1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I might've went with too low a percentage for July 3rd if Harold says Nightingale said Memorial Day , which is May 26th, which seems really early to me. I've gone against Nightingale's insider info/guesses before on Robert or Crochet stuff so beating the insider is nothing new. Some time in June or July 3rd seems more realistic.   Opposing GMs are not going to make it that easy on Getz is my thinking on a lower percent for earlier trade dates. They know Roberts injury history. They know just a few weeks ago Robert was taking walks,stealing and fielding but hitting poorly. He usually starts slow and isn't much of a cold weather hitter and when you're talking about prime time night games which are usually cold in October you may not get the same guy as you get in warmer weather. So at least it's good that Robert has started to heat up even if the weather hasn't yet.

Here on Soxtalk patience was starting to crumble and the proverbial bag of balls was starting to be invoked.

So if it's Memorial Day, Father's Day or the 4th of July, Robert's impending Independence Day has to be preceded by continuing to create more 🎇🎆 fireworks .   GMs may decide to take his awakening from his 5 month, 400 AB slumber since returning from injury last June and his new found batting eye with a grain of salt until its got some hair on its chest. They are going to play hardball with Mr. Getz. You saw how it was with Crochet. Boston wouldn't part with their 1st 3 top position player prospects .

 

Right now it's just a #75-100 outfield prospect...

Maybe another month or two it's Zhyir Hope or Josue de Paula.

10 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

If JR would offer him like a 4 year 85 million extension I'd be more than open to keeping him. But you know we'll just lose him for nothing in two years anyways. That's sadly is where we are at.

Scott Boras client. He’ll go to free agency. 

51 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Scott Boras client. He’ll go to free agency. 

Could Ishbia be a factor in working with Boras going forward?

 

18 minutes ago, Falstaff said:

Could Ishbia be a factor in working with Boras going forward?

 

Things couldn't be much worse...so there's that.

I still think the Phillies will get involved if Robert continues to hit, their need for a CF with power is almost too obvious. 
Don’t know if Miller or Crawford will be on the table at this point, and the Phillies don’t have a ton of other hitting prospects, but I’m sure something could be worked out.

4 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Scott Boras client. He’ll go to free agency. 

Unless he goes crazy,  he's the kind of guy that Scott Boras has seen more and more often sit out the entire winter without a deal.  While he seems OK with the top level guys, that second and third tier isn't as big of a slam dunk.

If he stays healthy, and that is a huge if, the Sox will never get the value Robert would give a good team. I think he would flourish.  Again, I fail to se why any team would throw him a strike right now unless the game is out of hand.

Edited May 5, 2025May 5 by Dick Allen

17 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If he stays healthy, and that is a huge if, the Sox will never get the value Robert would give a good team. I think he would flourish.  Again, I fail to se why any team would throw him a strike right now unless the game is out of hand.

Because currently he has Quero and Vargas around him and they are hitting. Meidroth in front of him is also on base a ton. He rarely comes up with the bases empty. He is also going to steal on your ass. 

Greg775's Bill James quote on lineup protection being non-existent/randomized data comes to mind here.

Maybe it doesn't matter if pitchers believe they have to come in to him more often than last season...

The Cincinatti Reds have entered the chat

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What we thinking, like a MLB top 50 guy and then a couple like back end top 150 types (so an org's 4-6th type)? I'd argue we should be getting as many lotto tickets as possible, who cares how far away anybody is from MLB, just continue to reset with quantity as it has a quality of its own.

Fraley and Steer are a combined -0.2 fWAR and Dunn's still a pretty unknown quantity at the big league level at this point.

24 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

What we thinking, like a MLB top 50 guy and then a couple like back end top 150 types (so an org's 4-6th type)? I'd argue we should be getting as many lotto tickets as possible, who cares how far away anybody is from MLB, just continue to reset with quantity as it has a quality of its own.

Seems about right. I hope it's not the Reds. None of their position players do it for me. But I'd say yeah a top 50ish guy and a fringe 100 guy, and then 1 or 2 lotto tickets.

