September 12, 20214 yr 34 minutes ago, asindc said: Past seasons are irrelevant to this discussion. No they aren't. Just like Houston was under. 500 last year and still went to the ALCS. Teams that win divisions year after year will get the benefit of the doubt if they have a down year.
September 13, 20214 yr Author I think the Brewers ended the little chance there was left to win the division for the indians. Sox not playing good a sweep could have given the indians a chance but getting swept themselves now means they are Probably out
September 13, 20214 yr 14 hours ago, Dominikk85 said: I think the Brewers ended the little chance there was left to win the division for the indians. Sox not playing good a sweep could have given the indians a chance but getting swept themselves now means they are Probably out I think them getting swept by Milwaukee pretty much guaranteed that the Sox will clinch before the series in Cleveland. Cleveland plays 3 against the Twins in Minnesota (they're 6-10 against them this year) and then the Yankees in NY. I think they're probably looking at a 3-3 week at best and a very likely 2-4 week if not 1-5. That means if the Sox go 4-2 this week, they'll probably either clinch on Sunday in Texas or at Detroit.
September 15, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, StrangeSox said: Cleveland fans: I don’t know… those numbers look pretty grim for us.
September 15, 20214 yr 10 minutes ago, StrangeSox said: Cleveland fans: KC still has a chance...Things not looking so good.
September 24, 20214 yr FanGraphs Playoff Odds at the All-Star Break/Today: Padres 91.1% / 0.2% Mets 77.7% / <0.1% A's 49.0% / 0.2% Yankees 41.7% / 56.0% Braves 7.5% / 75.3% Cardinals 2.3% / 98.0%
September 24, 20214 yr Odd thing about the Padres is they kind of just fell apart. Did they have any massive injuries?
September 24, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said: Odd thing about the Padres is they kind of just fell apart. Did they have any massive injuries? They have been one of the most banged up teams all year. Right now Snell is done for the season, but almost everyone other than Machado has had a stretch on the IL. Tatis was there several times with that shoulder, he would probably have 50+ home runs now if healthy. But perhaps more important, a lot of their big acquisitions underperformed. Snell and Darvish both have ERAs over 4 and Snell has fewer innings than Rodon. Hudson, Pomeranz have either struggled or been hurt. They also have better run differentials than St Louis or Cinci, so they are underperforming overall.
September 24, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said: Odd thing about the Padres is they kind of just fell apart. Did they have any massive injuries? Yep, they lost most of their rotation, and that doesn’t include Mike Clevinger who was lost last September. Padre starters: Lamet (Limited to 9 starts) Snell (IL early September) Paddack (3 starts since July) They turned to 2018 First Round pick Ryan Weathers, who has not pitched well (5.12 ERA), picked up Jake Arrieta (10.95 ERA) out if desperation to pitch key games down the stretch, and their Ace Yu Darvish (.797 OPS, 6.28 ERA) has pitched almost as bad as Dallas Keuchel (.922 OPS, 6.71 ERA) since the ASB. Joe Musgrove has been their only solid consistent starter. Manny was right, it’s not about you (Tatis), it’s more about Yu.
September 24, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: They have been one of the most banged up teams all year. Right now Snell is done for the season, but almost everyone other than Machado has had a stretch on the IL. Tatis was there several times with that shoulder, he would probably have 50+ home runs now if healthy. But perhaps more important, a lot of their big acquisitions underperformed. Snell and Darvish both have ERAs over 4 and Snell has fewer innings than Rodon. Hudson, Pomeranz have either struggled or been hurt. They also have better run differentials than St Louis or Cinci, so they are underperforming overall. They've had a lot of injuries and they are a very top heavy team position player wise with as you noted disappointing and mediocre SP. For all the complaints about the Sox's 2nd half at least the SP looks to be, minus Rodon's health, rounding into form for the playoffs.
October 4, 20214 yr Fangraphs probabilities to win World Series, updated after today's games: Dodgers 16.9% Astros 15.7% WHITE SOX 13.7% Brewers 10.0% Giants 9.5% Braves 8.7% Yankees 8.4% Red Sox 7.7% Rays 7.7% Cardinals 1.7% Amazing that the Dodgers are the favorites despite having to win the WC game. Both leagues' #1 seeds not getting much respect.
October 4, 20214 yr Current Vegas Odds from the MGM sports book (amounts are your return for an $100 wager, you would get your $100 back plus the amounts below): Los Angeles +325 Houston +475 Tampa Bay +625 San Francisco +700 White Sox +750 Milwaukee +800 Atlanta +1400 New York +1600 Saint Louis +2000 Boston +2000 https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/
October 4, 20214 yr Those are terrible odds on the Dodgers. No wild card team can be that short of odds to win the World Series. Sox are priced pretty close to fair. Best value might be Atlanta.
October 4, 20214 yr 26 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said: Those are terrible odds on the Dodgers. No wild card team can be that short of odds to win the World Series. Sox are priced pretty close to fair. Best value might be Atlanta. I like San Francisco at this point, though it really is a crap shoot. Westgate in Vegas will charge less vig than the crappy MGM odds, but it was the only link I found. Giants are really low with the Rivers Sports book (+550), the Sox are the same +750 as in Vegas. Brewers are also +750 on the North Side. https://il.betrivers.com/?page=sportsbook#event/1006996047
October 4, 20214 yr 8 minutes ago, RibbieRubarb said: Some of the early, April posts in this thread are awesome. I now think caulfield might be Ted after reading that first page
October 5, 20214 yr 22 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said: Those are terrible odds on the Dodgers. No wild card team can be that short of odds to win the World Series. Sox are priced pretty close to fair. Best value might be Atlanta. I don't care what the oddsmakers think. They picked the Twins to win the division.
October 6, 20214 yr On 10/3/2021 at 9:24 PM, South Side Hit Men said: Sunday Evening Vegas Odds from the MGM sports book (amounts are your return for an $100 wager, you would get your $100 back plus the amounts below): Los Angeles +325 +400 (Kershaw / Muncy Injuries pushed these odds up significantly) Houston +475 +475 (No change) Tampa Bay +625 +600 (Slight adjustment for the Boston Matchup) San Francisco +700 +600 (San Fran money coming in, coincides with the Dodger change. I posted earlier San Francisco was the value play with the early odds) White Sox +750 +700 (Slight change, Yankees out help all AL teams) Milwaukee +800 +800 (No change) Atlanta +1400 +1200 (Some action caused downward pressure) New York +1600 Out (Fuck you Yankees) Saint Louis +2000 +2000 (No change) Boston +2000 +800 (Won the coin flip game, Almost same odds as the Sox at this point, even with an iffy J. D. Martinez), https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/ Updated odds after the Boston game are in Bold. Game 1 Odds aren't out because La Russa and Hahn are pulling Nagy and Pace "Strategery". https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/
October 6, 20214 yr 26 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said: Updated odds after the Boston game are in Bold. Game 1 Odds aren't out because La Russa and Hahn are pulling Nagy and Pace "Strategery". https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/ White Sox HAVE to be the value at this point. LA I love. There is no one in the NL that will contend with them in the playoffs IMO.
October 6, 20214 yr Fangraphs writers polled playoff odds: White Sox most popular choice to win ALCS by nearly two times as many votes as the second finisher…. Tied with the Dodgers as WS winner. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/heres-whos-going-to-maybe-win-the-2021-world-series/
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