Trust the process

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Judging by what guys like Abreu are going for on the trade and free agent markets, impossible. 

What other tanking teams are auctioning off a consistent 30-40 HR/100+ guy?

Moustakas will be out there, but who else?

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What other tanking teams are auctioning off a consistent 30-40 HR/100+ guy?

Moustakas will be out there, but who else?

The Sox have been willing to deal Abreu for over a year now.

[oldsox]

3 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Was reading an article recently about "Should the Rockies made a trade for Jose Abreu" and got to thinking what an acceptable deal for each side could look like. 

Rodgers is very likely to be off limits, but I could see a deal being worked around Colton Welker + Peter Lambert for Abreu making sense. Again, no clue if either side would be interested, but it seems fair from a value standpoint. 

It would have to include Rodgers, IMO.

[oldsox]

46 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What about if we trade Abreu for something valuable, THEN get him back for the 2020 season?

How's that?

You gotta be kidding.

[caulfield12]

Then how much are you willing to pay Abreu for a contract extension after 2019?

You're going to cut his salary?

He's at $13 million for 2018, number as yet undetermined for 2019. 

They're kind of in a quandary here.  Hahn needs to be at LEAST SOMEWHAT competitive in 2019, around low 70's in wins...yet what is the point of Jose Abreu on the team next year (or Avi Garcia) when they're just soaking up resources and playing time that could be going to younger players.

If we are terrible AGAIN in 2019, then that really is going to make getting the best television/local broadcasting rights deal...quite difficult, unless they sign just a one year deal and put all their chips in on 2020.

Of course, we have no clue who they will sign in free agency after this season...which will be another significant factor (or not).

[Heads22]

I'll believe Abreu is worth more to another team than us when I see it.

[greg775]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

What about if we trade Abreu for something valuable, THEN get him back for the 2020 season?

How's that?

How often does that happen?

[southsider2k5]

39 minutes ago, oldsox said:

It would have to include Rodgers, IMO.

Hence why Jose Abreu is still a White Sox.

[wrathofhahn]

The problem with Abreu is he is a declining asset. If he isn't moved at the deadline I doubt he is ever moved.

Look at what Detroit got for J martinez. It's hard enough to get value for a 1B/DH a guy whose also in his last year? Forget about it.

I think we can probably get a top 100 guy and someone just outside for him. I'd personally still do the deal especially with Davidson here and Berger looking like a future 1B/DH.

 

[reiks12]

Im also for trading abreu because im not sure how bought in i am on his clubhouse impact. Yes he is a leader and has a cuban connection, but id rather have a solid prospect or 2 at the cost of moncadas 'adjustment'

[caulfield12]

25 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

The problem with Abreu is he is a declining asset. If he isn't moved at the deadline I doubt he is ever moved.

Look at what Detroit got for J martinez. It's hard enough to get value for a 1B/DH a guy whose also in his last year? Forget about it.

I think we can probably get a top 100 guy and someone just outside for him. I'd personally still do the deal especially with Davidson here and Berger looking like a future 1B/DH.

 

They have control of Abreu through 2019...of course, another factor here is Jose's "pride" and getting him off the field of play, which should improve 1B from a defensive standpoint significantly.

 

Troy Tulowitzi, "the best player like ever," yet another argument for NOT putting all your eggs in one basket (see Belle, Albert)

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769629-the-best-player-like-ever-the-painful-story-of-troy-tulowitzki?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[WBWSF]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

Me too. I LOVE Cooper's "mean" comments all the time. I do love the guy. He doesn't suffer fools. He'd hate a guy like Greg. Kudos to Coop.

That said ... the reason some fans (and I'm glad to see a lot of board newcomers join me in hating on Hahn and Kenny) doesn't embrace the rebuild or trust the process is it didn't have to be this painful. OK, some of you want THE Nos. 1 or 2 pick which we appear destined for the next 2 years. Some of us don't think there's that big a difference between 2 and 8 or 10. Granted, the idea of No. 1 or 2 now does intrigue me, since our team blows so much. However some of us contend the baseball draft is much different than NFL or NBA. Way more busts. Finally to conclude this point, some of us would prefer the Sox did not save all this cash last offseason. Had they acquired Moustakas, which was easily attainable; had they acquired GOOD relievers not ones named Soria; had they acquired one good veteran starter not named Shields. All it was gonna cost is a few bucks and it wouldn't be THIS painful. We might even sniff .500 which means sniffing the playoffs. All it meant was to spend like a big-city team should spend. So do I trust the process? No. If you held a gun to my head, I would say Eloy, Moncada, Timmy and Kopech are can't miss prospects. I have a good feeling about Cease. But do I think Robert, Rutherford, Burger, Collins, et. all are locks to be good to great, no. If they are great, I will celebrate. But I have the right to be a demanding fan. Kudos to 2005! Bah humbug to the crap we've endured the last few seasons, including this one.

