OD 26 Man Roster Projection

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 2/23/2026 at 12:20 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Spring training outcomes making people crazy. 

Define crazy.Fegan predicted 77 wins. Does he strike you as crazy ? 

By the way isnt this the kind of thing we're trying to avoid on Soxtalk ? 

If you disagree with people make an argument. Quote multiple posts that you think are crazy. Is trying to establish confidence in young players by building confidence you have the talent to win and you're not that far away crazy ? 

This is what coaches do, at least the good ones. Why is it crazy for fans to do it too ? You try not to put limitations on progress.

Edited Wednesday at 05:36 PM by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[GreenSox]

On 2/23/2026 at 12:20 PM, caulfield12 said:

If he was a Cardinal prospect that came out of virtually nowhere...wasn't highly touted or drafted highly and had that utility label ceiling placed upon him from the very beginning, sure.

They had that track record of production for decades.

Or the Rays, for example.  Masters of squeezing surplus value out of the Baldwin profile.

 

With the White Sox, he's going to have to prove it.

He's also going to have to beat out Kelenic/Pereira and also demonstrate at least IMPROVING defense in RF.

 

 

 

Yes, that's a concern of mine...giving Baldwin (and/or others) away to the Rays, while we keep the players that the Rays and others have been unable to squeeze value out of.  I'd prefer not to have the older guys around at all, so as not to tempt.  The older guys should be here for the purpose of trading in July (and not for more org guys, please).

As for wins, last year the Marlins won 79, with a 72 win Pythagorean.  The Sox won 60, a 15+ game improvement from 2024, with a Pythagorean of 71.  77 or even 82 wins isn't inconceivable.  But players will have to show progress and this is the time to let them show it (or not).  Baldwin, Sosa,  Vargas, Cannon, Burke...it's "this is it" time or close to it.

Edited Wednesday at 05:38 PM by GreenSox

[WestEddy]

22 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Yes, that's a concern of mine...giving Baldwin (and/or others) away to the Rays, while we keep the players that the Rays and others have been unable to squeeze value out of.  I'd prefer not to have the older guys around at all, so as not to tempt.  The older guys should be here for the purpose of trading in July (and not for more org guys, please).

As for wins, last year the Marlins won 79, with a 72 win Pythagorean.  The Sox won 60, a 15+ game improvement from 2024, with a Pythagorean of 71.  77 or even 82 wins isn't inconceivable.  But players will have to show progress and this is the time to let them show it (or not).  Baldwin, Sosa,  Vargas, Cannon, Burke...it's "this is it" time or close to it.

I think Caulfield was saying that he would have more confidence in Baldwin developing if he was a Cardinals' or Rays' prospect, not that he thinks Baldwin should be traded. 

I agree with you on your win totals, though. I feel my prediction would top out around 78 wins, but yeah, 82 wouldn't surprise me. 

[WestEddy]

LaMond Pope clocks in on the rotation battle:

Mike Vasil: Versatile Chicago White Sox pitcher eyes rotation spot

Quote

“We’re not making any decisions here on these first couple (outings), want to let these guys get their feet wet,” manager Will Venable said before Monday’s game. “But it’s nice to be out there competing and seeing these guys.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

57 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Define crazy.Fegan predicted 77 wins. Does he strike you as crazy ? 

By the way isnt this the kind of thing we're trying to avoid on Soxtalk ? 

If you disagree with people make an argument. Quote multiple posts that you think are crazy. Is trying to establish confidence in young players by building confidence you have the talent to win and you're not that far away crazy ? 

This is what coaches do, at least the good ones. Why is it crazy for fans to do it too ? You try not to put limitations on progress.

1. James Fegan works with the White Sox, and his career literally benefits from team interest. Not saying he's lying, but he's certainly bias as he swims through the White Sox sea of shitty propaganda.

2. No idea what that means.

3. Is that what you're doing here? Instilling confidence in young players by speaking nice about them on an internet message board? Interesting concept. Fathom should be ashamed of himself for all that negativity he's voodoo'ed into players heads with his posts!

4. I'm not limiting anything. Sox have a bottom 4 projection in baseball, and probably a 1% chance or less of being .500. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

49 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Yes, that's a concern of mine...giving Baldwin (and/or others) away to the Rays, while we keep the players that the Rays and others have been unable to squeeze value out of.  I'd prefer not to have the older guys around at all, so as not to tempt.  The older guys should be here for the purpose of trading in July (and not for more org guys, please).

