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Can the Sox field a competitive team in 2025? Or is 2026 or beyond a better target?


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5 hours ago, Chimpton said:

I know it is a radical solution but could the AL and NL have 2 divisions each? With only the top division in each being eligable for the playoffs. Then you could have promotion and relegation between the divisions, and even a relegation playoff. I know relegation and promotion are not a popular concept in American sports, but as a Brit it keeps things interesting in football (soccer), especially as teams want to avoid relegation. 

I’d be all for relegation - I’m so over this “tank for 3 years” thing.

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16 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Are you talking about 2023 when you say playoff aspirations?  I mean have billionaire aspirations, but no actual ability to do it.

I mean the 2023 team was expected to contend, most would agree I imagine. That was quickly ended before the first month though.

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There are too many variables to count. If Jerry is priortizing the stadium right now, he will likely keep payroll low these next 3-4 seasons. Lets face it, the state will likely not grant his wish of maximum public funding. If anything- Jerry will likely have to fit the bill for a minimum of 1/3rd or 1/4th of the stadium development project.  (Still a massive bargain for him!) This will definitley force Getz to get creative with his roster construction. The priority for Getz should be to deal guys like Cease, Moncada and Eloy at the deadline this season to restock the slightly improving farm system. If he can acquire quality returns at the deadline, this ship can start to turn in the right direction by 2025 without having to spend the mega bucks that Jerry will never do. 

One thing Chris can do next offseason is hire a well established MLB manager who has a track record of maximizing the potential of young talent. Pedro Grifol doesn't really seem to know much about baseball from the looks of things. 

Edited by GreatScott82
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30 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

They sure didn't think that around these parts.

Either way, a 61 win season wasn't in the realm of possibilities going into last season. Most thought Tony was the problem as well as playing in a terrible division.

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CAN? Sure, if by compete you mean push for the division and possibly make the playoffs.

 

But is ownership willing to do what’s necessary to get there? No I don’t think so. Going to have to build it organically and 2026 is probably best case scenario…and even that is pushing it 

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46 minutes ago, T R U said:

Either way, a 61 win season wasn't in the realm of possibilities going into last season. Most thought Tony was the problem as well as playing in a terrible division.

Most, not all. Some of us did say that the roster looked just plain bad coming into the season. Throw in guys being traded away, and dropping into the 60s was entirely within the realm of possibilities. It was an old, bad team.

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10 hours ago, tray said:

OK, but that not the best analogy. Different dynamic at play, i.e., the amount of starting players and the degree to which superstar talent impacts teams in the NBA.

Anyway, something should be done to foster some degree of parity in mlb and frankly I don't know what the answer is.

I do agree that the "Profit-taking" teams in MLB is a problem - the teams that have lower payrolls than they receive during revenue sharing. This does hurt the whole league as it leaves those markets under-served, with little chance at a multi-year run of competitive baseball.

I think that what the Dodgers did this year - backloading a $550 million contract and relying on revenue growth to deal with it - is a potential new threat to competition, as most markets won't be able to do that. I don't know whether that will make a huge difference until we see the results. 

I think that baseball has an impressive degree of parity despite these couple of problems. The teams that make the playoffs nearly every year - one of them has a lot of resources (The Dodgers) but they also have a front office that is as good as any in the league and regularly develops their own talent. Other franchises that regularly make the playoffs get there because they have skilled employees. The Rays, the Astros, the Braves, the Guardians - they have front offices that are doing their job. With a few financial exceptions (Pittsburgh, Florida), the teams that are always at the bottom of their division are there because their front offices are poor. The Rockies, the White Sox, the Mariners, the Royals - they can't compete because they can't identify or develop talent, so they make the playoffs once every decade or so. 

I think it's especially impressive in baseball that teams like the Yankees and the 2023 Mets cannot buy their way to the playoffs. That tells me the financial difference between teams still is less importance than the skill of the front office. Teams like the Rangers make the playoffs by spending money, but who was key to the Rangers last year - Adolis Garcia in the playoffs, for example, was a guy they picked up and developed. The Diamondbacks made the playoffs last year. The Rays overcame a key player seemingly having his career ended early in their biggest contract. Aside from the teams where the owner is a parasite just taking in money, parity in MLB is mostly fine, hire good people, have them do a good job, and your team will have a competitive run soon enough.

Finally, I see no problem with the cycle of competing and tanking. That is absolutely normal in most sports. Normal behavior in sports should involve a team developing a lot of players, peaking for a couple of years, trying to win a title, then backing off to rebuild, get younger, and restructure their financial situation. The Golden State Warriors drafted and developed an incredible team, but it seems like their guys have gotten old and there's only so far they can push them. The Buffalo Bills couldn't get past Mahomes in their best chances, now they're losing a lot of their players to free agency. The teams that manage to shortcut these cycles tend to be ones that have elite front offices regularly developing players - the Chiefs and 49ers in the NFL, the Rays and Dodgers in MLB.

