WhiteSox2023 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 3 hours ago, caulfield12 said: HE has already made a lot more money in his career than you would imagine... About $12 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 7 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: To be fair people trying to be the brightest bulb in the lighthouse declaring nondescript pickups to suck aren't really going out on a limb . Around here going out on a limb is saying I hope that he can give the Sox what they are hoping to get from him even if it seems unlikely from our observation point in the very cheap seats when most are making fun of any transaction and the people making them. No idea what this means. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 4 hours ago, chw42 said: I think Houser's been a bit lucky, but some of the improvements might be real. He gained about 1.5 MPH on his 4 seamer. His spinrates on his sinker and 4 seamer are both up around 100 RPM. Seeing how he throws those like 60% of the time, I can see how it would make a difference. He switched around his slider and curveball usage and is getting much better results because of it (they killed his breaking pitches last year). His expected stats and BABIP all say he's been lucky, but very few pitchers can put up a 1.6 ERA and not be considered lucky. I think he's this year's version of Erick Fedde, just maybe a bit luckier thus far. Hopefully we get more than a Miguel Vargas-type player for him at the deadline. I dont think anyone thinks hes a 1.56 ERA guy but his FIP is 3.12 a s xERA is 3.65. Most importantly though, he pitches deep into games which is a rare commodity these days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Falstaff said: I am confident that Bannister is already eyeing next season's rehab project. There was literally zero time for the Sox to work with and fix houser. Identifying the stuff change that occurred in the offseason was the value here, not developing/changing houser. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 (edited) 7 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Maybe . Not many pitcher who aren't already established as great pitchers can go on a 9 game run of Greg Maddyx type pitching. He's right up there with Skenes, Skubal, Ranger Suarez and Wheeler among the best ERAs in baseball since they got him. We talk about getting better scouting there's examples all around us with Vasil, Shane Smith, Houser, Civale hasn't been bad. Perez got off to a great start before he got hurt. Those are all pretty good finds from the Rule 5 and dealing in season keeping your nose to the grindstone probably hearing Houser had started doing things to get in the best shape of his career as far as diet and exercise and it paid off for him with upticks in velocity ,movement and command. Weren’t Shane Smith’s numbers through mid to late May similar to Houser’s when his ERA was in the low to mid 2’s (at that time)?? Is his falloff simply due to fatigue or overwork compared to past seasons in the Brewers’ system? Can they figure out whether to invest in any of Martin Cannon or Burke…or are they all “what they are” at this point in their development? Trade Martin or Cannon or simply hold? Burke obviously has the best stuff, but… Edited July 10 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falstaff Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: There was literally zero time for the Sox to work with and fix houser. Identifying the stuff change that occurred in the offseason was the value here, not developing/changing houser. Houser timeline: Texas signed Houser in the off season on 12/3/24 and sent him to Round Rock where he was 2-2 with a 5.03 era. Texas then released him on 5/15/25. Sox signed Houser on 5/20/25, with 9 starts he is 5-2 with a 1.56 era Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 9 minutes ago, Falstaff said: Houser timeline: Texas signed Houser in the off season on 12/3/24 and sent him to Round Rock where he was 2-2 with a 5.03 era. Texas then released him on 5/15/25. Sox signed Houser on 5/20/25, with 9 starts he is 5-2 with a 1.56 era Yes, Im aware of his journey. Hence why I said the Sox had no time to actually "fix" houser. Housers change happened in the offseason and they saw the change in stuff quality when scouting him and brought him on. It was a scouting win, but certainly not some mechanical overhaul. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: No idea what this means. Right? Who the f*** cares if people get credit for going out on a limb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy U Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Theoretical Q: How much is too little for Houser? Given his contract and mediocre career track record, I have a hard time believing other teams are going to give up an impact bat for him. Maybe a failed prospect who is out of options a la Vargas. But non-elite position players are essentially worthless. A guy like Dru Baker probably has less future value than cash considerations. I could see getting a pitcher. Because of injury rates and pitching development strides, even the most innocuous trades can bring you a useful guy. Vasil was pretty rough in AAA yet he’s been a contributor. But you ought to be able to draft and develop depth arms. I get that Houser is like 2 mor wins on a team poised to lose 110 games, but I would rather watch him for two months than trade him for some guy who’s just gonna clog up minor league rosters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 19 minutes ago, Timmy U said: Theoretical Q: How much is too little for Houser? Given his contract and mediocre career track record, I have a hard time believing other