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

What we thinking, like a MLB top 50 guy and then a couple like back end top 150 types (so an org's 4-6th type)? I'd argue we should be getting as many lotto tickets as possible, who cares how far away anybody is from MLB, just continue to reset with quantity as it has a quality of its own.

Wow, I think you’re going to be very disappointed by the return if this is your line of thinking. The package you mention is close to what the Sox got for Crochet and he was far more valuable.

3 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I mean, their starting CF has a better fWAR than Robert (barely) so I don’t know what this is meant to prove exactly. I don’t know if the O’s are quite ready to sell but if things get much worse for them they certainly will and Credic Mullins will be the hottest CF TDL candidate available as he wouldn’t cost much to acquire and has been a consistent 2+ WAR producer in CF over the past 5 seasons.

40 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Wow, I think you’re going to be very disappointed by the return if this is your line of thinking. The package you mention is close to what the Sox got for Crochet and he was far more valuable.

The Sox got 2 prospects right around 50 (one higher, one slightly lower)..... Plus Miedroth and an interesting SP. These packages don't compare.

6 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

The Sox got 2 prospects right around 50 (one higher, one slightly lower)..... Plus Miedroth and an interesting SP. These packages don't compare.

2 around T50 + 2 more around T200-250 isn’t THAT far off from 1 around T50 + 2 more around T150. Not when the piece going out is Crochet vs Robert whose values are very far apart.

Mullins is on a hot streak now and is a fine defender...but he's worth more to Elias than other teams right now.

If you trade him...you lose way too much on defense behind a terrible pitching staff.

If you wait until June/July...90% chance his offensive mumbers nornalize or maybe he's just on a pre FA hot streak and you roll the dice with keeping him since the offers won't be all that overwhelming anyway based upon his last 2-3 seasons of mostly disappointing offense overall.

 

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Mullins is on a hot streak now and is a fine defender...but he's worth more to Elias than other teams right now.

If you trade him...you lose way too much on defense behind a terrible pitching staff.

If you wait until June/July...90% chance his offensive mumbers nornalize or maybe he's just on a pre FA hot streak and you roll the dice with keeping him since the offers won't be all that overwhelming anyway based upon his last 2-3 seasons of mostly disappointing offense overall.

 

Orioles are 5 games back from a playoff spot and need to pass many teams along the way. It’s only May but if they’re 10+ games back two months from now Elias will have no choice but to sell - Mullins, Sugano, O’Hearn, Mountcastle, Eflin, etc

10 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Orioles are 5 games back from a playoff spot and need to pass many teams along the way. It’s only May but if they’re 10+ games back two months from now Elias will have no choice but to sell - Mullins, Sugano, O’Hearn, Mountcastle, Eflin, etc

Let's see where Mullins and Robert are then.

If Robert looks like 2023 version at that time...those two options years become much more enticing for big market teams.

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

What we thinking, like a MLB top 50 guy and then a couple like back end top 150 types (so an org's 4-6th type)? I'd argue we should be getting as many lotto tickets as possible, who cares how far away anybody is from MLB, just continue to reset with quantity as it has a quality of its own.

Getz approves of this by telling fans to be patient.

It's the proven formula of the habitual losing small market team. The Sox are the midwest Marlins.

We so want to believe this approach works in baseball that we believe in the theory more than the results.

It really comes down to identifying talent at all levels. 

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Let's see where Mullins and Robert are then.

If Robert looks like 2023 version at that time...those two options years become much more enticing for big market teams.

That’s fair but if I can get a steady, consistent player like Mullins for a couple 40/45 FV prospects vs the package noted above for Robert, I’m definitely going with Mullins. Unless, of course, Robert returns to 2023 form, which to me looks like the outlier not the norm at this point.

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I mean, their starting CF has a better fWAR than Robert (barely) so I don’t know what this is meant to prove exactly.

Okay? And Korey Lee has the same fWAR as Robert, so I guess we are assuming these are all just similar caliber players then.

9 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Okay? And Korey Lee has the same fWAR as Robert, so I guess we are assuming these are all just similar caliber players then.

At least Robert and Elly de la Cruz paired together would be a whole lot of fun potentially for Reds/baseball fans.

They obviously know Robert is more talented than TJ Friedl...can he actually live up to it, though?