We might have batted this around before but given Rodon's season so far, what would be a reasonable contract both sides might agree to...both years and $$? 

Edited September 2, 20214 yr by wegner

I don't see Rodon coming back to the Sox.  Next season you have the following four pitchers as near locks to be in the rotation:

Giolito

Cease

Lynn

Kopech

Also, Keuchel is still under contract next season and it would be difficult to move him in a trade, given his performance and salary for 2022.  The Sox are unlikely to let Keuchel reach 160 innings in 2022, as that would vest his option for 2023. To avoid that, we'll probably see Reynaldo Lopez get a fair amount of starts, which he has earned to this point.

Carlos has been excellent this season. Let's ride him to a World Series win and offer him the QO.  He'll get a well-deserved payday from another team and the Sox will get a comp pick.

Rodon isn't coming back, and the Sox shouldn't spend the $ it will require to get him.

I am guessing $15-18M AAV on the 3-4 year deal.  I love (this version) of Carlos, but that isn't good to be a good deal for whoever signs that

4/$90 is about what I expect him to get because of Boras. Too rich for Sox blood, but if Crochet isn't going to start by 2nd half next year...Sox will have no lefties in the pipeline and that is a bit scary.

I think Lopez gets 120-150 innings next year to bridge the Keuchel innings mandate, Kopech only being able to do probably 120 innings or so and hopefully...Crochet getting about 5-7 starts in the second half next year. 

He will sign for 4 years 60 million is my guess.  I would sign him to it, with the way he continues to pitch.  At the very least you offer the QO.  The only way to make it work though would be to trade Keuchel as a salary dump (likely), since Kopech will need to be in the rotation.

23 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Rodon isn't coming back, and the Sox shouldn't spend the $ it will require to get him.

I am guessing $15-18M AAV on the 3-4 year deal.  I love (this version) of Carlos, but that isn't good to be a good deal for whoever signs that

I have no idea what Scott Boras's side will do, and that might be exactly what he signs for, and there's a half dozen major factors in play over the next 3 months that will influence the final number...but if I were Carlos Rodon, that's the one contract structure I wouldn't sign.

If I am signing a multi-year guaranteed deal, I'd want to get into Wheeler's range before I started thinking about that. If the CBA doesn't demolish them, I can't see how that's a terrible gamble for a team like the Yankees, they've spent way worse than that on pitching the last couple years anyway. At least Rodon has TOR ceiling. Remember with Wheeler specifically, people were talking about $75-$80 million as being fair for him late in the previous season, and then the actual FA market was way higher.

If I can't get into that range, I'll try to sign something like a Bauer deal, with a big salary in one season and quick ways out right afterwards.

I doubt his shoulder is holding up. he will get more rest.

We can offer him the QO right?  No brainer, take the draft pick and if in some crazy world he accepts you'll gladly take him on a one year market rate deal.

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

We can offer him the QO right?  No brainer, take the draft pick and if in some crazy world he accepts you'll gladly take him on a one year market rate deal.

Yes. But worth adding that the QO rules are almost certainly going to be rewritten again, so who knows what it does.

I think the Sox will offer him a QO but he won't be coming back. I think his floor is $80M and his ceiling might be closer to $100M than we think. 

I think the Sox are better served using that money elsewhere. 

 

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I have no idea what Scott Boras's side will do, and that might be exactly what he signs for, and there's a half dozen major factors in play over the next 3 months that will influence the final number...but if I were Carlos Rodon, that's the one contract structure I wouldn't sign.

If I am signing a multi-year guaranteed deal, I'd want to get into Wheeler's range before I started thinking about that. If the CBA doesn't demolish them, I can't see how that's a terrible gamble for a team like the Yankees, they've spent way worse than that on pitching the last couple years anyway. At least Rodon has TOR ceiling. Remember with Wheeler specifically, people were talking about $75-$80 million as being fair for him late in the previous season, and then the actual FA market was way higher.

If I can't get into that range, I'll try to sign something like a Bauer deal, with a big salary in one season and quick ways out right afterwards.

There is no way in hell Rodon gets close to $120M IMO. Not even close. He’d be fortunate to get half. Feel feee to quote me if I’m wrong down the road. Certainly may be. But with his history, I don’t see it. 4/$80M I could see as about his max imo. I think 3/$55M is probably closer. But who knows. 

Edited September 2, 20214 yr by ChiSox59

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes. But worth adding that the QO rules are almost certainly going to be rewritten again, so who knows what it does.

The QO is still in effect for this coming offseason tho, yah? No way the CBO is hammered out before that deadline. 

A part of me really, really hopes that a team I don't like gives Rodon one of those 3 to 4 year deals that keeps getting thrown around Soxtalk, because that is the type of contract which will be a bad one as soon as the ink is on the paper.

