On 11/5/2021 at 5:21 AM, caulfield12 said:

Conforto hit free agency one year too late, unfortunately; after posting a spectacular 154 OPS+ in the shortened 2020, he managed only a league-average 101 OPS+ in '21, and ask any Mets fan, it sure felt like less than “league average.” The ongoing uncertainty in the Mets' front office isn’t helping matters, though they would reportedly extend him an offer anyway,understandable given his track record of success. But would he accept? The $18.4 million qualifying offer would be a sizable raise over the $12.3 million he made this year, and he'd be stepping into an extremely uncertain market given the year he just had. At 29, he might well prefer to head into free agency next year coming off a better season than the mediocre one he just completed.

Prediction: Receives offer, accepts it

 

Rodón’s path has been wild. A year ago, the oft-injured lefty was non-tendered by the White Sox, who months later signed him to a mere one-year, $3 million deal without a promise of a rotation spot. They were rewarded with a stunning season, as Rodón threw a no-hitter, made the All-Star team and will probably get some Cy Young votes. The problem, given his history, is that he had repeated issues with shoulder soreness down the stretch; he pitched just 28 innings in the final two months. This is a tricky one, but because Rodón was so good this year (and managed to hit 99.4 mph in his brief ALDS appearance) that we think he’ll try his luck on the market.

Prediction: Receives offer, declines it

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-the-2021-qualifying-offer-choices?partnerId=zh-20211104-496309-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211104-496309-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=nCdHRqxaITklTvrd%2Fd1gnoo2TStugw9Uj3%2FJYC8%2B5FW%2F7j%2B0BVgaVzrGxBQpcgnT&bt_ts=1636032644134

 

I think Conforto may end up accepting the QO, but he may very well want to get away from the Mets too as the continuously spin their tires in the mud in the East. After a horrendous start that saw him get hurt, he turned it around offensively in the second part of 2021. Teams may view his poor start to 2021 as an outlier and not necessarily the player he is (or will be) moving forward.

 

32 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

I think Conforto may end up accepting the QO, but he may very well want to get away from the Mets too as the continuously spin their tires in the mud in the East. After a horrendous start that saw him get hurt, he turned it around offensively in the second part of 2021. Teams may view his poor start to 2021 as an outlier and not necessarily the player he is (or will be) moving forward.

 

Honestly, the OF market isn’t that deep and given he’s left-handed, there should be plenty of suitors.  He’ll lose a little bit on the AAV side of things due to the draft pick attached to him, but I’d be shocked if he takes the QO.

I like Conforto but no way I give up a draft pick to sign him.

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://nypost.com/2021/11/06/mets-give-qualifying-offer-to-michael-conforto-noah-syndergaard/
Conforto and Syndegaard offered, Post seems mostly concerned about Nationals and Phillies…

I don’t see anything in the article that mentions the Nationals or the Phillies. Where are you seeing this?

4 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

I like Conforto but no way I give up a draft pick to sign him.

Why?

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Why?

I guess if Rodon gets and rejects the QO then I'd do it because the picks even out, but I don't like giving up draft picks. They're really valuable.

The Sox don't want to pay Rodon $18M and Rodon does not want another 1 yr deal.  If they offfer it it's because they're confident he's going to turn it down.  

Conforto's gonna get paid.  

1 hour ago, CentralChamps21 said:

I like Conforto but no way I give up a draft pick to sign him.

Considering how bad the Sox have been at drafting outside of the early first round, give up the pick.

10 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The Sox don't want to pay Rodon $18M and Rodon does not want another 1 yr deal.  If they offfer it it's because they're confident he's going to turn it down.  

Conforto's gonna get paid.  

$18 million is a bargain for what he provided so them not wanting to pay that is a red flag IMO. The Sox have to offer the QO to protect themselves IMO but I’m not sure how Rodon turns it down. It’s very risky 

Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said:

$18 million is a bargain for what he provided so them not wanting to pay that is a red flag IMO. The Sox have to offer the QO to protect themselves IMO but I’m not sure how Rodon turns it down. It’s very risky 

It is. But the Sox are extremely likely to win the division next year. Giving $18 mil to someone that you aren't confidant will help in the playoffs is useless.

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

$18 million is a bargain for what he provided so them not wanting to pay that is a red flag IMO. The Sox have to offer the QO to protect themselves IMO but I’m not sure how Rodon turns it down. It’s very risky 

He would get a $15M pay increase and the odds of him even coming close to repeating that performance is just about zero.  A draft pick isn't worth it.  

On 11/4/2021 at 10:42 AM, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

well sure, he could sign 4/60 (15 mil) nd that would be good for him

Without research and just thinking as I type,  knowing there are always a couple gms willing to gamble. 

On the standard kind of deal side he'd get offered three years with options on a fourth at about $12 mil to $14 mil each. I'm not seeing a 3/45 with his history. 

So he'd face 1/16 with a huge 2023 free agent contract if he's successful for a full season or 3/36.  

I think that becomes a tough choice for him. 

But as mentioned, it's just tossing my first thoughts out there. I'll backpedal in a moment with other predictions. 

2 hours ago, maloney.adam said:

I don’t see anything in the article that mentions the Nationals or the Phillies. Where are you seeing this?

Another NY Post article today that I won’t open since not willing to subscribe….basically predicated on losing Wheeler to NL East rival and speculating those two teams could kill two birds with one stone taking him away from the Mets.

Edited November 7, 20214 yr by caulfield12

12 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He would get a $15M pay increase and the odds of him even coming close to repeating that performance is just about zero.  A draft pick isn't worth it.  

I don’t see how it tracks that they are okay picking up a Kimbrel option in order to trade but they wouldn’t do same with Rodon even if they didn’t want to keep him.

Its a one year deal. Guys like Smyly were getting 11 last year on a lot less results the previous year. I don’t see an issue moving that.

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don’t see how it tracks that they are okay picking up a Kimbrel option in order to trade but they wouldn’t do same with Rodon even if they didn’t want to keep him.

Its a one year deal. Guys like Smyly were getting 11 last year on a lot less results the previous year. I don’t see an issue moving that.

They're going to trade Kimbrel. I guess if Rodon accepts they could try to trade him too but I haven't heard that as a likely scenario.  

Rodon will probably reject the QO if offered and if I were the Sox I wouldn’t try signing him to a long term deal. Boras will try to squeeze as much money from teams as possible and he’s not even worth that right now with only having one good season and having shoulder issues.

I bet they trade Kimbrel to the Phillies or the Rays.

Edited November 7, 20214 yr by maloney.adam

33 minutes ago, Sarava said:

It is. But the Sox are extremely likely to win the division next year. Giving $18 mil to someone that you aren't confidant will help in the playoffs is useless.

Rodon was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Not enough innings but he was worth 5 fWAR. Are we just assuming that Kopech replicates that because I’m certainly not. 

32 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He would get a $15M pay increase and the odds of him even coming close to repeating that performance is just about zero.  A draft pick isn't worth it.  

He wasn’t a $3 million player though by value. Guys that productive make $30 million per season. It’s a gamble but the upside is a #1 starter for significantly less then he’s worth. 

14 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

I bet they trade Kimbrel to the Phillies or the Rays.

I think Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers could also be in consideration 

5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

He wasn’t a $3 million player though by value. Guys that productive make $30 million per season. It’s a gamble but the upside is a #1 starter for significantly less then he’s worth. 

He was a $3M player because no one wanted him.  Giving him a 600% pay increase based off one season with his injury and makeup history is a bad process.  Again they could offer him the QO they just have to be confident he's going to turn it down.

3 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He was a $3M player because no one wanted him.  Giving him a 600% pay increase based off one season with his injury and makeup history is a bad process.  Again they could offer him the QO they just have to be confident he's going to turn it down.

This is where I completely disagree. They should be willing to spend $18 million because replacing his production will cost a hell of a lot more than that anyway 

26 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This is where I completely disagree. They should be willing to spend $18 million because replacing his production will cost a hell of a lot more than that anyway 

I think they should still extend the QO but I don’t think he’s worth a long term contract right now with having only one good season and an injury but yes they should by all means offer the QO. Let him prove that he can have back to back good seasons and stay healthy throughout a whole season.

Edited November 7, 20214 yr by maloney.adam

Dumb question.  Are the Sox able to talk with Boras/Rodon to see if he would accept or reject the QO before they make a decision?

Didn't KW threaten Orlando Cabrera back in the day not to take the QO?

3 minutes ago, HoosierSox said:

Dumb question.  Are the Sox able to talk with Boras/Rodon to see if he would accept or reject the QO before they make a decision?

I wouldn't see why not, but I am also pretty sure Boras wouldn't show his hand.