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Under what scenario would you consider offering Crochet and/or Kopech extensions?


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15 hours ago, soulfly said:

Don't you put that evil on us, Ricky Bobby.  Do you not remember the last time people mentioned the Orioles and all the sewer lurkers that came along with it?

That was a fun time not evil.

It was our "Cease is worth a fortune"  guys against the Orioles  " no, he's not worth a fortune, but he is worth a decent return" guys.

And they basically showed us we were delusional .

If the measure of if the O's fan were right is winning a championship or just 4 ,5, 6 years of playoffs baseball due to keeping their most highly regarded prospects, they still have a way to go.

It would be fun eventually to look back 5 years from now at the thread and see how all the O's prospects that were discussed have panned out.

That was a great time in Soxtalk history.

 

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1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That was a fun time not evil.

It was our "Cease is worth a fortune"  guys against the Orioles  " no, he's not worth a fortune, but he is worth a decent return" guys.

And they basically showed us we were delusional .

If the measure of if the O's fan were right is winning a championship or just 4 ,5, 6 years of playoffs baseball due to keeping their most highly regarded prospects, they still have a way to go.

It would be fun eventually to look back 5 years from now at the thread and see how all the O's prospects that were discussed have panned out.

That was a great time in Soxtalk history.

 

I don't think so, their time to compete is right now, not a while from now, and White Sox fans are probably still correct that they should've given up their utility players/AAA fodder (who might be good later) in exchange for Cease/Kopech. Their rotation is performing for now, but I don't think O's fans have a ton of faith in Means or Kremer. Certainly no faith in Kimbrel or the rest of their bullpen. Orioles would be the heavy favorite in the American League if they added Cease and Kopech as well as Burnes. 

I suspect the Orioles aren't going to win a World Series because they overvalued their prospects and didn't make the appropriate moves to compete when their window was open (sound familiar?). What happens if, two years from now, Henderson or Rutschman get injured and miss a season and never return to form? Maybe they should've been trying to win a World Series in 2024 when their stars were healthy and performing well. 

Inevitably they will trade some of those guys and it will almost certainly be selling short. We got good value for Cease, but I think we could have gotten better value from the Orioles and that both teams would have actually been better off making a trade. I put that on O's management as opposed to ours though. 

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4 minutes ago, nrockway said:

I don't think so, their time to compete is right now, not a while from now, and White Sox fans are probably still correct that they should've given up their utility players/AAA fodder (who might be good later) in exchange for Cease/Kopech. Their rotation is performing for now, but I don't think O's fans have a ton of faith in Means or Kremer. Certainly no faith in Kimbrel or the rest of their bullpen. Orioles would be the heavy favorite in the American League if they added Cease and Kopech as well as Burnes. 

I suspect the Orioles aren't going to win a World Series because they overvalued their prospects and didn't make the appropriate moves to compete when their window was open (sound familiar?). What happens if, two years from now, Henderson or Rutschman get injured and miss a season and never return to form? Maybe they should've been trying to win a World Series in 2024 when their stars were healthy and performing well. 

Inevitably they will trade some of those guys and it will almost certainly be selling short. We got good value for Cease, but I think we could have gotten better value from the Orioles and that both teams would have actually been better off making a trade. I put that on O's management as opposed to ours though. 

If you took what you bolded in the context I used it I said they have a way to go because they haven't won a championship or had 4-6 years of playoffs baseball yet. And that would be the ultimate way of determining if they made the right call on operating the way they have.

As you mentioned I also think they have COULD have a rough road ahead but they hoarded prospects because ,like the Sox, they weren't going to spend a lot of money to win a championship, so you need to keep your minor league depth. You can't sell out your depth to go all in . Your best shot to win a World Series is by making the playoffs year after year. But that doesn't guarantee a championship. The Dodgers and Yankees have both had long droughts between championships despite continually being in the playoffs. Tamp Bay never won a World Series but they give their fans playoff teams often.

It's been pretty obvious since last year's record they were ready to compete for a championship now but they had holes in their OF that needed to be filled in the next few years. So they didn't want to give up near ready top OF prospects.

