It turns out that Kimbrel was a big mistake.  I wouldn't compound that mistake by getting cute with any sign and trade scams.  Don't pick up the option and move on would be my read on the best course of action.  His salary would go a long way in upgrading RF and 2nd base.  

3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

These anti Abreu posts are bizarre. A 3 WAR 1bman is the least of our problems. It's not a problem at all, in fact.

Seriously, I walked away despondent because unlike, say, Atlanta we didn't find our Max Fried. I thought Giolito was it but he shit the bed. Giolito is great. But yeah, the red sox did it somehow but it's extremely difficult to win playoff games with 4 bad starters.

I can easily see doing nothing on offense and ending up with a good offense. I can even see sacrificing some of it for some better defensive play.

But we either need a known playoff star like Scherzer to join, or at least consider bringing in some MUCH different looks, a guy that can come in and throw a bunch of curves for strikes. I was hoping Rodon would throw 65+ sliders yesterday and just turn "Rodoning" into a verb. 

I hate sinker slider combos, but maybe we go to alex wood or some left handed pitcher too. Need to break up something pitching wise. Also get me Joe Kelly.

6 minutes ago, Tony said:

You've proven you're not smart enough to comprehend the argument. It's ok. 

You haven't refuted a single thing I've stated. you've made blanket statements that were misleading or incorrect.

Sox outperformed their yearly OPS vs a majority of good teams they faced (teams over .500). The Sox didn't pitch and defend vs good teams which led to a poor record and a poor run differential. The offense is not the #1 issue with the team, it's literally the issue of least concern. That doesn't mean they shouldn't improve it, but calling me not smart enough to analyze or comprehend a statistical argument is pretty hilarious. The name calling and ridicule also is basically you surrendering to the point.

Statistical analysis is one of the few things in life I am very well educated in, in addition to having an extensive real-life background in it's utilization and processing. Confirmation bias, correlation vs causation, lack of data integrity, and misleading usage of statistics is something you see endlessly in sports conversations. In this case, you have hit a grand slam. Congratulations.

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

White Sox ERA:

vs Yankees - 4.99
vs Seattle - 5.12
vs Houston - 4.7
vs Tampa - 5.07
vs Boston - 4.81
vs Mil - 4.32
 

Total for the year - 3.73

It was the OFFENSES fault they didn't hit more flyballs and that's why they didn't beat Good teams! It wasn't the defense and pitching staff that struggled.

Any other questions, @Tony

The offense on the other hand had better OPS than their year-long average against more than half the playoff teams they played in the regular season and more than 65% of the winning teams they played.

Do you have the capability to tease that out to only starting pitching?  I'd like to see what those numbers look like.

3 minutes ago, Superstar Lamar said:

Do you have the capability to tease that out to only starting pitching?  I'd like to see what those numbers look like.

Sure - Sox Starters:

vs Yankees - 4.76 ERA
vs Seattle - 3.20 ERA (Ouch Bullpen)
vs Houston - 4.66 ERA
vs Tampa - 4.37
vs Boston - 6.84 (Lucas... whoops)
vs Milwaukee - 2.25 (ouch Bullpen)

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sure - Sox Starters:

vs Yankees - 4.76 ERA
vs Seattle - 3.20 ERA (Ouch Bullpen)
vs Houston - 4.66 ERA
vs Tampa - 4.37
vs Boston - 6.84 (Lucas... whoops)
vs Milwaukee - 2.25 (ouch Bullpen)

one more thing, if it is easy to acquire, include only the playoff starters

We are going to be placing a lot of faith in Michael Kopech becoming no worse than a middle of the rotation pitcher immediately.  I guess we had to do it eventually but I'm not just immediately penning him in as that level.

I think Larussa has to develop an approach with Keuchel that he will never see a batter a third time.  He was allowed to start the 6th too many times this year.  His days as an innings eater are done.

Edited October 13, 20214 yr by Superstar Lamar

43 minutes ago, Tony said:

You're simply worng. 

