Luis Robert vs Frank Thomas - first 140 game comparison

[Greg Hibbard]

Luis Robert’s first 140 games feature 6.1 WAR (on pace for a 7 WAR for his first 162) with a .290/.340/.508/.848 with plenty of power (28 HR and 33 2B). 
 

Frank Thomas had 9.3 WAR over his first 218 games (1990-91, average 6.91 WAR per 162). His August of 1991 numbers were insane, just after he crossed the first 162 games played mark. For his first 140 games (all of 1990 and his first half of 1991) he had a better average / ops and (astronomically!) better walk rate but slightly worse power numbers than Robert - just 21 homers and 27 doubles and and no GG defense to boot. 
 

Who do you like better for their first 140 games? Is Luis perhaps set to become the best White Sox player ever in terms of total production over his first 162 games? Or does Thomas still have the edge? Is there anyone else in the past who comes close to these numbers?
 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2022 by Greg Hibbard

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Luis Robert’s first 140 games feature 6.1 WAR (on pace for a 7 WAR for his first 162) with a .290/.340/.508/.848 with plenty of power (28 HR and 33 2B). 
 

Frank Thomas had 9.3 WAR over his first 218 games (1990-91, average 6.91 WAR per 162). His August of 1991 numbers were insane, just after he crossed the first 162 games played mark. For his first 140 games (all of 1990 and his first half of 1991) he had a better average / ops and (astronomically!) better walk rate but slightly worse power numbers than Robert - just 21 homers and 27 doubles and and no GG defense to boot. 
 

Who do you like better for their first 140 games? Is Luis perhaps set to become the best White Sox player ever in terms of total production over his first 162 games? Or does Thomas still have the edge? Is there anyone else in the past who comes close to these numbers?
 

 

 

 

He will not be as good of a hitter. However his defense does elevate him relatively. 

[almagest]

4 hours ago, ptatc said:

He will not be as good of a hitter. However his defense does elevate him relatively. 

That's not even a slight on Luis. Thomas is one of the best right handed hitters ever.

[ptatc]

28 minutes ago, almagest said:

That's not even a slight on Luis. Thomas is one of the best right handed hitters ever.

Correct. I was just going with the comparison.  I think Robert is going g to be a really good hitter.

[Balta1701]

I know this isn’t Luis’s fault, but it’s useful context. Luis is 24 right now and turns 25 in August.

Frank debuted when he was 22, and turned 23 at the end of May the next year. So Frank did that s*** as a 22 year old turning 23, right out of Auburn.

If you group together Frank’s age 25-26 seasons, comparable to Robert this year and next, that MF was a Jerry Reinsdorf labor dispute away from a nearly 200 OPS+ over 2 years. For comparison, Vlad Jr was at 167 last year. As is he narrowly outperforms Pujols’s best 2 seasons and Frank lost 2 months from his best year. That's ludicrous for a guy steroid free.

I can’t believe we actually watched a guy put up those numbers.

[Greg Hibbard]

39 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I know this isn’t Luis’s fault, but it’s useful context. Luis is 24 right now and turns 25 in August.

Frank debuted when he was 22, and turned 23 at the end of May the next year. So Frank did that s*** as a 22 year old turning 23, right out of Auburn.

If you group together Frank’s age 25-26 seasons, comparable to Robert this year and next, that MF was a Jerry Reinsdorf labor dispute away from a nearly 200 OPS+ over 2 years. For comparison, Vlad Jr was at 167 last year. As is he narrowly outperforms Pujols’s best 2 seasons and Frank lost 2 months from his best year. That's ludicrous for a guy steroid free.

I can’t believe we actually watched a guy put up those numbers.

This was my initial thought too. Frank was absolutely insane as an offensive specimen his first 7 full years in the league. For my money, it’s him and Pujols as the best right handed hitters in the last several decades 

I do think it’s remarkable that Luis May out WAR him though. 

[thedoctor]

frank arrived at the exact perfect time for me. him being instantly amazing and me having a ton of disposable time on my hands to watch him play. he introduced me to the idea of stopping whatever I was doing when he was up. 

[wegner]

1 minute ago, thedoctor said:

frank arrived at the exact perfect time for me. him being instantly amazing and me having a ton of disposable time on my hands to watch him play. he introduced me to the idea of stopping whatever I was doing when he was up. 

I agree....Frank at bats were must see TV whenever possible.  

[chitownsportsfan]

Speak to the greatness of both to be the conversation. Frank was the greatest hitter I think any of us 32 and older or so have ever seen. Robert is the most naturally gifted all around athlete us same folks have seen on the South Side. 

Watching Frank work a count, even against a good pitcher and then lace a (what was probably) an 110mph double off the bat into the power alley in his prime was so fun. And so is watching Robert's athletic gifts translating all over the field.

[CentralChamps21]

Peak Frank Thomas had a 7 year run where he averaged an OPS+ of 183.

If Luis Robert reaches that mark in even one season where he plays 125+ games that would be remarkable.

That said, Robert's defensive value gives him a chance to be a more valuable player than Frank in his prime.

[JoshPR]

10 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Speak to the greatness of both to be the conversation. Frank was the greatest hitter I think any of us 32 and older or so have ever seen. Robert is the most naturally gifted all around athlete us same folks have seen on the South Side. 

Watching Frank work a count, even against a good pitcher and then lace a (what was probably) an 110mph double off the bat into the power alley in his prime was so fun. And so is watching Robert's athletic gifts translating all over the field.

He would take these borderline pitches like nothing. The foul balls off until he frustrated you and you made a mistake

[Balta1701]

13 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

This was my initial thought too. Frank was absolutely insane as an offensive specimen his first 7 full years in the league. For my money, it’s him and Pujols as the best right handed hitters in the last several decades 

I do think it’s remarkable that Luis May out WAR him though. 

Their birthdays don’t exactly match up, but if I go to the start of the season where he turned 25, Frank already had generated 16.3 rWAR. Yes some of it is injury and COVID, but Luis has a ton of catching up to do if you want to compare those two on WAR.

[ShoeLessRob]

I wish I was older during prime Frank. 

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, ShoeLessRob said:

I wish I was older during prime Frank. 

You did miss amazing at bats. It was truly must see.

[JoshPR]

4 hours ago, ptatc said:

You did miss amazing at bats. It was truly must see.

Yes indeed. 

[Greg Hibbard]

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Their birthdays don’t exactly match up, but if I go to the start of the season where he turned 25, Frank already had generated 16.3 rWAR. Yes some of it is injury and COVID, but Luis has a ton of catching up to do if you want to compare those two on WAR.

Going by fWAR (why is rWAR better by the way? I’m not familiar with it), yes Luis will probably be 6 WAR behind Frank by the time his age 25 season begins, and will have quite a hard time keeping pace with Franks first few years. 

But Interestingly, Frank only had 12.3 total fWAR over his last 8 seasons in the league (about a 1.5 WAR average per year). Yes a lot of injuries, but his lack of any defensive contribution meant that all he had was his excellent (but not otherworldly) offensive contribution when healthy. I think if Luis stays healthy he has a shot at an 80 WAR career simply because he’s probably always going to be an excellent defender and speed threat.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Greg Hibbard

[Texsox]

On 5/7/2022 at 8:58 PM, wegner said:

I agree....Frank at bats were must see TV whenever possible.  

That's my go to comment about Frank. Every time he stepped to the plate an entire bar would quiet down and watch. Northside, southside, suburbs, it didn't matter. 

Robert may get there. 

As I remember it Frank was moved to DH for much the same reasons Fisk was moved to left, longevity. Frank was athletic enough to cover. The DH move allowed him to bulk up a bit which probably enhanced his power numbers. 

[Balta1701]

9 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Going by fWAR (why is rWAR better by the way? I’m not familiar with it), yes Luis will probably be 6 WAR behind Frank by the time his age 25 season begins, and will have quite a hard time keeping pace with Franks first few years. 

But Interestingly, Frank only had 12.3 total fWAR over his last 8 seasons in the league (about a 1.5 WAR average per year). Yes a lot of injuries, but his lack of any defensive contribution meant that all he had was his excellent (but not otherworldly) offensive contribution when healthy. I think if Luis stays healthy he has a shot at an 80 WAR career simply because he’s probably always going to be an excellent defender and speed threat.

rWAR is baseball reference, which I used literally because I had it open. Anyway, Fangraphs is not particularly different. 

Something notable here. Frank turned 25 in May of 1993. Luis turns 25 this August 3. The “age” line on Fg/BR both show this as Luis’s age 24 season, but they show 1993 as Frank’s age 25 season, because of some rule on where their birthdays fall in the year. 

Luis has put up 5 WAR in his career so far. If I assume he stays on an MVP pace and has no further injuries he might be at 9 on his birthday. On his 25th birthday Frank had put up just under 19 fWAR. If 60 WAR is the minimum for a HOF player, Frank was 1/3 of the way there when he turned 25. This is a big gap.

Again I write this not to bury Robert but merely to praise Frank. Robert is doing excellent work right now, but saying he has a good chance of being a Hall of Famer is literally projecting more than 90% of his future performance, and there is a long way to go first.

Just to pick one more comp, Tatis is 23 this year, he has already put up 13.6 WAR, but I don’t consider him a sure fire Hall of Famer yet as I genuinely am worried about the toll on his body early in his career. There are lots of guys who are excellent players who do not put up 80 WAR careers.

[Greg Hibbard]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

rWAR is baseball reference, which I used literally because I had it open. Anyway, Fangraphs is not particularly different. 

Something notable here. Frank turned 25 in May of 1993. Luis turns 25 this August 3. The “age” line on Fg/BR both show this as Luis’s age 24 season, but they show 1993 as Frank’s age 25 season, because of some rule on where their birthdays fall in the year. 

Luis has put up 5 WAR in his career so far. If I assume he stays on an MVP pace and has no further injuries he might be at 9 on his birthday. On his 25th birthday Frank had put up just under 19 fWAR. If 60 WAR is the minimum for a HOF player, Frank was 1/3 of the way there when he turned 25. This is a big gap.

Again I write this not to bury Robert but merely to praise Frank. Robert is doing excellent work right now, but saying he has a good chance of being a Hall of Famer is literally projecting more than 90% of his future performance, and there is a long way to go first.

Just to pick one more comp, Tatis is 23 this year, he has already put up 13.6 WAR, but I don’t consider him a sure fire Hall of Famer yet as I genuinely am worried about the toll on his body early in his career. There are lots of guys who are excellent players who do not put up 80 WAR careers.

Oh interesting, I’ve always seen rWAR referred to as bWAR. It seems like Robert right now has 6.2 rWAR. Could he conceivably arrive at 10 by his birthday?

I think we all agree that the key to Luis being a hall of famer seems to be his health. As streaky as he is at times, he seems to have no problem evening out performance over a large enough sample size. It seems like if he gets reps, he is a WAR machine. 

[JoeC]

The other thing holding Luis back (besides health) is his ability to identify pitches. A sub-5% walk rate is going to make him far more prone to feast-or-famine. For long stretches of time, pitchers know they can get Luis to get himself out swinging at bad pitches. Good walk rates (good batting eyes) are clearly indicative of guys who won't get themselves out - pitchers need to face them.

Luis has immense raw talent, but not nearly enough to make up for swinging at everything in sight like a Vlad Guerrero Sr.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Oh interesting, I’ve always seen rWAR referred to as bWAR. It seems like Robert right now has 6.2 rWAR. Could he conceivably arrive at 10 by his birthday?

I think we all agree that the key to Luis being a hall of famer seems to be his health. As streaky as he is at times, he seems to have no problem evening out performance over a large enough sample size. It seems like if he gets reps, he is a WAR machine. 

For a while Baseball Prospectus had a version so they got called bWAR and Baseball-Reference got called rWAR.