I also don't remember Sox fans asking for the Orioles AAA fodder. We pretty much bristled at mentions of guys like Westburg and Beavers as 3rd piece types.We wanted Kjerstad or Cowser mostly and not trading them was the correct call.

I suppose it's how you measure success that ultimately determines how you'll view them hoarding prospects. Winning a championship is the top goal and if all else is failure then youre underestimating the fan entertainment and yearly revenue and franchise building value of sustained playoff appearanes.

 

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1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If you took what you bolded in the context I used it I said they have a way to go because they haven't won a championship or had 4-6 years of playoffs baseball yet. And that would be the ultimate way of determining if they made the right call on operating the way they have.

As you mentioned I also think they have COULD have a rough road ahead but they hoarded prospects because ,like the Sox, they weren't going to spend a lot of money to win a championship, so you need to keep your minor league depth. You can't sell out your depth to go all in . Your best shot to win a World Series is by making the playoffs year after year. But that doesn't guarantee a championship. The Dodgers and Yankees have both had long droughts between championships despite continually being in the playoffs. Tamp Bay never won a World Series but they give their fans playoff teams often.

It's been pretty obvious since last year's record they were ready to compete for a championship now but they had holes in their OF that needed to be filled in the next few years. So they didn't want to give up near ready top OF prospects.

I also don't remember Sox fans asking for the Orioles AAA fodder. We pretty much bristled at mentions of guys like Westburg and Beavers as 3rd piece types.We wanted Kjerstad or Cowser mostly and not trading them was the correct call.

I suppose it's how you measure success that ultimately determines how you'll view them hoarding prospects. Winning a championship is the top goal and if all else is failure then youre underestimating the fan entertainment and yearly revenue and franchise building value of sustained playoff appearanes.

 

It's a reasonable point, does holding onto those excess prospects help more in the long run in making the playoffs consistently? Maybe, the players are certainly under contract longer, but I'm skeptical. At least two seasons of Cease and Kopech isn't nothing and those prospects haven't actually proven yet to be major league talents that will help a team win a World Series. They might help more in the long run, but they might not, and those two pitchers fill an actual need on a team with championship aspirations for two years. One in the hand or two in the bush? I think the White Sox are in the bush and the Orioles are not. Two years of being the favorite or six years of being in it til the end? The latter sounds like a Reinsdorfian approach, and as you say, that method might sell more tickets and merchandise. 

What about in the short term, is it certain that Baltimore will be better than NYY and win the division? Will Craig Kimbrel set a Major League record in blown saves and will the starters come down to Earth? It would be a shame to waste their offensive firepower because they also wanted to have the best AAA team. 

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35 minutes ago, nrockway said:

It's a reasonable point, does holding onto those excess prospects help more in the long run in making the playoffs consistently? Maybe, the players are certainly under contract longer, but I'm skeptical. At least two seasons of Cease and Kopech isn't nothing and those prospects haven't actually proven yet to be major league talents that will help a team win a World Series. They might help more in the long run, but they might not, and those two pitchers fill an actual need on a team with championship aspirations for two years. One in the hand or two in the bush? I think the White Sox are in the bush and the Orioles are not. Two years of being the favorite or six years of being in it til the end? The latter sounds like a Reinsdorfian approach, and as you say, that method might sell more tickets and merchandise. 

What about in the short term, is it certain that Baltimore will be better than NYY and win the division? Will Craig Kimbrel set a Major League record in blown saves and will the starters come down to Earth? It would be a shame to waste their offensive firepower because they also wanted to have the best AAA team. 

Well they are off to the best start in franchise history as of today. They could also trade Santander or other prospects at the deadline. Their GM seems to have good grasp on the situation . They also still have the #1 prospect in baseball and Basallo and others. Unlike the Sox their cupboard isn't bare once they got really good. I don't think the Sox ever were as good in their window as the Os are now . The Os are in a much better division.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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16 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Bold prediction:  Crochet doesn’t get dealt at the deadline due to lack of interest due to his innings usage.  The offseason is another story.

