3 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Nice try, but very different probabilities. The probability of hitting an HR through the draft is much lower than in the game of baseball as you’re trying to force together an analogy. In that case I would rather have 3 singles or a double and a single than trying to hit an HR every single time where the probability is much lower. MLB draft is where if you’re constantly hitting singles or doubles, you’re doing better than 95% of the league.

That may be true if you're the Yankees or Dodgers and always picking in the back of the draft but if you have a top pick you have to try to hit a home run every single time.  

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It doesn't reach the level of statistical significance unless you have an r^2 of over 0.5, so none of those have a correlation that is anything close to having any meaning at all. 

Lol...did you just literally make this up?  There isn’t going to one magic variable that explains all the variation in BABIP, so expecting anything with a r2 is just plain wrong.

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It doesn't reach the level of statistical significance unless you have an r^2 of over 0.5, so none of those have a correlation that is anything close to having any meaning at all. 

I've already explained why theres no correlation between these stats individually and BABIP in another thread. 

Correlation and causation arent the same thing anyway. 

2 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Nice try, but very different probabilities. The probability of hitting an HR through the draft is much lower than in the game of baseball as you’re trying to force together an analogy. In that case I would rather have 3 singles or a double and a single than trying to hit an HR every single time where the probability is much lower. MLB draft is where if you’re constantly hitting singles or doubles, you’re doing better than 95% of the league.

It depends on what your definition of a single and a double is. 

My definitions: 

Strikeout: Never make the Majors

Groundout: <0.5 WAR 

Single: 0.5-2.5 WAR annually

Double : 2.5-4 WAR annually 

Triple: 4-5.5 WAR annually

HR: 5.5+ WAR

 

 

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've already explained why theres no correlation between these stats individually and BABIP in another thread. 

Correlation and causation arent the same thing anyway. 

Very true. 

4 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

So this is really off the rails now.  And just to throw more gas on it, I too wanted Bleday over Vaughn since our entire org is 1B/DH's now.

Who are all these 1B/DH’s exactly?

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No it doesn't. Players before the 90s would go out of their way to strike out as little as possible. I'm sure 30% of hitters had a K% of less than 10% in the 50s and 60s. 

You know this how?  Did Daddy tell you about to good old days of no strikeouts and slappy hitters.  I am sure it has a lot to do with the fact that they werent seeing Nolan Ryan's velocity more than once a month and seeing guys throwing 98 to 100 from the 6th inning on.  

 

 

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...did you just literally make this up?  There isn’t going to one magic variable that explains all the variation in BABIP, so expecting anything with a r2 is just plain wrong.

No, I actually took a graduate level statistics course. You? 

6 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

So this is really off the rails now.  And just to throw more gas on it, I too wanted Bleday over Vaughn since our entire org is 1B/DH's now.

They aren't talking about Vaughn. If they were, I'd probably be siding with Jack more in that stance. Completely disagree about Madrigal however. 

Edited July 25, 20196 yr by SoxAce

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No, I actually took a graduate level statistics course. You? 

I mean I only took undergrad level stats but I can tell you that expecting to see such a strong correlation with only one variable in BABIP is wrong.  Most of the calculator are using 5-7 variables including batted ball data like pull rate and hard hit %.

Edited July 25, 20196 yr by chitownsportsfan

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

No, I actually took a graduate level statistics course. You? 

Lol...same here!  Your move Jack!

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It depends on what your definition of a single and a double is. 

My definitions: 

Strikeout: Never make the Majors

Groundout: <0.5 WAR 

Single: 0.5-2.5 WAR annually

Double : 2.5-4 WAR annually 

Triple: 4-5.5 WAR annually

HR: 5.5+ WAR

 

 

Shitty definition to fit an argument and not a game I want to play, since the difference between a ground out and a single is almost as high as single and an HR.

43 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Because in order to strike out at a ridiculously low rate you're not getting into deep counts. 

You can't reasonably say that at all, unless you have statistical evidence of a strong correlation between low K rates and low pitch/AB numbers or something of the like. I'd be willing to bet the opposite is true.

19 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

You know this how?  Did Daddy tell you about to good old days of no strikeouts and slappy hitters.  I am sure it has a lot to do with the fact that they werent seeing Nolan Ryan's velocity more than once a month and seeing guys throwing 98 to 100 from the 6th inning on.  

 

 

Just watching baseball over the past 25 years I can already see the difference. Yes, pitchers are " throwing harder" but this is why: 

Also, did you know that they changed the spot in which they measure pitch velocity since then? Back before like 2010 they used to measure in front of home plate. Now the measure it right after the pitcher releases the baseball. I know that it's only 60.5 ft, but drag matters. A 95 mph fastball right out of the pitcher's hand is around 91-92 mph when it reaches the plate. Pitchers aren't throwing harder, it just looks like they are because they changed the point of reference.  It is why guys who used to throw 92 mph could strike out as many people as they did. They are only creating an illusion that pitchers are throwing harder than ever before. They're not. 