The NBA, because of the dominance of a few stars and the way their max contracts work, has in many ways been the least competitive, lowest parity league, but even with them we're now seeing teams go through cycles. The Bucks weren't that great, but built a great team and won a title. The Heat are seemingly an elite coaching and front office combination. The Spurs fall apart, get a #1 draft pick, then build championship teams around them. The Thunder sold off Durant, Harden, and Westbrook, piled up tons of draft picks, now those draft picks are growing up and they're back to a #2 seed. This is normal, it's how leagues should work. 

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You listen to Reinsdorf say the Sox can't compete in the current location but he's been the owner that bought the team in that location and built a new stadium in that location.

The Dominican Republic has been producing good players since before Reinsdorf became the owner yet have the Sox ever developed a very good DR player ? They had a chance with Tatis, Jr and Hahn got fleeced before the kid could even play stateside.

Tampa Bay has shown Jerry that investing in infrastructure and developing youth can keep a team competitive without a large player payroll in a lousy location. Does JR ever try to do what TB does ? Nope ,not ever, not even a little. He seems diametrically opposed to it in reality.

JR or his heirs would not run the team any differently in a new stadium. Grifol , Getz who cares ? Just new flunkies using the same M.O. that JR lays down. They all will slowly sink into Jerry's quicksand operation  of the franchise.

Even if a new stadium gets built on the 78, JR will have to make concessions and it's highly doubtful some grand dream of developing the surrounding area into a White Sox Wonderland capable of a brand new era of White Sox baseball will ever bear fruit.

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47 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

CAN? Sure, if by compete you mean push for the division and possibly make the playoffs.

 

But is ownership willing to do what’s necessary to get there? No I don’t think so. Going to have to build it organically and 2026 is probably best case scenario…and even that is pushing it 

You already said you don't think JR is going to do what's necessary to push for the playoffs.

Then you said " build it organically". I'm not sure what that means in your mind but when has that ever happened under JR ?

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2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You already said you don't think JR is going to do what's necessary to push for the playoffs.

Then you said " build it organically". I'm not sure what that means in your mind but when has that ever happened under JR ?

Organically as in cross our fingers and hope enough prospects develop because our cheap owner isn’t going to  sign the type of free agents necessary to take the team over the top. 

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On 3/4/2024 at 12:30 PM, Slayer12 said:

Not trying to be the negative guy, but I have zero confidence in this front office and coaching staff. In my eyes to even have a playoff caliber season by 2027, we are going to have to see major changes made, and most importantly, they have to make the right changes. Now look back at how many "right changes" this organization has made in the last 5 to 10 years. 

Makes it kind of hard to be positive, but hope they prove me wrong

 

Zero confidence in the front office and coaches ? Most of them are just starting their tenure with the Sox. Yes Getz didn't exactly impress anyone in his previous job except JR.

But seriously ,when you examine the organization making " right changes" in the last 5 to 10 years why stop there ? Who's in charge of the White Sox ? Who makes the decisions and controls the purse strings that enable front offices and coaches to do better jobs by building an infrastructure that enhances player development ?

That would be the owner.

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7 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Organically as in cross our fingers and hope enough prospects develop because our cheap owner isn’t going to  sign the type of free agents necessary to take the team over the top. 

Ha cross our fingers and hope ! I'm not opposed to organic growth but Jerry does little to nothing to bring in or develop prospects.

Crossing fingers and hoping is all we have.

And this is spring when I pretend that things will go well up til the trade deadline and then they trade off  8 guys and basically start all over again in 2025 . That's a successful 2024 and it leads to basically they same thing in 2025 where you put enough decent prospects into a system that sucks at developing prospects and hope they learned enough in their previously organizations and have enough talent to overcome everything the White Sox don't do to make them better.

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1 hour ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Organically as in cross our fingers and hope enough prospects develop because our cheap owner isn’t going to  sign the type of free agents necessary to take the team over the top. 

This pretty much describes the failed rebuild strategy started by Hahn and company once Sale was traded away. 

It didn't work last time. It won't work this time. 

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29 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

This pretty much describes the failed rebuild strategy started by Hahn and company once Sale was traded away. 

It didn't work last time. It won't work this time. 

You are correct in that rebuilding and hopi my they can make it work is the strategy both times.

You are also correct that it is being done in a Reinsdorf organization so full skepticism is warranted.

However, let us also consider that Rick Hahn was a uniquely terrible GM in just about every way. While Getz can be as bad as Hahn, it will take effort to be that bad.