Option B: the Sox wind down his inning usage as midseason approaches and put him into the bullpen. He continues his success in the bullpen, and he nets a handsome return from a playoff team who is looking for a shut-down lefty reliever this year + a solid #2 starter next year.

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43 minutes ago, JoeC said:

Option B: the Sox wind down his inning usage as midseason approaches and put him into the bullpen. He continues his success in the bullpen, and he nets a handsome return from a playoff team who is looking for a shut-down lefty reliever this year + a solid #2 starter next year.

Tough balancing act not to end up like Rodon 2021 down the stetch...pitching primarily on fumes.

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16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Tough balancing act not to end up like Rodon 2021 down the stetch...pitching primarily on fumes.

Yep.

thus a move to the bullpen could be vital, with a spot start thrown in there maybe. Not sure how arms behave, though

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Yeah I think you have to think of signing Crochet to a team friendly deal. An extension that gives him security while also having him reach FA at 30 or 31 makes sense. 

Also Hahn/KW are idiots not starting him. 

But who knows how much he would have pitched due to the injuries. 

Edited by baseball_gal_aly
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1 minute ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Yeah I think you have to think of signing Crochet to a team friendly deal. An extension that gives him security while also having him reach FA at 30 or 31 makes sense. 

Also Hahn/KW are idiots not starting him. 

But who knows how much he would have pitched due to the injuries. 

People keep saying to extend him, but with his low salary in year 4 because of injuries and being two years away from free agency, I have yet to see any details on a potential extension that makes sense for both sides. 

With his salary in 2024 at $800,000, that suppresses his salary structure the next two years in the arbitration process to the point where the Sox have a lot of pricing power in those years.  Then once he gets past that, his salary structure options explode into free agency, where he could well be a $20 to $25 million a year pitcher on the open market, maybe more if he can actually stay injury free during a season for the first time in his life since his freshman year of college.  So how do you structure a deal where he is probably looking a salary structure of say $3 million next year, and maybe $8 to $10 million in arbitration in 26, yet somewhere between double and triple that number in 2027 and beyond?  With the Sox knowing they own Crochet for somewhere in the area of $10ish million for the next couple of years, and Crochet knowing teams might throw nine figures at him in 2 years, how do you arrive at something which makes sense to both camps which gives Garrett more money early, but sacrifices a really big payday potentially after that?

-What sort of extension convinces Crochet to not hold out and bet on himself in two short years, yet tempts the Sox enough to give away payroll flexibility in the middle of them cutting salary hardcore?

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

People keep saying to extend him, but with his low salary in year 4 because of injuries and being two years away from free agency, I have yet to see any details on a potential extension that makes sense for both sides. 

With his salary in 2024 at $800,000, that suppresses his salary structure the next two years in the arbitration process to the point where the Sox have a lot of pricing power in those years.  Then once he gets past that, his salary structure options explode into free agency, where he could well be a $20 to $25 million a year pitcher on the open market, maybe more if he can actually stay injury free during a season for the first time in his life since his freshman year of college.  So how do you structure a deal where he is probably looking a salary structure of say $3 million next year, and maybe $8 to $10 million in arbitration in 26, yet somewhere between double and triple that number in 2027 and beyond?  With the Sox knowing they own Crochet for somewhere in the area of $10ish million for the next couple of years, and Crochet knowing teams might throw nine figures at him in 2 years, how do you arrive at something which makes sense to both camps which gives Garrett more money early, but sacrifices a really big payday potentially after that?

-What sort of extension convinces Crochet to not hold out and bet on himself in two short years, yet tempts the Sox enough to give away payroll flexibility in the middle of them cutting salary hardcore?

Yeah this is the dillemma. 

I think a lot of Sox fans are talking about a re-sign because they know Crochet has little value on the trade market due to lack of track record. 

They're not going to be able to trade him until he's in his walk year and that's if everything goes perfectly and his injuries are behind him. 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

People keep saying to extend him, but with his low salary in year 4 because of injuries and being two years away from free agency, I have yet to see any details on a potential extension that makes sense for both sides. 