As for wins, last year the Marlins won 79, with a 72 win Pythagorean.  The Sox won 60, a 15+ game improvement from 2024, with a Pythagorean of 71.  77 or even 82 wins isn't inconceivable.  But players will have to show progress and this is the time to let them show it (or not).  Baldwin, Sosa,  Vargas, Cannon, Burke...it's "this is it" time or close to it.

The Marlins position group last year was 18th and their pitching 25th. It would be a very large leap forward for the White Sox position player group to get up into that area this year. The real issue is the White Sox weren't just worse offensively, but they were much worse defensively and on the bases. So say they make up the 8-10 points in wRC+ with full season of some better production in April/May, they'd also need to make a large jump forward defensively and on the bases.

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it's why that 79 win barometer feels pretty out of reach with the current roster.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

Yes, that's a concern of mine...giving Baldwin (and/or others) away to the Rays, while we keep the players that the Rays and others have been unable to squeeze value out of.  I'd prefer not to have the older guys around at all, so as not to tempt.  The older guys should be here for the purpose of trading in July (and not for more org guys, please).

As for wins, last year the Marlins won 79, with a 72 win Pythagorean.  The Sox won 60, a 15+ game improvement from 2024, with a Pythagorean of 71.  77 or even 82 wins isn't inconceivable.  But players will have to show progress and this is the time to let them show it (or not).  Baldwin, Sosa,  Vargas, Cannon, Burke...it's "this is it" time or close to it.

Cannon likely starts in AAA.

Him or Burke, unless they cut Fedde before OD.

 

Definitely is it for Acuna.

And then you have Mead, too.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The Marlins position group last year was 18th and their pitching 25th. It would be a very large leap forward for the White Sox position player group to get up into that area this year. The real issue is the White Sox weren't just worse offensively, but they were much worse defensively and on the bases. So say they make up the 8-10 points in wRC+ with full season of some better production in April/May, they'd also need to make a large jump forward defensively and on the bases.

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it's why that 79 win barometer feels pretty out of reach with the current roster.

Baserunning partly comes down to Acuna being an everyday player and getting 140 starts.

And Baldwin has yet to show the consistent ability to utilize his speed, at least so far.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

33 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Baserunning partly comes down to Acuna being an everyday player and getting 140 starts.

And Baldwin has yet to show the consistent ability to utilize his speed, at least so far.

Acuna replaces Robert, so it's basically a wash there.

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Acuna replaces Robert, so it's basically a wash there.

Hopefully, available more which makes it a plus.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Hopefully, available more which makes it a plus.

Yeah, I am a believer in Acuna the CF'er. That said, I'm not sure i believe he's Luis Robert good out there, yet. So still probably pretty close but the ceiling with those games played is so much higher.

[caulfield12]

51 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, I am a believer in Acuna the CF'er. That said, I'm not sure i believe he's Luis Robert good out there, yet. So still probably pretty close but the ceiling with those games played is so much higher.

He's going to have to cover a lot of ground surrounded by Benintendi Hays and Baldwin (unless he makes a huge jump in his reads/routes).

[tray]

46 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

He's going to have to cover a lot of ground surrounded by Benintendi Hays and Baldwin (unless he makes a huge jump in his reads/routes).

Which is another reason I will be psyched to see Braden in RF. He's better defensively  in RF than any other option the White Sox have right now.  And he's going to hit with power.

I am impatient,watching talented athletes have to go through the grind of mastering every successive level of the minor league hierarchy before being promoted. If the best predictions by the experts have the Sox finishing with a 90+ loss season, what difference will it having a few blokes serve as placeholders? 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, tray said:

Which is another reason I will be psyched to see Braden in RF. He's better defensively  in RF than any other option the White Sox have right now.  And he's going to hit with power.

I am impatient,watching talented athletes have to go through the grind of mastering every successive level of the minor league hierarchy before being promoted. If the best predictions by the experts have the Sox finishing with a 90+ loss season, what difference will it having a few blokes serve as placeholders? 

It doesn't matter, except for those pushing the optimistic 75-81 win scenario one season too early...

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It doesn't matter, except for those pushing the optimistic 75-81 win scenario one season too early...

I have no idea what you're talking about except to take a whack at a guess of 75+ wins, which is certainly with the realm of possibility. 

You say yourself that Braden Montgomery isn't ready. So without Acuña, Baldwin and Pereira, who plays the other 2 OF positions? Peters? Dru Baker? They're also "place-holders" until guys like Bonemer, Antonacci and B. Montgomery push them out. 

[caulfield12]

42 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I have no idea what you're talking about except to take a whack at a guess of 75+ wins, which is certainly with the realm of possibility. 

