January 23, 20242 yr Hi Sox fans - I haven’t poked my head in here for a few weeks, and said I wouldn’t unless and until there was a solid rumor or an actual deal involving Cease. But I decided to make a brief exception today to mention the ZiPS projection for Cease that came out today. Briefly, the median projection is for 166 innings at a 3.90 ERA, 111 ERA+. There’s also an 80th percentile projection at a 3.32 ERA, and a 20th percentile projection at 4.81 ERA. The gap between the 80th and 20th percentile projections is really wide. For example, here are the 80/20 projections for the Orioles’ four incumbent starters: Bradish 3.16/4.29 Rodriguez 3.40/4.41 Kremer 3.49/4,69 Means 3.78/4.83 The 80/20 “risk band” on those four ranges from 1.01 - 1.20 runs per game, whereas Cease’s is 1.49. So, for whatever reason, ZiPS sees Cease as a guy whose performance could fluctuate a lot more than some other pitchers, at least with respect to ERA. Overall, that portrait of Cease is pretty much consistent with how I see him. But if anything, the 80th percentile scenario is probably not as strong as I would have guessed. I will leave this for you guys to consider and discuss.
January 23, 20242 yr 6 hours ago, SoxAce said: Someone's going to trade For Dylan Cease But I was told we need to just accept whatever is being offered because it's not going to go up before ST. This article is correct. This is not the time to fall prey to other teams disinformation and scare tactics. Do not get weak kneed. Someone WILL pay ...good pitching that is cheap and controlled is very valuable. Westburg, Beavers and McDermott is not adequate. Warren, Lombard and a lottery ticket is awful. Gavin Stone and Diego Cartaya is crap. NO. Edited January 23, 20242 yr by SoCalChiSox
January 23, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said: But I was told we need to just accept whatever is being offered because it's not going to go up before ST. This article is correct. This is not the time to fall prey to other teams disinformation and scare tactics. Do not get weak kneed. Someone WILL pay ...good pitching that is cheap and controlled is very valuable. Westburg, Beavers and McDermott is not adequate. Warren, Lombard and a lottery ticket is awful. Gavin Stone and Diego Cartaya is crap. NO. Yeah, all of those are easy "no's" for me
January 23, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, Frobby said: Hi Sox fans - I haven’t poked my head in here for a few weeks, and said I wouldn’t unless and until there was a solid rumor or an actual deal involving Cease. But I decided to make a brief exception today to mention the ZiPS projection for Cease that came out today. Briefly, the median projection is for 166 innings at a 3.90 ERA, 111 ERA+. There’s also an 80th percentile projection at a 3.32 ERA, and a 20th percentile projection at 4.81 ERA. The gap between the 80th and 20th percentile projections is really wide. For example, here are the 80/20 projections for the Orioles’ four incumbent starters: Bradish 3.16/4.29 Rodriguez 3.40/4.41 Kremer 3.49/4,69 Means 3.78/4.83 The 80/20 “risk band” on those four ranges from 1.01 - 1.20 runs per game, whereas Cease’s is 1.49. So, for whatever reason, ZiPS sees Cease as a guy whose performance could fluctuate a lot more than some other pitchers, at least with respect to ERA. Overall, that portrait of Cease is pretty much consistent with how I see him. But if anything, the 80th percentile scenario is probably not as strong as I would have guessed. I will leave this for you guys to consider and discuss. So you don't believe in fWAR for assessing pitchers? At any rate, the odds of Cease having a lower ERA with veteran catching and improved overall defensive play across the board are not being taken into account...nor the injection of Bannister into the equation. At this point...roll the dice. Someone will go down in spring training. Hopefully it's not Cease Orioles have to also consider their prospects aging out or regressing...and how much higher the cost at the trade trade deadline will be, not to mention opportunity cost of getting left behind in the first three months of the season with few in-house alternatives to inject into the rotation. Edited January 23, 20242 yr by caulfield12
January 23, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, Frobby said: But I decided to make a brief exception today to mention the ZiPS projection for Cease that came out today. Briefly, the median projection is for 166 innings at a 3.90 ERA, 111 ERA+. We've all accepted that cease will degrade into a 33 year old cease for the 2024 season. that's why his value only tops out at a joey ortiz 1:1 trade.
January 24, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, caulfield12 said: So you don't believe in fWAR for assessing pitchers? At any rate, the odds of Cease having a lower ERA with veteran catching and improved overall defensive play across the board are not being taken into account...nor the injection of Bannister into the equation. I’m not a huge fan of fWAR, to be honest, for reasons relating to ludicrous overvaluations they gave to Sidney Ponson and Ubaldo Jimenez back in the days when they were Orioles. And I think with Statcast derived stats like xERA, FIP (on which fWAR is based) is kind of outdated. But I do look at and consider fWAR, I’m just not overly reliant on it. Anyway, ZiPS has its own version of WAR, zWAR. Its median projection for Cease is 3.0 zWAR, with the 80th percentile projection at 4.1 and the 20th percentile at 1.3. I think your point that Cease probably eoukd fare better with the Orioles’ defense and catchers is well-taken. On the other hand, making 4-5 extra starts against AL East opponents instead of AL Central opponents will cut the other way.
January 24, 20242 yr Nah he means if he stays with the Sox, veteran catching better D behind him and Bannister being involved now.