With his salary in 2024 at $800,000, that suppresses his salary structure the next two years in the arbitration process to the point where the Sox have a lot of pricing power in those years.  Then once he gets past that, his salary structure options explode into free agency, where he could well be a $20 to $25 million a year pitcher on the open market, maybe more if he can actually stay injury free during a season for the first time in his life since his freshman year of college.  So how do you structure a deal where he is probably looking a salary structure of say $3 million next year, and maybe $8 to $10 million in arbitration in 26, yet somewhere between double and triple that number in 2027 and beyond?  With the Sox knowing they own Crochet for somewhere in the area of $10ish million for the next couple of years, and Crochet knowing teams might throw nine figures at him in 2 years, how do you arrive at something which makes sense to both camps which gives Garrett more money early, but sacrifices a really big payday potentially after that?

-What sort of extension convinces Crochet to not hold out and bet on himself in two short years, yet tempts the Sox enough to give away payroll flexibility in the middle of them cutting salary hardcore?

I've thought something on the order of 5/10/15/18 million option. This essentially buys out 1-2 years of FA, and he hits actual free agency as a 29-year-old. 

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1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

I've thought something on the order of 5/10/15/18 million option. This essentially buys out 1-2 years of FA, and he hits actual free agency as a 29-year-old. 

The Sox may well look at that, but I can't imagine with the breakout year he has had so far that Crochet would be willing to give up THAT much money in his free agent years, because he wouldn't be getting much more than what his arb years would be, in exchange for potentially giving up a huge payday in those last two years.  Unless the option year was his own option, or a duel to exercise option, I don't see him being there.  

Honestly, I think the only way he signs something like that is if he is already hurting and worried about another surgery.

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox may well look at that, but I can't imagine with the breakout year he has had so far that Crochet would be willing to give up THAT much money in his free agent years, because he wouldn't be getting much more than what his arb years would be, in exchange for potentially giving up a huge payday in those last two years.  Unless the option year was his own option, or a duel to exercise option, I don't see him being there.  

Honestly, I think the only way he signs something like that is if he is already hurting and worried about another surgery.

I hope he stays healthy and the Sox can get something like what they got for Cease in the 2025-26 offseason. 

You're right, there's probably no way he's signing anything only 2 years from FA.  

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5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox may well look at that, but I can't imagine with the breakout year he has had so far that Crochet would be willing to give up THAT much money in his free agent years, because he wouldn't be getting much more than what his arb years would be, in exchange for potentially giving up a huge payday in those last two years.  Unless the option year was his own option, or a duel to exercise option, I don't see him being there.  

Honestly, I think the only way he signs something like that is if he is already hurting and worried about another surgery.

I saw it as him getting $3-4 million more up front, guaranteeing it, and giving up $7-17 million on the 2 FA years. 

The White Sox did him a solid by running him out there as a starter. I feel there could be a bit of a hometown discount for that, alone. 

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1 minute ago, WestEddy said:

I saw it as him getting $3-4 million more up front, guaranteeing it, and giving up $7-17 million on the 2 FA years. 

The White Sox did him a solid by running him out there as a starter. I feel there could be a bit of a hometown discount for that, alone. 

The Sox also kicked him in the nuts by destroying his first earning years by putting him the pen.  If he had started, he could have another 10ish million in career earnings, maybe a lot more, by the time he hit free agency.  Take an oft injured Carlos Rodon as an example...

Rodon's 3rd year was $2.3 million.  His 4th was $4.2 million  His 5th  year was $4.5 million even after TJS.  Crochet was something like 800k and 800k for his 3rd and 4th years.

Non- or minimally injured is is probably 3 million in his 3rd year, 8-10 in his 4th, 15ish in his 5th and 20ish million his last year before FA. 

If he believes that the Sox putting him in the pen contributed to his injuries, I don't think a deal where he takes a 10 million haircut would leave him with much goodwill for a "hometown discount", especially when he looks at the absolute dogwater of a roster we have offensively and defensively as a pitcher.

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