My opinion: Sox need to make another megadeal

[The Ultimate Champion]

I think the Sox should make another megadeal.  Here are my reasons:

1) The Sox need impact starting pitching.

2) The Sox do not have impact starting pitching down on the farm.

3) Most likely, the Sox will need 6-8 impact starting pitching prospects who are near-MLB ready in order to get 4 SPs who are #3s or better, and then probably one will end up as a reliever.

4) The Sox will not spend big money and years on an impact SP in free agency.  There is another thread that suggests otherwise but as far as I know the same trash that has been running things is still running things, so yeah, that's not happening,

5) The contention window can not reasonably be expected to begin until at least 2021.  It is unreasonable to expect Kopech returning from TJ and Cease, both in their first full years, to anchor a rotation that competes legitimately into October.  It is stupid to even expect that.  Reasonably, we have to assume these guys will be learning and developing while stuck on innings limits.

6) I do not even want to try to contend until 2021, for the above reasons.  I would like to officially "contend" when the team has a legitimate shot at winning a WS.  I don't want to see a young bunch of tired and overthrowing young pitchers trying to turn a seasonal overachievement into something impossibly more.  I'd rather lose the divison in 2020 and come out of ST in 2021 after a big offseason looking to win a title, with the young core freshly rested, healthy, experienced, and hungry.  I believe that this rebuild shouldn't be "rushed across the finish line" a year early, even though I expect it given the car full of clowns running the show here.

Edited July 22, 2019 by The Ultimate Champion

[The Ultimate Champion]

So I would like to see the Sox try to make 2 megadeals:

(1) Giolito + 1 or both of  Colome + Bummer to the Braves **only***.

I would try to get Pache, Anderson, and 3 more players which would be 2 SPs and an OF like Waters, or 3 SPs.

I am not interested in doing this trade with another team, unless the Rays want to get kinda crazy.  That said, the Braves are led by AA who was the guy that made a whole pile of huge moves in Toronto, and just seems to love this kind of deal.

 

(2) Anderson to LAD or MIL for a haul.  I am not sure if there are other fits, but I am a little bit tired of watching Anderson's act and I definitely believe he could be replaced in a way that only makes the team better. 

I wouldn't trade him for scraps, but from the Dodgers, Anderson for Lux + Ruiz + May is a nice deal.  I think TA's general bullshit fits well in LA with the rest of the general bullshit they do out there.  Oh and May would have to shave that ugly mop here which is great.  

From the BrewCrew, I bet they would give up Turang and pitching.  Ashby as a 3rd piece sounds interesting to me.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Seriously let's say you are AA and the guy in Detroit is asking for Ian Anderson and Folty plus for Boyd and Greene.  Really?  If that kind of talk is on the table, I am putting Gio out there who actually has the pedigree and I'm putting Colome and Bummer on the table also.

Similarly, imagine being the Dodgers and you're getting told you'll have to give up the world for some rentals in SF.  If I were them I'd rather go for a big fish.

Legitimately, if you are a contender, what is out there this year pretty much sucks and it looks like you're really going to have to overpay for the rentals.  This is a bad year for the Sox to not have much good to sell, IMO.

[Justinsettle]

My opinion is the people that other teams would potentially want-  we still don't really know what we got in them.  Moncada was pretty bad last year, this year # 13 RC+ and #14 OPS in the entire AL.  What is he going to be next year?  Gio last year was one of the worst pitchers in both leagues this year #9 in the AL in XFIP.  What will he be next year?  Even Anderson-  this is easily his best offensive year-  #45 in league in RC+ and #6 amongst SS.  He is the elder statesman and you still don't really know.  Although I agree more top prospects would be good- especially pitching- the odds are a prospect won't put up numbers like the Moncada, Gio or Anderson.  I read some stat that like only 30% of first round picks even go on to have average careers much less become stars.  When we traded Quintana, Sale, Eaton-  you pretty much knew what you had and what to expect.  Your Anderson trade to LA sounds great but its also possible none of those players do anything close to what Anderson is doing now.  Moncada has actually surprised me this season because most of the time swing and miss issues don't get better.  But seeing his improvements this year has  me really excited for what he will eventually become.  

