southsider2k5 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said: What's wrong with guys like Brantley and Moustakas on 2 year deals? They might not be on the roster when the Sox are a World Series contender but they would make the team better in the short run and add veteran presences in the clubhouse. This team doesn't need to be better in the short term. It needs to be positioned for the long run. This is 100% of what a rebuild is supposed to be about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: And if that talent turns out to be "rotten", we're fucked anyway. Exactly, Nelson Cruz on a one year deal will be the least of our problems at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said: What's wrong with guys like Brantley and Moustakas on 2 year deals? They might not be on the roster when the Sox are a World Series contender but they would make the team better in the short run and add veteran presences in the clubhouse. Moustakas I'm a little conflicted about, IMO, because at this point after what happened to the hamburgler last year there's no sign of any 3b help coming any time in the future, but we could go hard after Arenado next offseason...and I would kinda rather go hard after Arenado if we miss the guys this year. Brantley is more annoying because I think he'll cost more and because there's a shot we might have some OFs coming up in the 2nd year of that deal, and I kinda would rather have that money to spend elsewhere. But here's the key point - we still need to sign 2 other pitchers. Signing a James Shields and a Lance Lynn, combined with a Moustakas and a Brantley - now your payroll is >$100 million and your roster is still a 70 win candidate for 4th place in the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 For me, it comes down to this: I don't know if the Sox getting Machado/Harper is a possibility, but even if it isn't, there is zero excuse for the Sox to not be active in free agency. I do not want to watch another 63-99 season while guys like Moncada, Lopez, Rodon, Eloy burn another year of control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said: What's wrong with guys like Brantley and Moustakas on 2 year deals? They might not be on the roster when the Sox are a World Series contender but they would make the team better in the short run and add veteran presences in the clubhouse. BECAUSE ADDING VETERANS ISN'T "REBUILDING THE RIGHT WAY" AND ITS RESORTING TO THE OLD "KW TACTICS" AND "WINNING 5 EXTRA GAMES IS WORTHLESS". I don't necessarily agree with it, but those in that boat have at least been clear about it. Sign MM or Harper, or just suck again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: I am not terribly concerned about Rodon. He was basically unhittable for 2 months during the season (July and August), sandwiched between understandable rust in June and fatigue in September. He is an injury concern, yes, but most pitchers are. If you're running out a healthy Rodon as your 4th or 5th starter, you're rotation is pretty amazing. Rodon has done that every single year. He throws up a 5 game stretch where he's unhittable with both pitches working, and then he throws up a stretch of 5+ starts where his control isn't there and he's totally hittable. The end result is that he's a pitcher who puts up an ERA in the high 3's. His FIP was worse this year, but that's probably some velocity loss from the injury - I think he's still a pitcher who would put up an ERA in the high 3's or low 4s over a full season...which happens to be exactly what he's done every year. If that's your best pitcher...you are a pretty weak pitching staff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Aren’t we still basically limited to a 3 or, at best, 4 year window...having to wait until 2021 for Madrigal/Robert and the fact that there’s still so much volatility/variance around Kopech/Cease/Dunning/Hansen? Because you’re already going to be losing Rodon, Abreu...it seems impossible to put together a 5-6 year span like the Cubs and Astros are pulling off, even in our weak ass division. Not to mention the fact that the Twins are positioning themselves to get there to follow up CLE before we do. Unless the internal bullpen candidates morph together like the 2005 team did, you’re going to be spending $30+ million there alone (per year) and praying for offensive breakouts from Collins, Burger and any of those A+/AA outfielders. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: This team doesn't need to be better in the short term. It needs to be positioned for the long run. This is 100% of what a rebuild is supposed to be about. You're not that well positioned for the long term if the majority of your long term talent is expensive or nearing FA by the time the minority of your long term talent is ready to compete at the big league level. That is one thing that I haven't really seen addressed by the folks that are so against spending on non-elite talent. If we suck balls again in 2019, we lose another cheap year of control of alot of the future core. As as has been repeated here many times, you can't expect a 40 game improvement in one offseason, so there goes 2020. Before too long, you're looking at 2021 as the first year of respectability. So now your window is basically 2-3 years, and you're now dealing with not so cheap contracts from guys like Moncada, Eloy, Lopez, Rodon (will likely be gone by then), Anderson, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said: What's wrong with guys like Brantley and Moustakas on 2 year deals? They might not be on the roster when the Sox are a World Series contender but they would make the team better in the short run and add veteran presences in the clubhouse. Because this exactly the path that put our team in the position to need a rebuild in the first place. Tying up too much payroll into average players so that we could not afford impact players when we needed them to push us over the edge. This is not the time for Melky Cabreras. Even if you refuse to acknowledge that JR’s willingness to spend is limited, one of the key factors to recent, successful rebuilds was the ability to allot playing time to deeply flawed but talented players to the end of