine here.

 

People just like to b**** and moan or be contratian. I get it to a degree but there's no downside here Peter was never, ever going to contribute in a big role on a Sox team with Moncada at 2B and there is no long term commitment to either of these relievers.

People just like to b**** and moan or be contratian. I get it to a degree but there's no downside here Peter was never, ever going to contribute in a big role on a Sox team with Moncada at 2B and there is no long term commitment to either of these relievers.