[greg775]

5 hours ago, The Ultimate Champion said:

I do not even want to try to contend until 2021, for the above reasons.  I would like to officially "contend" when the team has a legitimate shot at winning a WS.

Man I am 100 percent a different kind of fan than you. Give me division titles and I'll take my chances in the playoffs. You want to contend when you think we're so dominant we just cruise to the crown. Rarely works out that way unless it's 2005. This is absolutely un-American in my opinion. Winning is an American quality. Wat you got against winning and competing once you get to the playoffs? 2021? Geez.

[SoxAce]

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Man I am 100 percent a different kind of fan than you. Give me division titles and I'll take my chances in the playoffs. You want to contend when you think we're so dominant we just cruise to the crown. Rarely works out that way unless it's 2005.

RARELY do I agree with a Greg post. But this is spot on. 

[greg775]

1 minute ago, SoxAce said:

RARELY do I agree with a Greg post. But this is spot on. 

Note to mods who dislike me. There are all kinds of fans. This one agrees with my post!

[SoxAce]

Just now, Tony said:

I agree with you as well. That doesn’t mean your other opinions are sound.

^^^^^^ This. 

[greg775]

25 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

^^^^^^ This. 

I'm just a loyal fan who will never turn on his favorite players or managers.

[southsideirish71]

11 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I'm just a loyal fan who will never turn on his favorite players or managers.



Loyal fans are fans on the front of the jersey not the back of it.   I have seen players that I have liked come and go.  I don't however root for the players when they play against the sox.  You on the other hand cheer home runs by opposing ex-white sox players when they hit them against the sox.  

[southsideirish71]

6 hours ago, The Ultimate Champion said:

So I would like to see the Sox try to make 2 megadeals:

(1) Giolito + 1 or both of  Colome + Bummer to the Braves **only***.

I would try to get Pache, Anderson, and 3 more players which would be 2 SPs and an OF like Waters, or 3 SPs.

I am not interested in doing this trade with another team, unless the Rays want to get kinda crazy.  That said, the Braves are led by AA who was the guy that made a whole pile of huge moves in Toronto, and just seems to love this kind of deal.

 

(2) Anderson to LAD or MIL for a haul.  I am not sure if there are other fits, but I am a little bit tired of watching Anderson's act and I definitely believe he could be replaced in a way that only makes the team better. 

I wouldn't trade him for scraps, but from the Dodgers, Anderson for Lux + Ruiz + May is a nice deal.  I think TA's general bullshit fits well in LA with the rest of the general bullshit they do out there.  Oh and May would have to shave that ugly mop here which is great.  

From the BrewCrew, I bet they would give up Turang and pitching.  Ashby as a 3rd piece sounds interesting to me.

You want to trade a 25 year old starting pitcher making minimum who is pitching like Gio is?  This makes zero sense to me.  Controlled young talent that is performing at a high level at the major league level is what rebuilds try to accomplish.  Taking cost effective players and flipping them for something else and trying to backfill it is not sustainable.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If I could get Pache + Wright + Anderson for Gio I would drive him to the airport.

If I could get Pache + Wright + Anderson + Folty for Gio + Bummer I would drive them both to the airport.

ATL's system beats the holy dogshit out of the Sox system and now we all get to see why.  Before when there were questions about whose system was better, the answer was always ATL because of the depth.  The Sox system was front-loaded due to the big 3 trades.  But other than that, the Sox system has been bad.  Madrigal, Robert, and Vaughn seem to be the only "jewels" of the Sox farm after Tim Anderson came through.  ATL has a bunch of guys who we'd be nuts about if we had them on our side.

As far as what is "sustainable", I will say this:

1) Our FO is not going to hand out big money 5+ year contracts to TOR starters.  It will not happen.