How does this compare to the other playoff teams? I'm going to guess that all teams have a better record against losing teams than winning teams. Also their run differential is better against losing teams than winning teams. Without context these numbers are meaning less.

15 minutes ago, ptatc said:

How does this compare to the other playoff teams? I'm going to guess that all teams have a better record against losing teams than winning teams. Also their run differential is better against losing teams than winning teams. Without context these numbers are meaning less.

You can look it for yourself, but here is Houston, the team that the Sox will eventually have to get past...

Rays: 4-2 

Red Sox: 5-2

Yankees: 2-4

Blue Jays: 4-2

White Sox: 5-2

Seattle: 11-8

A's: 11-8

Giants: 1-2 

Dodgers: 2-2

That's a 45-32 record against above .500 teams (when the season ended)* in 2021. 

54 minutes ago, bmags said:

But yeah, the red sox did it somehow but it's extremely difficult to win playoff games with 4 bad starters.

The Rays had the same problem. McClanahan went 5 innings 0 runs in the first game (Rays won), then Baz went 2.1 innings (3 runs) in game 2, Rasmussen went 2 innings (3 runs) in game 3, and McHugh went 2 innings (0 runs) before McClanahan came in and gave the game up (0.2 innings, 5 runs).

 

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The Sox had a higher wRC+ than 5 of those 7 teams. Are you not paying attention? wRC+ evaluates overall offensive production. Ground ball rate evaluates.... ground ball rate. Hmm, I wonder what is more important and telling. Only in your mind I guess would it be better to be worse overall offensively but hit more fly balls.

Does wRC+ adjust for the specific competition faced?  Don’t get me wrong, I think we have a really good offense in isolation and I’m a huge proponent of wRC+, but it’s still missing the context that we faced a ton of shit pitchers in the AL Central and that we have an offense that both lacks balance and is highly streaky.

19 minutes ago, almagest said:

The Rays had the same problem. McClanahan went 5 innings 0 runs in the first game (Rays won), then Baz went 2.1 innings (3 runs) in game 2, Rasmussen went 2 innings (3 runs) in game 3, and McHugh went 2 innings (0 runs) before McClanahan came in and gave the game up (0.2 innings, 5 runs).

I really wish we could have signed Charlie Morton last offseason. I don't think it was possible due to his preferences. Also getting waino...woulda been nice.

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Does wRC+ adjust for the specific competition faced?  Don’t get me wrong, I think we have a really good offense in isolation and I’m a huge proponent of wRC+, but it’s still missing the context that we faced a ton of shit pitchers in the AL Central and that we have an offense that both lacks balance and is highly streaky.

The team wRC+, OPS, whatever stat you want to us, were propped up mostly by a batting average that was 5th in MLB, but their ISO was 17th. So the Sox were hitting a lot of singles and not producing much power. The five teams left in the postseason are all in the top 9 in ISO.

The sox had a good OBP and an great BB/K rate, but without the power it just didn't produce enough runs. Especially against playoff level pitching, where it's much easier to run into a few fastballs and get homers out of them than it is to string a bunch of hits together to get runs.

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

I really wish we could have signed Charlie Morton last offseason. I don't think it was possible due to his preferences. Also getting waino...woulda been nice.

Wheeler would have been perfect, no Keuchel, and a a TOR starter. Damn his wife!

1 minute ago, CentralChamps21 said:

The team wRC+, OPS, whatever stat you want to us, were propped up mostly by a batting average that was 5th in MLB, but their ISO was 17th. So the Sox were hitting a lot of singles and not producing much power. The five teams left in the postseason are all in the top 9 in ISO.

The sox had a good OBP and an great BB/K rate, but without the power it just didn't produce enough runs. Especially against playoff level pitching, where it's much easier to run into a few fastballs and get homers out of them than it is to string a bunch of hits together to get runs.