January 24, 20242 yr 51 minutes ago, Frobby said: I’m not a huge fan of fWAR, to be honest, for reasons relating to ludicrous overvaluations they gave to Sidney Ponson and Ubaldo Jimenez back in the days when they were Orioles. And I think with Statcast derived stats like xERA, FIP (on which fWAR is based) is kind of outdated. But I do look at and consider fWAR, I’m just not overly reliant on it. Anyway, ZiPS has its own version of WAR, zWAR. Its median projection for Cease is 3.0 zWAR, with the 80th percentile projection at 4.1 and the 20th percentile at 1.3. I think your point that Cease probably eoukd fare better with the Orioles’ defense and catchers is well-taken. On the other hand, making 4-5 extra starts against AL East opponents instead of AL Central opponents will cut the other way. I've figured out a way that Cease could be pitched to go Tigers, Royals, Cincy, KC, @Minn and Minnesota, lol. Avoiding Atlanta, @CLE, @Philly and TB. That's for the first month. Now I highly doubt Dylan would even accept being used this way...he would think of it as being "hidden" away from the very best teams and it would be too obvious. I think he will actually WANT to pitch against Atlanta (he's from that area), @Philly and TB at home because he loves competition...
January 24, 20242 yr Orioles going to have to roll the dice https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/brandon-woodruff-baltimore-orioles-free-agency-opportunity-matt9 Old article but certainly still relevant... "They found that 68 per cent of the players were able to get back into action (pitching competitively) approximately 12 months after surgery. Some players were able to return to pitching within nine months after the surgery. Others were not ready for a year and a half (18 months). Very few actually made it back to sports participation the same year they had the surgery. This was especially true for those who had rotator cuff or labral surgery." eorthopod.com/news/rate-of-return-to-el Edited January 24, 20242 yr by caulfield12
January 24, 20242 yr 12 hours ago, Frobby said: I’m not a huge fan of fWAR, to be honest, for reasons relating to ludicrous overvaluations they gave to Sidney Ponson and Ubaldo Jimenez back in the days when they were Orioles. And I think with Statcast derived stats like xERA, FIP (on which fWAR is based) is kind of outdated. But I do look at and consider fWAR, I’m just not overly reliant on it. Anyway, ZiPS has its own version of WAR, zWAR. Its median projection for Cease is 3.0 zWAR, with the 80th percentile projection at 4.1 and the 20th percentile at 1.3. I think your point that Cease probably eoukd fare better with the Orioles’ defense and catchers is well-taken. On the other hand, making 4-5 extra starts against AL East opponents instead of AL Central opponents will cut the other way. Balanced. Schedule.
January 25, 20242 yr https://nypost.com/2024/01/24/sports/domingo-german-has-offers-for-mlb-return-after-alcohol-abuse-treatment/ Newest solution for Orioles/Blue Jays and four other teams...former Yankee Domingo German coming off alcohol rehab stint
January 25, 20242 yr 14 hours ago, Timmy U said: Balanced. Schedule. Are you trying to claim you don’t play against your own division more than the other AL teams?
January 25, 20242 yr New WS Talk podcast with Jesse Rogers about Cease. Sounds like it’s Orioles or bust, but likely no trade before the season starts. He implied that the Sox are asking for Mayo.
January 25, 20242 yr 14 minutes ago, fathom said: New WS Talk podcast with Jesse Rogers about Cease. Sounds like it’s Orioles or bust, but likely no trade before the season starts. He implied that the Sox are asking for Mayo. I would ask for Mayo, too. Mayo is their #4 prospect, Gonzalez is our #4 prospect. Big difference.
January 25, 20242 yr 24 minutes ago, Baron said: Lol definitely acting like a serious playoff team. Elias just has to show opponents the O’s prospect rankings and voilá, instant forfeit. Easiest waltz to the World Series in the history of organized baseball.
January 25, 20242 yr 2 hours ago, fathom said: New WS Talk podcast with Jesse Rogers about Cease. Sounds like it’s Orioles or bust, but likely no trade before the season starts. He implied that the Sox are asking for Mayo. I'm pretty sure the only person who ever talked to Jesse no longer works for the White Sox.
January 25, 20242 yr Can you really count out the Yankees? I don't buy that everyone is out except Baltimore.
January 25, 20242 yr 2 hours ago, fathom said: New WS Talk podcast with Jesse Rogers about Cease. Sounds like it’s Orioles or bust, but likely no trade before the season starts. He implied that the Sox are asking for Mayo. I'm not a fan of Mayo being the ask for this team.
January 25, 20242 yr 11 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: I'm not a fan of Mayo being the ask for this team. Because you want Montgomery at third? Mayo can also play 1B and corner outfield and has a 70 arm…supposedly. Basallo is off the table for sure. Always comes back to some combo of Kjerstad Cowser Westburg…then prospects that are two or more years out.
January 25, 20242 yr 14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Because you want Montgomery at third? Mayo can also play 1B and corner outfield and has a 70 arm…supposedly. Basallo is off the table for sure. Always comes back to some combo of Kjerstad Cowser Westburg…then prospects that are two or more years out. What's the point of a 70 arm if you are at 1B? I'm glad he has alot of power but he's still RH which is a problem. Kjerstad and Westburg and one of the pitchers. That's about 50m-55m in SV and that's around where Cease should be taking into account the SP premium.
January 25, 20242 yr 25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Because you want Montgomery at third? Mayo can also play 1B and corner outfield and has a 70 arm…supposedly. Basallo is off the table for sure. Always comes back to some combo of Kjerstad Cowser Westburg…then prospects that are two or more years out. Because they won’t trade him
January 25, 20242 yr If Mayo is the ask, fine, if a trade with the O’s goes down as long as one of Mayo/Kjerstad + Westburg, I’m golden. Otherwise regardless of what a certain few have said about the negatives of keeping Cease, Chris Getz feels otherwise so we have no choice but to be cool with letting Dylan cook with Maldonado and Bannister. More teams will be ready to jump come the deadline, Mike Elias doesn’t have the cajones to do it right now Edited January 25, 20242 yr by Rey21
January 25, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: I'm not a fan of Mayo being the ask for this team. Same. I want to get away from what we've always done.
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