2) The only way for us to get 5+ year control TOR SPs is to a) trade for them, or b) draft them.  In the case of a, we do not have the depth on the farm to make that happen.  We do not have enough impact pieces.  We actually need all of our pieces, specifically Madrigal, Robert, and Vaugh, to pan out, along with a full recovery from Kopech, and we need Kopech and Cease to pan out, too.  We also need Reynaldo to take a big step forward.

I think the kind of deal I am advocating, most GMs would not want to make.  But AA is the guy who took on like 800 billion dollars and sent 47 players to the Marlins for half their team, and he's the same guy who traded for Donaldson, Tulo, etc. and he traded Noah Syndergaard for RA Dickey for fucks sake.  He seems to be just like Dave Dombrowski is, when it comes to wanting to make that really big deal.

And as far as what is sustainable in contention, man, I do not know how people can be so optimistic about the Sox ATM.  We are offense-heavy, and we really need our few big-time SP pieces to all hit.  And then even if that all happens, we do not have the depth to make a few big deals.

I do not want to jump into the gun fight a year too early with half a clip of bullets.  I'd rather jump in a year later with a whole pile of ammo.  If we try to contend too early and lose -- just like we should expect, because we do not have enough pitching -- then we trap our selves in a spot where we can't act.  Once you start to "win," you can't stop, backtrack, and do more "rebuilding."  

I personally do not think we have enough pieces yet, and I don't think the farm is strong on the bottom.  I would not be interested in trading players like Sheets at all, and dealing away the few guys who might turn into something. I'd rather keep adding to the picture for at least 1 more season.  Then, go into 2021 looking for a deep playoff run.  If you traded Gio this year for 2 guys who debuted for you this year, 2021 could still be Kopech and Cease's 2nd full season, and Reynaldo's 4th full season, and then the 2 guys you get would be in their 2nd full season also.  That's a winning formula IMO.

Also I just think that if AA is willing to put Pache on the table that's a move we need to try to make.  An OF of Pache-Robert in CF-RF has the potential to be amazing.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Seriously, legit question: let's say this deal is actually feasible (I would be skeptical):

Gio + Bummer for Pache, Anderson, Wright, Folty.  

Does anyone actually not pull the trigger on that?  I do so immediately, jumping up and down and just elated, overjoyed, thrilled and absolutely optimistic about the Sox future. 

[poppysox]

10 hours ago, greg775 said:

Note to mods who dislike me. There are all kinds of fans. This one agrees with my post!

It doesn't matter who agrees with who.  This forum would be pretty boring if there weren't differing opinions. Disagreements are great...disagreeable is not.

[greg775]

9 hours ago, The Ultimate Champion said:

If I could get Pache + Wright + Anderson for Gio I would drive him to the airport.

If I could get Pache + Wright + Anderson + Folty for Gio + Bummer I would drive them both to the airport.

ATL's system beats the holy dogshit out of the Sox system and now we all get to see why.  Before when there were questions about whose system was better, the answer was always ATL because of the depth.  The Sox system was front-loaded due to the big 3 trades.  But other than that, the Sox system has been bad.  Madrigal, Robert, and Vaughn seem to be the only "jewels" of the Sox farm after Tim Anderson came through.  ATL has a bunch of guys who we'd be nuts about if we had them on our side.

As far as what is "sustainable", I will say this:

1) Our FO is not going to hand out big money 5+ year contracts to TOR starters.  It will not happen.

2) The only way for us to get 5+ year control TOR SPs is to a) trade for them, or b) draft them.  In the case of a, we do not have the depth on the farm to make that happen.  We do not have enough impact pieces.  We actually need all of our pieces, specifically Madrigal, Robert, and Vaugh, to pan out, along with a full recovery from Kopech, and we need Kopech and Cease to pan out, too.  We also need Reynaldo to take a big step forward.

I think the kind of deal I am advocating, most GMs would not want to make.  But AA is the guy who took on like 800 billion dollars and sent 47 players to the Marlins for half their team, and he's the same guy who traded for Donaldson, Tulo, etc. and he traded Noah Syndergaard for RA Dickey for fucks sake.  He seems to be just like Dave Dombrowski is, when it comes to wanting to make that really big deal.