Believe me, you're not alone in your opinions of this ownership/management  team of the White Sox. I've been a season ticket holder for years and I haven't been as down on this team/ownership/management since the late 1980s when JR almost moved the team to Florida. Most of the games I've been to have had the team losing and losing badly. The atmosphere has been depressing. The upper deck has been closed at most of these games because of the sparse crowds. They announced a crowd of 13,000 tickets sold last Thursday night. They didn't have 2,000 fans at the game. A lot of the season ticket holders aren't even showing up at the games. Recently MLB executive Tony Clark made a statement  about certain teams not trying to win and he didn't think it was fair to the fans of those teams. I don't know what if anything MLB can do about situations like this but I wish they would do something. I never thought the White Sox would have a team as bad as the 1970 White Sox (they lost 106 games) but Unless things really change I can see this present team  being as bad as that one.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

Believe me, you're not alone in your opinions of this ownership/management  team of the White Sox. I've been a season ticket holder for years and I haven't been as down on this team/ownership/management since the late 1980s when JR almost moved the team to Florida. Most of the games I've been to have had the team losing and losing badly. The atmosphere has been depressing. The upper deck has been closed at most of these games because of the sparse crowds. They announced a crowd of 13,000 tickets sold last Thursday night. They didn't have 2,000 fans at the game. A lot of the season ticket holders aren't even showing up at the games. Recently MLB executive Tony Clark made a statement  about certain teams not trying to win and he didn't think it was fair to the fans of those teams. I don't know what if anything MLB can do about situations like this but I wish they would do something. I never thought the White Sox would have a team as bad as the 1970 White Sox (they lost 106 games) but Unless things really change I can see this present team  being as bad as that one.

And what would you have done to make them a playoff team in 2017, 2018 or this year, if you had inherited the 2016 team at the end of that disappointing campaign (after starting off 23-10 and sacrificing the top SS prospect in baseball for James Shields)...?

Even if you bumped the payroll up by $50 million, it's not a sure thing you get a playoff team...except having the ability to do it in hindsight.

Even teams like the Royals, Cardinals, Rangers, Red Sox and Giants have struggled to plug gaping holes in their major league teams on a consistent, year-to-year basis through Free Agency.

 

Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana would be depreciated/depreciating assets.  The two best players we have produced (fWAR-wise) in Escobar and Semien are still on other teams.  You take back the Thompson/Frazier deal, well...you have Trayce Thompson, Montas and Micah Johnson on your roster.  That won't help you much.  Keep Tyler Flowers?  Well, that would have worked out "okay" for one year.  You want to sign Shark to a long-term extension?  Good luck with that one.

You'd still have a team with a core of Abreu, Sale, Tim Anderson and Rodon...and not much else, but an absolutely TERRIBLE farm system.  Your rotation would be...let's see, MiGo/Shields/Rodon (injured)/Shark/???.

So let's see you spend $50 million in that 2016-17 offseason FA market without the benefit of already knowing the results.

The problem is no GM can be right more than 65% of the time on FA's, and the actual success rate ($$$ to fWAR production) is a LOT lower than that, many (are/have been) better than Hahn in this area but still not even a break-even proposition.

 

 

 

[WBWSF]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And what would you have done to make them a playoff team in 2017, 2018 or this year, if you had inherited the 2016 team at the end of that disappointing campaign (after starting off 23-10 and sacrificing the top SS prospect in baseball for James Shields)...?

Even if you bumped the payroll up by $50 million, it's not a sure thing you get a playoff team...except having the ability to do it in hindsight.

Even teams like the Royals, Cardinals, Rangers, Red Sox and Giants have struggled to plug gaping holes in their major league teams on a consistent, year-to-year basis through Free Agency.

 

Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana would be depreciated/depreciating assets.  The two best players we have produced (fWAR-wise) in Escobar and Semien are still on other teams.  You take back the Thompson/Frazier deal, well...you have Trayce Thompson, Montas and Micah Johnson on your roster.  That won't help you much.  Keep Tyler Flowers?  Well, that would have worked out "okay" for one year.  You want to sign Shark to a long-term extension?  Good luck with that one.

You'd still have a team with a core of Abreu, Sale, Tim Anderson and Rodon...and not much else, but an absolutely TERRIBLE farm system.  Your rotation would be...let's see, MiGo/Shields/Rodon (injured)/Shark/???.

So let's see you spend $50 million in that 2016-17 offseason FA market without the benefit of already knowing the results.