finding a couple “diamonds in the rough.” You can’t do that if you spend $15 million so that Mike Moustakas can give you 1.7 WAR at third base Edited November 27, 2018 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Rodon has done that every single year. He throws up a 5 game stretch where he's unhittable with both pitches working, and then he throws up a stretch of 5+ starts where his control isn't there and he's totally hittable. The end result is that he's a pitcher who puts up an ERA in the high 3's. His FIP was worse this year, but that's probably some velocity loss from the injury - I think he's still a pitcher who would put up an ERA in the high 3's or low 4s over a full season...which happens to be exactly what he's done every year. If that's your best pitcher...you are a pretty weak pitching staff. He did it for more like a 10-12 game stretch this year and was coming off major operation, so I understand the rust in June and fatigue in September. But yah, Rodon needs to be more consistent. I agree. I just think there are plenty of positives with him - but not surprised to see you focus on the negatives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Rodon has done that every single year. He throws up a 5 game stretch where he's unhittable with both pitches working, and then he throws up a stretch of 5+ starts where his control isn't there and he's totally hittable. The end result is that he's a pitcher who puts up an ERA in the high 3's. His FIP was worse this year, but that's probably some velocity loss from the injury - I think he's still a pitcher who would put up an ERA in the high 3's or low 4s over a full season...which happens to be exactly what he's done every year. If that's your best pitcher...you are a pretty weak pitching staff. In the end, we would have been “luckier” to get Brady Aiken in that draft year, if we could have actually followed it up with Bergman/Tucker/Cameron (since dealt) and NOT drafted Carson Fulmer. That would have addressed two HUGE holes in our lineup on the cheap. Instead, it created two more question marks in the rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 I do think the Sox need to do something even if they don't sign a Machado or Harper. You can't have these guys staring at the same teammates after that ugly season. I would like to see them get something that can inspire some confidence. Whether that or those players will be around when the team actually contends, who knows? But you can add pieces and still develop players. Then when the time comes, bring in someone new. Even if this rebuild works, players are going to be swapped out year after year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: Because this exactly the path that put our team in the position to need a rebuild in the first place. Tying up too much payroll into average players so that we could not afford impact players when we needed them to push us over the edge. This is not the time for Melky Cabreras. Even if you refuse to acknowledge that JR’s willingness to spend is limited, one of the key factors to recent, successful rebuilds was the ability to allot playing time to deeply flawed but talented players to the end of finding a couple “diamonds in the rough.” You can’t do that if you spend $15 million so that Mike Moustakas can give you 1.7 WAR at third base If you have to spend $50 million (combined) per year on Moustakas, Donaldson and Brantley, the rebuild never had a chance, either. The only way this works is not paying full freight but hitting on at least 4-5 unquestionable “bargains” like we did with Dye, AJ, Contreras, Jenks, Hermanson, Pods, Iguchi, etc. It certainly can’t be overpaying like the awful 2014 cycle again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 They can add guys on short deals. They need to be trade-able, with some upside, and they need to be small enough financial commitments that they won’t affect future moves. Guys like Donaldson, who again, would have cost more to come here because we would have had to beat the braves’ number by enough to make it worth it, at $25-30M dollars are diverting resources FROM a championship team, not toward it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: I do think the Sox need to do something even if they don't sign a Machado or Harper. You can't have these guys staring at the same teammates after that ugly season. I would like to see them get something that can inspire some confidence. Whether that or those players will be around when the team actually contends, who knows? But you can add pieces and still develop players. Then when the time comes, bring in someone new. Even if this rebuild works, players are going to be swapped out year after year. They absolutely need to add 2 starting pitchers no matter what happens because right now they only have 3 and all 3 of them have major question marks. Frankly, they could add 2 and a guy like Santiago last year who can pitch out of the bullpen and fill in gaps too. At the very least we need some guys who can throw innings...but one of the tricks is that Kopech and Cease are coming in 2020 and we need open spots for them, so whenever anyone in this thread says something about how we "shouldn't block guys", signing starting pitchers to deals >1 year does exactly that. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: They absolutely need to add 2 starting pitchers no matter what happens because right now they only have 3 and all 3 of them have major question marks. Frankly, they could add 2 and a guy like Santiago last year who can pitch out of the bullpen and fill in gaps too. At the very least we need some guys who can throw innings...but one of the tricks is that Kopech and Cease are coming in 2020 and we need open spots for them, so whenever anyone in this thread says something about how we "shouldn't block guys", signing starting pitchers to deals >1 year does exactly that. Having too many good pitchers is a good thing, not a bad thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 In the end, it feels like a pretty dubious plan (overall) when so much is riding on the unlikely signing of Harper/Machado/Arenado or the projected health of Cease/Kopech. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just now, ChiSox59 said: Having too many good pitchers is a good thing, not a bad thing. Spending money on a starting pitcher only to push them into the bullpen because Kopech and Cease need their roles and they are more important is a bad use of money, not a good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: They can add guys on short deals. They need to be trade-able, with some upside, and they need to be small enough financial commitments that they won’t affect future moves. Guys like Donaldson, who again, would have cost more to come here because we would have had to beat the braves’ number by enough to make it worth it, at $25-30M dollars are diverting resources FROM a championship team, not toward it. Brantley and Moustakas fit this description. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: They absolutely need to add 2 starting pitchers no matter what happens because right now they only have 3 and all 3 of them have major question marks. Frankly, they could add 2 and a guy like Santiago last year who can pitch out of the bullpen and fill in gaps too. At the very least we need some guys who can throw innings...but one of the tricks is that Kopech and Cease are coming in 2020 and we need open spots for them, so whenever anyone in this thread says something about how we "shouldn't block guys", signing starting pitchers to deals >1 year does exactly that. Hector Santiago is a nice guy and all, but why go after a guy like that? What is the upside? As for spots in the rotation, this team hasn't been .500 since 2012, and pitchers are not ever locks to remain healthy. If they have too many starters at any point, which I think is pretty silly to think it actually will happen, they will make someone a reliever or they will be trade bait. Too much pitching isn't a liability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: You're not that well positioned for the long term if the majority of your long term talent is expensive or nearing FA by the time the minority of your long term talent is ready to compete at the big league level. That is one thing that I haven't really seen addressed by the folks that are so against spending on non-elite talent. If we suck balls again in 2019, we lose another cheap year of control of alot of the future core. As as has been repeated here many times, you can't expect a 40 game improvement in one offseason, so there goes 2020. Before too long, you're looking at 2021 as the first year of respectability. So now your window is basically 2-3 years, and you're now dealing with not so cheap contracts from guys like Moncada, Eloy, Lopez, Rodon (will likely be gone by then), Anderson, etc. The majority of the talent won't be though. The first guy to hit it is Rodon in 2022. Giolito/Moncada/Lopez is 2024. Those guys will be hitting their first arb year in 2021. Tim Anderson can't leave until after the 2024 season. They won't get "expensive" as a unit until 2023 and really 2024 the way that the arbitration system is set up. This team is setting up primed for a revival in 2020, and to get the attention of MLB in 2021, which is the typical curve for a full rebuild. That gives a solid window of a few years, plus keeps the pipeline cranking for what they do in 17-21 in terms of minor league talent acquisition. That is also why having as much talent as possible coming through the system is important. Again, keep in mind the KC revival broke down when their pipeline broke down. Houston has been able to continue because of the internal talent they have been able to both call up, and to trade. That way if a Carlos Rodon is set to leave in 2022, the next guy up is ready to step in, instead of it all collapsing like we saw in KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 And can we get rid of the idea that kids somehow can't recover from bad seasons? Houston lost 106/107/111/92 games over a 4 year stretch. It sure hasn't seemed to stop them from winning once the talent got to Houston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said: Brantley and Moustakas fit this description. If either of those guys ends up signing for WAY less than everyone is projecting, sure. Which IS possible, but we won’t know until February. Edited November 27, 2018 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Spending money on a starting pitcher only to push them into the bullpen because Kopech and Cease need their roles and they are more important is a bad use of money, not a good one. I'm not really in the sign Corbin/Keuchel/Eovaldi to long term contracts bandwagon either. But I don't think guys with some actual upside like Kikuchi or even vets like Gio Gonzalez, Lynn, Ervin Santana, Pomeranz, etc. on two years deals is the worst thing in the world. I'd prefer not to fill the last 2 spots in the rotation with the Santiagos, Shields, Miguel Gonzalez and Hollands of the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nardiwashere Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: The majority of the talent won't be though. The first guy to hit it is Rodon in 2022. Giolito/Moncada/Lopez is 2024. Those guys will be hitting their first arb year in 2021. Tim Anderson can't leave until after the 2024 season. They won't get "expensive" as a unit until 2023 and really 2024 the way that the arbitration system is set up. This team is setting up primed for a revival in 2020, and to get the attention of MLB in 2021, which is the typical curve for a full rebuild. That gives a solid window of a few years, plus keeps the pipeline cranking for what they do in 17-21 in terms of minor league talent acquisition. That is also why having as much talent as possible coming through the system is important. Again, keep in mind the KC revival broke down when their pipeline broke down. Houston has been able to continue because of the internal talent they have been able to both call up, and to trade. That way if a Carlos Rodon is set to leave in 2022, the next guy up is ready to step in, instead of it all collapsing like we saw in KC. That assumes the 2020/second wave guys are good instantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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