And as far as what is sustainable in contention, man, I do not know how people can be so optimistic about the Sox ATM.  We are offense-heavy, and we really need our few big-time SP pieces to all hit.  And then even if that all happens, we do not have the depth to make a few big deals.

I do not want to jump into the gun fight a year too early with half a clip of bullets.  I'd rather jump in a year later with a whole pile of ammo.  If we try to contend too early and lose -- just like we should expect, because we do not have enough pitching -- then we trap our selves in a spot where we can't act.  Once you start to "win," you can't stop, backtrack, and do more "rebuilding."  

I personally do not think we have enough pieces yet, and I don't think the farm is strong on the bottom.  I would not be interested in trading players like Sheets at all, and dealing away the few guys who might turn into something. I'd rather keep adding to the picture for at least 1 more season.  Then, go into 2021 looking for a deep playoff run.  If you traded Gio this year for 2 guys who debuted for you this year, 2021 could still be Kopech and Cease's 2nd full season, and Reynaldo's 4th full season, and then the 2 guys you get would be in their 2nd full season also.  That's a winning formula IMO.

Also I just think that if AA is willing to put Pache on the table that's a move we need to try to make.  An OF of Pache-Robert in CF-RF has the potential to be amazing.

It seems kind of weird to start proposing trades involving guys we acquired for the rebuild like Gio. Is this loop never ending?

[TheFutureIsNear]

I would go opposite direction of OP and would be trying to acquire an established young SP and/or OF’er with “excess” (for lack of a better term) prospects.

 

Keep: Robert, Madrigal, Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, and Collins to contribute next year. + the obvious of Gio, Yoan and TA

 

Would we have enough to acquire a significant contributor after those guys? Kinda doubt it, but I hope Hahn is at least exploring options. A lot like the Rays getting Tommy Pham last year despite that they cleary weren’t going to make the playoffs.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by TheFutureIsNear

[fathom]

Not sure if he’s on the market, but Joey Gallo would be a perfect fit in RF if Texas makes him available.

[Jose Abreu]

13 minutes ago, fathom said:

Not sure if he’s on the market, but Joey Gallo would be a perfect fit in RF if Texas makes him available.

Even if he is on the market, the price would probably be enormous. He's an MVP-caliber player with 3.5 years of control left

[KnightsOnMintSt]

I dont think I would do another mega-deal because in my opinion, the Sox will compete next year. I like what we have on the roster now. Add Robert, Madrigal and maybe Vaughn at the end of the year, plus a few starting pitchers, and the White Sox could be a playoff team next year.

[fathom]

5 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Even if he is on the market, the price would probably be enormous. He's an MVP-caliber player with 3.5 years of control left

I would use Cease as a headliner in a trade for him, to be honest 

[Jack Parkman]

It all depends on what they do this offseason. Should they strike out again, I'd listen on Giolito and Moncada, but only for a package similar to the Sale deal, headlined by players that are a season or two away from the Bigs as of this very moment. It would suck to have to do that, but the window with those two would be so small at that point, that if they keep up their current performance the Sox won't pay them anyway. It could be beneficial and innovative. You're probably kicking the can down the road another year or two but it would make for a larger window. If they were to trade those guys, the critical mass would line up in 2021, and you'd have a good 5 year window to win. Interesting thought. If the Sox aren't going to be ready until 2021, then it should be considered. I hate saying this as Gio and Moncada are my two favorite players on the team, but I root for the laundry. This is an interesting idea and it is probably something the Rays or A's would do, which makes it more intriguing if they're going to be a small market team. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

20 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It all depends on what they do this offseason. Should they strike out again, I'd listen on Giolito and Moncada, but only for a package similar to the Sale deal, headlined by players that are a season or two away from the Bigs as of this very moment. It would suck to have to do that, but the window with those two would be so small at that point, that if they keep up their current performance the Sox won't pay them anyway. It could be beneficial and innovative. You're probably kicking the can down the road another year or two but it would make for a larger window. If they were to trade those guys, the critical mass would line up in 2021, and you'd have a good 5 year window to win. Interesting thought. If the Sox aren't going to be ready until 2021, then it should be considered. I hate saying this as Gio and Moncada are my two favorite players on the team, but I root for the laundry. This is an interesting idea and it is probably something the Rays or A's would do, which makes it more intriguing if they're going to be a small market team. 