If you want to feel disgusting look at their GB% and FB%. Top 3 in GB% and worst in FB%. We were also hitting 46% ground balls AT HOME... worst in the league. Hitting approach needs some major work. I also checked the team in September because surely that was a bench player thing but nope, still bad at full strength. Saw more of the same in the postseason as we all know.

With this core theres no excuse to be driving the ball into the ground like this. None. Guess who leads the league in a low GB% and high FB%? LAD, HOU, BOS, SFG, ATL, TBR.. 

Definitely feels like we’ll be capped out around $170M next year.  If so, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Hahn to address all the holes on this team with quality additions.  Even by moving Kimbrel, we may only $25M or so to work with, so expect a couple Adam Eaton type signings this offseason.

 

2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

If you want to feel disgusting look at their GB% and FB%. Top 3 in GB% and worst in FB%. We were also hitting 46% ground balls AT HOME... worst in the league. Hitting approach needs some major work. I also checked the team in September because surely that was a bench player thing but nope, still bad at full strength. Saw more of the same in the postseason as we all know.

With this core theres no excuse to be driving the ball into the ground like this. None. Guess who leads the league in a low GB% and high FB%? LAD, HOU, BOS, SFG, ATL, TBR.. 

All those things are related. A high GB%, high AVG, high BB/K rate, and low ISO are all results of a high contact approach. Luis Robert might be the rare talent in the lineup who can cut down on his strikeouts, make more contact, and still hit for power, but not everybody has that level of talent.

I think a lot of the problem may stem from pitch recognition. For a team that had stats that reflect a high contact approach, they still chased an awful lot of breaking balls out of the zone, and I think that's also why they made such poor contact on fastballs in the middle of the plate.

How much are guys like Marte going to cost? 

$25m over 2 years with an option?

I'm assuming the Sox are not going to be in on the really big ticket guys. 

1 minute ago, Rusty_Kuntz said:

How much are guys like Marte going to cost? 

$25m over 2 years with an option?

I'm assuming the Sox are not going to be in on the really big ticket guys. 

Probably better than that.

is the cba negotiation this offseason?

6 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

Probably better than that.

Better meaning lower? 

I do better with the NFL in pricing free agents. 

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

is the cba negotiation this offseason?

yes it is, highly likely going to be a lockout

6 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

yes it is, highly likely going to be a lockout

woof. Honestly, somehow, forgot about that. Nobody is going to sign a deal in november/dec unless some miraculous progress is made. What a bummer.

22 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Definitely feels like we’ll be capped out around $170M next year.  If so, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Hahn to address all the holes on this team with quality additions.  Even by moving Kimbrel, we may only $25M or so to work with, so expect a couple Adam Eaton type signings this offseason.

 

I believe they have more wiggle room than you are stating, especially if they let Kimbrel walk. They need to spend around $50M for a SP, 2B, RF, and a couple quality bullpen arms to legitimately contend for a WS championship. They can do it if they spend wisely, Hahn doesn't feel the need to settle for mediocrity or worse before Christmas. In this instance, the CBA will help because I'm not sure there will be much of a market until after the CBA is settled beyond signing team/player options.

Current Commitments (includes 2021 / 2022 buyouts & 2022 Arbitration estimates by MLB Trade Rumors): $120.3M for 15 players

• Old Guys $90.0M (5 Players): Abreu $19.7; Keuchel $19.5; Lynn $18.5; Grandal $18.3; Hendriks $13.0; Kimbrel $1.0 (buyout).
• Core $30.3M (10 Players): Giolito $7.9; Jimenez $6.5M; Robert $6.0; Lopez $2.8; Bummer $2,5; Engel $2.2; [Cease, Sheets, Kopech and Crochet $0.6M each].

This is why I don't like signing / moving Kimbrel, it's another mistake because the Sox are likely going to eat a substantial portion of that contract. They were the only team to spend more than $11M AAV last season on a reliever (Hand and Rosenthal the only other relievers over $10M).