The problem is no GM can be right more than 65% of the time on FA's, and the actual success rate ($$$ to fWAR production) is a LOT lower than that, many (are/have been) better than Hahn in this area but still not even a break-even proposition.

One of the posters here (CaliSoxFanViaSWSide) posted something a few days ago where he thought it would have been better for the White Sox to sign a few free agents this  past off season. He mentioned signing Moustakas  and JD Martinez would have been good additions to the 2018 White Sox. Having these 2 players on the team would make it a better destination for future free agents.  Arietta signed a 3 year contract with the Phillies. I would rather have him on this team pitching instead of these stiffs we have now.  If anything signing these  3 players would have made this team watchable which it isn't now. As I stated previously in another post the team should have never traded Robertson and Jennings last season. I would much rather have those 2 in the bullpen than Soria and Bummer.

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

 

Fine, but Arrieta would be completely fried by 2020, when we REALLY needed him to be the 2014/15 version...and which is never coming back.

Would seeing the current version of Arrieta encourage more attendance?  Well, what did Shark do for that?  Or even Chris Sale?

Moustakas is still going to be available next offseason (and I was one of those advocating the same thing, signing Moustakas and Dyson to man CF for two years while waiting for Luis Robert)...this year, he would have prevented Sanchez and Davidson from getting playing time, and then still would have left at the end of the year in all likelihood.

JD Martinez was never going to come to Chicago unless we hugely overpaid for him...compared to what Boston eventually ponied up.  Once again, our offense would be better (as it stands, we're around 16th or MLB average) but you're investing a lot of money in a player who won't be really important until the second half of 2019.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/j.d.-martinez-8690/

Basically, you'd be paying Martinez $70 million for 2018/19/20, with him moving one year away from his true prime each year you advance his contract.  Then you'd have him for $38.7 million for 2021/22, when he'd be useful but also clearly declining at age 33/34.

Is there any guarantee he's not another more powerful version of Melky Cabrera?

It would have taken $115-125 million to find out.

And we have a better/cheaper version of Martinez in Eloy Jimenez at AA already.

 

The problem with the 2018 team, more than anything...is pitching (both starting and bullpen) and defense.   Let's say you now have a 72-78 win team, but what does that actually do for fan interest?   PROBABLY NOTHING.  AT ALL. 

Meanwhile, you've committed 1/4th of your future FA spending/payroll for a player in Martinez who will be replicated by the eventual production of Jimenez, Burger, Sheets and Adolfo at a fraction of the cost.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[greg775]

To those of you who want to trade Abreu: My guess is you are worried about his age pure and simple. Anybody over 30 nowadays is over the hill in baseball jargon. It's sad, really. New ideas about tanking and players being on the decline after 30 are very bizarre. NFL? Yes. It used to be in baseball you could hit until you were 38-42 in many cases. Julio Franco?? Many Hall of Famers. Now? We have a good portion of our fan base who would be thrilled to dump Abreu. I hate to tell you folks: If we ever win the WS we are going to need a few White Sox veterans. We're not going to win it with all young-uns. And it'd help to have some guys who have worn the Sox uniform for a while.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, greg775 said:

To those of you who want to trade Abreu: My guess is you are worried about his age pure and simple. Anybody over 30 nowadays is over the hill in baseball jargon. It's sad, really. New ideas about tanking and players being on the decline after 30 are very bizarre. NFL? Yes. It used to be in baseball you could hit until you were 38-42 in many cases. Julio Franco?? Many Hall of Famers. Now? We have a good portion of our fan base who would be thrilled to dump Abreu. I hate to tell you folks: If we ever win the WS we are going to need a few White Sox veterans. We're not going to win it with all young-uns. And it'd help to have some guys who have worn the Sox uniform for a while.

Greg loves Adam LaRoche's age 35 season.

[greg775]

58 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

Believe me, you're not alone in your opinions of this ownership/management  team of the White Sox. I've been a season ticket holder for years and I haven't been as down on this team/ownership/management since the late 1980s when JR almost moved the team to Florida. Most of the games I've been to have had the team losing and losing badly. The atmosphere has been depressing. The upper deck has been closed at most of these games because of the sparse crowds. They announced a crowd of 13,000 tickets sold last Thursday night. They didn't have 2,000 fans at the game. A lot of the season ticket holders aren't even showing up at the games. Recently MLB executive Tony Clark made a statement  about certain teams not trying to win and he didn't think it was fair to the fans of those teams. I don't know what if anything MLB can do about situations like this but I wish they would do something. I never thought the White Sox would have a team as bad as the 1970 White Sox (they lost 106 games) but Unless things really change I can see this present team  being as bad as that one.

I think we're going to win 8-9 games a month for a total of about 48-54 victories.

