Robert Thread: Sox talking to Reds, Mets

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I think part of it is that they want the headache that is Robert gone regardless.  They have been burned by him too many times.  Either way, moving him will free up money.

Yeah, I don't know if it's conditioning or whatnot, but I think Getz just wants to move on from that era, which is fine.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I think part of it is that they want the headache that is Robert gone regardless.  They have been burned by him too many times.  Either way, moving him will free up money.

I could see them wanting to move on from Robert if they believe he’s unable to stay healthy, but I don’t think they need to shed his salary to fit Murakami into the budget.

[SoCalChiSox]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why?

It seems likely that they still have a topline restrictive budget number that they have to stay under. 

If they could hypothetically trade Robert (even if they eat some money) for Petty and a lotto ticket or something, they could wash out most of the Murakami cost and add a SP who is basically for free money wise and theoretically they could still have some money left for a FA SP too.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

It seems likely that they still have a topline restrictive budget number that they have to stay under. 

If they could hypothetically trade Robert (even if they eat some money) for Petty and a lotto ticket or something, they could wash out most of the Murakami cost and add a SP who is basically for free money wise and theoretically they could still have some money left for a FA SP too.

This. They weren’t planning on doing much, if any spending. Murakami fell into their laps and it was a good opportunity to get a potential power hitting star at their price. 

[almagest]

9 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

This. They weren’t planning on doing much, if any spending. Murakami fell into their laps and it was a good opportunity to get a potential power hitting star at their price. 

I know he has a lot of concerns about swing and miss, but I still can't believe the White Sox signed the two time NPB MVP who hit 56 homers in a season during a deadball era to play first base and bat left handed. 

[almagest]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I could see them wanting to move on from Robert if they believe he’s unable to stay healthy, but I don’t think they need to shed his salary to fit Murakami into the budget.

They shouldn't need to. But who knows with how this franchise is being run right now.

[Chicago White Sox]

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff.  Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency.  A $90M payroll is literally nothing.  We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild).  And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars.

Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll.  I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt.  No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff.  Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency.  A $90M payroll is literally nothing.  We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild).  And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars.

Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll.  I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt.  No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

So if the old story about how no one every took their gains was actually true, the fact they had nine figures in debt means those gains are long gone.

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff.  Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency.  A $90M payroll is literally nothing.  We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild).  And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars.

Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll.  I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt.  No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

Yeah, O'Hearn was a much reported target and that was when he probably looked like 2/$20M. Then a starting pitcher, then a high-leverage arm. This has all been leaked/reported. 

[fathom]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff.  Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency.  A $90M payroll is literally nothing.  We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild).  And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars.

Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll.  I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt.  No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

I hope you’re right, but the internal belief in the organization was that the payroll would be quite low.  I have no idea what to expect now.

[WestEddy]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I hope you’re right, but the internal belief in the organization was that the payroll would be quite low.  I have no idea what to expect now.

The company line changed over time. Getz started out down-playing expectations but then started moving towards saying they would add through free agency, and they would be aggressive in their pursuits. Not talking $150M, but definitely more than $60M.

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff.  Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency.  A $90M payroll is literally nothing.  We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild).  And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars.

Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll.  I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt.  No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

There's a big difference between "should" and what JR allows to happen as you know. 

From what you mentioned previously, I thought you said we were around 61m currently IIRC, so if you add 17m for Murakami and 4.5m for the reliever we just added, we're already around 82-83m, so as you can see we are already getting close to your 90m budget number without addressing SP at all or the BP further.

If they move Robert for Petty and eat say 8m of the 20m, we have hit two birds with one stone by going down to around 70m and adding a cash cheap SP with still significant ammo to land another SP and maybe have room for the Houston CF salary if they trade Cannon for him. 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

I hope you’re right, but the internal belief in the organization was that the payroll would be quite low.  I have no idea what to expect now.

$90M is super low is my point.  I feel very confident that last year was the worst case scenario in terms of payroll given the recent losses and lack of a TV deal to enter the season.  And last year we were at about $80M.  I think the plan was always to go up some this year without taking on huge long-term dollars.  I feel good about the $90M figure being a reasonable, but still conservative figure that protects Jerry’s bottom line in a rebuild year.