You say yourself that Braden Montgomery isn't ready. So without Acuña, Baldwin and Pereira, who plays the other 2 OF positions? Peters? Dru Baker? They're also "place-holders" until guys like Bonemer, Antonacci and B. Montgomery push them out. 

How many wins did you predict coming into 2025?

For all intents and purposes, the only projected members (as of today) of the White Sox for 2028 are Colson, Teel/Quero (one of two) and maybe/likely/hopefully Braden/Antonacci and Bonemer.

(Might as well throw Cholowsky/Lebron in there too.)

The rest is totally up in the air.

Even the assumption by a majority that Colson will hit 25-35 homers is a bit presumptuous at this point.

Edited yesterday at 02:38 AM by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Knock on wood seems like we are as healthy as we've been as an org to start camp in a few years. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

1. James Fegan works with the White Sox, and his career literally benefits from team interest. Not saying he's lying, but he's certainly bias as he swims through the White Sox sea of shitty propaganda.

2. No idea what that means.

3. Is that what you're doing here? Instilling confidence in young players by speaking nice about them on an internet message board? Interesting concept. Fathom should be ashamed of himself for all that negativity he's voodoo'ed into players heads with his posts!

4. I'm not limiting anything. Sox have a bottom 4 projection in baseball, and probably a 1% chance or less of being .500. 

I assumed you were aware that actually calling a certain group of people crazy or cult like for optimistic viewpoints is generally frowned upon .But since your head seems to be planted firmly in the sand your ignorance  is understandable.

It had calmed down lately but apparently you dont have a filter and cant read the room. 

Tell me what your prediction is then.Let other have a crack at you . I noticed last year in the predicted wins thread when most people took the normal route of making a prediction before any games where played  you waited until the season was half over before you could commit to being on record. 

Apparently being optimistic lacks brainpower and everyone just buys into Sox propaganda and  you can separate the wheat from the chaffe. You have expressed this opinion before.

So please just give your opinion before the season starts this time. There's plenty of betting lines out there and WAR estimates of wins that range from 64.5 to 74.

There's also Pythagorean models that had the Sox at 71 wins last year . So they underperformed last year by 11 games. That usually indicates regression to the mean which would be a much better record the following year .

Being optimistic and encouraging is a choice of how you treat people. There are times in life especially when raising children or coaching that it's your job to nurture , encourage and teach that confidence and belief in yourself and your team mates means something. Winning means something. A lot of these players were a part of the Birmingham Barons 2 consecutive Championships. Winning breeds winning.

That optimists are sheep talk would be dangerous if you were in political office. Are you part of an elite ruling class that knows better than most ? Your baseball acumen and people skills aren't that impressive . 

 

 

 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

It has a lot of flaws (mostly the author would readily admit tbf) but ZIPS has exactly one WS and pitcher in the top 100 of projected fWAR: Teal at 2.6 (98th), Smith at 2.1 (59th).

There just isn't much bankable talent on the roster. There's some good promising young talent, but it probably adds up to around 65-75 wins this season. 77 seems a bridge way too far, even as an error bar imo. Assume  the young position players gain 10 WAR as a group, that's still around 75 with our pitching. 

If we win 75 on the backs of the kids I'll give Getz a parade honestly.

Edited yesterday at 03:21 AM by chitownsportsfan

[WestEddy]

37 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

How many wins did you predict coming into 2025?

For all intents and purposes, the only projected members (as of today) of the White Sox for 2028 are Colson, Teel/Quero (one of two) and maybe/likely/hopefully Braden/Antonacci and Bonemer.

(Might as well throw Cholowsky/Lebron in there too.)

The rest is totally up in the air.

Even the assumption by a majority that Colson will hit 25-35 homers is a bit presumptuous at this point.

1) 54 in the prediction thread, and 60 in the bold predictions thread. We both picked the 53-56 slot in the poll I'm linking.
2) Who cares who will be on the team in 2028? That's you trying to obscure the subject. I've laid out my thinking on why I think this is around a 75 win team many times. It is optimistic. But again, it's certainly well within a reasonable spread of possible, expected outcomes. 
3) Any talk about any future event or outcome is presumptuous. You calling something presumptuous is itself, presumptuous. 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

33 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Knock on wood seems like we are as healthy as we've been as an org to start camp in a few years. 

And that's just physical health. 

They are trying to foster a culture of trusting each other to be brothers in arms . 

Basically you have to buy into a certain mentality of comaraderie and belief in the talent around you and that your coaches have your best interests in heart and more help is coming. But that isn't anything new in sports . 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It has a lot of flaws (mostly the author would readily admit tbf) but ZIPS has exactly one WS and pitcher in the top 100 of projected fWAR: Teal at 2.6 (98th), Smith at 2.1 (59th).