Furthermore, also consider that the only reason the White Sox have any playoff appearances since 2008 is that rebuilding was a correct enough strategy that it overcame how awful Hahn was and got them a playoff spot. Had they continued trying to patch holes like they did in 2012-2016, do you see any path to a playoff appearance? 

If you aren’t going to at least hope Getz can figure some things out, then what’s the point? They aren’t going to turn themselves into an 80 win team through trades, they aren’t going to sign free agents to make them an 80 win team (ask the Mets how that goes), at the very least Getz so far has done the right things in general with the overall Strategy, now it must play out.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, GreatScott82 said:

There are too many variables to count. If Jerry is priortizing the stadium right now, he will likely keep payroll low these next 3-4 seasons. Lets face it, the state will likely not grant his wish of maximum public funding. If anything- Jerry will likely have to fit the bill for a minimum of 1/3rd or 1/4th of the stadium development project.  (Still a massive bargain for him!) This will definitley force Getz to get creative with his roster construction. The priority for Getz should be to deal guys like Cease, Moncada and Eloy at the deadline this season to restock the slightly improving farm system. If he can acquire quality returns at the deadline, this ship can start to turn in the right direction by 2025 without having to spend the mega bucks that Jerry will never do. 

One thing Chris can do next offseason is hire a well established MLB manager who has a track record of maximizing the potential of young talent. Pedro Grifol doesn't really seem to know much about baseball from the looks of things. 

This would be big, even if they aren't competing in a few years since you want to have a thoughtful manager when several of the top prospects reach the majors. Replace him mid to end of season unless he makes a drastic turnaround, which I peg as a slim possibility at best.

They can have a decent core with payroll flexibility in 2025, which is why I think it's at least possible they can compete for the Division, but not much beyond it without unlikely significant FA signings.

Dylan Cease would add around $10M-11M or so if he is retained, Nicky Lopez around $5M, both in their final arbitration seasons.

Potential 2025 Roster before FAs, Draft and Trade Acquisitions $78M including 2025 buyouts:

  • $1.5M Catchers K. Lee & E. Quero
  • $7.5M Infield A. Vaughn, L. Sosa, B. Ramos, C. Montgomery, J. Rodriguez
  • $34.3M Outfield A. Benintendi, L. Robert Jr., O. Colas, D. Fletcher, Z. DeLoach 
  • $16.7M Starting Pitchers E. Fedde, M. Kopech, G. Crochet, N. Nastrini, J. Eder, D. Martin
  • $6.5M Relief Pitchers P. Berroa, J. Cousin, S. Drohan, M. Foster, D. Garcia, B. Horn, J. Leasure, T. Toussaint
  • $11.5M Buyouts J. Brebbia, L. Hendricks (+ $1.5M for 8 more years on "July 1, aka "Liam Hendricks Day"), E. Jimenez (+$3.0M in 2026), Y. Moncada. M. Stassi
Edited by South Side Hit Men
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3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Most, not all. Some of us did say that the roster looked just plain bad coming into the season. Throw in guys being traded away, and dropping into the 60s was entirely within the realm of possibilities. It was an old, bad team.

Majority of people were pretty disappointed with how 2022 went, but I would say I don't believe anyone who tries to say with a straight face they saw this team winning 61 games in 2023.

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21 minutes ago, T R U said:

Majority of people were pretty disappointed with how 2022 went, but I would say I don't believe anyone who tries to say with a straight face they saw this team winning 61 games in 2023.

If I ever believed anyone said it, it was him.

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5 hours ago, LittleHurtCG said:

This pretty much describes the failed rebuild strategy started by Hahn and company once Sale was traded away. 

It didn't work last time. It won't work this time. 

I don’t disagree with you. But unfortunately we all know hoping for high $ free agents to turn the team around is beyond pointless. 

Edited by TheFutureIsNear
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On 3/6/2024 at 12:58 AM, WhiteSox2023 said:

Sarcasm?  Or do you think the Sox have a chance at signing Juan Soto, a Boras client, when he hits free agency in 2025 at the age of 27?  You have a better chance of winning the lottery.

correct, it was a joke, it's never going to happen. 

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13 minutes ago, nrockway said:

correct, it was a joke, it's never going to happen. 

Maybe one day it will happen.  But  am just assuming that our Dark Sith Lord will outlast Soto hitting free agency.

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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Posted (edited)

Obviously projections will fluctuate based on performance and injuries over the next two years, but this is what we have for public projections today. Significant work, additional acquisitions and several breakouts to show significant improvement between the 2026 Chicago White Sox and 2024 Chicago White Sox.

Updated 2026 projected team controlled fWAR

(2026 MLB Age) Major League Minimum Contracts unless otherwise noted in green.

Top 30 White Sox Prospect Rank on 3/14

Position Players:

Pitchers:

 

 

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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