[caulfield12]

WHO IS THRILLED TO DUMP ABREU?

One thing we wouldn't be thrilled about is watching Jake Arrieta and JD Martinez take up $200 million in payroll space and then age into oblivion when we actually needed them to perform in 2020...hamstringing our ability to add the (young/er) talent we really needed at that critical juncture.

We tried that in 2011.  In 2014.  2015 (Samardzija).  2016 (Frazier). ETC. ETC. ETC.

 

Greg, imagine the price of hot dogs, sodas, beers and burgers if you had an attendance bump to 20,000 per game (from 16K) but nearly doubled the team payroll...?

Edited May 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[greg775]

57 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Greg, imagine the price of hot dogs, sodas, beers and burgers if you had an attendance bump to 20,000 per game (from 16K) but nearly doubled the team payroll...?

I mean how high can it go? At this rate, laugh if you will but in five years parking will be 60-70 dollars for a fricking baseball game; a hotdog will be 20 dollars; a burger 25 dollars; a beer 20-25 dollars; a soft drink probably stay about 10 dollars; a cotton candy 15 dollars. It's coming. I really don't understand how baseball teams make the kind of profits we read about. I thought ESPN was going broke laying off people. It's a very weird dynamic. Baseball teams are worth so much money, yet the average person certainly can't afford to attend a game today much less in five years when those prices I mentioned figure to be reality.

[greg775]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Greg loves Adam LaRoche's age 35 season.

I blame our scouts for picking up so many lousy players since 2006. It's an amazing dynamic that some fans don't want to rush players, so here's your window of stardom: 25 years old (maybe 24 with some players) to 29. That's four seasons in which a fan thinks a player should be raking. Any younger than 24 and we've rushed the player. Any player older than 30? Definitely DO NOT sign him to anything but a one-year deal.

Edited May 8, 2018 by greg775

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, greg775 said:

To those of you who want to trade Abreu: My guess is you are worried about his age pure and simple. Anybody over 30 nowadays is over the hill in baseball jargon. It's sad, really. New ideas about tanking and players being on the decline after 30 are very bizarre. NFL? Yes. It used to be in baseball you could hit until you were 38-42 in many cases. Julio Franco?? Many Hall of Famers. Now? We have a good portion of our fan base who would be thrilled to dump Abreu. I hate to tell you folks: If we ever win the WS we are going to need a few White Sox veterans. We're not going to win it with all young-uns. And it'd help to have some guys who have worn the Sox uniform for a while.

While I agree people exaggerate the post 30 decline, let’s not ignore these little things called steroids. The aging curve you’re referring does not exactly exist anymore.

[southsider2k5]

10 hours ago, WBWSF said:

Believe me, you're not alone in your opinions of this ownership/management  team of the White Sox. I've been a season ticket holder for years and I haven't been as down on this team/ownership/management since the late 1980s when JR almost moved the team to Florida. Most of the games I've been to have had the team losing and losing badly. The atmosphere has been depressing. The upper deck has been closed at most of these games because of the sparse crowds. They announced a crowd of 13,000 tickets sold last Thursday night. They didn't have 2,000 fans at the game. A lot of the season ticket holders aren't even showing up at the games. Recently MLB executive Tony Clark made a statement  about certain teams not trying to win and he didn't think it was fair to the fans of those teams. I don't know what if anything MLB can do about situations like this but I wish they would do something. I never thought the White Sox would have a team as bad as the 1970 White Sox (they lost 106 games) but Unless things really change I can see this present team  being as bad as that one.

This team is not going to lose 106 games. That is ridiculous. 

[Dick Allen]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This team is not going to lose 106 games. That is ridiculous. 

The problem is, some team(s) will. Losing 95 games anymore might get you the 7th or 8th pick. 

 

Is being that awful worth the opportunity to draft Carson Fulmer? 

 

I am not one of these people anymore, but the White Sox should do something for the premium ticketholders, like lock in their rates for when they are good. They aren't the business expense write off they used to be. Some people are shelling out tens of thousands of dollars for this crap. Someone watching on TV in Ottumwa probably couldn't care less, but these people are paying some freight. 

Edited May 8, 2018 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The problem is, some team(s) will. Losing 95 games anymore might get you the 7th or 8th pick. 

 

Is being that awful worth the opportunity to draft Carson Fulmer? 

 

I am not one of these people anymore, but the White Sox should do something for the premium ticketholders, like lock in their rates for when they are good. They aren't the business expense write off they used to be. Some people are shelling out tens of thousands of dollars for this crap. Someone watching on TV in Ottumwa probably couldn't care less, but these people are paying some freight. 

But I was very clearly told that fans supported the rebuild.