There just isn't much bankable talent on the roster. There's some good promising young talent, but it probably adds up to around 65-75 wins this season. 77 seems a bridge way too far, even as an error bar imo. Assume  the young position players gain 10 WAR as a group, that's still around 75 with our pitching. 

If we win 75 on the backs of the kids I'll give Getz a parade honestly.

All fair . Will that be a literal parade or a parade in your head  ? 

I think Venable and his staff would deserve a lot of credit too . 

 I must admit I do like a lot of the young talent and the culture they have built so far. It just fits with my own personal beliefs on how to instill confidence in young people. If you quit before you allow yourself time to grow you throw away your opportunity to become more than you think you are.  Ugly duckling , caterpillar to butterfly and all that. Those stories to teach lessons about personal growth have been around for ages. 

[caulfield12]

1) You need the pen to go from Bottom 3 to middle of the pack.

Maybe you can get there, 75% of pens are going to be inconsistent/unpredictable from year to year.

On paper, vets like Hicks Newcomb and Dominguez should be better than Leasure/Taylor.

2) Much better fielding.

Where does that come from?  Acuna over Robert is a net neutral, less Sosa on the field? Baldwin improvement?

3) Baserunning...

4) Execution/fundamentals

 

The US men's hockey team "brotherhood" doesn't develop without success, which means finishing over .500 at the very least.

But almost every single expert has said they won't compete until 2027/28.

We can bring up 1977, 1983, 1990, 2000, 2008 comps until everyone is blue in the face...but eventually results will matter.

 

Edited yesterday at 04:11 AM by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I assumed you were aware that actually calling a certain group of people crazy or cult like for optimistic viewpoints is generally frowned upon .But since your head seems to be planted firmly in the sand your ignorance  is understandable.

It had calmed down lately but apparently you dont have a filter and cant read the room. 

Tell me what your prediction is then.Let other have a crack at you . I noticed last year in the predicted wins thread when most people took the normal route of making a prediction before any games where played  you waited until the season was half over before you could commit to being on record. 

Apparently being optimistic lacks brainpower and everyone just buys into Sox propaganda and  you can separate the wheat from the chaffe. You have expressed this opinion before.

So please just give your opinion before the season starts this time. There's plenty of betting lines out there and WAR estimates of wins that range from 64.5 to 74.

There's also Pythagorean models that had the Sox at 71 wins last year . So they underperformed last year by 11 games. That usually indicates regression to the mean which would be a much better record the following year .

Being optimistic and encouraging is a choice of how you treat people. There are times in life especially when raising children or coaching that it's your job to nurture , encourage and teach that confidence and belief in yourself and your team mates means something. Winning means something. A lot of these players were a part of the Birmingham Barons 2 consecutive Championships. Winning breeds winning.

That optimists are sheep talk would be dangerous if you were in political office. Are you part of an elite ruling class that knows better than most ? Your baseball acumen and people skills aren't that impressive . 

 

 

 

 

Now you've done it.

Well, this should be an interesting response.  If you in fact receive one.

Kudos for the extra feelings/emotions thrown in at the end.

Something between defenestration and evisceration is coming.

 

If you want to go back to your political analogy, selling hope/change/optimism tends to be better received.  It's basic human nature.

Even liberals can read Atlas Shrugged and be halfway convinced.

Unfortunately there's no John Galt fighting on behalf of the White Sox.

[WestEddy]

17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

1) You need the pen to go from Bottom 3 to middle of the pack.

Maybe you can get there, 75% of pens are going to be inconsistent/unpredictable from year to year.

On paper, vets like Hicks Newcomb and Dominguez should be better than Leasure/Taylor.

2) Much better fielding.

Where does that come from?  Acuna over Robert is a net neutral, less Sosa on the field? Baldwin improvement?

3) Baserunning...

4) Execution/fundamentals

 

The US men's hockey team "brotherhood" doesn't develop without success, which means finishing over .500 at the very least.

But almost every single expert has said they won't compete until 2027/28.

We can bring up 1977, 1983, 1990, 2000, 2008 comps until everyone is blue in the face...but eventually results will matter.

 

2) Murakami should be better than Vaughn. C. Monty for a full year. Less Sosa/Benintendi. Pereira/Acuña are good defensive OFs. Growth from Meidroth, Vargas, Teel, Quero. 

brotherhood

So teams that finish under .500 never become close or learn how to play together? I'm not sure who you're responding to, here, but predicting 75-78 wins isn't "competitive".