teams are going to give up an impact bat for him. Maybe a failed prospect who is out of options a la Vargas. But non-elite position players are essentially worthless. A guy like Dru Baker probably has less future value than cash considerations. I could see getting a pitcher. Because of injury rates and pitching development strides, even the most innocuous trades can bring you a useful guy. Vasil was pretty rough in AAA yet he’s been a contributor. But you ought to be able to draft and develop depth arms. I get that Houser is like 2 mor wins on a team poised to lose 110 games, but I would rather watch him for two months than trade him for some guy who’s just gonna clog up minor league rosters. You took the paragraph right out of my mouth. No team is gonna give the Sox anyone special. I would rather extend him, if possible, and watch him pitch next year. There are probably 20 GM's waiting to fleece Getz with someone they don't want. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 7 hours ago, chw42 said: I think Houser's been a bit lucky, but some of the improvements might be real. He gained about 1.5 MPH on his 4 seamer. His spinrates on his sinker and 4 seamer are both up around 100 RPM. Seeing how he throws those like 60% of the time, I can see how it would make a difference. He switched around his slider and curveball usage and is getting much better results because of it (they killed his breaking pitches last year). His expected stats and BABIP all say he's been lucky, but very few pitchers can put up a 1.6 ERA and not be considered lucky. I think he's this year's version of Erick Fedde, just maybe a bit luckier thus far. Hopefully we get more than a Miguel Vargas-type player for him at the deadline. xERA 3.65 FIP 3.12 xFIP 4.03 All are around a run per game better than his history average, but 1.5 to 2.5 runs per game worse than he is doing now. So yes, both lucky and much improved. It will be interested to see if this is real, or if the league adjusts back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 3 hours ago, caulfield12 said: Weren’t Shane Smith’s numbers through mid to late May similar to Houser’s when his ERA was in the low to mid 2’s (at that time)?? Is his falloff simply due to fatigue or overwork compared to past seasons in the Brewers’ system? Can they figure out whether to invest in any of Martin Cannon or Burke…or are they all “what they are” at this point in their development? Trade Martin or Cannon or simply hold? Burke obviously has the best stuff, but… They matched up almost exactly, with a slight advantage to Smith on the K's area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champagne030 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Timmy U said: Theoretical Q: How much is too little for Houser? Given his contract and mediocre career track record, I have a hard time believing other teams are going to give up an impact bat for him. Maybe a failed prospect who is out of options a la Vargas. But non-elite position players are essentially worthless. A guy like Dru Baker probably has less future value than cash considerations. I could see getting a pitcher. Because of injury rates and pitching development strides, even the most innocuous trades can bring you a useful guy. Vasil was pretty rough in AAA yet he’s been a contributor. But you ought to be able to draft and develop depth arms. I get that Houser is like 2 mor wins on a team poised to lose 110 games, but I would rather watch him for two months than trade him for some guy who’s just gonna clog up minor league rosters. I don't think there's anything too little. I agree with the premise, but there's no reason to watch him for the next 2 months. Jerry isn't going to sign him to a Fedde deal and I don't think we should. Houser has done his job and now it's up to Getz (and staff) to find someone they think can be fixed/developed. I haven't scoured all the systems, but the Phillies keep coming up as a match for Robert and I keep thinking package Robert/cash/Houser for Burkholder. Maybe that's just a pipe dream for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Houser matched up with a reliever or Robert is an interesting thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, oldsox said: You took the paragraph right out of my mouth. No team is gonna give the Sox anyone special. I would rather extend him, if possible, and watch him pitch next year. There are probably 20 GM's waiting to fleece Getz with someone they don't want. There is no reason that this team should be handing high dollar contracts to 32 year old starting pitchers at this stage of the rebuild. There will almost certainly be a trade offer worthy of sending him off that benefits the long term future of this team provided he doesn't get injured or fall of the face of the earth over his next 1-2 starts before a trade. If he isn't traded, and he keeps this up all year, he can hit the market as a 32 year old starting pitcher coming off a 6+ bWAR season and would easily get paid more than whatever the Sox would offer in an extension. For this team right now Adrian Houser is what you are looking for, a veteran having a smash season that you got for nothing that can be flipped to help solidify the future. We aren't contending anytime soon, his only purpose for the White Sox is to help make the roster better when they WILL be contending. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 I’d probably be willing to go 3/$60M on an extension with Houser, but not sure he’d take that at the moment as he could be leaving some serious money on the table by not reaching free agency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d probably be willing to go 3/$60M on an extension with Houser, but not sure he’d take that at the moment as he could be leaving some serious money on the table by not reaching free agency. Holy crap that's wild, you would extend this guy $20M a year based off 9 starts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peanut33tillman Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 5 hours ago, Timmy U said: Theoretical Q: How much is too little for Houser? Given his contract and mediocre career track record, I have a hard time believing other teams are going to give up an impact bat for him. Maybe a failed prospect who is out of options a la Vargas. But non-elite position players are essentially worthless. A guy like Dru Baker probably has less future value than cash considerations. I could see getting a pitcher. Because of injury rates and pitching development strides, even the most innocuous trades can bring you a useful guy. Vasil was pretty rough in AAA yet he’s been a contributor. But you ought to be able to draft and develop depth arms. I get that Houser is like 2 mor wins on a team poised to lose 110 games, but I would rather watch him for two months than trade him for some guy who’s just gonna clog up minor league rosters. I have maintained the same realistic thinking imo that he can get you somewhere around a Top 200-250 type prospect. Seen some T100 talk from fans but I don’t see that at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 22 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d probably be willing to go 3/$60M on an extension with Houser, but not sure he’d take that at the moment as he could be leaving some serious money on the table by not reaching free agency. This doesn't make sense but over and above that JR wouldn't allow it right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d probably be willing to go 3/$60M on an extension with Houser, but not sure he’d take that at the moment as he could be leaving some serious money on the table by not reaching free agency. I don't think I would put a real wager out there for it, but I would be blown away if someone offers this guy a 3/60 at his age, and complete lack of historic success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d probably be willing to go 3/$60M on an extension with Houser, but not sure he’d take that at the moment as he could be leaving some serious money on the table by not reaching free agency. I would think that maybe Houser would be getting 1/7, or 2/15 on the market this offseason. I have no gauge on this, tho, and didn't post this very thought yesterday for that reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 10 minutes ago, WestEddy said: I would think that maybe Houser would be getting 1/7, or 2/15 on the market this offseason. I have no gauge on this, tho, and didn't post this very thought yesterday for that reason. Something that takes the original Fedde 2/15 deal and maybe adds a bit to it isn't a bad thought. Obviously I think we all want to see if he turns into a pumpkin and regresses to his career norms, or even to his expected outcomes for this year, but something in the 2/20 to 2/25 range might be an interesting starting point with the history he has behind him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 22 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said: This doesn't make sense but over and above that JR wouldn't allow it right now. He has approved 3 year deals for pitchers. However, if they really want to do that, trade and sign him in the off season. I dont think he would be worth it in the long run. Especially with all the pitchers they have coming off injuries next year that they will need to find room for. You can never have enough pitching, but they also need to consider value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d probably be willing to go 3/$60M on an extension with Houser, but not sure he’d take that at the moment as he could be leaving some serious money on the table by not reaching free agency. That’s crazy, and yes he would accept that offer immediately for under 10 good starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: I’d probably be willing to go 3/$60M on an extension with Houser, but not sure he’d take that at the moment as he could be leaving some serious money on the table by not reaching free agency. Others have said that's crazy so I'm not going to pile on too much, but I'll present it in a little different way. Adrian Houser has been incredible for the Sox, basically a 3 WAR pitcher in 9 starts. Can't deny what he's done. Removing those 9 starts (57 innings), Houser has pitched 608 ML innings, holds a career 4.21 ERA and has a total WAR of 2.7 in his career. So in 57 innings with the White Sox, he's put up a higher WAR than his previous 608 ML innings. So with that in mind, along with him being 32 years old and being on his third team in three years..doesn't the historical evidence tell you the odds of him keeping this up seem incredibly slim? Wouldn't this be buying on him at just his absolute high point? Do you expect Houser to get better than this? And how comfortable are you paying a 35 year old Adrian Houser 20 million in 2028? Adrian Houser, to me, given where this team is at in their "rebuild" is the most clear cut, obvious trade candidate that I can remember. All of the evidence says he's not the guy you make an investment in. It's incredible what he's done and I hope he keeps it up. And maybe he's fantastic the next few years, it's possible. But he's literally pitching at a HoF level right now, I would not be comfortable paying him at that level based on the totality of data we have on Adrian Houser. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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