Edited July 25, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman

Looks like the Sox are finally bringing @WBWSF on board. If I was Rick Hahn, I wouldn't feel so confident about my job security anymore. 

 

33 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

http://baseball-farm.com/index.php/2019/07/20/nick-madrigal-and-baseball-preconceptions/

 

 

intuitively that makes perfect sense as a soft looping line drive looks "same in the box score" as a rocket.  This might be in part some of the origins of the "level swing back up the middle" theory of hitting that prevailed for so long until the launch angle revolution and so much batted ball data for MLB scouted players.

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I mean I only took undergrad level stats but I can tell you that expecting to see such a strong correlation with only one variable in BABIP is wrong.  Most of the calculator are using 5-7 variables including batted ball data like pull rate and hard hit %.

He thought exit velocity was going to explain like 80% of the variation in BABIP, which was a bad assumption.  The reality is each of these variables build off each other (a ground ball is good for a fast guy, but bad for a slow guy), which is why you’d need a multi variable regression to accurately predict BABIP.  That being said, you can still gather some common themes by looking at the r2 of the independent variables.

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No, I actually took a graduate level statistics course. You? 

I've taken about 20 graduate level math classes - statistics included. Who cares? You've disagreed with me all night and I don't go there because who cares.

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

intuitively that makes perfect sense as a soft looping line drive looks "same in the box score" as a rocket.  This might be in part some of the origins of the "level swing back up the middle" theory of hitting that prevailed for so long until the launch angle revolution and so much batted ball data for MLB scouted players.

Not always, the soft looping LD can end up resulting in extra bases where a frozen rope that doesn't clear the fence can end up as a single. 

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Who are all these 1B/DH’s exactly?

Currently,  Abreu, Sheets, Burger, Collins, Yermin,  Vaughn of course, and probably Eloy,

And we have like 1.5 RF's at minimum 2 years out with no real high upside.  I just didn't like the pick because it's such an easy position to fill and our minor league OF's died.  

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Just watching baseball over the past 25 years I can already see the difference. Yes, pitchers are throwing harder. But, hitters are used to it. You have to be able to turn around 95+ now because it is a requirement. 

 Also, did you know that they changed the spot in which they measure pitch velocity since then? Back before like 2010 they used to measure in front of home plate. Now the measure it right after the pitcher releases the baseball. I know that it's only 60.5 ft, but drag matters. A 95 mph fastball right out of the pitcher's hand is around 91-92 mph when it reaches the plate. Pitchers aren't throwing harder, it just looks like they are because they changed where they measured it. It is why guys who used to throw 92 mph could strike out as many people as they did. They are only creating an illusion that pitchers are throwing harder, because they've changed the point of reference. 

You contracted yourself in the same post.  

 

14 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I mean I only took undergrad level stats but I can tell you that expecting to see such a strong correlation with only one variable in BABIP is wrong.  Most of the calculator are using 5-7 variables including batted ball data like pull rate and hard hit %.

Yeah, the more variables you have the lower the R^2 for all of them. 

Edited July 25, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman

4 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Currently,  Abreu, Sheets, Burger, Collins, Yermin,  Vaughn of course, and probably Eloy,

And we have like 1.5 RF's at minimum 2 years out with no real high upside.  I just didn't like the pick because it's such an easy position to fill and our minor league OF's died.  

RF isn’t exactly a hard spot to fill. I have no problem with Vaughn over Bleday if they viewed him as the better bat.

8 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I mean I only took undergrad level stats but I can tell you that expecting to see such a strong correlation with only one variable in BABIP is wrong.  Most of the calculator are using 5-7 variables including batted ball data like pull rate and hard hit %.

The variables can be different for so many different kinds of players. This is why it's hard to pinpoint any particular skills that correlate.

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

intuitively that makes perfect sense as a soft looping line drive looks "same in the box score" as a rocket.  This might be in part some of the origins of the "level swing back up the middle" theory of hitting that prevailed for so long until the launch angle revolution and so much batted ball data for MLB scouted players.

Launch angle hikes arent supposed to be for everyone. If you have lesser power and great speed you shouldn't be trying to lift the ball all day.

2 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

You contracted yourself in the same post.  

 

Contradicted. Yes. That was a later edit, that I missed to put quotes around "throwing harder" and fix the first sentence.  I forgot to do that. 

Edited July 25, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman