5 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Tatis - .743 OPS. >375 PA's once in 5 years. Season ending shoulder injury. 80 game PED suspension - owed $325 million into age 36 season

Machado - .654 OPS. Owed $333 million into age 40 season

Bogaerts -  .742 OPS. Owed $255 million into age 40 season

 

Obviously everyone would rather have the Padres current roster, but they're in serious trouble if the team continues to underachieve. 

We can look at this another way. 

2019=3.1 fWAR

2020=3.3 fWAR  (9.0 pro rated over 162 games, played 59/60) 

2021=7.2 fWAR

2022=0.0 fWAR

2023=1.2 / 36 games   we can average this out and put him at 3.6 projected

 

Looking at things most pessimistically

14.8 fWAR over 4.4 possible seasons of playing time

=3.4 fWAR per season

 

Optimistic viewpoint

3.1 plus 9.0 plus 7.2 plus 3.4=22.7 / 4=5.7 average

adding in another year out for injury to wrist from motorcycle and PEDS

22.7/5=4.54 fWAR

3.4 plus 5.7 plus 4.54

 

Average of all three=4.55 fWAR

 

14.8 actual fWAR x $8 million per fWAR=$118.4 million of value created

 

• $10M signing bonus
• 21:$1M, 22:$5M, 23:$7M, 24:$11M, 25:$20M, 26:$20M, 27:$25M, 28:$25M, 29-36:$36M annually

 

Age 24  $7 million

Age 25  $11 million

Age 26  $20 million (cheaper than Moncada 2024) 

Age 27  $20 million (cheaper than Moncada) 

Age 28  $25 million  (equal to Moncada 2025 option) 

Age 29  $25 million (equal to 2025 Moncada option) 

Ages 30-31-32-33-34-35   $36 million x 6 years=$216 million

 

$324 million remaining to pay/12 years

$27 million per season average salary

$118.4 million of value created for Padres already

Needs $205.6 for break even

25.7 fWAR / 12 == 2.14 per season

 

Full contract value returned at 4.55 fWAR would be repaid any time between age 27 and 29 seasons... before he even turns 30. 

Even if you stripped away 2019/20, it would still be paid off between ages 29-31. 

 

It's actually the Bogaerts and Machado deals that are much riskier. 

Edited June 2, 20232 yr by caulfield12

9 hours ago, baseballgalaly said:

I hate to say this, but the Sox are gonna have to draft, internationally sign, and develop their way out of this mess. 

There's not much if anything of value to other teams on this roster. 

Of course. And they are going to have to hire someone with a clue of how to put together a winning MLB roster. These dopes play the lottery every year. It worked once. 

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Of course. And they are going to have to hire someone with a clue of how to put together a winning MLB roster. These dopes play the lottery every year. It worked once. 

should hire someone 34-42   from the next generation of more analytically driven drafting scouting evaluation/baseball ops

18 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

With the later deadline it helps sellers, so yea, no reason to trade now. Wait until late July and hope a dozen teams in each league think they are in contention.

I can think of one player to sell ASAP and that's Grandal. Sell while he's still relatively healthy with a decent OBP. Eat some salary if you have to. They won't because I'm sure in their minds they think they need his bat. But it will become apparent soon enough when they start losing to the upcoming better teams and drop to 15-20 below .500 that this season and the window and is over and falling below mediocrity has begun.

I know Hahn knows it's over no matter how much he sugarcoats it as he must do for the fans and media.

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

should hire someone 34-42   from the next generation of more analytically driven drafting scouting evaluation/baseball ops

Great idea and maybe steal a page from the Rays and Dodgers, in how they found someone young and sharp.

Andrew Friedman - 2005 - became GM of the Rays at 28 years old.

                                 - 2015 - became President of the Dodgers at 38 years old.

                                 - Currently still Pres of the Dodgers and only 46 years old.

Sadly Reinsdorf is too arrogant and ignorant to understand this concept. Until he is gone and the team is sold, he will keep promoting inept GM & VP executives within. 

5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Of course. And they are going to have to hire someone with a clue of how to put together a winning MLB roster. These dopes play the lottery every year. It worked once. 

Yes they do! It needs to come from the outside. No more internal promotions. We must go steal a top GM from a baseball organization that knows how to build a winning roster from the scouting, drafting, developing prospects, trades, FA and INTL signings. 

Edited June 2, 20232 yr by The Kids Can Play

19 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Dylan Cease should not be a guy the White Sox trade this season given his current performance, as no one will give up what it should take to get him - multiple top 100-ish prospects. Let's look at why.

Dylan Cease's FIP this year is 4.4, his expected ERA based on stat cast is 4.63, his 4.88 ERA isn't out of line with that. His K-rate/9 of 9.77 is well down from the 11.1 last year and the 12.28 in 2021. His walk rate is his worst since 2020. The average exit velocity he has given up is the worst of his career.

His fastball is down a full 1 mph from last year. Furthermore, last year his fastball started poorly but improved a lot by May, this year May was not obviously better than April. 

Right now, the White Sox would ask for a very high price for Dylan Cease, and anyone asking about him would expect to get him at a massive discount because not only is his ERA bad but the underlying numbers also suggest that he's not a very good pitcher. This could of course change if he were to pick up his velocity and find a groove over the next 2 months, but right now, Dylan Cease will not return anything of substantial value because he's not a particularly strong pitcher. 

If he doesn't find a groove very soon, then holding onto him through 2024's trade deadline and hoping for better results with a different pitching coach seems like the appropriate strategy. 

If Cease does find a groove, then the White Sox will win a couple more games and that will be all Hahn needs to justify that "If we keep playing like this we'll be right there at the end" (Rick Hahn, 2015). 

I agree 100 percent in keeping Cease and hope you can get him back to 2022 form next season, in order to get a better haul on a trade. However the scary and sad thing is, between Katz and the other pitching instructors/coaches in the Sox organization, the Sox will probably be incapable of finding the necessary knowledge and tweaks to get Cease improved. 

 

You guys realize that in order to steal one of these bright young minds from another organization it requires you to have an owner who prioritizes winning over everything else and will go out and get that guy to. We do not have that. We have the guy who is ok finishing below .500 and in 3rd/4th place as long as you were close in the end.

You know, I think I'd like the following answering style from Rick Hahn than the typical bs he usually serves up....

 

 

4 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Great idea and maybe steal a page from the Rays and Dodgers, in how they found someone young and sharp.

Andrew Friedman - 2005 - became GM of the Rays at 28 years old.

                                 - 2015 - became President of the Dodgers at 38 years old.

                                 - Currently still Pres of the Dodgers and only 46 years old.

Sadly Reinsdorf is too arrogant and ignorant to understand this concept. Until he is gone and the team is sold, he will keep promoting inept GM & VP executives within. 

Williams and Hahn were very young when they started with the White Sox.

The insane thing is all of the great baseball minds that passed through that organization in the 80s and the only one left is Kenny Williams. 

4 hours ago, T R U said:

You guys realize that in order to steal one of these bright young minds from another organization it requires you to have an owner who prioritizes winning over everything else and will go out and get that guy to. We do not have that. We have the guy who is ok finishing below .500 and in 3rd/4th place as long as you were close in the end.

yes, that's why realistically we need to hope for a sale of the team or JR dies in the near future. That's basically where we are at. Plus try "stealing" one these GM's away from another team means we actually are an attractive organization to join...

4 hours ago, T R U said:

You guys realize that in order to steal one of these bright young minds from another organization it requires you to have an owner who prioritizes winning over everything else and will go out and get that guy to. We do not have that. We have the guy who is ok finishing below .500 and in 3rd/4th place as long as you were close in the end.

I do and you're absolutely correct.

That is why I said in my post just earlier and many other times in this forum, until this POS loser owner is gone and the team sold, this will never happen...although it truly does need to happen someday, if we ever want to be one of the great consistent winning teams. 

As long as my buddies are running the team it's all good. 

47 minutes ago, pcq said:

As long as my buddies are running the team it's all good. 

 

21 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

We can look at this another way. 

2019=3.1 fWAR

2020=3.3 fWAR  (9.0 pro rated over 162 games, played 59/60) 

2021=7.2 fWAR

2022=0.0 fWAR

2023=1.2 / 36 games   we can average this out and put him at 3.6 projected

 

Looking at things most pessimistically

14.8 fWAR over 4.4 possible seasons of playing time

=3.4 fWAR per season

 

Optimistic viewpoint

3.1 plus 9.0 plus 7.2 plus 3.4=22.7 / 4=5.7 average

adding in another year out for injury to wrist from motorcycle and PEDS

22.7/5=4.54 fWAR

3.4 plus 5.7 plus 4.54

 

Average of all three=4.55 fWAR

 

14.8 actual fWAR x $8 million per fWAR=$118.4 million of value created

 

• $10M signing bonus
• 21:$1M, 22:$5M, 23:$7M, 24:$11M, 25:$20M, 26:$20M, 27:$25M, 28:$25M, 29-36:$36M annually

 

Age 24  $7 million

Age 25  $11 million

Age 26  $20 million (cheaper than Moncada 2024) 

Age 27  $20 million (cheaper than Moncada) 

Age 28  $25 million  (equal to Moncada 2025 option) 

Age 29  $25 million (equal to 2025 Moncada option) 

Ages 30-31-32-33-34-35   $36 million x 6 years=$216 million

 

$324 million remaining to pay/12 years

$27 million per season average salary

$118.4 million of value created for Padres already

Needs $205.6 for break even

25.7 fWAR / 12 == 2.14 per season

 

Full contract value returned at 4.55 fWAR would be repaid any time between age 27 and 29 seasons... before he even turns 30. 

Even if you stripped away 2019/20, it would still be paid off between ages 29-31. 

 

It's actually the Bogaerts and Machado deals that are much riskier. 

Well, no s%*# the Machado and Bogaerts contracts are riskier. They're both in their 30's with sub .800 OPS's and owed about $550 million combined. Tatis is risky because he's an idiot that's already been popped, had a season ending shoulder injury and has had to move the OF. All 3 of those contracts are potentially terrible, and they're all on the same mid market team. I mean, at least they're not the Mets? Do you hang out on the Padres board and talk as much s%*# about Preller?

Edited June 3, 20232 yr by TaylorStSox

14 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Well, no s%*# the Machado and Bogaerts contracts are riskier. They're both in their 30's with sub .800 OPS's and owed about $550 million combined. Tatis is risky because he's an idiot that's already been popped, had a season ending shoulder injury and has had to move the OF. All 3 of those contracts are potentially terrible, and they're all on the same mid market team. I mean, at least they're not the Mets? Do you hang out on the Padres board and talk as much s%*# about Preller?

So you think the White Sox are in a better position? 

One thing is for sure... if you never take a big risk and swing for the fences, you'll just end up with 2013-2023 White Sox baseball. 

The attendance numbers and tv ratings tell the story of which approach the fans would prefer. 

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So you think the White Sox are in a better position? 

One thing is for sure... if you never take a big risk and swing for the fences, you'll just end up with 2013-2023 White Sox baseball. 

The attendance numbers and tv ratings tell the story of which approach the fans would prefer. 

I prefer the White Sox approach in that there's a path to recovery. The only thing saving the Padres is that their owner is uber rich and apparently doesnt care about wasting money. They're both failed teams that had different approaches. The Sox suck. The Padres suck.

Edited June 3, 20232 yr by TaylorStSox

2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I prefer the White Sox approach in that there's a path to recovery. The only thing saving the Padres is that their owner is uber rich and apparently doesnt care about wasting money. They're both failed teams that had different approaches. The Sox suck. The Padres suck.

So the Phillies and Padres both suck because they actually got to the NLCS or WS last year but are struggling this year?   They put a product out on thev field that that draws sellouts and Top 5 attendance, which the White Sox haven't come close to doing for 17 years.  Instead of lying down against the Dodgers' dynasty, they dare to compete with them instead of playing the Rockies' role in one of three or four smallest markets in. baseball... sounds terrible for fans. 

And by that narrow definition, everyone sucks. 

The Dodgers can't win a big game.  Neither can the Yankees. 

The Rays make the playoffs pretty consistently, but never win it all and drive their pitching staffs into the ground. 

So you're only left with the Astros and Braves as the two "success fullest" franchises. 

Both of those teams were caught up in front office and coaching staff cheating/tampering scandals and had officials banned for life or blackballed from the sport. 

Nobody else remotely qualifies. 

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So the Phillies and Padres both suck because they actually got to the NLCS or WS last year but are struggling this year?   They put a product out on thev field that that draws sellouts and Top 5 attendance, which the White Sox haven't come close to doing for 17 years.  Instead of lying down against the Dodgers' dynasty, they dare to compete with them instead of playing the Rockies' role in one of three or four smallest markets in. baseball... sounds terrible for fans. 

And by that narrow definition, everyone sucks. 

The Dodgers can't win a big game.  Neither can the Yankees. 

The Rays make the playoffs pretty consistently, but never win it all and drive their pitching staffs into the ground. 

So you're only left with the Astros and Braves as the two "success fullest" franchises. 

Both of those teams were caught up in front office and coaching staff cheating/tampering scandals and had officials banned for life or blackballed from the sport. 

Nobody else remotely qualifies. 

You forgot the Cardinals.

31 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

You forgot the Cardinals.

They're in an even worse position than the Padres according to FG. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/underperforming-mlb-teams-2023

Just blew a big lead to the Pirates and 8 games under .500, last place in the Central.  Not enough pitching and Wainright will retire. ONeill called out by the manager for not hustling.  Walker and Contreras can't play defense.  Arenado has been disappointing and has a "big" contract relatively for that franchise.  Goldschmidt still solid but getting older and older. 

Loser of 6 of last 7 playoff series. 

Now implicitly connected to the Bud Light LGBTQIA marketing debacle. 

2022	NL Wild Card Series	Philadelphia Phillies	Lost, 2-0
2021	NL Wild Card Game	Los Angeles Dodgers	Lost, 1-0 (3-1 score)
2020	NL Wild Card Series	San Diego Padres	Lost, 2-1
2019	NL Championship Series	Washington Nationals	Lost, 4-0
	NL Division Series	Atlanta Braves	Won, 3-2
2015	NL Division Series	Chicago Cubs	Lost, 3-1
2014	NL Championship Series	San Francisco Giants	Lost, 4-1

 

 

Edited June 3, 20232 yr by caulfield12

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

They're in an even worse position than the Padres according to FG. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/underperforming-mlb-teams-2023

Just blew a big lead to the Pirates and 8 games under .500, last place in the Central.  Not enough pitching and Wainright will retire. ONeill called out by the manager for not hustling.  Walker and Contreras can't play defense.  Arenado has been disappointing and has a "big" contract relatively for that franchise.  Goldschmidt still solid but getting older and older. 

Loser of 6 of last 7 playoff series. 

Now implicitly connected to the Bud Light LGBTQIA marketing debacle. 

2022	NL Wild Card Series	Philadelphia Phillies	Lost, 2-0
2021	NL Wild Card Game	Los Angeles Dodgers	Lost, 1-0 (3-1 score)
2020	NL Wild Card Series	San Diego Padres	Lost, 2-1
2019	NL Championship Series	Washington Nationals	Lost, 4-0
	NL Division Series	Atlanta Braves	Won, 3-2
2015	NL Division Series	Chicago Cubs	Lost, 3-1
2014	NL Championship Series	San Francisco Giants	Lost, 4-1

 

 

As a Sox fan I'd still LOVE to have that playoff record. Six appearances in the last nine years? Count me in! 

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

They're in an even worse position than the Padres according to FG. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/underperforming-mlb-teams-2023

Just blew a big lead to the Pirates and 8 games under .500, last place in the Central.  Not enough pitching and Wainright will retire. ONeill called out by the manager for not hustling.  Walker and Contreras can't play defense.  Arenado has been disappointing and has a "big" contract relatively for that franchise.  Goldschmidt still solid but getting older and older. 

Loser of 6 of last 7 playoff series. 

Now implicitly connected to the Bud Light LGBTQIA marketing debacle. 

2022	NL Wild Card Series	Philadelphia Phillies	Lost, 2-0
2021	NL Wild Card Game	Los Angeles Dodgers	Lost, 1-0 (3-1 score)
2020	NL Wild Card Series	San Diego Padres	Lost, 2-1
2019	NL Championship Series	Washington Nationals	Lost, 4-0
	NL Division Series	Atlanta Braves	Won, 3-2
2015	NL Division Series	Chicago Cubs	Lost, 3-1
2014	NL Championship Series	San Francisco Giants	Lost, 4-1

 

 

They had four legitimate solid seasons during that stretch (win division with 90 + wins).

• 2014 90-72
• 2015 100-62
• 2019 91-71
• 2022 93-69

The playoffs are nothing but a grift scheme, especially best of one or three garbage wild card rounds. If Hahn was here for forty more years, he won't win four divisions with 90+ win seasons.

Also, there is no connection between Saint Louis Cardinals Baseball and the Bud Light "marketing debacle". The Busch family sold the Cardinals to Bill DeWitt in 1995, and sold their 5% shares in Anheuser Busch to In-Bev, a Belgium Company, before the 2008 White Sox "Blackout Game". It's like saying the Houston Astros are "implicitly connected" to the 2001 Enron scandal. It's another ludicrous statement and connection. 

On 6/1/2023 at 12:54 PM, caulfield12 said:

Not sure that Ohtani doesn't have White Sox on quite limited no trade list. 

Ohtani forgot that the White Sox franchise even existed and thus, forgot to add us to his no trade list 

3 hours ago, shago said:

Ohtani forgot that the White Sox franchise even existed and thus, forgot to add us to his no trade list 

How could he forget?

look at his numbers against us. Pretty sure he’s got us marked on his calendar.