13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The QO is still in effect for this coming offseason tho, yah? No way the CBO is hammered out before that deadline. 

I  would be interested to hear EXACTLY when a CBA begins.  Does it begin at the moment a season ends?  Does it have a formal date in it somewhere?  Do we ever start the technical "off-season" until we have an agreement in place, or could the cutoff be with the actual start of the next regular or spring training season?  Anyone know?

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The QO is still in effect for this coming offseason tho, yah? No way the CBO is hammered out before that deadline. 

They can offer the QO, but there is no text in the CBA about what will happen after the CBA expiration. Thus, "what is the QO Worth in draft pick compensation" will be subject to negotiations. They may well also change the value of it.

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I  would be interested to hear EXACTLY when a CBA begins.  Does it begin at the moment a season ends?  Does it have a formal date in it somewhere?  Do we ever start the technical "off-season" until we have an agreement in place, or could the cutoff be with the actual start of the next regular or spring training season?  Anyone know?

The current CBA has an expiration date of December 1. The Qualifying Offer period for offering and accepting will come before the CBA expiration. Anything that happens after December 1 basically can't happen - teams can't sign contracts without the CBA rules for what can and can't be in contracts. I believe a team could actually sign a contract prior to December 1 if they wanted to do so, but if that expires then there's no format for structuring a contract that the league has agreed to.

The next CBA will either begin on December 1, or there will likely be an "offseason lockout" because teams won't be able to do any of the transactions they need to do. Notably, there will be no arbitration offers, because there will be no arbitration agreement, and that happens in early December.

Rodon has a history of being fragile. Besides fragility, Rodon's ML record is fairly medicare except for the 4-5 months of this year. I hope he performs well this post season, but I don't trust his health and performance long term.

There are many, very big pitching names in free agency next year.  Rodon will have to wait a long while for all of those to be hashed out before someone swoops in on him as a cheap alternative.

He could be the big name in 2023 free agency if he bet on himself in what is likely to be a strike shortened season.

Here's an interesting scenario: Let's say Rodon's market value is 4/$90 mil.  Kimbrel and Hernandez's combined options amount to $22 million in 2022. Then in 2023, you are out from under $18 million for Keuchel. So, Sox could afford Rodon if they don't bring back Kimbrel and Hernandez. I would argue that Rodon's WAR > Kimbrel WAR + Hernandez WAR and that the Sox could fill a bullpen hole and a 2nd base hole cheaper than getting a TOR starter. What do you guys think?

23 minutes ago, Superstar Lamar said:

There are many, very big pitching names in free agency next year.  Rodon will have to wait a long while for all of those to be hashed out before someone swoops in on him as a cheap alternative.

He could be the big name in 2023 free agency if he bet on himself in what is likely to be a strike shortened season.

I see a bunch of big names in their mid to late 30s (Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke, Verlander, Morton, Wainright), but I only see 4 guys who are 31 and under who are free agents and who have put up 3.0+ fWAR this year (guys who you could talk about long term deals for). Gaussman, Ray, Stroman, and Rodon, and Rodon has the best fWAR of any of those guys, and is also the youngest of them.

If I were the Yankees GM, I would absolutely gamble a multi-year deal on a guy like Rodon. 

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I see a bunch of big names in their mid to late 30s (Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke, Verlander, Morton, Wainright), but I only see 4 guys who are 31 and under who are free agents and who have put up 3.0+ fWAR this year (guys who you could talk about long term deals for). Gaussman, Ray, Stroman, and Rodon, and Rodon has the best fWAR of any of those guys, and is also the youngest of them.

If I were the Yankees GM, I would absolutely gamble a multi-year deal on a guy like Rodon. 

I agree. The only reason you'd hesitate is his injury history but based on performance and the dearth of LH starters (of which Rodon might be the best in the AL), I think he'll get 4/80-100. If I were Hahn/WS, I'd consider it. 

Yeah I was thinking the ryu contract is a good comp, where his youth counteracts a lesser total body of work.

I'd pay him that though.

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I see a bunch of big names in their mid to late 30s (Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke, Verlander, Morton, Wainright), but I only see 4 guys who are 31 and under who are free agents and who have put up 3.0+ fWAR this year (guys who you could talk about long term deals for). Gaussman, Ray, Stroman, and Rodon, and Rodon has the best fWAR of any of those guys, and is also the youngest of them.

If I were the Yankees GM, I would absolutely gamble a multi-year deal on a guy like Rodon. 

I think RH will gamble a multi-year deal on Rodon as well.  Boras aside...players have a right to tell their agent to sign with their home team or whomever.  If we make the QO and continue to negotiate something like 3 years at 15-18 millinon per year...we would have a good chance.  I believe strongly that this team has a strong chemistry that players won't want to leave if they can avoid it.