The problem is nobody is going to value either Giolito or Moncada (Moncada would definitely have the higher value) in that Sale fashion until they keep this up at least through mid-season next year.   You said it yourself...who was so faithful to Giolito last year and then has had that confidence shaken over the last month in 2019, if his biggest fan isn't going to overvalue him or believe in him in terms of trade/asset value, why would an opposing team's GM feel even more strongly about overpaying to acquire Lucas?

In retrospect, I certainly get why trading Eaton made sense...he was AT BEST a negative clubhouse presence, he was coming off an anomalous healthy season where he had an extremely high fWAR because he'd moved from CF to RF and was piling up the assists, which isn't an easily repeatable stat...but there's the problem that if you trade both of them, you're still looking at losing Anderson/Rodon, you've still got Kopech/Cease/Dunning with TJ histories, then MAYBE you buy ONE extra year of contention?

The problem with that is White Sox fans have already been going through this for a decade...they're not going to stand for a payoff to their patience that's deferred until the 2023 and possibly the 2024 season.

Then you're basically just the Oakland A's.

If they want to do that, get someone from the front office of Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland or even Atlanta that really knows how to operate in that type of rebuilding/retooling on the fly environment, because it's definitely not Hahn and Williams any longer.

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The problem is nobody is going to value either Giolito or Moncada (Moncada would definitely have the higher value) in that Sale fashion until they keep this up at least through mid-season next year.   You said it yourself...who was so faithful to Giolito last year and then has had that confidence shaken over the last month in 2019, if his biggest fan isn't going to overvalue him or believe in him in terms of trade/asset value, why would an opposing team's GM feel even more strongly about overpaying to acquire Lucas?

In retrospect, I certainly get why trading Eaton made sense...he was AT BEST a negative clubhouse presence, he was coming off an anomalous healthy season where he had an extremely high fWAR because he'd moved from CF to RF and was piling up the assists, which isn't an easily repeatable stat...but there's the problem that if you trade both of them, you're still looking at losing Anderson/Rodon, you've still got Kopech/Cease/Dunning with TJ histories, then MAYBE you buy ONE extra year of contention?

The problem with that is White Sox fans have already been going through this for a decade...they're not going to stand for a payoff to their patience that's deferred until the 2023 and possibly the 2024 season.

Then you're basically just the Oakland A's.

If they want to do that, get someone from the front office of Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland or even Atlanta that really knows how to operate in that type of rebuilding/retooling on the fly environment, because it's definitely not Hahn and Williams any longer.

I wouldn't consider moving those two until next summer at best. 

Also, if you're not going to spend money for even 2nd tier FA, then you might as well keep trading guys. The A's have the right idea for small market teams. Trade guys with two years left, or if you're far away from winning, three. 

[greg775]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The problem with that is White Sox fans have already been going through this for a decade...they're not going to stand for a payoff to their patience that's deferred until the 2023 and possibly the 2024 season.

Good post but I don't think the fans matter here ... at all. The Sox though worth all that money we recently read have fooled everybody into being a small market team, one of the cheapest front offices around. Sox are worth all this money despite team's horrific performance on the field throughout history. Fans don't matter. Apparently they don't need them with all that primary money in TV apparently never drying up.

[greg775]

54 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It all depends on what they do this offseason. Should they strike out again, I'd listen on Giolito and Moncada...

Man I never thought Soxtalk users would be discussing trading the guys we already traded for. Truly a cycle that can never be broken I guess. Fans love the mysterious so much that at least one would trade Gio and Moncada.