[Princess Dye]

when Getz responds: "Do we love Luis Robert? Yes, we absolutely love Luis Robert"

the way he nervously restates the question and then answers it sounds almost like i'm talking about i'm talking about my house, to my friends. if i'm talking to my family about our house it's going to be a very different phrasing

[WestEddy]

1 minute ago, Princess Dye said:

when Getz responds: "Do we love Luis Robert? Yes, we absolutely love Luis Robert"

the way he nervously restates the question and then answers it sounds almost like i'm talking about i'm talking about my house, to my friends. if i'm talking to my family about our house it's going to be a very different phrasing

Loves, as a Christian loves his fellow man. 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

$90M is super low is my point.  I feel very confident that last year was the worst case scenario in terms of payroll given the recent losses and lack of a TV deal to enter the season.  And last year we were at about $80M.  I think the plan was always to go up some this year without taking on huge long-term dollars.  I feel good about the $90M figure being a reasonable, but still conservative figure that protects Jerry’s bottom line in a rebuild year.

The effect of not having a TV contract last year is not going to help this year.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

There's a big difference between "should" and what JR allows to happen as you know. 

From what you mentioned previously, I thought you said we were around 61m currently IIRC, so if you add 17m for Murakami and 4.5m for the reliever we just added, we're already around 82-83m, so as you can see we are already getting close to your 90m budget number without addressing SP at all or the BP further.

If they move Robert for Petty and eat say 8m of the 20m, we have hit two birds with one stone by going down to around 70m and adding a cash cheap SP with still significant ammo to land another SP and maybe have room for the Houston CF salary if they trade Cannon for him. 

If we want to trade Robert and redeploy those dollars elsewhere, that’s a totally different matter.  I’m just saying I very much doubt that we’d need to move him to afford Murakami’s salary.  And yes, I have us right around $84M right now, so another $6M or so to work with to get to that floor.

Edited 2 hours ago by Chicago White Sox

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

The effect of not having a TV contract last year is not going to help this year.

Why?

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why?

Because either they took the lost last year and need to pay it off, or last year sets the next season's payroll, which has always been the Sox MO.  They add or subtract based on what the previous season looks like.  This franchise took a mid tens of millions dollars worth of a haircut during the season for their historic revenues on their TV contract, and it also going to affect continuing revenues as it is going to smaller than the previous one going forward.

[DirtySox]

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I do get the vibe the Sox are eager to move Robert.  The Reds seem far more likely to me than the Mets at the moment because Cincinnati is going to have to take on some trade risk to land potential impact talent.  I do kind of like the idea of Robert & cash for Petty and their Comp B pick.  Maybe that’s too much of a return, but I’d love to have Bannister get his hands on Petty while adding another $1M or so to our total draft pool next year.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because either they took the lost last year and need to pay it off, or last year sets the next season's payroll, which has always been the Sox MO.  They add or subtract based on what the previous season looks like.  This franchise took a mid tens of millions dollars worth of a haircut during the season for their historic revenues on their TV contract, and it also going to affect continuing revenues as it is going to smaller than the previous one going forward.

I’m certain they would have called down their payroll last year given the lack of a TV deal.  I don’t disagree with you that they usually last year’s revenue as the starting point for the following season, but it’s not one for one and last year was a very unique situation.  As such, any full season TV deal this year is going to be better than last year’s contribution.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m certain they would have called down their payroll last year given the lack of a TV deal.  I don’t disagree with you that they usually last year’s revenue as the starting point for the following season, but it’s not one for one and last year was a very unique situation.  As such, any full season TV deal this year is going to be better than last year’s contribution.

That depends on how far the new TV deal fell, and how much of last year they expected to happen.  If it fell by half-ish, they are in the same situation going forward, as they were last year.  Knowing the hit the team is going to take from dropping tiers on Comcast alone is a pretty big red flag for them going forward.

Unless Ish is writing checks for both the hundred million in debt, the losses for last year, and more players this year, I think expecting a significantly bigger payroll in 2025 is at best a wait and see.  I definitely wouldn't assume it.

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That depends on how far the new TV deal fell, and how much of last year they expected to happen.  If it fell by half-ish, they are in the same situation going forward, as they were last year.  Knowing the hit the team is going to take from dropping tiers on Comcast alone is a pretty big red flag for them going forward.

Unless Ish is writing checks for both the hundred million in debt, the losses for last year, and more players this year, I think expecting a significantly bigger payroll in 2025 is at best a wait and see.  I definitely wouldn't assume it.

We have no idea that they last money lost year.  They purposely cut payroll to an all time low since 2001 (inflation adjusted) to accommodate most of these factors.  They may have lost some money, but no way to know for sure or to what extent.

Edited 1 hour ago by Chicago White Sox

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We have no idea that they last money lost year.  They purposely cut payroll to an all time low since 2001 (inflation adjusted) to accommodate most of these factors.  They may have lost some money, but no way to know for sure or to what extent.

They have been cutting because of previous season losses for years now.  There is nothing to say that they had previously cut enough either.